Air Force Falcons at San Diego State Aztecs
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
Air Force -6.5 (43.5) (-230) Open: -3.5 | 43.5
Air Force 31 - San Diego State: 20 (Mountain West)
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 5)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -2 (SP+ AFA -3.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 22 - SDSU: 24 (45)
AFA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
AFA Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs ahead
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -2 (SP+ AFA -3.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 22 - SDSU: 24 (45)
AFA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
AFA Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
| Air Force's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | Air Force vs Merrimack | -30.5 | 47.5 | W 21 - 6 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/7 | Air Force vs San José State | -1.5 | 43.5 | L 7 - 17 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | Air Force at Baylor | +17.5 | 40.5 | L 3 - 31 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/28 | Air Force at Wyoming | -4.0 | 33.5 | L 19 - 31 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/5 | Air Force vs Navy | +10.0 | 37.0 | L 7 - 34 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/12 | Air Force at New Mexico | +7.0 | 56.0 | L 37 - 52 | O | N | |
| Sat 10/19 | Air Force vs Colorado State | +6.0 | 43.5 | L 13 - 21 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 11/2 | Air Force at Army | +18.0 | 38.5 | L 3 - 20 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/9 | Air Force vs Fresno State | +9.5 | 40.5 | W 36 - 28 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/16 | Air Force vs Oregon State | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 28 - 0 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | Air Force at Nevada | +3.0 | 44.5 | W 22 - 19 | U | Y | |
| Sat 11/30 | Air Force at San Diego State | -6.5 | 43.5 | W 31 - 20 | O | Y | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
| San Diego State's 2024 Schedule | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover | |
| Sat 8/31 | San Diego State vs East Texas A&M | -16 | |||||
| Sat 9/7 | San Diego State vs Oregon State | +5.5 | 54.5 | L 0 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 9/14 | San Diego State at California | +18.5 | 48.5 | L 10 - 31 | U | N | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 9/28 | San Diego State at Central Michigan | +2.5 | 47.5 | L 21 - 22 | U | Y | |
| Sat 10/5 | San Diego State vs Hawai'i | -1.5 | 47.5 | W 27 - 24 | O | Y | |
| Sat 10/12 | San Diego State at Wyoming | +1.5 | 43.0 | W 27 - 24 | O | Y | |
| BYE WEEK | |||||||
| Sat 10/26 | San Diego State vs Washington State | +17.0 | 56.5 | L 26 - 29 | U | Y | |
| Fri 11/1 | San Diego State at Boise State | +24.5 | 55.5 | L 24 - 56 | O | N | |
| Fri 11/8 | San Diego State vs New Mexico | -1.5 | 65.5 | L 16 - 21 | U | N | |
| Sat 11/16 | San Diego State at UNLV | +22.0 | 55.5 | L 20 - 41 | O | Y | |
| Sat 11/23 | San Diego State at Utah State | +5.0 | 60.0 | L 20 - 41 | O | N | |
| Sat 11/30 | San Diego State vs Air Force | +6.5 | 43.5 | L 20 - 31 | O | N | |
Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 8
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Important Stats (2024)
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 18.9 | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 23.3 | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 |
| SDSU | #108 (.12) | 37% (120) | 21.3 | 37% (124) | 3 (78) | 129 | 38% (109) | 206 | 3.44 (107) | #103 (.23) | 46% (113) | 29.6 | 49% (117) | 43% (98) | 4.28 (111) | 81.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Teams | Off Explosive. | Off Success | PPG | Rush Success | OL Yds Per Att | Rush YPG | Pass Success | Pass YPG | Off ScoreZone | Def Explosive. | Def Success | Def PPG | RunD Success | Pass D Success | Def ScoreZone | Penalty YPG | TO PG | Def TO PG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA | #103 (.13) | 42% (77) | 45% (60) | 3.03 (68) | 225 | 31% (131) | 90 | 4.02 (56) | #88 (.2) | 42% (68) | 41% (47) | 43% (89) | 3.97 (84) | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | ||
| SDSU | #108 (.12) | 37% (120) | 37% (124) | 3 (78) | 129 | 38% (109) | 206 | 3.44 (107) | #103 (.23) | 46% (113) | 49% (117) | 43% (98) | 4.28 (111) | 81.8 | 0.8 | 1 |
Overall Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18.9 | 19.2 | 42.1% | 4.02 | 1.3 | 18 | 314 | 225 | 90 | 4 | 82% | 18% | 45% | 31% | 12% | .13 |
| SDSU Defense | 12 | 29.6 | 23.3 | 46.1% | 4.28 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 55% | 44% | 49% | 43% | 12% | .23 |
| Teams | Games | PPG | PPG H/R | Success Rate | Pts PerOpp | TO | 1stD PG | TotalYds PG | RushYds PG | PassYdsPG | RYPA | Run Rate | Pass Rate | Run Success | Pass Success | Havoc Rate | Total PPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 23.3 | 28.8 | 41.7% | 3.97 | 1 | - | - | - | - | - | 56% | 44% | 41% | 43% | 15% | .2 |
| SDSU Offense | 12 | 21.3 | 22.3 | 37.4% | 3.44 | 0.8 | 19 | 335 | 129 | 206 | 3.7 | 47% | 52% | 37% | 38% | 18% | .12 |
Additional Stats 2024
| Teams | Games | Possession Time | 1st Downs PG | 3rd Down % | 4th Down % | Penalties PG | Penalty Yds PG | Off TO PG | Def TO PG | TFL PG | Sacks PG | D/ST TDs | Avg Field Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 12 | 33:58 | 17.9 | 42% | 64% | 3 | 28 | 1.3 | 1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0 | 28.6 |
| San Diego State | 12 | 27:08 | 18.5 | 36% | 53% | 9.1 | 81.8 | 0.8 | 1 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 2 | 31 |
Run Game Stats (2024)
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 82% (2) | 45% (60) | 55.7 | 224.7 | 4 | 24 (45) | .15 (60) | 3.03 (68) | 83% (11) | 9% (55) | 0.88 (112) |
| SDSU Defense | 12 | 55% (117) | 49% (117) | - | - | - | - | .21 (113) | 3.49 (130) | 80% (109) | 9% (98) | 0.94 (47) |
| Teams | Games | Run Play Rate | Run Play Success | Rush Att PG | Rush Yds PG | Rush Yds Per Att | Rushing TDs | Run Pred Pts Added | OL Yds Per Att | 3rd/4th & Short | Front 7 Havoc | Run Play Explosivness |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 56% (120) | 41% (47) | - | - | - | - | .1 (56) | 3.02 (73) | 66% (28) | 10% (63) | 1.07 (101) |
| SDSU Offense | 12 | 47% (87) | 37% (124) | 35.3 | 128.9 | 3.7 | 13 (105) | .1 (84) | 3 (78) | 69% (97) | 12% (114) | 1.06 (37) |
Pass Game Stats (2024)
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Offense | 12 | 18% (133) | 31% (131) | 5.2 | 11.5 | 89.8 | 7.8 | 17.4 | 5 (134) | 10 (63) | .09 (124) | 2.1 (1) | 27% (14) | 25% (124) | .18 (111) | 3% (2) | 2.1 (66) |
| SDSU Defense | 12 | 44% (17) | 43% (98) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 7 (104) | .28 (96) | 1.6 (75) | 29% (112) | 38% (126) | .52 (126) | 3% (133) | 2.1 (79) |
| Teams | Games | PassPlay Rate | PassPlay Success | Comp PG | Att PG | Yds PG | Yds PA | Yds PC | TDs | Ints | PassPlays PPA | PassPlays Expl | PassDowns Rate | PassDowns Succ Rate | PassDowns PPA | DB Havoc | PassDowns Expl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFA Defense | 12 | 44% (16) | 43% (89) | - | - | - | - | - | - | 4 (125) | .33 (107) | 1.6 (63) | 31% (79) | 30% (54) | .3 (63) | 5% (120) | 2 (60) |
| SDSU Offense | 12 | 52% (45) | 38% (109) | 19.5 | 31.3 | 205.7 | 6.6 | 10.6 | 15 (98) | 8 (40) | .15 (107) | 1.5 (99) | 36% (125) | 26% (114) | .29 (87) | 6% (61) | 2 (77) |
Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84 San Diego State: -15.23
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 San Diego State: -15.4
Air Force: -22.84 San Diego State: -15.23
SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7 San Diego State: -15.4
San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23 #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96
Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8
Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 24
Air Force 22
Total Points: 45
San Diego State 24
Air Force 22
Total Points: 45
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3
San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3
San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
| Year | Date | Home | Score | Away | Score | Winner | Spread | Cover | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11/30 | San Diego State | 20 | Air Force | 31 | Air Force | Air Force -6.5 | Air Force | 43.5 | Over |
| 2023 | 09/30 | Air Force | 49 | San Diego State | 10 | Air Force | Air Force -10.5 | Air Force | 43.5 | Over |
| 2022 | 11/26 | San Diego State | 3 | Air Force | 13 | Air Force | Air Force -2 | Air Force | 43.5 | Under |
| 2021 | 10/23 | Air Force | 14 | San Diego State | 20 | San Diego State | Air Force -3 | San Diego State | 38.5 | Under |
| 2018 | 10/12 | San Diego State | 21 | Air Force | 17 | San Diego State | San Diego State -11 | Air Force | 43.5 | Under |
| 2017 | 09/23 | Air Force | 24 | San Diego State | 28 | San Diego State | San Diego State -1.5 | San Diego State | 48.0 | Over |
| 2015 | 12/05 | San Diego State | 27 | Air Force | 24 | San Diego State | San Diego State -3.5 | Air Force | 46.5 | Over |
| 2014 | 11/21 | San Diego State | 30 | Air Force | 14 | San Diego State | San Diego State -2 | San Diego State | 0 | |
| 2013 | 10/10 | Air Force | 20 | San Diego State | 27 | San Diego State | San Diego State -3.5 | San Diego State | 0 | |
| 2012 | 11/10 | San Diego State | 28 | Air Force | 9 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2011 | 10/13 | Air Force | 27 | San Diego State | 41 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2010 | 10/16 | San Diego State | 27 | Air Force | 25 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2009 | 09/26 | Air Force | 26 | San Diego State | 14 | Air Force | ||||
| 2008 | 10/11 | San Diego State | 10 | Air Force | 35 | Air Force | ||||
| 2007 | 11/17 | Air Force | 55 | San Diego State | 23 | Air Force | ||||
| 2006 | 10/21 | San Diego State | 19 | Air Force | 12 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2005 | 09/10 | Air Force | 41 | San Diego State | 29 | Air Force | ||||
| 2004 | 11/13 | Air Force | 31 | San Diego State | 37 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2003 | 11/22 | San Diego State | 24 | Air Force | 3 | San Diego State | ||||
| 2001 | 09/29 | San Diego State | 21 | Air Force | 45 | Air Force | ||||
| 2000 | 11/17 | Air Force | 45 | San Diego State | 24 | Air Force |
| Team | Wins | Covers | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 12 | 4 | 4 Overs |
| Air Force | 9 | 5 | 3 Unders |
| Wins | Covers | Favs | Dogs | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home Teams | 12 - 9 | 2 - 7 | 2 - 3 | 0 - 4 |
| Road Teams | 9 - 12 | 7 - 2 | 4 - 0 | 3 - 2 |
(#125) Air Force Info
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has won 3 straight
Air Force has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
Power Rating: -22.84 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
Air Force has won 3 straight
Air Force has won 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 2 - 4 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )
Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
Air Force Highlights
Air Force has Really Good Running Game (#52)
Air Force does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#9)
Air Force commits very few Penalties (#6)
Air Force Deficiencies
Air Force has a really bad Offense
Air Force offense is not Explosive (#117)
Air Force pass game is really bad (#83)
Air Force does not Sack the QB (#13)
| Performance GradesPerf Grades | ||
|---|---|---|
| CategoryCat | SDSU | AFA |
| OverallOver | #77 | #69 |
| OffenseOff | #74 | #59 |
| DefenseDef | #95 | #93 |
| Special TeamsST | #22 | #106 |
| PassingPass | #49 | #99 |
| RushingRush | #86 | #78 |
| Run BlockRBLK | #59 | #15 |
| Pass BlockPBLK | #56 | #116 |
| Route RunningWR Rt | #53 | #93 |
| TacklingTkl | #109 | #54 |
| Run DefenseR Def | #101 | #86 |
| Pass Rush DefPRush | #74 | #82 |
| Coverage DefCov | #73 | #93 |
Rematch from Week 14
Air Force 6.5 (43.5)
Air Force won at San Diego State this year (31-20)
Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)
Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Team Information
Injuries: AFA | SDSU
Depth Chart: AFA | SDSU
Rosters: AFA | SDSU
(#122) San Diego State Info
Power Rating: -15.23 #122
Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
San Diego State has lost 5 straight
San Diego State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
San Diego State Notes
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#30)
San Diego State offense is really bad (#95)
San Diego State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#49)
San Diego State run game is really bad (#44)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State has a bad defense (#21)
San Diego State Does Not Stuff Runs (#73)
San Diego State has a bad defensive line (#79)
San Diego State has a bad red zone defense (#77)
Power Rating: -15.23 #122
Offense Rating: 12.55 #117
Defense Rating: 15.20 #109
Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4 #119
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1 #104
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #97
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 37%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.44 PPO
Awful Run Success 37%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Avg OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 46%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.28 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position
San Diego State has lost 5 straight
San Diego State has lost 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 2 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)
San Diego State Notes
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Highlights
San Diego State has a great TO Margin (#1)
San Diego State Deficiencies
San Diego State Can Not Run the Ball (#121)
San Diego State Commits a Lot of Penalties (#30)
San Diego State offense is really bad (#95)
San Diego State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#49)
San Diego State run game is really bad (#44)
San Diego State pass game is really bad (#126)
San Diego State has a bad defense (#21)
San Diego State Does Not Stuff Runs (#73)
San Diego State has a bad defensive line (#79)
San Diego State has a bad red zone defense (#77)
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Busha | 29 | 79 | 37% | 415 | 1 | 5 | 5.3 |
| Quentin Hayes | 25 | 43 | 58% | 455 | 3 | 2 | 10.6 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Carson | 138 | 600 | 5 | 4.3 | 50 |
| Quentin Hayes | 126 | 466 | 7 | 3.7 | 30 |
| Owen Allen | 77 | 335 | 2 | 4.4 | 14 |
| Cade Harris | 48 | 279 | 4 | 5.8 | 30 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Harris | 23 | 368 | 2 | 16.0 | 76 |
| Quin Smith | 10 | 207 | 1 | 20.7 | 39 |
| Jared Roznos | 5 | 109 | 0 | 21.8 | 52 |
| Bruin Fleischmann | 5 | 104 | 0 | 20.8 | 43 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Santiago | 37 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Peyton Zdroik | 18 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Osaro Aihie | 58 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
| Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner | 50 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamari Bellamy | 64 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Trey Williams | 31 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Camby Goff | 67 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Player Name | COMP | ATT | PCT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny O'Neil | 209 | 330 | 63% | 2181 | 12 | 6 | 6.6 |
| Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson | 20 | 39 | 51% | 222 | 2 | 2 | 5.7 |
| Player Name | CAR | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquez Cooper (Tr) | 292 | 1274 | 12 | 4.4 | 47 |
| Danny O'Neil | 74 | 89 | 1 | 1.2 | 34 |
| Cam Davis | 14 | 76 | 0 | 5.4 | 38 |
| Jaylon Armstead | 13 | 42 | 0 | 3.2 | 15 |
| Player Name | REC | YDS | TD | YPC | LONG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Brown | 38 | 620 | 3 | 16.3 | 44 |
| Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr) | 50 | 459 | 1 | 9.2 | 46 |
| Jordan Napier | 43 | 440 | 4 | 10.2 | 53 |
| Nate Bennett (Tr) | 22 | 314 | 1 | 14.3 | 48 |
| Top Def | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tano Letuli (Tr) | 67 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Kyle Moretti (Tr) | 58 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trey White | 56 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| Sacks | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey White | 56 | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 |
| Tupu Alualu | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Marlem Louis (Tr) | 10 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Henderson | 12 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Pass D | Tack | TFL | SACKS | PRESS | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshawn McCuin | 26 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| Chris Johnson | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Eric Butler | 44 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 |