Oregon at Wisconsin - 2024 Matchup Preview
Oregon logo Oregon Ducks at Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (7:30 PM EST)
Oregon -13.5 (49.5) (-535)  Open: -11.0
Oregon 16 - Wisconsin: 13  (Big Ten)

 
Ducks (13 - 1) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Dan Lanning (22 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 19 (34 - 11 on Road)
Record Prediction: 13 - 1 (#3)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
WIS coming off BYE
ORE is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Oregon -19.5   (SP+ ORE -23)

Projected Score: ORE: 34 - WIS: 14 (50)
ORE Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
ORE Travel: 1675 miles, 2 hrs behind
Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (21 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
 
Oregon's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Oregon vs Idaho-36.5
Sat 9/7 Oregon vs Boise State-17.560.5W 37 - 34ON
Sat 9/14 Oregon at Oregon State-16.050.0W 49 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Oregon at UCLA-23.554.5W 34 - 13UN
Fri 10/4 Oregon vs Michigan State-22.553.0W 31 - 10UN
Sat 10/12 Oregon vs Ohio State+3.554.5W 32 - 31OY
Fri 10/18 Oregon at Purdue-30.061.0W 35 - 0UY
Sat 10/26 Oregon vs Illinois-22.554.0W 38 - 9UY
Sat 11/2 Oregon at Michigan-14.545.5W 38 - 17OY
Sat 11/9 Oregon vs Maryland-24.058.0W 39 - 18UN
Sat 11/16 Oregon at Wisconsin-13.549.5W 16 - 13UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/30 Oregon vs Washington-17.550.5W 49 - 21OY
Sat 12/7 Oregon vs Penn State-3.551.5W 45 - 37OY
Wed 1/1 Oregon vs Ohio State+2.555.5L 21 - 41ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 4, Bad 2, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 3, Bad: 2, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Wisconsin vs Western Michigan-24.057.0W 28 - 14UN
Sat 9/7 Wisconsin vs South Dakota-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/14 Wisconsin vs Alabama+15.551.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Wisconsin at USC+14.050.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/5 Wisconsin vs Purdue-12.044.5W 52 - 6OY
Sat 10/12 Wisconsin at Rutgers+1.043.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.542.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin vs Penn State+6.547.0L 13 - 28UN
Sat 11/2 Wisconsin at Iowa+2.540.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Wisconsin vs Oregon+13.549.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Wisconsin at Nebraska+1.540.5L 25 - 44ON
Fri 11/29 Wisconsin vs Minnesota+1.540.5L 7 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE#2 (.49)57% (1)34.957% (2)3.69 (4)17157% (1)3185.11 (1)#19 (.1)38% (30)19.439% (35)39% (27)3.33 (24)59.10.51.1
WIS#84 (.16)44% (50)22.650% (15)3.52 (7)15138% (100)1914.02 (55)#17 (.1)40% (47)23.140% (41)42% (72)2.98 (13)44.21.21.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ORE0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
WIS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Offense1434.934.456.9%5.110.5244901713185.944%56%57%57%9%.49
WIS Defense1323.120.440.4%2.981.2 - - - - - 51%48%40%42%17%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ORE Defense1419.411.438.4%3.331.1 - - - - - 39%59%39%39%17%.1
WIS Offense1322.621.443.6%4.021.2183421511914.747%52%50%38%15%.16

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Oregon1428:3124.451%74%6.559.10.51.14.82.4129.5
Wisconsin1326:5318.345%28%5.144.21.21.25.82.2129.2
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Offense1444% (107)57% (2)29.1171.45.932 (10).37 (2)3.69 (4)78% (32)6% (3)1.05 (37)
WIS Defense1351% (78)40% (41) - - - - .09 (38)3.06 (57)64% (20)11% (42)0.96 (44)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ORE Defense1439% (2)39% (35) - - - - .08 (32)3.08 (60)55% (6)9% (96)0.97 (54)
WIS Offense1347% (92)50% (15)32.3151.34.721 (54).22 (31)3.52 (7)74% (67)8% (26)0.89 (116)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Offense1456% (22)57% (1)2633.7318.39.412.244 (1)5 (6).59 (3)1.5 (112)24% (3)43% (3).73 (2)3% (4)2 (70)
WIS Defense1348% (51)42% (72) - - - - - - 12 (37).19 (21)1.4 (15)32% (63)28% (36).27 (43)6% (61)2 (51)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ORE Defense1459% (132)39% (27) - - - - - - 11 (53).16 (16)1.5 (45)32% (70)30% (60).33 (78)8% (13)2 (45)
WIS Offense1352% (41)38% (100)19.533191.15.89.811 (117)5 (6).13 (116)1.4 (132)30% (34)34% (42).28 (85)7% (106)1.7 (132)

Oregon's Power Ratings
Oregon's Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Oregon's Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Oregon's Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
2024 Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Oregon's 2024 Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0
Oregon's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Oregon's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Oregon's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 25.40   Wisconsin: 6.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon: 26.0   Wisconsin: 3.0




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 842.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Oregon Scoring
Offense: 34.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.4
Defense: 19.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 11.4

Oregon's 2024 Record
Record: 13 - 1
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Oregon 34
Wisconsin 14


Projected Total Points: 50
Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Wisconsin13Oregon16OregonOregon -13.5Wisconsin49.5Under
201901/01Wisconsin27Oregon28OregonWisconsin -3Oregon53.0Over
201101/02Oregon45Wisconsin38Oregon
200109/01Oregon31Wisconsin28Oregon
200009/08Wisconsin27Oregon23Wisconsin
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin111 Overs
Oregon411 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 21 - 10 - 11 - 0
Road Teams2 - 31 - 10 - 11 - 0

(#2) Oregon Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 25.40 #2
Offense Rating: 29.52 #4
Defense Rating: 4.01 #19
Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Offense SP+ Rating: 40.8 #2
Defense SP+ Rating: 16.3 #14
Talent Rating: 1068.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 54% #8
Expected Record: 13.0 - 1.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Great Offense Success Rate of 51%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.68 PPO
Great Run Success 51%
Great Pass Success 50%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Good Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.68 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Great Pass Def Success 34%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Oregon Notes
(11/4) Tez Johnson inj (Mich), out weeks, not year
(10/27) Rgame mauled Illinois, 229 yds, 5.9 ypc in blowout
(10/19) Rgame bad vs Purdue, Run Def bad, still shutout
(10/12) Off torched Ohio St. Gabriel/Rgame great
(9/14) Dominanted Beavs. 240 yds rushing, Gabriel good
(9/9) OL & DL are a big issue, outgained by Boise but won
(9/1) Run game a big ? after 2.9 YPC vs Idaho.
(8/4) Gabriel perfect for Off, can lines play B1G ball?
(8/4) Lots of travel weeks 7-11, 3 MW/cold trips
(7/30) Portal QBs Gabriel(UCF)/Moore(UCLA), WR Stewart
Oregon     Ratings Matchup     Wisconsin
Power #2
#45
Off #4
#67
Def #19
#73
Talent #4
#24
SP+ #3
#60
SP+ Off #2
#100
SP+ Def #14
#22

Rematch from Week 12
Oregon 13.5 (49.5)
Oregon won at Wisconsin this year (16-13)

Previous Matchups
Oregon beat Wisconsin last year (16-13)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 48° - Wind: 15 mph


Team Information
Injuries: ORE | WIS
Depth Chart: ORE | WIS
Rosters: ORE | WIS
(#45) Wisconsin Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22
Talent Rating: 842.00 #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Wisconsin Notes
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games


  
Oregon's OC Will Stein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)32644773%38573068.6
Dante Moore (Tr)7888%49006.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Whittington11854064.628
Dillon Gabriel (Tr)7514972.054
Da'Jaun Riggs118217.524
Jayden Limar257102.811
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Evan Stewart (Tr)48613512.869
Kenyon Sadiq24308212.839
Justius Lowe2120319.734
Noah Whittington2413625.718

View Oregon's Full Roster
Oregon's DC Tosh Lupoi
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bryce Boettcher877204
Kobe Savage (Tr)573001
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Matayo Uiagalelei3711961
Teitum Tuioti538631
Derrick Harmon (Tr)43115102
Bryce Boettcher877204
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabbar Muhammad (Tr)3810010
Brandon Johnson (Tr)425115
Bryce Boettcher877204

Wisconsin's OC Phil Longo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braedyn Locke16429655%193613106.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)190864104.555
Darrion Dupree7931714.032
Cade Yacamelli3327428.345
Dilin Jones168805.547
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mark Hamper43869520.274
Vinny Anthony39672417.263
Will Pauling4240739.728
Trech Kekahuna25339213.669

View Wisconsin's Full Roster
Wisconsin's DC Mike Tressel
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro665301
Preston Zachman583004
Jaheim Thomas (Tr)532100
Austin Brown512103
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Christian Alliegro665301
Elijah Hills (Tr)266321
John Pius (Tr)214330
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)122200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ben Barten220015
Preston Zachman583004
Ricardo Hallman160004