Purdue at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans

Friday, November 22nd 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Michigan State -14 (49.0) (-600) Open: -14.5
Michigan State 24 - Purdue: 17 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 13.7 MPH
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Michigan State -16.5 (SP+ MSU -12)
Projected Score: PUR: 17 - MSU: 34 (51)
MSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
PUR Travel: 202 miles

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (20 - 25 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 3, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 3, Good: 1, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#86 (.16)	42% (60)	15.8	45% (51)	3.16 (60)	169	41% (78)	211	3.21 (112)	#74 (.19)	40% (44)	39.9	41% (45)	40% (52)	4.28 (112)	57.6	1.5	1.5
MSU	#131 (.03)	38% (115)	19.3	38% (122)	2.84 (114)	89	38% (99)	197	2.97 (125)	#75 (.19)	44% (95)	26.1	45% (85)	44% (105)	3.89 (76)	59	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	15.8	15.5	42.5%	3.21	1.5	20	380	169	211	4.4	51%	48%	45%	41%	18%	.16
MSU Defense	12	26.1	24.7	43.9%	3.89	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	39.9	45.8	40.2%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	40%	17%	.19
MSU Offense	12	19.3	20.4	37.6%	2.97	1.8	17	286	89	197	2.9	45%	54%	38%	38%	19%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	30:25	20.4	36%	39%	6	57.6	1.5	1.5	5.8	2.8	1	29.4
Michigan State	12	28:05	16.5	30%	50%	6.8	59	1.8	1.3	5.6	2.5	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	51% (55)	45% (51)	38.5	168.8	4.4	20 (61)	.15 (69)	3.16 (60)	54% (133)	12% (118)	0.98 (76)
MSU Defense	12	48% (48)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (83)	3.28 (106)	87% (128)	10% (72)	0.93 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	51% (80)	41% (45)	-	-	-	-	.08 (31)	3 (48)	68% (41)	11% (38)	0.97 (53)
MSU Offense	12	45% (104)	38% (122)	30.9	88.7	2.9	7 (131)	-.03 (131)	2.84 (114)	76% (50)	12% (119)	0.85 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	48% (81)	41% (78)	19.5	32.7	211.2	6.5	10.8	15 (96)	10 (56)	.22 (89)	1.5 (111)	31% (56)	30% (75)	.31 (75)	6% (71)	2.1 (58)
MSU Defense	12	51% (85)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (78)	1.5 (26)	29% (116)	32% (92)	.36 (92)	6% (66)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	49% (56)	40% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (102)	1.8 (121)	33% (50)	32% (93)	.38 (101)	6% (73)	2.2 (96)
MSU Offense	12	54% (33)	38% (99)	18.5	31.8	197.2	6.2	10.7	14 (106)	13 (97)	.17 (101)	1.4 (121)	35% (113)	26% (107)	.16 (115)	7% (105)	2 (97)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 740.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22 Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2 Michigan State: -4.6

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 830.11
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.8

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 34
Purdue 17

Projected Total Points: 51

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.4
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.7

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/22	Michigan State	24	Purdue	17	Michigan State	Michigan State -14	Purdue	49.0	Under
2021	11/06	Purdue	40	Michigan State	29	Purdue	Michigan State -2.5	Purdue	53.0	Over
2018	10/27	Michigan State	23	Purdue	13	Michigan State	Purdue -2.5	Michigan State	48.5	Under
2015	10/03	Michigan State	24	Purdue	21	Michigan State	Michigan State -24.5	Purdue	53.0	Under
2014	10/11	Purdue	31	Michigan State	45	Michigan State	Michigan State -21.5	Purdue	0
2013	10/19	Michigan State	14	Purdue	0	Michigan State	Michigan State -21	Purdue	0
2010	11/20	Michigan State	35	Purdue	31	Michigan State
2009	11/14	Purdue	37	Michigan State	40	Michigan State
2008	11/08	Michigan State	21	Purdue	7	Michigan State
2007	11/10	Purdue	31	Michigan State	48	Michigan State
2006	11/04	Michigan State	15	Purdue	17	Purdue
2005	11/05	Purdue	28	Michigan State	21	Purdue
2002	11/16	Michigan State	42	Purdue	45	Purdue
2001	11/17	Purdue	24	Michigan State	14	Purdue
2000	11/10	Michigan State	30	Purdue	10	Michigan State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	10	1	1 Overs
Purdue	5	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 5	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 10	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0

(#120) Purdue Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110
Talent Rating: 740.00 #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.82 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Awful Pass Def Success 50%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Purdue Notes
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful

Purdue Ratings Matchup Michigan State

Power #120

#70

Off #94

#101

Def #134

#75

Talent #45

#34

SP+ #121

#90

SP+ Off #116

#119

SP+ Def #110

#49

Rematch from Week 13
Michigan State -14.0 (49.0)
Michigan State won vs Purdue this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Purdue last year (24-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 43° - Wind: 14 mph

Team Information
Injuries: PUR | MSU
Depth Chart: PUR | MSU
Rosters: PUR | MSU

(#70) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49
Talent Rating: 788.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Poor OL Grades, Poor OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.06 PPO
Good Run Def Success 39%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Michigan State Notes
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)

Purdue's OC (Int)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0
Shamar Rigby	1	1	100%	8	0	0	8.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

Purdue's DC Kevin Kane

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Antonio Stevens	46	3	1	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4

Michigan State's OC Brian Lindgren

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11
Makhi Frazier	7	21	0	3.0	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52
Jaron Glover	15	192	2	12.8	34

View Michigan State's Full Roster

Michigan State's DC Joe Rossi

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Malik Spencer	44	1	0	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0
Alex VanSumeren	16	3	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Malik Spencer	44	1	0	0	2