Stephen F. Austin at North Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at North Texas Mean Green

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
North Texas -21.5 (72.5) (-1600) Open: -23.5 | 67.5
North Texas 35 - Stephen F. Austin: 20

Lumberjacks (0 - 1) (1 - 0 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 0 - 27 (0 - 27 on Road)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ UNT -5)
UNT Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SFA Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Stephen F. Austin's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/7	Stephen F. Austin at North Texas	+21.5	72.5	L 20 - 35	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Stephen F. Austin's Schedule

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SFA		0%	0	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	27	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	45.1	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	26.5	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SFA Offense	1	0	0	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNT Defense	12	26.5	22	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SFA Defense	1	27	27	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
UNT Offense	12	45.1	45.7	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Stephen F. Austin	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SFA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SFA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SFA Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SFA Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)

Stephen F. Austin's Power Ratings
Stephen F. Austin's Power Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Offense Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Defense Rating: NR
2024 Talent Rating: NR
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Stephen F. Austin's 2024 Expected Record: -
Stephen F. Austin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Stephen F. Austin's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Western Athletic Talent Rating is 196.23
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin: North Texas: -4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Stephen F. Austin: North Texas: -4.5

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -4.3 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 285.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Stephen F. Austin Scoring
Offense: 0 PPG
Offense on Road: 0
Defense: 27 PPG
Defense on Road: 27

Stephen F. Austin's 2024 Record
Record: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 1
Record on Road: 0 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 36
Stephen F. Austin 12

Projected Total Points: 48

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	North Texas	35	Stephen F. Austin	20	North Texas -21.5	Stephen F. Austin	72.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	1	0	0 Overs
Stephen F. Austin	0	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0

(#) SFA at (#98) UNT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SFA	UNT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	#98
SP+SP+	NR	#89
Perf GradeGrade	NR	#105
OffenseOff	NR	#99
DefenseDef	NR	#101
Spec TeamsST	NR	#64
TalentTal	NR	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	#102

Stephen F. Austin Injury Report

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Stephen F. Austin on Offense


CategoryCat	SFA Off	UNT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	#101
SuccessSuc	NR	#131
ExplosiveExp	NR	#81
PPAPPA	NR	#132
PowerPwr	NR	#105
SP+SP+	NR	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	#130
HavocHav	NR	#132

Stephen F. Austin Run Game


CategoryCat	SFA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	NR	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#129
Run ExplRExp	NR	#120
PPAExp	NR	#132
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#129
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#107
TackleTak	-	#54

Stephen F. Austin Pass Game


CategoryCat	SFA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	NR	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#120
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#62
PPAExp	NR	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	#123
F7 HavocF7	NR	#133
DB HavocDB	NR	#118

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	SFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	NR
SuccessSuc	#42	NR
ExplosiveExp	#5	NR
PPAPPA	#28	NR
PowerPwr	#70	NR
SP+SP+	#27	NR
Pts POPPO	#28	NR
HavocHav	#86	NR

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	SFA Def
Run GameRun	#30	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	NR
Run ExplRExp	#1	NR
PPAExp	#7	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#60	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	SFA Def
Pass GamePass	#35	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#43	NR
PPAExp	#63	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	NR
F7 HavocF7	#71	NR
DB HavocDB	#96	NR

Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

SFA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
North Texas -21.5 (72.5)
North Texas won vs Stephen F. Austin this year (35-20)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Stephen F. Austin in 2024 (35-20)

SFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Stephen F. Austin's Full Roster

SFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Jeremiah Walker	6	1	1
Trashawn Adams	6	1	0
Aaron Sears	6	1	0
Josiah Cotton	4	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermaine Brown	4	1	1	0	0
Tony Anyanwu (Tr)	2	1	1	1	0
Victor Idusuyi	3	1	1	0	0
Jeremiah Walker	6	1	0	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jeremiah Walker	6	1	1
Elijah Fields	2	0	1
Tim Muhammad	1	0	1

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3