North Texas at UTSA - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at UTSA Roadrunners

Friday, November 15th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
UTSA -1 (73.0) (-118) Open: -2.0
UTSA 48 - North Texas: 27 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (35 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Game in Dome
UTSA coming off BYE
Our Line: UTSA -8 (SP+ UTSA -7)
Projected Score: UNT: 32 - UTSA: 40 (72)
UTSA Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNT Travel: 273 miles

Roadrunners (7 - 6) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jeff Traylor (39 - 14)
Avg Score : 33 - 30 (43 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
UTSA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

UTSA's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UTSA vs Kennesaw State	-24.0	49.5	W 28 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/7	UTSA at Texas State	+2.5	58.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/14	UTSA at Texas	+36.5	56.5	L 7 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/21	UTSA vs Houston Christian	-35.5	54.5	W 45 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/28	UTSA at East Carolina	+2.0	53.5	L 20 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	UTSA at Rice	-3.5	51.0	L 27 - 29	O	N
Sat 10/19	UTSA vs Florida Atlantic	-4.0	52.5	W 38 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/26	UTSA at Tulsa	-9.5	52.5	L 45 - 46	O	N
Sat 11/2	UTSA vs Memphis	+7.0	62.0	W 44 - 36	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/15	UTSA vs North Texas	-1.0	73.0	W 48 - 27	O	Y
Fri 11/22	UTSA vs Temple	-16.5	56.0	W 51 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UTSA at Army	+6.5	53.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Mon 12/23	UTSA vs Coastal Carolina	-12.5	56.5	W 44 - 15	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)	33.5	40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)	34.2	47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
UTSA	#61 (.2)	40% (100)	33.2	37% (123)	3.03 (70)	169	43% (61)	283	3.63 (94)	#42 (.13)	34% (2)	30.1	32% (1)	36% (16)	3.78 (66)	81.1	1.7	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
UTSA	#61 (.2)	40% (100)		37% (123)	3.03 (70)	169	43% (61)	283	3.63 (94)	#42 (.13)	34% (2)		32% (1)	36% (16)	3.78 (66)	81.1	1.7	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	13	33.5	34.8	42.5%	3.91	1.5	22	451	153	298	5.6	38%	62%	40%	44%	15%	.23
UTSA Defense	13	30.1	21.7	34.3%	3.78	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	32%	36%	22%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	13	34.2	43	44.3%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	47%	42%	11%	.22
UTSA Offense	13	33.2	42.6	40.1%	3.63	1.7	22	452	169	283	4.5	46%	54%	37%	43%	16%	.2

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	13	25:05	22.1	36%	48%	6.3	52.5	1.5	1.1	4.5	1.7	1	28.4
UTSA	13	31:10	21.5	41%	36%	8.7	81.1	1.7	1.6	8.2	3.2	2	30.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	13	38% (129)	40% (109)	27.6	153.2	5.6	22 (55)	.17 (44)	2.75 (111)	58% (128)	9% (51)	1.25 (4)
UTSA Defense	13	46% (24)	32% (1)	-	-	-	-	-.03 (5)	2.12 (1)	63% (16)	15% (4)	1.2 (129)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	13	54% (105)	47% (106)	-	-	-	-	.19 (102)	3.29 (111)	75% (74)	7% (128)	0.96 (54)
UTSA Offense	13	46% (97)	37% (123)	37.7	169	4.5	21 (59)	.1 (88)	3.03 (70)	60% (125)	10% (65)	1.09 (25)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	13	62% (6)	44% (39)	25.2	39.8	298	7.5	11.9	31 (6)	12 (85)	.26 (64)	1.6 (60)	33% (88)	34% (35)	.35 (64)	6% (71)	2 (93)
UTSA Defense	13	53% (112)	36% (16)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.27 (83)	1.9 (134)	36% (13)	27% (22)	.39 (103)	7% (29)	2.3 (130)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	13	46% (26)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (98)	1.7 (94)	31% (90)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	4% (128)	2.1 (93)
UTSA Offense	13	54% (37)	43% (61)	24.4	39.2	283.5	7.2	11.6	27 (20)	13 (103)	.29 (52)	1.5 (82)	34% (115)	30% (90)	.34 (67)	6% (81)	2 (73)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 UTSA: 1.295

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 UTSA: 2.2

UTSA's Power Ratings
UTSA's Power Rating: 1.295 #81
UTSA's Offense Rating: 17.26 #91
UTSA's Defense Rating: 6.84 #41
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
UTSA's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
UTSA's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2 #64
UTSA's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.3 #34
UTSA's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.5 #101

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.8
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 43

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
UTSA 40
North Texas 32

Total Points: 72

Based on Last 4 Games
UTSA 40
North Texas 34

Total Points: 75

Based on Entire Season
UTSA 38
North Texas 30

Total Points: 68

UTSA Scoring
Offense: 33.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 42.6
Defense: 30.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.7

UTSA's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 6 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	North Texas	55	UTSA	17	North Texas -4	North Texas	64.5	Over
2024	11/15	UTSA	48	North Texas	27	UTSA -1	UTSA	73.0	Over
2023	11/04	North Texas	29	UTSA	37	UT San Antonio -7.5	UTSA	71.0	Under
2022	12/02	UTSA	48	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -8.5	UTSA	70.0	Over
2022	10/22	UTSA	31	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -10	North Texas	73.0	Under
2021	11/27	North Texas	45	UTSA	23	UT San Antonio -8.5	North Texas	60.0	Over
2020	11/28	UTSA	49	North Texas	17	UT San Antonio -1.5	UTSA	67.0	Under
2019	09/21	North Texas	45	UTSA	3	North Texas -17.5	North Texas	57.0	Under
2018	11/24	UTSA	21	North Texas	24	North Texas -25	UTSA	51.5	Under
2017	10/14	North Texas	29	UTSA	26	UT San Antonio -2.5	North Texas	58.5	Under
2016	10/29	UTSA	31	North Texas	17	UT San Antonio -4	UTSA	51.0	Under
2015	10/31	North Texas	30	UTSA	23	UT San Antonio -12	North Texas	54.5	Under
2014	11/29	UTSA	34	North Texas	27	UT San Antonio -6	UTSA	0
2013	11/23	North Texas	13	UTSA	21	North Texas -7	UTSA	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UTSA	8	8	4 Overs
North Texas	6	6	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	11 - 3	11 - 3	7 - 2	4 - 1
Road Teams	3 - 11	3 - 11	1 - 4	2 - 7

(#98) UNT at (#81) UTSA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	UTSA
Power RatePwr	#98	#81
SP+SP+	#89	#64
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#73
OffenseOff	#99	#88
DefenseDef	#101	#37
Spec TeamsST	#64	#71
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#53

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

UTSA Notes(11/18) 680 yds vs N Tex, Def meh but TOs, McCown great
(11/3) Huge W (Mem), McCown good, forced 2 TOs to W
(10/28) Blew 35-7 halftime lead vs Tulsa. Season killer?
(10/20) Even w/ FAU. McCown good, Def played well
(10/12) Bad L (Rice). Pass D torched, Rgame bad
(9/28) Rgame 170 (4.5)better but Pass D awful vs ECU
(9/15) Off has been really bad. Rgame awful, QB ?
(9/8) Killed by Tex St? Pulled McCown? Rgame just awful
(8/13) Lost DPY DE to Texas, another DE kicked out
(8/13) Starting MLB French suspended indefinitely
(8/13) Lost 3/4 top WR's, new QB, Def suspensions?
(8/13) QB McCown (won bowl LY) vs Marberger (Davis?)
UTSA Injury Report

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Perf GradePerf	#99	#37
SuccessSuc	#70	#2
ExplosiveExp	#4	#134
PPAPPA	#45	#42
PowerPwr	#70	#41
SP+SP+	#27	#101
Pts POPPO	#69	#66
HavocHav	#47	#3

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Run GameRun	#30	#18
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#1
Run ExplRExp	#4	#129
PPAExp	#44	#5
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#1
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#2
TackleTak	-	#119

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	UTSA Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#93
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#16
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#134
PPAExp	#64	#83
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#19
F7 HavocF7	#51	#4
DB HavocDB	#71	#29

UTSA on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Perf GradePerf	#88	#101
SuccessSuc	#100	#98
ExplosiveExp	#20	#62
PPAPPA	#61	#98
PowerPwr	#91	#105
SP+SP+	#34	#121
Pts POPPO	#94	#93
HavocHav	#67	#133

UTSA Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#78	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#123	#106
Run ExplRExp	#25	#54
PPAExp	#88	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#78	-
OL YdsOLY	#70	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#102	#116
TackleTak	-	#54

UTSA Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	UTSA Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#61	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#82	#94
PPAExp	#52	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#111	#123
F7 HavocF7	#65	#128
DB HavocDB	#81	#128

Program Comparison
UTSA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Top G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Alamodome
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 63° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 12
UTSA -1.0 (73.0)
UTSA won vs North Texas this year (48-27)

Previous Matchups
UTSA beat North Texas last year (48-27)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2023 (37-29)
UTSA beat North Texas in 2022 (31-27)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3

UTSA's OC Justin Burke (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Owen McCown	294	467	63%	3424	25	10	7.3
Eddie Lee Marburger	22	40	55%	234	2	3	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Robert Henry	130	706	7	5.4	88
Brandon High	93	495	8	5.3	66
Owen McCown	86	340	3	4.0	75
Kevorian Barnes	78	221	2	2.8	17

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Willie McCoy	28	536	4	19.1	66
Chris Carpenter	39	479	1	12.3	69
Houston Thomas	34	470	3	13.8	44
Devin Mccuin	45	424	5	9.4	54

View UTSA's Full Roster

UTSA's DC Jess Loepp (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Martavius French	80	17	1	4	3
Elliott Davison	58	0	0	0	4
Brevin Randle (Tr)	48	3	1	4	4
Jamal Ligon	46	7	3	4	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jimmori Robinson	44	18	11	8	1
Ronald Triplette	23	5	4	2	0
Brandon Brown	29	9	4	1	0
Jamal Ligon	46	7	3	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zah Frazier	24	1	0	1	9
Tyan Milton	18	2	1	1	5
Elliott Davison	58	0	0	0	4