Nevada at UNLV - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 30th 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
UNLV -17.5 (54.5) (-1000) Open: -18.5 | 55.5
UNLV 38 - Nevada: 14 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (3 - 10) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Jeff Choate (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 10 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UNLV is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: UNLV -23.5 (SP+ UNLV -25)
Projected Score: NEV: 16 - UNLV: 39 (55)
UNLV Win prob: 89% | Cover: 51%
NEV Travel: 2599 miles

Rebels (11 - 3) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (9 - 5)
Avg Score : 34 - 28 (37 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 11 - 3 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/24	Nevada vs SMU	+28.0	55.5	L 24 - 29	U	Y
Sat 8/31	Nevada at Troy	+7.5	44.5	W 28 - 26	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Nevada vs Georgia Southern	-1.5	56.5	L 17 - 20	U	N
Sat 9/14	Nevada at Minnesota	+17.5	44.5	L 0 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/21	Nevada vs Eastern Washington	-13.5	54.5	W 49 - 16	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Nevada at San José State	+7.0	51.5	L 31 - 35	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Nevada vs Oregon State	+3.0	47.0	W 42 - 37	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Nevada vs Fresno State	+3.0	50.0	L 21 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Nevada at Hawai'i	+2.5	42.0	L 13 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/2	Nevada vs Colorado State	+2.0	45.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 11/9	Nevada at Boise State	+23.5	60.5	L 21 - 28	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Nevada vs Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 19 - 22	U	N
Sat 11/30	Nevada at UNLV	+17.5	54.5	L 14 - 38	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

UNLV's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	UNLV at Houston	+3.0	56.0	W 27 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UNLV vs Utah Tech	-41.5	55.5	W 72 - 14	O	Y
Fri 9/13	UNLV vs Kansas	+7.0	57.0	W 23 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UNLV vs Fresno State	-2.5	51.0	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Fri 10/4	UNLV vs Syracuse	-5.5	55.5	L 41 - 44	O	N
Fri 10/11	UNLV at Utah State	-19.0	67.5	W 50 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/19	UNLV at Oregon State	-6.5	61.0	W 33 - 25	U	Y
Fri 10/25	UNLV vs Boise State	+4.0	64.0	L 24 - 29	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	UNLV at Hawai'i	-12.0	51.5	W 29 - 27	O	N
Sat 11/16	UNLV vs San Diego State	-22.0	55.5	W 41 - 20	O	N
Fri 11/22	UNLV at San José State	-7.5	59.5	W 27 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/30	UNLV vs Nevada	-17.5	54.5	W 38 - 14	U	Y
Fri 12/6	UNLV at Boise State	+3.5	57.5	L 7 - 21	U	N
Wed 12/18	UNLV vs California	-3.0	45.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.6	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	27.5	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3
UNLV	#38 (.27)	43% (58)	34.1	40% (101)	3.17 (58)	174	46% (28)	239	4.19 (40)	#115 (.26)	42% (65)	28	41% (52)	43% (93)	4.08 (94)	61.8	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UNLV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04
UNLV Defense	14	28	29.7	41.7%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	43%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24
UNLV Offense	14	34.1	36.8	42.5%	4.19	1.4	20	413	174	239	4.5	54%	45%	40%	46%	13%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8
UNLV	14	28:06	20.3	49%	45%	6.9	61.8	1.4	1.9	4	1.4	1	33.1

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)
UNLV Defense	14	53% (109)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.11 (50)	3.1 (69)	78% (101)	8% (113)	0.95 (42)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)
UNLV Offense	14	54% (36)	40% (101)	38.4	173.5	4.5	39 (2)	.2 (40)	3.17 (58)	76% (43)	8% (29)	1.18 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)
UNLV Defense	14	46% (24)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.48 (133)	1.9 (133)	33% (52)	29% (55)	.32 (72)	4% (128)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)
UNLV Offense	14	45% (96)	46% (28)	17.9	28.9	239.2	8.3	13.3	17 (85)	12 (85)	.37 (30)	1.6 (56)	32% (81)	33% (43)	.4 (44)	5% (42)	2.1 (59)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -13.37 #109
Nevada's Offense Rating: 22.53 #46
Nevada's Defense Rating: 14.97 #108
2024 Talent Rating: 214.00 #111
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Nevada's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 10.0
Nevada's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.2 #117
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #106
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.2 #113

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -13.37 UNLV: 9.22

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.2 UNLV: 9.3

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 9.22 #46
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.48 #81
UNLV's Defense Rating: 5.05 #27
2024 Talent Rating: 250.00 #96
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UNLV's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 3.0
UNLV's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.3 #36
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #31
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.6 #55

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 190
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 39
Nevada 16

Projected Total Points: 55

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 36.8
Defense: 28 PPG
Defense at Home: 29.7

UNLV's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/29	Nevada	17	UNLV	42	UNLV -7.5	UNLV	53.0	Over
2024	11/30	UNLV	38	Nevada	14	UNLV -17.5	UNLV	54.5	Under
2023	10/14	Nevada	27	UNLV	45	UNLV -7.5	UNLV	51.5	Over
2022	11/26	UNLV	27	Nevada	22	UNLV -12.5	Nevada	49.0	Push
2021	10/29	Nevada	51	UNLV	20	Nevada -19	Nevada	58.0	Over
2020	10/31	UNLV	19	Nevada	37	Nevada -10.5	Nevada	0
2019	11/30	Nevada	30	UNLV	33	Nevada -6.5	UNLV	52.0	Over
2018	11/24	UNLV	34	Nevada	29	Nevada -14	UNLV	60.5	Over
2017	11/25	Nevada	23	UNLV	16	Nevada -3	Nevada	70.0	Under
2016	11/26	UNLV	10	Nevada	45	UNLV -7	Nevada	59.0	Under
2015	10/03	Nevada	17	UNLV	23	Nevada -11.5	UNLV	57.0	Under
2014	11/29	UNLV	27	Nevada	49	Nevada -10	Nevada	0
2013	10/26	Nevada	22	UNLV	27	Nevada -3.5	UNLV	0
2012	10/13	UNLV	37	Nevada	42
2011	10/08	Nevada	37	UNLV	0
2010	10/02	UNLV	26	Nevada	44
2009	10/03	Nevada	63	UNLV	28
2008	09/27	UNLV	27	Nevada	49
2007	09/29	Nevada	27	UNLV	20
2006	09/30	UNLV	3	Nevada	31
2005	09/17	Nevada	22	UNLV	14
2004	10/02	UNLV	48	Nevada	13
2003	10/04	Nevada	12	UNLV	16
2002	10/05	UNLV	21	Nevada	17
2001	10/06	Nevada	12	UNLV	27
2000	10/06	UNLV	38	Nevada	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	13	7	5 Overs
Nevada	13	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 14	4 - 9	3 - 5	1 - 4
Road Teams	14 - 12	9 - 4	4 - 1	5 - 3

(#109) NEV at (#46) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	UNLV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#109	#46
SP+SP+	#117	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#94	#16
OffenseOff	#39	#20
DefenseDef	#119	#28
Spec TeamsST	#133	#47
TalentTal	#111	#96
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Nevada Notes(11/3) Outgained CSU but 2 TOs, bad 3rd down cost em
(10/19) 2nd H vs Fresno, 4 Punts, 2 loss of downs
(10/19) Rgame abysmal, 84 yds (2.2 ypc) vs Fresno in L
(10/19) QB Lewis benched for Purdy in Fresno game
(10/12) QB Lewis/RB Red almost 300 rush yds over Oreg St
(9/23) Choate a huge upgrade over prev staff
(9/1) QB Lewis v mobile, better passer than anticipated
(9/1) Played w/ SMU, W @ Troy. Nev vastly improved TY
(7/30) Worst team in CFB in '23, fired everyone
(7/30) Off near worst in '23, QB Purdy (Neb)?, WR ?
(7/30) OL has 3 back, RB actually decent. Lost AA Kicker
(7/30) Def near worst in 23, rebuild. All will take time
Nevada Injury Report

UNLV Notes(12/30) Hired DC Z Arnett (MSU HC)
(12/12) Hired HC Dan Mullen? Feels like a lazy hire
(11/25) 3 str W's, beat Nevada = MWC title gm vs Boise
(11/18) Beat Haw,SDSU. Rgame/QB great, Def good
(10/26) Even w/ Boise, Run D good, TO and late D cost
(10/23) WR R White gets 44% of targets, #1 in CFB
(9/28) Killed Fresno, Rgame great, QB Williams eff
(9/25) QB Sluka no longer with team (redshirt/portal)
(9/13) 2-0 vs B12, great W at Kan. Outgained but TOs won
(9/1) Great W @ Houston, bullied lines, 195 (4.1) vs 38 (1.5)
(7/31) New QBs Sluka/Williams (FCS/mobiles) will be great
(7/31) Team is really good, sched is really rough
UNLV Injury Report

Nevada on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#28
SuccessSuc	#129	#65
ExplosiveExp	#110	#119
PPAPPA	#128	#115
PowerPwr	#46	#27
SP+SP+	#106	#55
Pts POPPO	#132	#94
HavocHav	#131	#125

Nevada Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#70	#46
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#52
Run ExplRExp	#78	#42
PPAExp	#107	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#50	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#115
TackleTak	-	#79

Nevada Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	NEV Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#23	#16
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#133
PPAExp	#132	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#80	#56
F7 HavocF7	#133	#113
DB HavocDB	#89	#128

UNLV on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#20	#119
SuccessSuc	#58	#122
ExplosiveExp	#10	#100
PPAPPA	#38	#101
PowerPwr	#81	#108
SP+SP+	#31	#113
Pts POPPO	#40	#71
HavocHav	#25	#112

UNLV Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#19	#132
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#110
Run ExplRExp	#3	#104
PPAExp	#40	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#46	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#90
TackleTak	-	#131

UNLV Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 61%, Pass: 39%
CategoryCat	UNLV Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#75
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#83
PPAExp	#30	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#7	#58
F7 HavocF7	#29	#99
DB HavocDB	#42	#99

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

NEV 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 14
UNLV -17.5 (54.5)
UNLV won vs Nevada this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Nevada last year (42-17)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2024 (38-14)
UNLV beat Nevada in 2023 (45-27)

NEV's OC Matt Lubick (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis	211	312	68%	2290	16	7	7.3
Chubba Purdy (Tr)	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Brendon Lewis	157	775	8	4.9	67
Savion Red (Tr)	119	687	8	5.8	69
Pat Garwo III	55	246	5	4.5	25
Sean Dollars	47	165	0	3.5	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jaden Smith	62	849	7	13.7	62
Cortez Braham	56	724	4	12.9	57
Marcus Bellon	39	522	4	13.4	63
Caleb Ramseur	8	106	1	13.3	44

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kane Ioane (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	0	1	6
Drue Watts	65	5	1	0	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Stone Combs	58	3	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Henry Ikahihifo	43	8	4	3	0
Kristopher Ross	29	6	3	3	2
Tongiaki Mateialona	61	9	2	0	2
Jonathan Maldonado	17	3	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Michael Coats Jr.	41	1	0	10
Kitan Crawford (Tr)	76	3	1	6
Chad Brown	47	5	0	6

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	150	252	60%	1941	19	5	7.7
Matthew Sluka (Tr)	21	48	44%	318	6	1	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jai'Den Thomas	161	915	7	5.7	54
Hajj-Malik Williams (Tr)	161	851	9	5.3	71
Kylin James (Tr)	89	653	5	7.3	86
Greg Burrell	66	370	3	5.6	42

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	79	1041	11	13.2	55
Jacob De Jesus	36	512	3	14.2	43
Jaden Bradley (Tr)	9	173	1	19.2	42
Kaleo Ballungay	17	152	6	8.9	29

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Jett Elad	84	5	1	2	6
Jalen Catalon (Tr)	77	5	2	1	3
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Fisher Camac	46	15	8	1	5
Antonio Doyle Jr. (Tr)	56	8	7	4	3
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard	135	17	4	4	12
Johnathan Baldwin	68	9	4	0	10
Cameron Oliver	33	1	1	0	10