North Texas at Memphis - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at Memphis Tigers

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Memphis -10.5 (67.5) (-395) Open: -12.5
Memphis 52 - North Texas: 44 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (44 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNT 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Memphis -18 (SP+ MEM -14)
Projected Score: UNT: 24 - MEM: 42 (66)
MEM Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
UNT Travel: 431 miles

Tigers (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (31 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (34 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
MEM Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Memphis's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Memphis vs North Alabama	-38.5	62.5	W 40 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Memphis vs Troy	-18.5	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Memphis at Florida State	+7.0	52.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Memphis at Navy	-9.5	47.0	L 44 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/28	Memphis vs Middle Tennessee	-27.0	62.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Memphis vs South Florida	-10.0	61.0	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Memphis vs North Texas	-10.5	67.5	W 52 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Memphis vs Charlotte	-17.0	56.5	W 33 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/2	Memphis at UTSA	-7.0	62.0	L 36 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/8	Memphis vs Rice	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/16	Memphis vs UAB	-16.0	62.0	W 53 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Memphis at Tulane	+12.5	54.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Tue 12/17	Memphis vs West Virginia	-5.0	60.0	W 42 - 37	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	45.1	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	26.5	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2
MEM	#18 (.3)	47% (23)	32.5	47% (33)	2.96 (98)	152	47% (22)	306	4.6 (16)	#82 (.2)	44% (90)	23.2	44% (82)	44% (103)	4.12 (99)	41.2	1.2	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	12	45.1	43.7	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28
MEM Defense	13	23.2	24.2	43.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	44%	16%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	12	26.5	28.3	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34
MEM Offense	13	32.5	34.2	46.6%	4.6	1.2	23	458	152	306	4.6	43%	57%	47%	47%	13%	.3

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6
Memphis	13	31:08	22.7	45%	64%	4.1	41.2	1.2	1.5	5.1	1.6	3	31.2

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)
MEM Defense	13	49% (56)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	2.98 (46)	62% (15)	9% (92)	1.08 (105)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)
MEM Offense	13	43% (111)	47% (33)	33	152	4.6	31 (17)	.17 (57)	2.96 (98)	66% (117)	8% (25)	1.03 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)
MEM Defense	13	50% (78)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (75)	1.7 (88)	30% (112)	32% (93)	.3 (65)	7% (38)	2.2 (99)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)
MEM Offense	13	57% (19)	47% (22)	24.7	37	306.5	8.3	12.4	33 (11)	10 (56)	.42 (22)	1.6 (50)	27% (8)	39% (7)	.62 (5)	6% (49)	2.2 (23)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 285.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 Memphis: 11.26

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 Memphis: 9.6

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 11.26 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Memphis's Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
2024 Talent Rating: 334.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Memphis's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Memphis's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 43.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.3

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 42
North Texas 24

Projected Total Points: 66

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 34.2
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Memphis's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Memphis	52	North Texas	44	Memphis -10.5	North Texas	67.5	Over
2023	10/28	North Texas	42	Memphis	45	Memphis -6.5	North Texas	70.0	Over
2022	09/24	Memphis	44	North Texas	34	Memphis -13	North Texas	68.5	Over
2003	12/16	North Texas	17	Memphis	27

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Memphis	4	0	3 Overs
North Texas	0	3	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 2	2 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 0

(#98) UNT at (#36) MEM

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	MEM
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#98	#36
SP+SP+	#89	#31
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#37
OffenseOff	#99	#23
DefenseDef	#101	#67
Spec TeamsST	#64	#66
TalentTal	#81	#63
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Memphis Notes(12/18) Dumb, poorly coached football team
(12/17) DC Jordon Hankins makes zero adjustments
(11/28) Buried Tulane. Hennigan/Rgame good, R D great
(11/18) Off balanced and torched UAB. Still alive in AAC
(11/3) Def torched by UTSA, Henigan great/Rgame awful
(10/20) Def torched by N. Tex, Off was great esp Rgame
(10/13) Def stuff S Fla, 24 rush yds, 1.3 ypc. Off enough
(9/23) Huge L @ Navy. Had 660 yds in L, All. 361 Ryds
(9/15) Big W @ FSU. Henigan good, Run Def great
(8/13) Def should improve w/ P5 portals in (starters in P5)
(8/13) QB Henigan (10K yds), WR's are G5 best & freaks
(8/3) Fav'd in every game but FSU. USF/UTSA bigs
Memphis Injury Report

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	MEM Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#67
SuccessSuc	#42	#90
ExplosiveExp	#5	#108
PPAPPA	#28	#82
PowerPwr	#70	#61
SP+SP+	#27	#80
Pts POPPO	#28	#99
HavocHav	#86	#66

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#30	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#82
Run ExplRExp	#1	#105
PPAExp	#7	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#24
TackleTak	-	#100

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#88
PPAExp	#63	#75
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#119
F7 HavocF7	#71	#92
DB HavocDB	#96	#38

Memphis on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	UNT Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#101
SuccessSuc	#23	#131
ExplosiveExp	#18	#81
PPAPPA	#18	#132
PowerPwr	#29	#105
SP+SP+	#12	#121
Pts POPPO	#16	#130
HavocHav	#23	#132

Memphis Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#29	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#129
Run ExplRExp	#52	#120
PPAExp	#57	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#98	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#107
TackleTak	-	#54

Memphis Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#22	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#62
PPAExp	#22	#115
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#9	#123
F7 HavocF7	#25	#133
DB HavocDB	#49	#118

Program Comparison
MEM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Memphis -10.5 (67.5)
Memphis won vs North Texas this year (52-44)

Previous Matchups
Memphis beat North Texas in 2024 (52-44)
Memphis beat North Texas in 2023 (45-42)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	309	477	65%	3502	25	6	7.3
Harris Boyd	1	1	100%	14	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Anderson (Tr)	236	1362	18	5.8	53
Brandon Thomas	57	335	9	5.9	57
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46
Seth Henigan	80	190	1	2.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	66	950	2	14.4	48
DeMeer Blankumsee	45	677	6	15.0	89
Kobe Drake	39	484	1	12.4	29
Anthony Landphere	33	379	4	11.5	31

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Matt Hudson (Tr)	60	4	1	1	0
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
William Whitlow Jr.	24	8	5	3	1
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davion Ross	51	2	0	2	11
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6