Air Force at San Diego State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Air Force logo Air Force Falcons at San Diego State AztecsSan Diego State logo
Saturday, November 30th 2024 (10:30 PM EST)
Air Force -6.5 (43.5) (-230)  Open: -3.5 | 43.5
Air Force 31 - San Diego State: 20  (Mountain West)

 
Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
AFA 2nd straight Road Game
SDSU is playing their 6th straight game
AFA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: San Diego State -2  (SP+ AFA -3.5)

Projected Score: AFA: 21 - SDSU: 23 (44)
AFA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
AFA Travel: 809 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aztecs (3 - 9) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Sean Lewis (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 21 - 30 (22 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Air Force's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Air Force vs Merrimack-30.547.5W 21 - 6UN
Sat 9/7 Air Force vs San José State-1.543.5L 7 - 17UN
Sat 9/14 Air Force at Baylor+17.540.5L 3 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Air Force at Wyoming-4.033.5L 19 - 31ON
Sat 10/5 Air Force vs Navy+10.037.0L 7 - 34ON
Sat 10/12 Air Force at New Mexico+7.056.0L 37 - 52ON
Sat 10/19 Air Force vs Colorado State+6.043.5L 13 - 21UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Air Force at Army+18.038.5L 3 - 20UY
Sat 11/9 Air Force vs Fresno State+9.540.5W 36 - 28OY
Sat 11/16 Air Force vs Oregon State+3.044.5W 28 - 0UY
Sat 11/23 Air Force at Nevada+3.044.5W 22 - 19UY
Sat 11/30 Air Force at San Diego State-6.543.5W 31 - 20OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule
San Diego State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 San Diego State vs East Texas A&M-16
Sat 9/7 San Diego State vs Oregon State+5.554.5L 0 - 21UN
Sat 9/14 San Diego State at California+18.548.5L 10 - 31UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 San Diego State at Central Michigan+2.547.5L 21 - 22UY
Sat 10/5 San Diego State vs Hawai'i-1.547.5W 27 - 24OY
Sat 10/12 San Diego State at Wyoming+1.543.0W 27 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26 San Diego State vs Washington State+17.056.5L 26 - 29UY
Fri 11/1 San Diego State at Boise State+24.555.5L 24 - 56ON
Fri 11/8 San Diego State vs New Mexico-1.565.5L 16 - 21UN
Sat 11/16 San Diego State at UNLV+22.055.5L 20 - 41OY
Sat 11/23 San Diego State at Utah State+5.060.0L 20 - 41ON
Sat 11/30 San Diego State vs Air Force+6.543.5L 20 - 31ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San Diego State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)18.945% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)23.341% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)21.337% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)29.649% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AFA#103 (.13)42% (77)45% (60)3.03 (68)22531% (131)904.02 (56)#88 (.2)42% (68)41% (47)43% (89)3.97 (84)281.31
SDSU#108 (.12)37% (120)37% (124)3 (78)12938% (109)2063.44 (107)#103 (.23)46% (113)49% (117)43% (98)4.28 (111)81.80.81



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Offense1218.919.242.1%4.021.31831422590482%18%45%31%12%.13
SDSU Defense1229.623.346.1%4.281 - - - - - 55%44%49%43%12%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AFA Defense1223.328.841.7%3.971 - - - - - 56%44%41%43%15%.2
SDSU Offense1221.322.337.4%3.440.8193351292063.747%52%37%38%18%.12

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Air Force1233:5817.942%64%3281.314.31.5028.6
San Diego State1227:0818.536%53%9.181.80.815.42.6231
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Offense1282% (2)45% (60)55.7224.7424 (45).15 (60)3.03 (68)83% (11)9% (55)0.88 (112)
SDSU Defense1255% (117)49% (117) - - - - .21 (113)3.49 (130)80% (109)9% (98)0.94 (47)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AFA Defense1256% (120)41% (47) - - - - .1 (56)3.02 (73)66% (28)10% (63)1.07 (101)
SDSU Offense1247% (87)37% (124)35.3128.93.713 (105).1 (84)3 (78)69% (97)12% (114)1.06 (37)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Offense1218% (133)31% (131)5.211.589.87.817.45 (134)10 (63).09 (124)2.1 (1)27% (14)25% (124).18 (111)3% (2)2.1 (66)
SDSU Defense1244% (17)43% (98) - - - - - - 7 (104).28 (96)1.6 (75)29% (112)38% (126).52 (126)3% (133)2.1 (79)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AFA Defense1244% (16)43% (89) - - - - - - 4 (125).33 (107)1.6 (63)31% (79)30% (54).3 (63)5% (120)2 (60)
SDSU Offense1252% (45)38% (109)19.531.3205.76.610.615 (98)8 (40).15 (107)1.5 (99)36% (125)26% (114).29 (87)6% (61)2 (77)

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -22.84  #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34  #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43  #117
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7  #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5  #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -22.84   San Diego State: -15.23

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.7   San Diego State: -15.4




San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -15.23  #122
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.55  #117
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 15.20  #109
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #97
San Diego State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
San Diego State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.4  #119
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.7  #122
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.1  #104

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.2
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 28.8

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
San Diego State 23
Air Force 21


Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Air Force 24
San Diego State 18

Total Points: 42

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 24
Air Force 23

Total Points: 47
San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 21.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.3

San Diego State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/30San Diego State20Air Force31Air Force -6.5Air Force43.5Over
202309/30Air Force49San Diego State10Air Force -10.5Air Force43.5Over
202211/26San Diego State3Air Force13Air Force -2Air Force43.5Under
202110/23Air Force14San Diego State20Air Force -3San Diego State38.5Under
201810/12San Diego State21Air Force17San Diego State -11Air Force43.5Under
201709/23Air Force24San Diego State28San Diego State -1.5San Diego State48.0Over
201512/05San Diego State27Air Force24San Diego State -3.5Air Force46.5Over
201411/21San Diego State30Air Force14San Diego State -2San Diego State0
201310/10Air Force20San Diego State27San Diego State -3.5San Diego State0
201211/10San Diego State28Air Force9
201110/13Air Force27San Diego State41
201010/16San Diego State27Air Force25
200909/26Air Force26San Diego State14
200810/11San Diego State10Air Force35
200711/17Air Force55San Diego State23
200610/21San Diego State19Air Force12
200509/10Air Force41San Diego State29
200411/13Air Force31San Diego State37
200311/22San Diego State24Air Force3
200109/29San Diego State21Air Force45
200011/17Air Force45San Diego State24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
San Diego State1244 Overs
Air Force953 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 92 - 72 - 30 - 4
Road Teams9 - 127 - 24 - 03 - 2

(#125) AFA at (#122) SDSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatAFASDSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #125 #122
SP+SP+ #111 #119
Perf GradeGrade #97 #108
OffenseOff #72 #91
DefenseDef #113 #116
Spec TeamsST #129 #24
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #97
Air Force Notes
(11/18) Rgame mauled Oreg St. Hayes good, Def great
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19
(7/30) Last in CFB in return prod, but normal at AFA
Air Force Injury Report
San Diego State Notes
(11/18) Rgame only 2 guys, one the QB O'Neil? L to Rebs
(11/3) Fought vs Boise, Pass D torched. QB/Rgame bad
(10/30) Playing better and still fighting hard for Lewis
(10/27) Off is just awful, Success, Expl, Poss Time bad
(10/27) Good fight vs Wazzu, Run D was good, Off better
(10/13) QB O'Neil good, Rgame meh, 9 more penalties
(9/26) Most penalized CFB team, 116 YPG in Wk 5.
(9/8) Shutout, only 180 yds by Oreg St. Run D bad
(7/30) Over bet shots esp. early, will play tempo
(7/30) QB Duffy (FSU)/FR O'Neil, RB/TE/WR's from portal
(7/30) Total roster turnover, 24 in, 37 out via Portal
San Diego State Injury Report
Air Force on Offense
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSDSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #72 #116
SuccessSuc #77 #113
ExplosiveExp #134 #44
PPAPPA #103 #103
PowerPwr #112 #109
SP+SP+ #120 #104
Pts POPPO #56 #111
HavocHav #16 #131
Air Force Run Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSDSU Def
Run GameRun #109 #126
Run SuccessRSuc #60 #117
Run ExplRExp #112 #47
PPAExp #60 #113
Run BlockR Blk #17 -
OL YdsOLY #68 #130
Stuff RateStuff #21 #132
TackleTak -  #125
Air Force Pass Game
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
CategoryCat
AFA OffSDSU Def
Pass GamePass #122 #90
Pass SuccessPSuc #131 #98
Pass ExplPExl #1 #75
PPAExp #124 #96
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #133 #87
F7 HavocF7 #55 #98
DB HavocDB #2 #133
San Diego State on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSDSU OffAFA Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #91 #113
SuccessSuc #120 #68
ExplosiveExp #51 #84
PPAPPA #108 #88
PowerPwr #117 #117
SP+SP+ #122 #76
Pts POPPO #107 #84
HavocHav #99 #86
San Diego State Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat
SDSU OffAFA Def
Run GameRun #118 #109
Run SuccessRSuc #124 #47
Run ExplRExp #37 #101
PPAExp #84 #56
Run BlockR Blk #76 -
OL YdsOLY #78 #73
Stuff RateStuff #35 #82
TackleTak -  #61
San Diego State Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCatSDSU OffAFA Def
Pass GamePass #62 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #109 #89
Pass ExplPExl #99 #63
PPAExp #107 #107
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #96
F7 HavocF7 #114 #63
DB HavocDB #61 #120
Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 61°
Rematch from Week 14
Air Force 6.5 (43.5)
Air Force won at San Diego State this year (31-20)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat San Diego State last year (31-20)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2023 (49-10)
Air Force beat San Diego State in 2022 (13-3)

  
AFA's OC Mike Thiessen (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Busha297937%415155.3
Quentin Hayes254358%4553210.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Carson13860054.350
Quentin Hayes12646673.730
Owen Allen7733524.414
Cade Harris4827945.830
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cade Harris23368216.076
Quin Smith10207120.739
Jared Roznos5109021.852
Bruin Fleischmann5104020.843

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC Brian Knorr (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Camby Goff673013
Jamari Bellamy643004
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Santiago375423
Peyton Zdroik187330
Osaro Aihie582201
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner508212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jamari Bellamy643004
Trey Williams311004
Camby Goff673013

SDSU's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Danny O'Neil20933063%21811266.6
Javance Tupou'ata-Johnson203951%222225.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)2921274124.447
Danny O'Neil748911.234
Cam Davis147605.438
Jaylon Armstead134203.215
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Louis Brown38620316.344
Ja'Shaun Poke (Tr)5045919.246
Jordan Napier43440410.253
Nate Bennett (Tr)22314114.348

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Eric Schmidt (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tano Letuli (Tr)674220
Chris Johnson590013
Kyle Moretti (Tr)583100
Trey White56191351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey White56191351
Tupu Alualu215400
Marlem Louis (Tr)104400
Ryan Henderson123320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Deshawn McCuin262115
Chris Johnson590013
Eric Butler443003