North Texas at Texas Tech - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at Texas Tech Red Raiders(#21)

Saturday, September 14th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Texas Tech -10.5 (70.5) (-360) Open: -11.5 | 68.5
Texas Tech 66 - North Texas: 21

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (35 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 14.9 MPH
Our Line: Texas Tech -12.5 (SP+ TTU -9)
Projected Score: UNT: 31 - TTU: 44 (75)
TTU Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
UNT Travel: 273 miles

Red Raiders (8 - 5) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Joey McGuire (15 - 11)
Avg Score : 38 - 35 (44 - 36 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
TTU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Texas Tech's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Texas Tech vs Abilene Christian	-34.5	58.5	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 9/7	Texas Tech at Washington State	-2.5	64.5	L 16 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/14	Texas Tech vs North Texas	-10.5	70.5	W 66 - 21	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Texas Tech vs Arizona State	-4.5	58.5	W 30 - 22	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Texas Tech vs Cincinnati	-3.0	60.0	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	Texas Tech at Arizona	+6.0	64.0	W 28 - 22	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Texas Tech vs Baylor	-4.5	56.0	L 35 - 59	O	N
Sat 10/26	Texas Tech at TCU	+5.0	66.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/2	Texas Tech at Iowa State	+13.5	55.0	W 23 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Texas Tech vs Colorado	+5.0	62.0	L 27 - 41	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Texas Tech at Oklahoma State	-5.0	63.5	W 56 - 48	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Texas Tech vs West Virginia	-2.5	61.5	W 52 - 15	O	Y
Fri 12/27	Texas Tech vs Arkansas	-3.5	52.5	L 26 - 39	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)	33.5	40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)	34.2	47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)	37.6	45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)	34.8	44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
TTU	#33 (.25)	44% (50)		45% (49)	3.17 (45)	150	43% (51)	275	4.73 (7)	#104 (.23)	44% (93)		44% (76)	44% (101)	3.97 (83)	59.4	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	13	33.5	34.8	42.5%	3.91	1.5	22	451	153	298	5.6	38%	62%	40%	44%	15%	.23
TTU Defense	13	34.8	35.7	43.6%	3.97	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	44%	44%	13%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	13	34.2	43	44.3%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	47%	42%	11%	.22
TTU Offense	13	37.6	43.7	44.2%	4.73	1.5	23	425	150	275	4.5	45%	55%	45%	43%	14%	.25

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	13	25:05	22.1	36%	48%	6.3	52.5	1.5	1.1	4.5	1.7	1	28.4
Texas Tech	13	27:50	22.8	49%	52%	7	59.4	1.5	1.6	4.6	1.5	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	13	38% (129)	40% (109)	27.6	153.2	5.6	22 (55)	.17 (44)	2.75 (111)	58% (128)	9% (51)	1.25 (4)
TTU Defense	13	45% (16)	44% (76)	-	-	-	-	.12 (69)	2.75 (30)	62% (14)	8% (108)	1.08 (111)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	13	54% (105)	47% (106)	-	-	-	-	.19 (102)	3.29 (111)	75% (74)	7% (128)	0.96 (54)
TTU Offense	13	45% (104)	45% (49)	33.2	149.6	4.5	24 (45)	.17 (46)	3.17 (45)	72% (81)	8% (38)	1.05 (42)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	13	62% (6)	44% (39)	25.2	39.8	298	7.5	11.9	31 (6)	12 (85)	.26 (64)	1.6 (60)	33% (88)	34% (35)	.35 (64)	6% (71)	2 (93)
TTU Defense	13	54% (120)	44% (101)	-	-	-	-	-	-	14 (23)	.33 (108)	1.7 (106)	31% (91)	36% (120)	.45 (116)	4% (124)	2.1 (94)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	13	46% (26)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (98)	1.7 (94)	31% (90)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	4% (128)	2.1 (93)
TTU Offense	13	55% (27)	43% (51)	24.3	38.6	275.4	7.1	11.3	30 (9)	9 (48)	.31 (44)	1.6 (77)	32% (81)	34% (39)	.39 (45)	6% (66)	2 (89)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 Texas Tech: 5.695

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 Texas Tech: 4.3

Texas Tech's Power Ratings
Texas Tech's Power Rating: 5.695 #55
Texas Tech's Offense Rating: 22.17 #49
Texas Tech's Defense Rating: 13.59 #99
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #33
Texas Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.3 #54
Texas Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.5 #25
Texas Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.8 #95

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.8
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 43

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Texas Tech 44
North Texas 31

Total Points: 75

Based on Last 4 Games
North Texas 47
Texas Tech 37

Total Points: 84

Based on Entire Season
Texas Tech 40
North Texas 35

Total Points: 75

Texas Tech Scoring
Offense: 37.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 43.7
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 35.7

Texas Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/14	Texas Tech	66	North Texas	21	Texas Tech -10.5	Texas Tech	70.5	Over
2001	09/22	North Texas	14	Texas Tech	42
2000	09/08	Texas Tech	13	North Texas	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Texas Tech	3	1	1 Overs
North Texas	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1

(#98) UNT at (#55) TTU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	TTU
Power RatePwr	#98	#55
SP+SP+	#89	#54
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#84
OffenseOff	#99	#40
DefenseDef	#101	#122
Spec TeamsST	#64	#24
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#33

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Texas Tech Notes(12/5) Hired Tex St OC Mack Leftwich
(11/23) Morton torched bad Pokes. Pass Def was awful
(11/13) 10-0 lead gone vs CU, Rgame bad, Morton OK
(11/2) Big W @ ISU, still had 10 flags, 2 TOs, outgained
(10/30) QB Morton to start vs Iowa State
(10/30) Gagged 31-14 lead vs TCU, backup QB TOs cost
(10/27) QB Morton inj, Fr Hammond took over vs TCU
(10/19) Typical Tech, killed by Baylor. Shit coach/team
(10/7) 3 big W's. Morton is hot, Pass & Run game decent
(9/23) QB Morton meh, Def better in W vs ASU
(9/8) D allowed 301 yds rushing vs Wazzu. 4 TOs. Woof
(9/1) Def Awful, Abl Chris 506 yds passing, 51 pts in OT W,
Texas Tech Injury Report

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TTU Def
Perf GradePerf	#99	#122
SuccessSuc	#70	#93
ExplosiveExp	#4	#120
PPAPPA	#45	#104
PowerPwr	#70	#99
SP+SP+	#27	#95
Pts POPPO	#69	#83
HavocHav	#47	#123

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TTU Def
Run GameRun	#30	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#76
Run ExplRExp	#4	#111
PPAExp	#44	#69
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#35
TackleTak	-	#133

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TTU Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#127
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#101
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#106
PPAExp	#64	#108
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#108
F7 HavocF7	#51	#108
DB HavocDB	#71	#124

Texas Tech on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	UNT Def
Perf GradePerf	#40	#101
SuccessSuc	#50	#98
ExplosiveExp	#40	#62
PPAPPA	#33	#98
PowerPwr	#49	#105
SP+SP+	#25	#121
Pts POPPO	#7	#93
HavocHav	#36	#133

Texas Tech Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#46	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#49	#106
Run ExplRExp	#42	#54
PPAExp	#46	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#51	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#51	#116
TackleTak	-	#54

Texas Tech Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	TTU Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#34	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#51	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#94
PPAExp	#44	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#24	#123
F7 HavocF7	#38	#128
DB HavocDB	#66	#128

Program Comparison
TTU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Jones AT&T Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 88° - Wind: 15 mph

Rematch from Week 3
Texas Tech -10.5 (70.5)
Texas Tech won vs North Texas this year (66-21)

Previous Matchups
Texas Tech beat North Texas last year (66-21)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3

TTU's OC Zach Kittley (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Behren Morton	293	463	63%	3300	27	8	7.1
Will Hammond	15	23	65%	191	1	0	8.3

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tahj Brooks	286	1505	17	5.3	40
Cameron Dickey	25	150	1	6.0	37
J'Koby Williams	26	113	1	4.3	13
Cameran Brown (Tr)	8	83	0	10.4	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josh Kelly (Tr)	89	1023	5	11.5	41
Caleb Douglas (Tr)	55	765	6	13.9	57
Coy Eakin	45	605	6	13.4	70
Jalin Conyers (Tr)	25	271	5	10.8	36

View Texas Tech's Full Roster

TTU's DC Tim DeRuyter (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Ben Roberts	74	5	0	4	0
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
Terrell Tilmon	8	4	4	0	0
Isaac Smith	31	4	3	1	0
Harvey Dyson III	10	3	2	4	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maurion Horn	46	2	0	1	4
Jacob Rodriguez	104	9	5	4	3
C.J. Baskerville	60	3	0	0	3