Oregon State at San Diego State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, September 7th 2024 (10:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -5.5 (54.5) (-210) Open: -6.0 | 54.5
Oregon State 21 - San Diego State: 0

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SDSU 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon State -4.5 (SP+ ORST -8.5)
Projected Score: ORST: 28 - SDSU: 24 (52)
ORST Win prob: 67% | Cover: 51%
ORST Travel: 878 miles

Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	San Diego State vs East Texas A&M	-16
Sat 9/7	San Diego State vs Oregon State	+5.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	San Diego State at California	+18.5	48.5	L 10 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	San Diego State at Central Michigan	+2.5	47.5	L 21 - 22	U	Y
Sat 10/5	San Diego State vs Hawai'i	-1.5	47.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/12	San Diego State at Wyoming	+1.5	43.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	San Diego State vs Washington State	+17.0	56.5	L 26 - 29	U	Y
Fri 11/1	San Diego State at Boise State	+24.5	55.5	L 24 - 56	O	N
Fri 11/8	San Diego State vs New Mexico	-1.5	65.5	L 16 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/16	San Diego State at UNLV	+22.0	55.5	L 20 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/23	San Diego State at Utah State	+5.0	60.0	L 20 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/30	San Diego State vs Air Force	+6.5	43.5	L 20 - 31	O	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)	21.3	37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)	29.6	49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	12	24.3	16.6	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16
SDSU Defense	12	29.6	23.3	46.1%	4.28	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	49%	43%	12%	.23

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	12	29.9	29.6	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27
SDSU Offense	12	21.3	22.3	37.4%	3.44	0.8	19	335	129	206	3.7	47%	52%	37%	38%	18%	.12

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9
San Diego State	12	27:08	18.5	36%	53%	9.1	81.8	0.8	1	5.4	2.6	2	31

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)
SDSU Defense	12	55% (117)	49% (117)	-	-	-	-	.21 (113)	3.49 (130)	80% (109)	9% (98)	0.94 (47)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)
SDSU Offense	12	47% (87)	37% (124)	35.3	128.9	3.7	13 (105)	.1 (84)	3 (78)	69% (97)	12% (114)	1.06 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)
SDSU Defense	12	44% (17)	43% (98)	-	-	-	-	-	-	7 (104)	.28 (96)	1.6 (75)	29% (112)	38% (126)	.52 (126)	3% (133)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)
SDSU Offense	12	52% (45)	38% (109)	19.5	31.3	205.7	6.6	10.6	15 (98)	8 (40)	.15 (107)	1.5 (99)	36% (125)	26% (114)	.29 (87)	6% (61)	2 (77)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -14.99 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.99 San Diego State: -15.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.7 San Diego State: -15.4

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 28
San Diego State 24

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 30
Oregon State 19

Total Points: 48

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 26
Oregon State 24

Total Points: 50

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	San Diego State	0	Oregon State	21	Oregon State -5.5	Oregon State	54.5	Under
2023	09/16	Oregon State	26	San Diego State	9	Oregon State -24.5	San Diego State	48.5	Under
2014	09/20	Oregon State	28	San Diego State	7	Oregon State -8.5	Oregon State	0
2013	09/21	San Diego State	30	Oregon State	34	Oregon State -8	San Diego State	0
2000	09/22	Oregon State	35	San Diego State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	0	2	0 Overs
Oregon State	5	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 3	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1

(#113) ORST at (#122) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ORST	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#113	#122
SP+SP+	#97	#119
Perf GradeGrade	#98	#108
OffenseOff	#55	#91
DefenseDef	#131	#116
Spec TeamsST	#28	#24
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#97

Oregon State Notes(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report

San Diego State Notes(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report

Oregon State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#55	#116
SuccessSuc	#59	#113
ExplosiveExp	#124	#44
PPAPPA	#87	#103
PowerPwr	#79	#109
SP+SP+	#73	#104
Pts POPPO	#75	#111
HavocHav	#56	#131

Oregon State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#50	#126
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#117
Run ExplRExp	#65	#47
PPAExp	#25	#113
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#130
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#132
TackleTak	-	#125

Oregon State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#90
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#98
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#75
PPAExp	#125	#96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#28	#87
F7 HavocF7	#50	#98
DB HavocDB	#84	#133

San Diego State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#131
SuccessSuc	#120	#125
ExplosiveExp	#51	#31
PPAPPA	#108	#117
PowerPwr	#117	#129
SP+SP+	#122	#107
Pts POPPO	#107	#117
HavocHav	#99	#115

San Diego State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#118	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#126
Run ExplRExp	#37	#55
PPAExp	#84	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#76	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#35	#108
TackleTak	-	#84

San Diego State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	SDSU Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#62	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#99	#41
PPAExp	#107	#104
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#63	#101
F7 HavocF7	#114	#122
DB HavocDB	#61	#75

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 79°

Rematch from Week 2
Oregon State 5.5 (54.5)
Oregon State won at San Diego State this year (21-0)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat San Diego State last year (21-0)
Oregon State beat San Diego State in 2023 (26-9)

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Ben Gulbranson	78	128	61%	943	4	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Zakaih Saez	24	3	1	2	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Andre Jordan	27	2	4
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Danny O'Neil	209	330	63%	2181	12	6	6.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson	20	39	51%	222	2	2	5.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	292	1274	12	4.4	47
Danny O'Neil	74	89	1	1.2	34
Cam Davis	14	76	0	5.4	38
Jaylon Armstead	13	42	0	3.2	15

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Louis Brown	38	620	3	16.3	44
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)	50	459	1	9.2	46
Jordan Napier	43	440	4	10.2	53
Nate Bennett (Tr)	22	314	1	14.3	48

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tano Letuli (Tr)	67	4	2	2	0
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Kyle Moretti (Tr)	58	3	1	0	0
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey White	56	19	13	5	1
Tupu Alualu	21	5	4	0	0
Marlem Louis (Tr)	10	4	4	0	0
Ryan Henderson	12	3	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deshawn McCuin	26	2	1	1	5
Chris Johnson	59	0	0	1	3
Eric Butler	44	3	0	0	3