North Texas at Florida Atlantic Game Matchup

North Texas Mean Green at Florida Atlantic Owls

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (7:00 PM EDT)
North Texas -5.5 (58.5) (-205) Open: -6.0
North Texas 41 - Florida Atlantic: 37 (American Athletic)

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 34 - 34 (35 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 4)

Rain Predicted
UNT coming off BYE
FAU coming off BYE
Our Line: North Texas -5 (SP+ UNT -8)
Projected Score: UNT: 33 - FAU: 28 (62)
UNT Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
UNT Travel: 1124 miles, 1 hrs behind

Owls (3 - 9) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Chad Lunsford (Int) (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (29 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
UNT Players
FAU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 5, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for North Texas's Schedule

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Florida Atlantic at Michigan State	+12.0	45.0	L 10 - 16	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Florida Atlantic vs Army	-1.5	42.5	L 7 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/14	Florida Atlantic vs Florida International	-3.5	44.5	W 38 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Florida Atlantic at UConn	+1.0	46.0	L 14 - 48	O	N
Sat 9/28	Florida Atlantic vs Wagner	-34.5	52.5	W 41 - 10	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Florida Atlantic vs North Texas	+5.5	58.5	L 37 - 41	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Florida Atlantic at UTSA	+4.0	52.5	L 24 - 38	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1	Florida Atlantic vs South Florida	+1.5	48.0	L 21 - 44	O	N
Thu 11/7	Florida Atlantic at East Carolina	+5.5	58.5	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 11/16	Florida Atlantic at Temple	+2.0	50.0	L 15 - 18	U	N
Sat 11/23	Florida Atlantic vs Charlotte	+3.0	49.5	L 27 - 39	O	N
Sat 11/30	Florida Atlantic at Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 63 - 16	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 4, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 3, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida Atlantic's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	33.5	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	34.2	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2
FAU	#108 (.12)	39% (107)	25.9	43% (73)	3.33 (26)	115	37% (104)	216	3.72 (83)	#77 (.19)	43% (85)	30.3	41% (51)	46% (122)	3.44 (39)	33.3	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FAU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Offense	12	33.5	34.8	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28
FAU Defense	12	30.3	29.7	43.2%	3.44	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	46%	15%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNT Defense	12	34.2	43	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34
FAU Offense	12	25.9	28.5	39.1%	3.72	1.4	18	331	115	216	3.8	43%	55%	43%	37%	20%	.12

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6
Florida Atlantic	12	27:24	17.9	34%	38%	3.4	33.3	1.4	1.5	6.9	2.3	3	31.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)
FAU Defense	12	51% (84)	41% (51)	-	-	-	-	.08 (30)	3.26 (102)	76% (92)	11% (52)	0.81 (7)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)
FAU Offense	12	43% (109)	43% (73)	30.8	115.3	3.8	16 (89)	.16 (67)	3.33 (26)	72% (85)	12% (113)	1.01 (59)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)
FAU Defense	12	48% (49)	46% (122)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.36 (111)	1.6 (57)	34% (42)	32% (97)	.34 (81)	4% (125)	1.9 (33)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)
FAU Offense	12	55% (27)	37% (104)	22.1	34.3	215.5	6.3	9.8	19 (78)	15 (116)	.16 (105)	1.5 (106)	34% (110)	24% (125)	.11 (125)	8% (125)	2 (102)

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -9.10 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 576.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -9.10 Florida Atlantic: -11.865

SP+ Ratings Matchup
North Texas: -4.5 Florida Atlantic: -12.7

Florida Atlantic's Power Ratings
Florida Atlantic's Power Rating: -11.865 #114
Florida Atlantic's Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
2024 Talent Rating: 530.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Florida Atlantic's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Florida Atlantic's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Florida Atlantic's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.8
Defense: 34.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 43

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
North Texas 33
Florida Atlantic 28

Projected Total Points: 62

Florida Atlantic Scoring
Offense: 25.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.5
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

Florida Atlantic's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/12	Florida Atlantic	37	North Texas	41	North Texas	North Texas -5.5	Florida Atlantic	58.5	Over
2022	10/01	North Texas	45	Florida Atlantic	28	North Texas	Florida Atlantic -3	North Texas	67.5	Over
2018	11/15	North Texas	41	Florida Atlantic	38	North Texas	North Texas -4.5	Florida Atlantic	63.5	Over
2017	12/02	Florida Atlantic	41	North Texas	17	Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic -12	Florida Atlantic	71.5	Under
2017	10/21	Florida Atlantic	69	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic	Florida Atlantic -3.5	Florida Atlantic	66.5	Over
2014	11/08	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic	10	North Texas	Florida Atlantic -3.5	North Texas	0
2012	09/29	Florida Atlantic	14	North Texas	20	North Texas
2011	10/08	North Texas	31	Florida Atlantic	17	North Texas
2010	09/25	Florida Atlantic	17	North Texas	21	North Texas
2009	10/17	North Texas	40	Florida Atlantic	44	Florida Atlantic
2008	11/08	Florida Atlantic	46	North Texas	13	Florida Atlantic
2007	09/22	North Texas	20	Florida Atlantic	30	Florida Atlantic
2006	11/18	North Texas	16	Florida Atlantic	17	Florida Atlantic
2005	11/12	Florida Atlantic	26	North Texas	23	Florida Atlantic
2004	09/11	North Texas	13	Florida Atlantic	20	Florida Atlantic

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Florida Atlantic	8	4	4 Overs
North Texas	7	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 7	5 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 0
Road Teams	7 - 8	1 - 5	0 - 3	1 - 2

(#98) North Texas Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -9.10 #98
Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121
Talent Rating: 576.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Good Pass Success 44%
Bad OL Grades, Awful OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Poor Defense Success Rate of 44%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.03 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 47%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

North Texas Notes
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep

North Texas Ratings Matchup Florida Atlantic

Power #98

#114

Off #70

#109

Def #105

#82

Talent #81

#90

SP+ #89

#113

SP+ Off #27

#109

SP+ Def #121

#104

Rematch from Week 7
North Texas 5.5 (58.5)
North Texas won at Florida Atlantic this year (41-37)

Previous Matchups
North Texas beat Florida Atlantic last year (41-37)
North Texas beat Florida Atlantic in 2022 (45-28)

Weather Forecast
Playing in FAU Stadium
Conditions: Rain
Temp: 73°Rain: 0.028

Team Information
Injuries: UNT | FAU
Depth Chart: UNT | FAU
Rosters: UNT | FAU

(#114) Florida Atlantic Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -11.865 #114
Offense Rating: 14.76 #109
Defense Rating: 11.20 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -12.7 #113
Offense SP+ Rating: 20.8 #109
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Talent Rating: 530.00 #90
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 45%, Run: 54%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.19 PPO
Poor Run Success 40%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.72 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Florida Atlantic Notes
(12/5) Hired new HC Tex Tech OC Zach Kittley
(11/18) HC Herman fired, ST's Lunsford taking over
(11/18) Off is lost. Herman fired after Temple L. DC back?
(11/18) DC Bellantoni back after Herman fired?
(11/10) Fired DC Bellantoni and OL Warinner
(11/8) Killed by ECU, Def mauled, QB Weisman good find?
(11/8) QB Fancher inj (ECU). BU Weisman looks good
(11/4) Def mauled by USF, 300+ rush, 7.4 ypc, Off OK, flags
(10/20) Def bad vs UTSA, 480+ yds. Run heavy but 3 ypc?
(10/12) Fancher/Rgame good, Def torched shootout L N.T.

North Texas's OC Jordan Davis

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49
Dalton Carnes (Tr)	29	371	2	12.8	34
Wyatt Young	18	295	2	16.4	75

View North Texas's Full Roster

North Texas's DC Matt Caponi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1
Brian Nelson II	53	2	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Terrell Dawkins (Tr)	37	4	3	9	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	0	4
Shane Whitter (Tr)	49	2	0	2	3
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3

Florida Atlantic's OC Charlie Frye

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cam Fancher (Tr)	126	212	59%	1528	6	6	7.2
Kasen Weisman (Tr)	39	73	53%	416	2	3	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Campbell	165	860	11	5.2	58
Zuberi Mobley	91	471	4	5.2	72
Cam Fancher (Tr)	99	365	3	3.7	76
Xavier Terrell	14	261	3	18.6	93

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Omari Hayes	39	590	3	15.1	71
CJ Campbell	40	466	3	11.7	78
Jabari Smith	17	296	3	17.4	76
Marlyn Johnson (Tr)	17	169	0	9.9	22

View Florida Atlantic's Full Roster

Florida Atlantic's DC Roc Bellantoni

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
C.J. Heard	74	1	0	0	1
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4
Kahzir Brown (Tr)	42	2	0	1	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacob Merrifield	15	4	3	2	0
Jackson Ambush	68	6	2	0	2
Devonta Davis (Tr)	29	6	2	1	0
Chisom Ifeanyi (Tr)	21	4	2	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kahzir Brown (Tr)	42	2	0	1	7
Phillip Dunnam (Tr)	48	3	0	1	4
Wendol Philord	41	6	1	0	4