Purdue at Oregon State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (8:30 PM EDT)
Oregon State -1.5 (51.0) (-118) Open: 0.0
Oregon State 38 - Purdue: 21

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ORST 2nd straight Home Game
ORST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Oregon State -9 (SP+ ORST -10)
Projected Score: PUR: 22 - ORST: 31 (53)
ORST Win prob: 50% | Cover: 47%
PUR Travel: 1859 miles, 3 hrs ahead

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	15.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	39.9	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	15.8	15.5	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11
ORST Defense	12	29.9	30.1	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	39.9	45.8	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39
ORST Offense	12	24.3	29.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22 Oregon State: -8.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2 Oregon State: -6.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.8

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 31
Purdue 22

Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 25
Purdue 24

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Oregon State 35
Purdue 23

Total Points: 58

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Oregon State	38	Purdue	21	Oregon State -1.5	Oregon State	51.0	Over
2021	09/04	Purdue	30	Oregon State	21	Purdue -7	Purdue	67.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	1	1	1 Overs
Purdue	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 2

(#120) PUR at (#113) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	ORST
Power RatePwr	#120	#113
SP+SP+	#121	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#98
OffenseOff	#91	#55
DefenseDef	#132	#131
Spec TeamsST	#66	#28
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#74

Purdue Notes(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORST Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#131
SuccessSuc	#96	#125
ExplosiveExp	#117	#31
PPAPPA	#112	#117
PowerPwr	#94	#129
SP+SP+	#116	#107
Pts POPPO	#115	#117
HavocHav	#131	#115

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#84	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#126
Run ExplRExp	#130	#55
PPAExp	#108	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#108
TackleTak	-	#84

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#41
PPAExp	#103	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#101
F7 HavocF7	#128	#122
DB HavocDB	#118	#75

Oregon State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#55	#132
SuccessSuc	#59	#129
ExplosiveExp	#124	#112
PPAPPA	#87	#134
PowerPwr	#79	#134
SP+SP+	#73	#110
Pts POPPO	#75	#134
HavocHav	#56	#125

Oregon State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#50	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#120
Run ExplRExp	#65	#124
PPAExp	#25	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#106
TackleTak	-	#111

Oregon State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#88
PPAExp	#125	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#97
F7 HavocF7	#50	#109
DB HavocDB	#84	#125

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 73°

Rematch from Week 4
Oregon State -1.5 (51.0)
Oregon State won vs Purdue this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Oregon State beat Purdue last year (38-21)

PUR's OC (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Ben Gulbranson	78	128	61%	943	4	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Zakaih Saez	24	3	1	2	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Andre Jordan	27	2	4
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4