North Texas at Florida Atlantic - 2024 Matchup Preview

North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -5.5 (58.5) (-205) Open: -6.0
North Texas 41 - Florida Atlantic: 37 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (35 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Rain Predicted
UNT coming off BYE
FAU coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -5 (SP+ UNT -8)
Projected Score: UNT: 33 - FAU: 28 (61)
UNT Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UNT Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs behind

Owls (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (29 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
FAU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Florida Atlantic at Michigan State	+12.0	45.0	L 10 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Florida Atlantic vs Army	-1.5	42.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida Atlantic vs Florida International	-3.5	44.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Florida Atlantic at UConn	+1.0	46.0	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/28	Florida Atlantic vs Wagner	-34.5	52.5	W 41 - 10	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Florida Atlantic vs North Texas	+5.5	58.5	L 37 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida Atlantic at UTSA	+4.0	52.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	Florida Atlantic vs South Florida	+1.5	48.0	L 21 - 44	O	N
Thu 11/7	Florida Atlantic at East Carolina	+5.5	58.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida Atlantic at Temple	+2.0	50.0	L 15 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/23	Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte	+3.0	49.5	L 27 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/30	Florida Atlantic at Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 63 - 16	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)	33.5	40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)	34.2	47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)	25.9	40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)	30.3	43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#45 (.23)	42% (70)		40% (109)	2.75 (111)	153	44% (39)	298	3.91 (69)	#98 (.22)	44% (98)		47% (106)	42% (79)	4.03 (93)	52.5	1.5	1.1
FAU	#80 (.17)	39% (108)		40% (107)	3.15 (48)	189	39% (99)	209	3.19 (122)	#90 (.21)	41% (54)		43% (72)	38% (39)	3.72 (62)	51.6	1.5	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	13	33.5	34.8	42.5%	3.91	1.5	22	451	153	298	5.6	38%	62%	40%	44%	15%	.23
FAU Defense	12	30.3	29.7	40.6%	3.72	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	38%	16%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	13	34.2	43	44.3%	4.03	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	47%	42%	11%	.22
FAU Offense	12	25.9	28.5	39.2%	3.19	1.5	20	398	189	209	5	54%	45%	40%	39%	17%	.17

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	13	25:05	22.1	36%	48%	6.3	52.5	1.5	1.1	4.5	1.7	1	28.4
Florida Atlantic	12	30:22	19.5	35%	47%	6.6	51.6	1.5	1.6	5.7	1.4	1	28.5

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	13	38% (129)	40% (109)	27.6	153.2	5.6	22 (55)	.17 (44)	2.75 (111)	58% (128)	9% (51)	1.25 (4)
FAU Defense	12	52% (86)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.16 (87)	3.09 (86)	83% (124)	10% (65)	1.05 (97)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	13	54% (105)	47% (106)	-	-	-	-	.19 (102)	3.29 (111)	75% (74)	7% (128)	0.96 (54)
FAU Offense	12	54% (41)	40% (107)	38	189.2	5	24 (45)	.2 (34)	3.15 (48)	64% (118)	12% (113)	1.28 (2)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	13	62% (6)	44% (39)	25.2	39.8	298	7.5	11.9	31 (6)	12 (85)	.26 (64)	1.6 (60)	33% (88)	34% (35)	.35 (64)	6% (71)	2 (93)
FAU Defense	12	47% (45)	38% (39)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (52)	.28 (94)	1.8 (129)	34% (33)	32% (88)	.35 (91)	6% (52)	2.2 (108)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	13	46% (26)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (66)	.29 (98)	1.7 (94)	31% (90)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	4% (128)	2.1 (93)
FAU Offense	12	45% (98)	39% (99)	17.1	29.2	208.6	7.2	12.2	14 (108)	11 (72)	.19 (96)	1.6 (51)	33% (105)	32% (65)	.39 (46)	5% (37)	2.1 (43)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 Florida Atlantic: -11.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 Florida Atlantic: -12.7

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -11.865 #114
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.8
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 43

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 33
Florida Atlantic 28

Total Points: 61

Based on Last 4 Games
Florida Atlantic 38
North Texas 26

Total Points: 63

Based on Entire Season
Florida Atlantic 33
North Texas 32

Total Points: 65

Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 25.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Florida Atlantic	37	North Texas	41	North Texas -5.5	Florida Atlantic	58.5	Over
2022	10/01	North Texas	45	Florida Atlantic	28	Florida Atlantic -3	North Texas	67.5	Over
2018	11/15	North Texas	41	Florida Atlantic	38	North Texas -4.5	Florida Atlantic	63.5	Over
2017	12/02	Florida Atlantic	41	North Texas	17	Florida Atlantic -12	Florida Atlantic	71.5	Under
2017	10/21	Florida Atlantic	69	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic -3.5	Florida Atlantic	66.5	Over
2014	11/08	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic	10	Florida Atlantic -3.5	North Texas	0
2012	09/29	Florida Atlantic	14	North Texas	20
2011	10/08	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic	17
2010	09/25	Florida Atlantic	17	North Texas	21
2009	10/17	North Texas	40	Florida Atlantic	44
2008	11/08	Florida Atlantic	46	North Texas	13
2007	09/22	North Texas	20	Florida Atlantic	30
2006	11/18	North Texas	16	Florida Atlantic	17
2005	11/12	Florida Atlantic	26	North Texas	23
2004	09/11	North Texas	13	Florida Atlantic	20

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida Atlantic	8	4	4 Overs
North Texas	7	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	7 - 8	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#98) UNT at (#114) FAU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	UNT	FAU
Power RatePwr	#98	#114
SP+SP+	#89	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#105	#79
OffenseOff	#99	#84
DefenseDef	#101	#63
Spec TeamsST	#64	#80
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Florida Atlantic Notes(12/23) Signed QB Caden Veltkamp (WKU), huge get
(12/5) Hired new HC Tex Tech OC Zach Kittley
(11/18) HC Herman fired, ST's Lunsford taking over
(11/18) Off is lost. Herman fired after Temple L. DC back?
(11/18) DC Bellantoni back after Herman fired?
(11/10) Fired DC Bellantoni and OL Warinner
(11/8) Killed by ECU, Def mauled, QB Weisman good find?
(11/8) QB Fancher inj (ECU). BU Weisman looks good
(11/4) Def mauled by USF, 300+ rush, 7.4 ypc, Off OK, flags
(10/20) Def bad vs UTSA, 480+ yds. Run heavy but 3 ypc?
(10/12) Fancher/Rgame good, Def torched shootout L N.T.
(8/30) QB Francher bad passer but good runner, slippery
Florida Atlantic Injury Report

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	FAU Def
Perf GradePerf	#99	#63
SuccessSuc	#70	#54
ExplosiveExp	#4	#117
PPAPPA	#45	#90
PowerPwr	#70	#82
SP+SP+	#27	#104
Pts POPPO	#69	#62
HavocHav	#47	#61

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	FAU Def
Run GameRun	#30	#116
Run SuccessRSuc	#109	#72
Run ExplRExp	#4	#97
PPAExp	#44	#87
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#111	#86
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#79
TackleTak	-	#110

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	FAU Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#22
Pass SuccessPSuc	#39	#39
Pass ExplPExl	#60	#129
PPAExp	#64	#94
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#85	#38
F7 HavocF7	#51	#65
DB HavocDB	#71	#52

Florida Atlantic on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	UNT Def
Perf GradePerf	#84	#101
SuccessSuc	#108	#98
ExplosiveExp	#5	#62
PPAPPA	#80	#98
PowerPwr	#109	#105
SP+SP+	#109	#121
Pts POPPO	#122	#93
HavocHav	#89	#133

Florida Atlantic Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#68	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#107	#106
Run ExplRExp	#2	#54
PPAExp	#34	#102
Run BlockR Blk	#34	-
OL YdsOLY	#48	#111
Stuff RateStuff	#66	#116
TackleTak	-	#54

Florida Atlantic Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
CategoryCat	FAU Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#122	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#79
Pass ExplPExl	#51	#94
PPAExp	#96	#98
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#73	#123
F7 HavocF7	#113	#128
DB HavocDB	#37	#128

Program Comparison
FAU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 73°Rain: 0.028

Rematch from Week 7
North Texas 5.5 (58.5)
North Texas won at Florida Atlantic this year (41-37)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Florida Atlantic last year (41-37)
North Texas beat Florida Atlantic in 2022 (45-28)

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3

FAU's OC Charlie Frye (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Kasen Weisman (Tr)	39	73	53%	416	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Zuberi Mobley	91	471	4	5.2	72
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Xavier Terrell	14	261	3	18.6	93

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omari Hayes	39	590	3	15.1	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Jabari Smith	17	296	3	17.4	76
Marlyn Johnson (Tr)	17	169	0	9.9	22

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

FAU's DC Roc Bellantoni (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	74	1	0	0	1
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2
Eddie Williams	51	7	0	2	1
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Merrifield	15	4	3	2	0
Marlon Bradley	14	5	2	1	0
Chisom Ifeanyi (Tr)	21	4	2	4	0
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kahzir Brown (Tr)	42	2	1	7
Daedae Hill	27	1	0	5
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	1	4