San Diego State at UNLV - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
UNLV -22 (55.5) (-2100) Open: -18.5
UNLV 41 - San Diego State: 20 (Mountain West)

Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (20 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -27 (SP+ UNLV -25)
Projected Score: SDSU: 15 - UNLV: 42 (57)
UNLV Win prob: 96% | Cover: 52%
SDSU Travel: 2694 miles

Rebels (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (9 - 5)
Avg Score : 35 - 21 (46 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	San Diego State vs East Texas A&M	-16
Sat 9/7	San Diego State vs Oregon State	+5.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	San Diego State at California	+18.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	San Diego State at Central Michigan	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/5	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-1.5	47.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/12	San Diego State at Wyoming	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	San Diego State vs Washington State	+17.0	56.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/1	San Diego State at Boise State	+24.5	55.5	L 24 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/8	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-1.5	65.5	L 16 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	San Diego State at UNLV	+22.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/23	San Diego State at Utah State	+5.0	60.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	San Diego State vs Air Force	+6.5	43.5	L 20 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

UNLV's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UNLV at Houston	+3.0	56.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UNLV vs Utah Tech	-41.5	55.5	W 72 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/13	UNLV vs Kansas	+7.0	57.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UNLV vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Fri 10/4	UNLV vs Syracuse	-5.5	55.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/11	UNLV at Utah State	-19.0	67.5	W 50 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/19	UNLV at Oregon State	-6.5	61.0	W 33 - 25	U	Y
Fri 10/25	UNLV vs Boise State	+4.0	64.0	L 24 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	UNLV at Hawai'i	-12.0	51.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/16	UNLV vs San Diego State	-22.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/22	UNLV at San José State	-7.5	59.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/30	UNLV vs Nevada	-17.5	54.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Fri 12/6	UNLV at Boise State	+3.5	57.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/18	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)	21.3	37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)	29.6	49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)	35.4	43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)	21.3	40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	12	21.3	20.3	37.4%	3.44	0.8	19	335	129	206	3.7	47%	52%	37%	38%	18%	.12
UNLV Defense	14	21.3	22.5	37.4%	4.05	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	44%	56%	40%	36%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	12	29.6	35.8	46.1%	4.28	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	49%	43%	12%	.23
UNLV Offense	14	35.4	45.8	41.7%	4.26	0.6	21	420	248	173	5.7	61%	39%	43%	40%	14%	.21

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	12	27:08	18.5	36%	53%	9.1	81.8	0.8	1	5.4	2.6	2	31
UNLV	14	29:59	21.1	40%	70%	5.6	49.2	0.6	1.6	6.3	2.6	4	34.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	12	47% (87)	37% (124)	35.3	128.9	3.7	13 (105)	.1 (84)	3 (78)	69% (97)	12% (114)	1.06 (37)
UNLV Defense	14	44% (8)	40% (39)	-	-	-	-	.11 (63)	2.63 (19)	73% (65)	10% (55)	1.08 (108)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	12	55% (117)	49% (117)	-	-	-	-	.21 (113)	3.49 (130)	80% (109)	9% (98)	0.94 (47)
UNLV Offense	14	61% (8)	43% (83)	43.5	247.8	5.7	29 (18)	.23 (23)	3.36 (16)	73% (71)	9% (58)	1.16 (9)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	12	52% (45)	38% (109)	19.5	31.3	205.7	6.6	10.6	15 (98)	8 (40)	.15 (107)	1.5 (99)	36% (125)	26% (114)	.29 (87)	6% (61)	2 (77)
UNLV Defense	14	56% (128)	36% (14)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.13 (25)	1.5 (47)	36% (17)	25% (7)	.19 (24)	8% (9)	2.2 (106)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	12	44% (17)	43% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.28 (96)	1.6 (75)	29% (112)	38% (126)	.52 (126)	3% (133)	2.1 (79)
UNLV Offense	14	39% (127)	40% (90)	12.7	22.1	172.6	7.8	13.6	25 (31)	6 (10)	.2 (94)	1.7 (32)	30% (43)	29% (93)	.26 (97)	5% (25)	2.1 (58)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -20.06 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -20.06 UNLV: 9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -15.4 UNLV: 9.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 9.22 #46
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.48 #81
UNLV's Defense Rating: 5.05 #27
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UNLV's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
UNLV's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #36
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #31
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.8

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 42
San Diego State 15

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 33
San Diego State 27

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 37
San Diego State 21

Total Points: 58

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 35.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.5

UNLV's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	UNLV	41	San Diego State	20	UNLV -22	San Diego State	55.5	Over
2022	11/05	San Diego State	14	UNLV	10	San Diego State -5	UNLV	47.0	Under
2021	11/19	UNLV	20	San Diego State	28	San Diego State -11	UNLV	41.0	Over
2020	10/24	San Diego State	34	UNLV	6	San Diego State -14	San Diego State	51.0	Under
2019	10/26	UNLV	17	San Diego State	20	San Diego State -12	UNLV	45.0	Under
2018	11/10	San Diego State	24	UNLV	27	San Diego State -24	UNLV	51.5	Under
2017	10/07	UNLV	10	San Diego State	41	San Diego State -9.5	San Diego State	56.5	Under
2016	10/08	San Diego State	26	UNLV	7	San Diego State -17.5	San Diego State	53.5	Under
2015	11/21	UNLV	14	San Diego State	52	San Diego State -11	San Diego State	50.5	Over
2014	09/27	San Diego State	34	UNLV	17	San Diego State -17	Push	0
2013	11/30	UNLV	45	San Diego State	19	San Diego State -3	UNLV	0
2012	10/27	San Diego State	24	UNLV	13
2011	11/26	UNLV	14	San Diego State	31
2010	11/27	San Diego State	48	UNLV	14
2009	11/28	UNLV	28	San Diego State	24
2008	11/22	San Diego State	42	UNLV	21
2007	11/10	UNLV	30	San Diego State	38
2006	11/11	San Diego State	21	UNLV	7
2005	10/08	UNLV	13	San Diego State	10
2004	11/20	San Diego State	21	UNLV	3
2003	11/08	UNLV	0	San Diego State	7
2002	10/26	San Diego State	31	UNLV	21
2001	10/13	UNLV	31	San Diego State	3
2000	11/24	San Diego State	24	UNLV	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	7	5	3 Overs
San Diego State	17	5	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	5 - 5	2 - 3	3 - 2
Road Teams	9 - 15	5 - 5	2 - 3	3 - 2

(#122) SDSU at (#46) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#46
SP+SP+	#119	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#16
OffenseOff	#91	#20
DefenseDef	#116	#28
Spec TeamsST	#24	#47
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#102

San Diego State Notes(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report

UNLV Notes(12/30) Hired DC Z Arnett (MSU HC)
(12/12) Hired HC Dan Mullen? Feels like a lazy hire
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat Nevada = MWC title gm vs Boise
(11/18) Beat Haw,SDSU. Rgame/QB great, Def good
(10/26) Even w/ Boise, Run D good, TO and late D cost
(10/23) WR R White gets 44% of targets, #1 in CFB
(9/28) Killed Fresno, Rgame great, QB Williams eff
(9/25) QB Sluka no longer with team (redshirt/portal)
(9/13) 2-0 vs B12, great W at Kan. Outgained but TOs won
(9/1) Great W @ Houston, bullied lines, 195 (4.1) vs 38 (1.5)
(7/31) New QBs Sluka/Williams (FCS/mobiles) will be great
(7/31) Team is really good, sched is really rough
UNLV Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#28
SuccessSuc	#120	#14
ExplosiveExp	#51	#93
PPAPPA	#108	#34
PowerPwr	#117	#27
SP+SP+	#122	#55
Pts POPPO	#107	#97
HavocHav	#99	#27

San Diego State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#118	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#39
Run ExplRExp	#37	#108
PPAExp	#84	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#19
Stuff RateStuff	#35	#18
TackleTak	-	#79

San Diego State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#14
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#47
PPAExp	#107	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#56
F7 HavocF7	#114	#55
DB HavocDB	#61	#9

UNLV on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#116
SuccessSuc	#84	#113
ExplosiveExp	#23	#44
PPAPPA	#56	#103
PowerPwr	#81	#109
SP+SP+	#31	#104
Pts POPPO	#33	#111
HavocHav	#41	#131

UNLV Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#19	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#83	#117
Run ExplRExp	#9	#47
PPAExp	#23	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#16	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#40	#132
TackleTak	-	#125

UNLV Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#90	#98
Pass ExplPExl	#32	#75
PPAExp	#94	#96
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#87
F7 HavocF7	#58	#98
DB HavocDB	#25	#133

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
UNLV -22.0 (55.5)
UNLV won vs San Diego State this year (41-20)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat San Diego State last year (41-20)
San Diego State beat UNLV in 2022 (14-10)

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Danny O'Neil	209	330	63%	2181	12	6	6.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson	20	39	51%	222	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Danny O'Neil	74	89	1	1.2	34
Cam Davis	14	76	0	5.4	38
Jaylon Armstead	13	42	0	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)	50	459	1	9.2	46
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nate Bennett (Tr)	22	314	1	14.3	48

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli (Tr)	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Kyle Moretti (Tr)	58	3	1	0	0
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Tupu Alualu	21	5	4	0	0
Marlem Louis (Tr)	10	4	4	0	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	150	252	60%	1941	19	5	7.7
Matthew Sluka (Tr)	21	48	44%	318	6	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	161	915	7	5.7	54
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	161	851	9	5.3	71
Kylin James (Tr)	89	653	5	7.3	86
Greg Burrell	66	370	3	5.6	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	79	1041	11	13.2	55
Jacob De Jesus	36	512	3	14.2	43
Jaden Bradley (Tr)	9	173	1	19.2	42
Kaleo Ballungay	17	152	6	8.9	29

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Jett Elad	84	5	1	2	6
Jalen Catalon (Tr)	77	5	2	1	3
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	46	15	8	1	5
Antonio Doyle Jr. (Tr)	56	8	7	4	3
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10
Cameron Oliver	33	1	1	0	10