Tulsa at North Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at North Texas Mean Green

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -7 (65.5) (-258) Open: -7.0
North Texas 52 - Tulsa: 20 (American Athletic)

Golden Hurricane (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kevin Wilson (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (19 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

TLSA 2nd straight Road Game
UNT 2nd straight Home Game
UNT is playing their 5th straight game
TLSA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: North Texas -19 (SP+ UNT -16)
Projected Score: TLSA: 22 - UNT: 41 (63)
UNT Win prob: 70% | Cover: 49%
TLSA Travel: 215 miles

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TLSA Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulsa's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Tulsa vs Northwestern State	-37.5	55.5	W 62 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/7	Tulsa at Arkansas State	+9.5	65.5	L 24 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Tulsa vs Oklahoma State	+17.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/21	Tulsa at Louisiana Tech	+3.0	56.5	W 23 - 20	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Tulsa at North Texas	+7.0	65.5	L 20 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/5	Tulsa vs Army	+13.5	50.5	L 7 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Tulsa at Temple	+3.5	51.5	L 10 - 20	U	N
Sat 10/26	Tulsa vs UTSA	+9.5	52.5	W 46 - 45	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Tulsa at UAB	+2.5	57.5	L 21 - 59	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/14	Tulsa vs East Carolina	+16.0	63.5	L 31 - 38	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Tulsa at South Florida	+17.5	60.0	L 30 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/30	Tulsa vs Florida Atlantic	+2.5	57.5	L 16 - 63	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulsa's Schedule

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA	#77 (.18)	41% (83)	23.2	40% (99)	3.16 (59)	181	44% (50)	205	4.23 (34)	#120 (.29)	44% (96)	28.9	43% (67)	46% (121)	3.95 (82)	43.3	2	1.7
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	45.1	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	26.5	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TLSA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Offense	12	23.2	19	41%	4.23	2	20	386	181	205	4.1	57%	41%	40%	44%	17%	.18
UNT Defense	12	26.5	22	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TLSA Defense	12	28.9	30.7	43.9%	3.95	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	51%	43%	46%	14%	.29
UNT Offense	12	45.1	45.7	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulsa	12	29:42	19.8	45%	44%	5.1	43.3	2	1.7	5.4	1.8	0	28.1
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Offense	12	57% (16)	40% (99)	43.9	180.9	4.1	13 (108)	.1 (96)	3.16 (59)	79% (27)	11% (87)	0.88 (120)
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TLSA Defense	12	47% (37)	43% (67)	-	-	-	-	.21 (107)	3.18 (89)	67% (30)	10% (74)	1.13 (115)
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Offense	12	41% (118)	44% (50)	15.8	27.8	204.7	7.4	12.9	20 (70)	19 (131)	.36 (37)	1.8 (13)	34% (95)	32% (57)	.33 (68)	6% (73)	2.1 (66)
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TLSA Defense	12	51% (89)	46% (121)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.43 (124)	1.7 (100)	30% (103)	29% (43)	.41 (111)	5% (113)	2.6 (133)
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)

Tulsa's Power Ratings
Tulsa's Power Rating: -26.23 #132
Tulsa's Offense Rating: 11.18 #125
Tulsa's Defense Rating: 19.20 #127
2024 Talent Rating: 253.00 #94
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Tulsa's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Tulsa's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -20.6 #128
Tulsa's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.2 #105
Tulsa's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -26.23 North Texas: -4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulsa: -20.6 North Texas: -4.5

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -4.3 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 285.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Tulsa Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 28.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.7

Tulsa's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 41
Tulsa 22

Projected Total Points: 63

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	North Texas	52	Tulsa	20	North Texas -7	North Texas	65.5	Over
2023	11/18	Tulsa	28	North Texas	35	North Texas -1.5	North Texas	69.5	Under
2013	11/30	Tulsa	10	North Texas	42	North Texas -3	North Texas	0
2011	10/01	Tulsa	41	North Texas	24
2008	09/06	North Texas	26	Tulsa	56
2006	09/16	Tulsa	28	North Texas	3
2005	09/17	North Texas	2	Tulsa	54

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	3	3	1 Overs
Tulsa	4	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 0	0 - 2
Road Teams	4 - 3	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 1

(#132) TLSA at (#98) UNT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TLSA	UNT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#132	#98
SP+SP+	#128	#89
Perf GradeGrade	#133	#105
OffenseOff	#118	#99
DefenseDef	#133	#101
Spec TeamsST	#119	#64
TalentTal	#94	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	#82	#102

Tulsa Notes(12/8) Hired HC Tre Lamb (ETSU/Gar Web)
(11/24) HC Wilson fired, WR coach Ryan Switzer in
(11/4) Wilson is 3-10 in AAC play, 7-14 overall
(11/3) Killed by UAB? Def torched 400+ pass? Run awful
(10/28) Down 35-7, season saving comeback vs UTSA
(10/20) L to Temple after Bye? QB meh, Rgame abysmal
(10/20) Pass D torched by Temple for 300+, QBs awful
(10/20) Not sure what plan is or level of give a shit
(9/25) Even with LT, 13 flags killers, forced 3 TOs in OT W
(7/30) New QB Francis got PT LY, backups better upside
(7/30) Def was awful LY, returns little, need portal adds
(7/30) Is HC Wilson still a prick? OC is Spurrier Jr.
Tulsa Injury Report

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Tulsa on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#118	#101
SuccessSuc	#83	#131
ExplosiveExp	#77	#81
PPAPPA	#77	#132
PowerPwr	#125	#105
SP+SP+	#105	#121
Pts POPPO	#34	#130
HavocHav	#87	#132

Tulsa Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#105	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#99	#129
Run ExplRExp	#120	#120
PPAExp	#96	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#122	-
OL YdsOLY	#59	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#22	#107
TackleTak	-	#54

Tulsa Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	TLSA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#112	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#50	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#13	#62
PPAExp	#37	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#121	#123
F7 HavocF7	#87	#133
DB HavocDB	#73	#118

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#133
SuccessSuc	#42	#96
ExplosiveExp	#5	#123
PPAPPA	#28	#120
PowerPwr	#70	#127
SP+SP+	#27	#129
Pts POPPO	#28	#82
HavocHav	#86	#108

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
Run GameRun	#30	#108
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#67
Run ExplRExp	#1	#115
PPAExp	#7	#107
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#89
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#69
TackleTak	-	#130

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TLSA Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#136
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#121
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#100
PPAExp	#63	#124
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	#44
F7 HavocF7	#71	#74
DB HavocDB	#96	#113

Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

TLSA 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
North Texas -7.0 (65.5)
North Texas won vs Tulsa this year (52-20)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Tulsa in 2024 (52-20)
North Texas beat Tulsa in 2023 (35-28)

TLSA's OC Steve Spurrier Jr. (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kirk Francis	149	253	59%	1585	9	6	6.3
Cooper Legas (Tr)	87	162	54%	1144	12	6	7.1

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Watkins	87	402	4	4.6	77
Viron Ellison Jr.	62	353	1	5.7	32
Bill Jackson	67	319	0	4.8	37
Lloyd Avant	76	259	1	3.4	16

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kamdyn Benjamin	70	822	6	11.7	74
Joseph Williams	30	588	5	19.6	72
Luke Mcgary	17	231	1	13.6	32
Zion Steptoe (Tr)	15	203	0	13.5	34

View Tulsa's Full Roster

TLSA's DC Chris Polizzi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Gavin Potter (Tr)	75	11	1	4	0
Dayne Hodge	60	1	0	0	3
Malachi Jones	49	0	0	0	3
Zach Marcheselli (Tr)	47	10	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
R.J. Jackson	35	4	3	0	2
Owen Ostroski	35	8	2	4	0
Vontroy Malone	25	5	2	1	0
Myles Jackson (Tr)	36	6	2	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Keuan Parker	20	0	4
Buddha Garrett	38	1	3
Dayne Hodge	60	1	3

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3