San José State at Oregon State - 2024 Matchup Preview

San José State Spartans at Oregon State Beavers

Saturday, November 9th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Oregon State -3.0 (58.5) (-170) Open: -3.5 | 55.5
San José State 24 - Oregon State: 13

Spartans (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Ken Niumatalolo (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (25 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SJSU coming off BYE
ORST coming off BYE
Our Line: San José State -1.5 (SP+ SJSU -1)
Projected Score: SJSU: 29 - ORST: 28 (57)
ORST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
SJSU Travel: 506 miles

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (30 - 30 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
SJSU Players
ORST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

San José State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	San José State vs Sacramento State	-2.5	62.5	W 42 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/7	San José State at Air Force	+1.5	43.5	W 17 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/14	San José State vs Kennesaw State	-16.5	41.5	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Fri 9/20	San José State at Washington State	+13.0	55.5	L 52 - 54	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	San José State vs Nevada	-7.0	51.5	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	San José State at Colorado State	+2.5	55.5	L 24 - 31	U	N
Sat 10/19	San José State vs Wyoming	-13.0	53.0	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 10/26	San José State at Fresno State	+6.5	55.0	L 10 - 33	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	San José State at Oregon State	+3.0	58.5	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	San José State vs Boise State	+14.5	62.0	L 21 - 42	O	N
Fri 11/22	San José State vs UNLV	+7.5	59.5	L 16 - 27	U	N
Fri 11/29	San José State vs Stanford	-2.5	54.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Tue 12/24	San José State vs South Florida	+1.5	66.5	L 39 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for San José State's Schedule

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)	28.4	41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)	27.5	42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)	24.3	47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)	29.9	50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SJSU	#71 (.18)	44% (56)		41% (98)	2.27 (133)	88	46% (28)	322	3.6 (96)	#27 (.1)	41% (57)		42% (66)	39% (47)	3.58 (44)	61.5	2.2	2.2
ORST	#87 (.16)	44% (59)		47% (25)	3.34 (20)	189	39% (100)	201	3.87 (75)	#117 (.27)	48% (125)		50% (126)	45% (112)	4.35 (117)	45.7	1.3	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Offense	13	28.4	25.4	43.9%	3.6	2.2	22	410	88	322	3.6	37%	63%	41%	46%	18%	.18
ORST Defense	12	29.9	30.1	48%	4.35	1	-	-	-	-	-	56%	44%	50%	45%	13%	.27

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SJSU Defense	13	27.5	27.6	40.8%	3.58	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	17%	.1
ORST Offense	12	24.3	29.7	43.6%	3.87	1.3	22	391	189	201	4.7	55%	45%	47%	39%	15%	.16

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
San José State	13	26:23	21.7	40%	53%	7	61.5	2.2	2.2	7.2	1.9	2	28.5
Oregon State	12	33:09	22.3	44%	52%	5.1	45.7	1.3	1	3.8	0.6	1	24.9

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Offense	13	37% (131)	41% (98)	24.6	87.9	3.6	13 (105)	-.06 (131)	2.27 (133)	70% (91)	9% (57)	0.81 (127)
ORST Defense	12	56% (125)	50% (126)	-	-	-	-	.23 (120)	3.39 (123)	81% (114)	8% (122)	0.96 (55)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SJSU Defense	13	53% (94)	42% (66)	-	-	-	-	.03 (21)	2.71 (23)	77% (96)	11% (41)	0.86 (16)
ORST Offense	12	55% (33)	47% (25)	40.3	189.2	4.7	29 (18)	.22 (25)	3.34 (20)	76% (46)	9% (50)	0.97 (65)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Offense	13	63% (3)	46% (28)	24.3	42.3	321.8	7.6	13.2	31 (6)	16 (124)	.33 (39)	1.6 (74)	30% (53)	34% (46)	.38 (49)	9% (131)	2.1 (65)
ORST Defense	12	44% (13)	45% (112)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (117)	.31 (104)	1.5 (41)	27% (126)	33% (102)	.46 (121)	6% (75)	2.1 (70)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SJSU Defense	13	47% (43)	39% (47)	-	-	-	-	-	-	21 (1)	.19 (48)	1.7 (105)	34% (36)	29% (45)	.24 (38)	6% (56)	2.1 (87)
ORST Offense	12	45% (101)	39% (100)	18	30	201.4	6.7	11.2	7 (130)	11 (72)	.09 (125)	1.4 (123)	28% (20)	31% (78)	.16 (123)	6% (84)	1.8 (124)

San José State's Power Ratings
San José State's Power Rating: -8.63 #94
San José State's Offense Rating: 16.16 #102
San José State's Defense Rating: 9.66 #71
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
San José State's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
San José State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.5 #92
San José State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
San José State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #90

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
San José State: -8.63 Oregon State: -8.345

SP+ Ratings Matchup
San José State: -5.5 Oregon State: -6.7

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -8.345 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 3 #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

San José State Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.4
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.6

San José State's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
San José State 29
Oregon State 28

Total Points: 57

Based on Last 4 Games
Oregon State 30
San José State 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
San José State 28
Oregon State 27

Total Points: 55

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.7
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 30.1

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/09	Oregon State	13	San José State	24	Oregon State -3.0	San José State	58.5	Under
2023	09/03	San José State	17	Oregon State	42	Oregon State -14	Oregon State	56.5	Over
2015	09/19	Oregon State	35	San José State	21	Oregon State -8	Oregon State	50.0	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Oregon State	2	2	2 Overs
San José State	1	1	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#94) SJSU at (#113) ORST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SJSU	ORST
Power RatePwr	#94	#113
SP+SP+	#92	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#91	#98
OffenseOff	#86	#55
DefenseDef	#84	#131
Spec TeamsST	#103	#28
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#74

San José State Notes(11/29) Eget torches Stanford, Def forced 3 TOs, big W
(11/25) Eget 4/22, Rgame 33 yds vs UNLV. R D mauled
(11/18) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Boise. Eget fun, Rgame awful
(10/27) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Fresno. Def awful on 3rd down
(10/20) Sloppy, 4 TOs vs Wy. Eget 318 yds, Rgame good
(10/17) Top 20 in tempo, Pass great. Run Off/Def awful
(10/17) QB Eget replaced Brown vs Col St. Played well
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/13) Penalties and Bad Def are a theme in L (Col St)
(9/20) QB Brown is v good. Leads MWC in YDS/TDS
(9/19) WR Nash leads CFB in yds through 1st 3 weeks
(9/17) 3 awful opps, zero run game. Pass game good #'s
San José State Injury Report

Oregon State Notes(12/19) Signed QB Maalik Murphy (Duke)
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good
(9/14) Outclassed by OU. Gave up 500 yds McCoy meh
Oregon State Injury Report

San José State on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	ORST Def
Perf GradePerf	#86	#131
SuccessSuc	#56	#125
ExplosiveExp	#54	#31
PPAPPA	#71	#117
PowerPwr	#102	#129
SP+SP+	#73	#107
Pts POPPO	#96	#117
HavocHav	#110	#115

San José State Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	ORST Def
Run GameRun	#90	#130
Run SuccessRSuc	#98	#126
Run ExplRExp	#127	#55
PPAExp	#131	#120
Run BlockR Blk	#131	-
OL YdsOLY	#133	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#134	#108
TackleTak	-	#84

San José State Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 63%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	SJSU Off	ORST Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#112
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#41
PPAExp	#39	#104
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#130	#101
F7 HavocF7	#57	#122
DB HavocDB	#131	#75

Oregon State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SJSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#55	#84
SuccessSuc	#59	#57
ExplosiveExp	#124	#48
PPAPPA	#87	#27
PowerPwr	#79	#71
SP+SP+	#73	#90
Pts POPPO	#75	#44
HavocHav	#56	#47

Oregon State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SJSU Def
Run GameRun	#50	#96
Run SuccessRSuc	#25	#66
Run ExplRExp	#65	#16
PPAExp	#25	#21
Run BlockR Blk	#40	-
OL YdsOLY	#20	#23
Stuff RateStuff	#11	#30
TackleTak	-	#117

Oregon State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
CategoryCat	ORST Off	SJSU Def
Pass GamePass	#78	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	#100	#47
Pass ExplPExl	#123	#105
PPAExp	#125	#48
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#28	#121
F7 HavocF7	#50	#41
DB HavocDB	#84	#56

Program Comparison
ORST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Down to Average G5

SJSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Reser Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 57°

Rematch from Week 11
Oregon State -3.0 (58.5)
San José State won at Oregon State this year (24-13)

Previous Matchups
San José State beat Oregon State last year (24-13)
Oregon State beat San José State in 2023 (42-17)

SJSU's OC Craig Stutzmann (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Walker Eget	188	328	57%	2504	13	10	7.6
Emmett Brown (Tr)	125	217	58%	1621	16	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Floyd Chalk IV (Tr)	154	721	10	4.7	66
Jabari Bates	59	254	1	4.3	31
Lamar Radcliffe	33	141	1	4.3	18
Walker Eget	29	99	0	3.4	32

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Nash	104	1382	16	13.3	45
Justin Lockhart	53	983	5	18.5	57
Treyshun Hurry (Tr)	28	482	2	17.2	31
Matthew Coleman	34	401	2	11.8	33

View San José State's Full Roster

SJSU's DC Derrick Odum (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3
Robert Rahimi (Tr)	82	6	1	1	5
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5
Taniela Latu	71	7	1	3	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Soane Toia	55	10	5	4	0
John Ward	46	7	3	4	1
Jordan Cobbs	69	8	3	1	1
Jordan Pollard	115	14	2	2	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Dansby	37	1	0	0	6
D.J. Harvey	58	7	2	0	6
Isiah Revis	71	6	1	2	5

ORST's OC Ryan Gunderson (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Ben Gulbranson	78	128	61%	943	4	4	7.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

ORST's DC Keith Heyward (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Zakaih Saez	24	3	1	2	0
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Andre Jordan	27	2	4
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4