Tulane at North Texas - 2024 Matchup Preview

Tulane Green Wave at North Texas Mean Green

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Tulane -7.5 (70.5) (-300) Open: -7.5 | 65.5
Tulane 45 - North Texas: 37 (American Athletic)

Green Wave (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (26 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Tulane -10.5 (SP+ TULN -10)
Projected Score: TULN: 39 - UNT: 28 (67)
TULN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TULN Travel: 472 miles

Mean Green (6 - 7) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Eric Morris (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 45 - 27 (46 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TULN Players
UNT Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulane's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Tulane vs SE Louisiana	-28.5	55.5	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Tulane vs Kansas State	+8.5	47.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Tulane at Oklahoma	+13.5	48.5	L 19 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/21	Tulane at Louisiana	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Tulane vs South Florida	-4.0	60.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Tulane at UAB	-19.5	52.0	W 71 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Tulane vs Rice	-21.5	53.5	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/26	Tulane at North Texas	-7.5	70.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Thu 10/31	Tulane at Charlotte	-14.5	55.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Tulane vs Temple	-25.5	50.5	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Tulane at Navy	-7.5	49.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Tulane vs Memphis	-12.5	54.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Fri 12/6	Tulane at Army	-4.5	46.5	L 14 - 35	O	N
Fri 12/20	Tulane vs Florida	+10.0	50.5	L 8 - 33	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulane's Schedule

North Texas's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	North Texas at South Alabama	+6.0	61.5	W 52 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/7	North Texas vs Stephen F. Austin	-21.5	72.5	W 35 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	North Texas at Texas Tech	+10.5	70.5	L 21 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	North Texas vs Wyoming	-7.0	55.0	W 44 - 17	O	Y
Sat 9/28	North Texas vs Tulsa	-7.0	65.5	W 52 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	North Texas at Florida Atlantic	-5.5	58.5	W 41 - 37	O	N
Sat 10/19	North Texas at Memphis	+10.5	67.5	L 44 - 52	O	Y
Sat 10/26	North Texas vs Tulane	+7.5	70.5	L 37 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	North Texas vs Army	+6.5	68.0	L 3 - 14	U	N
Fri 11/15	North Texas at UTSA	+1.0	73.0	L 27 - 48	O	N
Sat 11/23	North Texas vs East Carolina	-2.5	73.5	L 28 - 40	U	N
Sat 11/30	North Texas at Temple	-10.5	63.5	W 24 - 17	U	N
Fri 1/3	North Texas vs Texas State	+15.5	67.5	L 28 - 30	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TULN	#70 (.19)	42% (61)	27.7	40% (108)	3.13 (63)	155	47% (27)	215	3.62 (91)	#56 (.16)	41% (55)	23.9	40% (42)	43% (83)	3.7 (61)	42.9	1.4	2
UNT	#28 (.28)	45% (42)	45.1	46% (37)	3.4 (12)	191	44% (42)	305	4.42 (28)	#132 (.34)	48% (131)	26.5	51% (129)	46% (120)	4.77 (130)	46.6	1.6	1.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TULN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNT		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TULN Offense	14	27.7	26.4	42.4%	3.62	1.4	18	370	155	215	4.1	56%	43%	40%	47%	14%	.19
UNT Defense	12	26.5	22	48.5%	4.77	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	46%	11%	.34

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TULN Defense	14	23.9	32	41.1%	3.7	2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	40%	43%	18%	.16
UNT Offense	12	45.1	45.7	44.7%	4.42	1.6	25	496	191	305	5.1	45%	54%	46%	44%	17%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulane	14	31:20	18.4	38%	59%	4.8	42.9	1.4	2	5.9	2.4	2	33.7
North Texas	12	29:12	24.8	42%	60%	4.8	46.6	1.6	1.2	4	1.4	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TULN Offense	14	56% (21)	40% (108)	37.6	155.1	4.1	16 (89)	.09 (104)	3.13 (63)	72% (89)	8% (36)	0.88 (121)
UNT Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (129)	-	-	-	-	.36 (132)	3.49 (129)	74% (77)	7% (133)	1.15 (120)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TULN Defense	14	45% (14)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.09 (34)	3.03 (54)	77% (94)	11% (46)	1.01 (75)
UNT Offense	12	45% (105)	46% (37)	37.4	191.2	5.1	19 (69)	.3 (7)	3.4 (12)	78% (28)	10% (71)	1.22 (1)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TULN Offense	14	43% (109)	47% (27)	16.4	26.3	215	8.2	13.1	25 (37)	7 (21)	.35 (40)	1.6 (77)	29% (24)	29% (83)	.28 (86)	6% (57)	2 (101)
UNT Defense	12	39% (1)	46% (120)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.38 (115)	1.6 (62)	25% (132)	34% (116)	.44 (120)	5% (118)	2.1 (68)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TULN Defense	14	54% (121)	43% (83)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.25 (54)	1.4 (13)	34% (40)	29% (53)	.23 (28)	7% (24)	1.8 (15)
UNT Offense	12	54% (29)	44% (42)	23.7	38.6	304.8	7.9	12.9	33 (11)	9 (40)	.3 (63)	1.7 (43)	33% (89)	35% (26)	.49 (20)	7% (96)	2.3 (11)

Tulane's Power Ratings
Tulane's Power Rating: 6.32 #40
Tulane's Offense Rating: 21.32 #53
Tulane's Defense Rating: 5.16 #28
2024 Talent Rating: 334.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Tulane's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Tulane's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #43
Tulane's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Tulane's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 6.32 North Texas: -4.3

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 5.7 North Texas: -4.5

North Texas's Power Ratings
North Texas's Power Rating: -4.3 #98
North Texas's Offense Rating: 19.35 #70
North Texas's Defense Rating: 14.51 #105
2024 Talent Rating: 285.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
North Texas's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
North Texas's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.5 #89
North Texas's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.3 #27
North Texas's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #121

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Tulane Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

Tulane's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Tulane 39
North Texas 28

Projected Total Points: 67

North Texas Scoring
Offense: 45.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.7
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 22

North Texas's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	12/05	Tulane	34	North Texas	21	North Texas -1.5	Tulane	66.5	Under
2024	10/26	North Texas	37	Tulane	45	Tulane -7.5	Tulane	70.5	Over
2023	10/21	Tulane	35	North Texas	28	Tulane -20	North Texas	63.5	Under
2013	10/05	Tulane	24	North Texas	21	North Texas -2	Tulane	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
North Texas	0	1	1 Overs
Tulane	4	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	2 - 2	0 - 1	2 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0

(#40) TULN at (#98) UNT

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TULN	UNT
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#98
SP+SP+	#43	#89
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#105
OffenseOff	#4	#99
DefenseDef	#22	#101
Spec TeamsST	#61	#64
TalentTal	#63	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Tulane Notes(12/27) Lost QB and RB Hughes to portal
(12/16) QB Mensah left via portal (Duke)
(12/16) Signed QB TJ Finley (WKU/T St/Aub/LSU)
(12/6) Mauled by Army in AACC, Run D mauled 335 yds
(11/28) Mauled by Memphis on Sr day, Outrushed 236-57.
(11/25) AAC title game vs Army
(11/16) 200+ rush yds in Navy W, Clinched AAC title game
(10/31) Very slow paced and methodical. Too conservative
(10/28) Scored 40+ pts in last 4 of 5, Navy/Memphis finish
(10/28) Most pts off TOs in CFB, 8+ PPG thru 8 weeks
(10/20) Even w/ Rice into 4th? Mensah/Rgame bad TW
(10/6) Gaining on G5 best. 136-20 last 2 games.
Tulane Injury Report

North Texas Notes(11/25) Now have to W @ Temple just to bowl
(11/25) 5 str L's, Def awful, R Def mauled. Bad vibes
(11/18) Def just abysmal (UTSA). Morris INTs, Rgame great
(11/17) DC Caponi after UTSA blowout
(10/20) Morris great, Rgame great, Def awful (Tulane L)
(10/12) QB Morris great, Rgame Ok in shootout W (F Atl)
(10/4) QB Morris been great, Rgame awful. Over Team
(9/1) Great W @ S Al, Morris 415, run game bad, Def bad
(8/21) Starting DB/S I. Young out for the season.
(8/13) Brutal def LY esp. vs run, Off has much to find
(7/30) QB Morris (TCU) out spring, 20 portals in 2 deep
(7/30) RB/WR mostly new, portal adds look good
North Texas Injury Report

Tulane on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	UNT Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#101
SuccessSuc	#61	#131
ExplosiveExp	#112	#81
PPAPPA	#70	#132
PowerPwr	#53	#105
SP+SP+	#30	#121
Pts POPPO	#91	#130
HavocHav	#32	#132

Tulane Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	UNT Def
Run GameRun	#8	#57
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#129
Run ExplRExp	#121	#120
PPAExp	#104	#132
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	#63	#129
Stuff RateStuff	#33	#107
TackleTak	-	#54

Tulane Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	UNT Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#110
Pass SuccessPSuc	#27	#120
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#62
PPAExp	#40	#115
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#30	#123
F7 HavocF7	#36	#133
DB HavocDB	#57	#118

North Texas on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TULN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#99	#22
SuccessSuc	#42	#55
ExplosiveExp	#5	#43
PPAPPA	#28	#56
PowerPwr	#70	#28
SP+SP+	#27	#73
Pts POPPO	#28	#61
HavocHav	#86	#29

North Texas Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TULN Def
Run GameRun	#30	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#37	#42
Run ExplRExp	#1	#75
PPAExp	#7	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#133	-
OL YdsOLY	#12	#54
Stuff RateStuff	#60	#67
TackleTak	-	#88

North Texas Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 38%
CategoryCat	UNT Off	TULN Def
Pass GamePass	#35	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#42	#83
Pass ExplPExl	#43	#13
PPAExp	#63	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#85	#2
F7 HavocF7	#71	#46
DB HavocDB	#96	#24

Program Comparison
UNT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'24 Profile: Remains Average G5

TULN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Apogee Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Tulane 7.5 (70.5)
Tulane won at North Texas this year (45-37)

Previous Matchups
Tulane beat North Texas last year (34-21)
Tulane beat North Texas in 2024 (45-37)
Tulane beat North Texas in 2023 (35-28)

TULN's OC Joe Craddock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darian Mensah	172	262	66%	2514	20	5	9.6
Ty Thompson (Tr)	6	11	55%	74	2	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makhi Hughes	243	1306	15	5.4	51
Arnold Barnes	83	396	6	4.8	27
Ty Thompson (Tr)	40	243	6	6.1	50
Ashaad Clayton	27	198	1	7.3	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Williams (Tr)	48	831	4	17.3	68
Dontae Fleming	29	577	1	19.9	53
Yulkeith Brown	31	440	4	14.2	42
Alex Bauman	15	171	6	11.4	36

View Tulane's Full Roster

TULN's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Grubbs	58	5	2	1	1
Sam Howard (Tr)	56	4	2	0	1
Bailey Despanie	49	3	0	0	1
Jack Tchienchou (Tr)	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Hamilton	21	6	5	4	0
Patrick Jenkins	30	7	5	1	2
Matthew Fobbs-White	21	8	4	0	1
Adin Huntington (Tr)	28	5	4	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Micah Robinson (Tr)	29	1	6
Javion White	9	2	3
Rayshawn Pleasant	35	1	3

UNT's OC Jordan Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chandler Morris (Tr)	322	509	63%	3774	31	12	7.4
Drew Mestemaker	30	46	65%	462	2	2	10.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Shane Porter	97	648	5	6.7	79
Makenzie McGill	78	470	10	6.0	75
Chandler Morris (Tr)	60	242	4	4.0	49
Kiefer Sibley	44	206	0	4.7	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DT Sheffield (Tr)	66	822	11	12.5	75
Damon Ward Jr.	41	755	4	18.4	57
Blair Conwright	40	542	7	13.6	96
Miles Coleman	36	378	2	10.5	49

View North Texas's Full Roster

UNT's DC Matt Caponi (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylen Smith	106	8	0	12	2
Jayden Hill (Tr)	86	3	1	2	3
Jordan Brown	79	4	1	2	0
Evan Jackson	59	1	0	1	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Breylon Charles	29	6	5	3	1
Roderick Brown	29	6	5	3	0
Chavez Brown	49	8	4	1	0
Ethan Wesloski	57	5	3	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Ridge Texada	44	2	0	7
Taylor Starling	20	2	0	4
Brian Nelson II	53	2	1	3