North Texas at South Alabama - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, August 31st 2024 (5:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -6.0 (61.5) (-210) Open: -6.0 | 64.5
North Texas 52 - South Alabama: 38

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: South Alabama -9 (SP+ USA -7)
Projected Score: UNT: 27 - USA: 36 (63)
USA Win prob: 66% | Cover: 50%
UNT Travel: 677 miles

Jaguars (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Major Applewhite (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

South Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	South Alabama vs North Texas	-6.0	61.5	L 38 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/7	South Alabama at Ohio	-1.5	55.5	L 20 - 27	U	N
Thu 9/12	South Alabama vs Northwestern State	-36.5	60.5	W 87 - 10	O	Y
Thu 9/19	South Alabama at App State	+8.0	62.5	W 48 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/28	South Alabama at LSU	+21.0	64.5	L 10 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/5	South Alabama at Arkansas State	-2.5	62.5	L 16 - 18	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/15	South Alabama vs Troy	-10.0	53.0	W 25 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/26	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-7.0	45.0	W 46 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/2	South Alabama vs Georgia Southern	-5.5	60.0	L 30 - 34	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	South Alabama at Louisiana	+6.5	60.0	W 24 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/23	South Alabama at Southern Miss	-24.0	54.0	W 35 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/29	South Alabama vs Texas State	+2.5	60.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 12/14	South Alabama vs Western Michigan	-6.0	53.5	W 30 - 23	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	45.1	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	26.5	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2
USA	#31 (.28)	43% (57)	26.5	42% (80)	3.24 (44)	172	45% (35)	268	4.67 (15)	#34 (.14)	37% (17)	30.4	35% (8)	40% (44)	3.32 (21)	57.7	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	12	45.1	43.7	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28
USA Defense	13	30.4	28.8	36.6%	3.32	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	35%	40%	16%	.14

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	12	26.5	28.3	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34
USA Offense	13	26.5	27.8	43%	4.67	1.5	23	440	172	268	4.8	48%	51%	42%	45%	15%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6
South Alabama	13	30:30	22.6	43%	63%	6.7	57.7	1.5	1.7	5.8	2	0	31.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)
USA Defense	13	54% (116)	35% (8)	-	-	-	-	-.01 (12)	2.69 (14)	74% (74)	11% (33)	0.9 (27)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)
USA Offense	13	48% (81)	42% (80)	36	171.9	4.8	28 (25)	.18 (49)	3.24 (44)	74% (71)	10% (76)	1.18 (6)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)
USA Defense	13	45% (19)	40% (44)	-	-	-	-	-	-	13 (26)	.36 (109)	1.8 (124)	36% (12)	27% (29)	.28 (47)	5% (106)	2.2 (104)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)
USA Offense	13	51% (55)	45% (35)	22.4	32.9	268.2	8.1	12	28 (23)	11 (68)	.41 (26)	1.7 (34)	34% (104)	39% (8)	.59 (7)	5% (27)	2.2 (34)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 285.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 South Alabama: 2.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 South Alabama: 2.8

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 2.08 #76
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 25.69 #16
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 10.70 #78
2024 Talent Rating: 251.00 #95
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
South Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #61
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.9 #47
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.9 #71

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 235.21
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 36
North Texas 27

Projected Total Points: 63

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	North Texas	36	South Alabama	22	North Texas -13.5	North Texas	63.5	Under
2024	08/31	South Alabama	38	North Texas	52	South Alabama -6.0	North Texas	61.5	Over
2012	11/10	North Texas	24	South Alabama	14

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	0	0	1 Overs
North Texas	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#98) UNT at (#76) USA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	USA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#98	#76
SP+SP+	#89	#61
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#59
OffenseOff	#99	#61
DefenseDef	#101	#65
Spec TeamsST	#64	#111
TalentTal	#81	#95
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

South Alabama Notes(12/15) Rgame 267/7.2 ypc in bowl W over WMU
(12/15) Great QB depth, backup Davenport can run/throw
(11/29) Def torched, gave up 3 TOs, OG'd by 160 by T St
(11/25) Rgame good, Lopez 3 TD over awful So Miss
(11/18) Huge W @ ULL, QB good, Def barely held on
(11/3) 450+ yds but 2 TOs cost badly in GaSo loss
(10/27) Rgame great (ULM), 358 yds, 7.8 ypc. Run D bad
(10/16) Avg 17 ppg last 3 games, stopped Troy, NBD
(10/4) Off great, Def v bad. High totals keep going under
(9/19) QB Lopez dynamic, FR RB Bothwell is a weapon
(9/8) QB Lopez (toe) DNP in L at Ohio
(9/8) Bad Ls vs N Tex & Ohio. QBs OK, D bad so far
South Alabama Injury Report

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	USA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#65
SuccessSuc	#42	#17
ExplosiveExp	#5	#98
PPAPPA	#28	#34
PowerPwr	#70	#78
SP+SP+	#27	#71
Pts POPPO	#28	#21
HavocHav	#86	#65

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#30	#45
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#8
Run ExplRExp	#1	#27
PPAExp	#7	#12
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#14
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#52
TackleTak	-	#118

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#50
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#44
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#124
PPAExp	#63	#109
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#109
F7 HavocF7	#71	#33
DB HavocDB	#96	#106

South Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UNT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#61	#101
SuccessSuc	#57	#131
ExplosiveExp	#6	#81
PPAPPA	#31	#132
PowerPwr	#16	#105
SP+SP+	#47	#121
Pts POPPO	#15	#130
HavocHav	#61	#132

South Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#3	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#80	#129
Run ExplRExp	#6	#120
PPAExp	#49	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#119	-
OL YdsOLY	#44	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#107
TackleTak	-	#54

South Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	USA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#84	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#35	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#34	#62
PPAExp	#26	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#39	#123
F7 HavocF7	#76	#133
DB HavocDB	#27	#118

Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'24 Profile: Remains Top G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
South Alabama -6.0 (61.5)
North Texas won at South Alabama this year (52-38)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat South Alabama last year (36-22)
North Texas beat South Alabama in 2024 (52-38)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3

USA's OC Rob Ezell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Giovanni Lopez	205	311	66%	2557	18	5	8.2
Bishop Davenport	48	79	61%	604	3	1	7.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Fluff Bothwell	112	834	13	7.4	59
Kentrel Bullock	152	832	7	5.5	59
Giovanni Lopez	82	465	7	5.7	50
Bishop Davenport	37	161	1	4.4	50

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jamaal Pritchett	91	1126	9	12.4	75
Jeremiah Webb	36	649	5	18.0	52
Devin Voisin	34	407	0	12.0	28
Shamar Sandgren	19	208	1	10.9	21

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Will Windham (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Blayne Myrick	101	8	2	3	2
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4
Jordan Scruggs	70	5	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Courtney McBride	39	11	5	3	0
Parker Shattuck	11	3	3	0	1
Tyler Thomas	19	4	3	0	0
Jordan Norman	25	4	3	2	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Amarion Fortenberry	43	2	0	0	6
Jaden Voisin	84	4	0	3	5
Darius McKenzie (Tr)	72	4	1	0	4