San Diego State at Central Michigan - 2024 Matchup Preview

San Diego State Aztecs at Central Michigan Chippewas

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Central Michigan -2.5 (47.5) (-130) Open: -1.0
Central Michigan 22 - San Diego State: 21

Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 26 - 15 (18 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CMU 2nd straight Home Game
SDSU coming off BYE
CMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Central Michigan -5.5 (SP+ SDSU -0.5)
Projected Score: SDSU: 20 - CMU: 25 (45)
CMU Win prob: 55% | Cover: 49%
SDSU Travel: 1894 miles, 3 hrs behind

Chippewas (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (29 - 28)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (30 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SDSU Players
CMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	San Diego State vs East Texas A&M	-16
Sat 9/7	San Diego State vs Oregon State	+5.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	San Diego State at California	+18.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	San Diego State at Central Michigan	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/5	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-1.5	47.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/12	San Diego State at Wyoming	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	San Diego State vs Washington State	+17.0	56.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/1	San Diego State at Boise State	+24.5	55.5	L 24 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/8	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-1.5	65.5	L 16 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	San Diego State at UNLV	+22.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/23	San Diego State at Utah State	+5.0	60.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	San Diego State vs Air Force	+6.5	43.5	L 20 - 31	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule

Central Michigan's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Central Michigan vs Central Connecticut	-33.5	54.5	W 66 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Central Michigan vs Florida International	-3.5	51.5	L 16 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/14	Central Michigan at Illinois	+21.5	49.5	L 9 - 30	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Central Michigan vs Ball State	-6.5	51.0	W 37 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/28	Central Michigan vs San Diego State	-2.5	47.5	W 22 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Central Michigan vs Ohio	+3.0	50.5	L 25 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan	+3.5	52.5	L 34 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/26	Central Michigan at Miami (OH)	+10.5	48.5	L 7 - 46	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 11/5	Central Michigan vs Bowling Green	+14.5	47.5	L 13 - 23	U	Y
Tue 11/12	Central Michigan at Toledo	+15.0	52.5	L 10 - 37	U	N
Tue 11/19	Central Michigan vs Western Michigan	+6.0	56.0	W 16 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Central Michigan at Northern Illinois	+16.5	41.5	L 16 - 24	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU	#96 (.14)	42% (70)	26.4	43% (69)	3.08 (77)	154	41% (77)	172	3.2 (116)	#108 (.24)	47% (127)	15.4	53% (130)	43% (86)	3.38 (30)	44	1.4	1.5
CMU	#83 (.16)	40% (101)	22.5	43% (72)	3.29 (35)	160	36% (111)	185	4.2 (39)	#128 (.32)	45% (115)	23.5	48% (116)	44% (95)	4.43 (121)	58.1	1.3	0.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SDSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Offense	12	26.4	18.2	41.9%	3.2	1.4	17	326	154	172	4.1	56%	43%	43%	41%	15%	.14
CMU Defense	12	23.5	15.2	45.5%	4.43	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	44%	14%	.32

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SDSU Defense	12	15.4	18.3	46.9%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	53%	43%	16%	.24
CMU Offense	12	22.5	30.4	39.5%	4.2	1.3	19	344	160	185	4.2	56%	43%	43%	36%	14%	.16

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San Diego State	12	32:47	17.2	35%	57%	4.9	44	1.4	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	31.6
Central Michigan	12	30:13	18.9	34%	70%	6.7	58.1	1.3	0.7	4.6	1.5	1	29.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Offense	12	56% (22)	43% (69)	37.8	154.3	4.1	16 (89)	.12 (85)	3.08 (77)	74% (66)	10% (67)	0.9 (111)
CMU Defense	12	51% (86)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.25 (118)	3.4 (119)	77% (97)	8% (121)	1.04 (91)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SDSU Defense	12	46% (22)	53% (130)	-	-	-	-	.27 (126)	3.44 (123)	83% (114)	8% (118)	0.93 (36)
CMU Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (72)	38	159.5	4.2	21 (54)	.22 (30)	3.29 (35)	77% (36)	10% (68)	1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Offense	12	43% (112)	41% (77)	16.8	26.6	171.8	6.5	10.2	10 (120)	10 (56)	.21 (91)	1.4 (125)	32% (69)	27% (100)	.1 (128)	5% (28)	1.6 (133)
CMU Defense	12	48% (50)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.41 (122)	1.7 (96)	31% (90)	29% (52)	.35 (87)	5% (98)	2 (52)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SDSU Defense	12	52% (110)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (68)	1.5 (33)	28% (128)	32% (100)	.34 (80)	8% (18)	2 (40)
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	36% (111)	15.3	27.1	184.7	6.8	12.1	15 (96)	11 (68)	.16 (108)	1.7 (31)	36% (125)	28% (86)	.36 (62)	4% (9)	2.3 (14)

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -20.06 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 297.00 #75
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 259.75
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -20.06 Central Michigan: -12.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San Diego State: -15.4 Central Michigan: -15.8

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -12.46 #111
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 17.21 #92
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 12.06 #88
2024 Talent Rating: 233.00 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Central Michigan's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Central Michigan's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.8 #120
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.3 #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 247.58
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.2
Defense: 15.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Central Michigan 25
San Diego State 20

Projected Total Points: 45

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.4
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.2

Central Michigan's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/28	Central Michigan	22	San Diego State	21	Central Michigan -2.5	San Diego State	47.5	Under
2019	12/21	San Diego State	48	Central Michigan	11	San Diego State -4.0	San Diego State	40.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Central Michigan	1	0	1 Overs
San Diego State	1	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#122) SDSU at (#111) CMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SDSU	CMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#111
SP+SP+	#119	#120
Perf GradeGrade	#108	#108
OffenseOff	#91	#129
DefenseDef	#116	#55
Spec TeamsST	#24	#45
TalentTal	#75	#104
Blue ChipsBC%	#97	#102

San Diego State Notes(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report

Central Michigan Notes(12/10) Hired HC Drinkall (Army OL/TE, K Wes HC 14-18)
(11/20) McElwain retiring after final game vs N. Ill
(11/13) New QB Glasser bad vs Toledo, Rgame awful in L
(11/8) Off really bad, QB's unplayable, Rgame plodding
(10/27) 3 str L's, Def cooked, QBs are awful, Dogs last 4
(10/20) 45 runs/12 pass. Ran for 285, but Pass D torched
(10/15) Starting QB Labas out for season (arm)
(10/15) Backup QB Jefferson starting vs EMU
(10/13) QB's bad, Rgame OK, Run def mauled by Ohio
(10/4) Run Off/Def good, Pass Off/Def bad. OL & F7 good
(10/2) Rgame good/dominant vs poor D's. QB Labas JAG
(9/15) OL/DL played even w/ Ill. QB Labas really awful
Central Michigan Injury Report

San Diego State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#55
SuccessSuc	#70	#115
ExplosiveExp	#130	#93
PPAPPA	#96	#128
PowerPwr	#117	#88
SP+SP+	#122	#115
Pts POPPO	#116	#121
HavocHav	#49	#119

San Diego State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#118	#40
Run SuccessRSuc	#69	#116
Run ExplRExp	#111	#91
PPAExp	#85	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#117
TackleTak	-	#23

San Diego State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#87
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#96
PPAExp	#91	#122
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#63	#28
F7 HavocF7	#67	#121
DB HavocDB	#28	#98

Central Michigan on Offense

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	SDSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#129	#116
SuccessSuc	#101	#127
ExplosiveExp	#42	#22
PPAPPA	#83	#108
PowerPwr	#92	#109
SP+SP+	#122	#104
Pts POPPO	#39	#30
HavocHav	#39	#79

Central Michigan Run Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#100	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#130
Run ExplRExp	#23	#36
PPAExp	#30	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#106	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#121
TackleTak	-	#125

Central Michigan Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat	CMU Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#33
PPAExp	#108	#68
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#129	#87
F7 HavocF7	#68	#118
DB HavocDB	#9	#18

Program Comparison
CMU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Central Michigan -2.5 (47.5)
Central Michigan won vs San Diego State this year (22-21)

Previous Matchups
Central Michigan beat San Diego State in 2024 (22-21)

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Danny O'Neil	209	330	63%	2181	12	6	6.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson	20	39	51%	222	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Danny O'Neil	74	89	1	1.2	34
Cam Davis	14	76	0	5.4	38
Jaylon Armstead	13	42	0	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)	50	459	1	9.2	46
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nate Bennett (Tr)	22	314	1	14.3	48

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli (Tr)	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Kyle Moretti (Tr)	58	3	1	0	0
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Tupu Alualu	21	5	4	0	0
Marlem Louis (Tr)	10	4	4	0	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3

CMU's OC Jim McElwain (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Joey Labas	94	160	59%	1114	7	7	7.0
Jadyn Glasser	41	76	54%	439	2	4	5.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	161	788	5	4.9	66
BJ Harris	91	418	3	4.6	71
Myles Bailey	51	292	3	5.7	35
Tyler Jefferson	43	233	1	5.4	44

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chris Parker	29	360	3	12.4	44
Solomon Davis (Tr)	19	350	2	18.4	72
Evan Boyd	21	302	2	14.4	47
Jesse Prewitt III	23	186	2	8.1	21

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Kwiatkowski	97	14	0	1	1
Caleb Spann	61	4	2	0	5
Justin Whiteside	58	6	3	4	1
Elijah Rikard	56	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jason Williams	42	9	6	1	0
Jonah Pace	34	11	4	6	2
Michael Heldman	29	6	4	8	0
Dakota Cochran	54	11	4	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Daraun McKinney	53	2	1	9
Donte Kent	52	1	0	7
Caleb Spann	61	4	2	5