Purdue at Michigan State - 2024 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Michigan State Spartans

Friday, November 22nd 2024 (8:00 PM EST)
Michigan State -14 (49.0) (-600) Open: -14.5
Michigan State 24 - Purdue: 17 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 19 - 32 (16 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Michigan State -16.5 (SP+ MSU -12)
Projected Score: PUR: 17 - MSU: 34 (51)
MSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
PUR Travel: 202 miles

Spartans (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Jonathan Smith (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (25 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Michigan State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Michigan State vs Florida Atlantic	-12.0	45.0	W 16 - 10	U	N
Sat 9/7	Michigan State at Maryland	+7.5	44.5	W 27 - 24	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Michigan State vs Prairie View A&M	-42.5	53.5	W 40 - 0	U	N
Sat 9/21	Michigan State at Boston College	+4.5	45.5	L 19 - 23	U	Y
Sat 9/28	Michigan State vs Ohio State	+23.5	48.5	L 7 - 38	U	N
Fri 10/4	Michigan State at Oregon	+22.5	53.0	L 10 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Michigan State vs Iowa	+7.0	39.5	W 32 - 20	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Michigan State at Michigan	+3.5	39.0	L 17 - 24	O	N
Sat 11/2	Michigan State vs Indiana	+7.5	53.5	L 10 - 47	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Michigan State at Illinois	+2.0	47.5	L 16 - 38	O	N
Fri 11/22	Michigan State vs Purdue	-14.0	49.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/30	Michigan State vs Rutgers	-1.5	46.5	L 14 - 41	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#86 (.16)	42% (60)	18.8	45% (51)	3.16 (60)	169	41% (78)	211	3.21 (112)	#74 (.19)	40% (44)	31.8	41% (45)	40% (52)	4.28 (112)	57.6	1.5	1.5
MSU	#131 (.03)	38% (115)	24.6	38% (122)	2.84 (114)	89	38% (99)	197	2.97 (125)	#75 (.19)	44% (95)	29.9	45% (85)	44% (105)	3.89 (76)	59	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	18.8	15.8	42.5%	3.21	1.5	20	380	169	211	4.4	51%	48%	45%	41%	18%	.16
MSU Defense	12	29.9	27.8	43.9%	3.89	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	31.8	34.4	40.2%	4.28	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	51%	49%	41%	40%	17%	.19
MSU Offense	12	24.6	24.8	37.6%	2.97	1.8	17	286	89	197	2.9	45%	54%	38%	38%	19%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	30:25	20.4	36%	39%	6	57.6	1.5	1.5	5.8	2.8	1	29.4
Michigan State	12	28:05	16.5	30%	50%	6.8	59	1.8	1.3	5.6	2.5	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	51% (55)	45% (51)	38.5	168.8	4.4	20 (61)	.15 (69)	3.16 (60)	54% (133)	12% (118)	0.98 (76)
MSU Defense	12	48% (48)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (83)	3.28 (106)	87% (128)	10% (72)	0.93 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	51% (80)	41% (45)	-	-	-	-	.08 (31)	3 (48)	68% (41)	11% (38)	0.97 (53)
MSU Offense	12	45% (104)	38% (122)	30.9	88.7	2.9	7 (131)	-.03 (131)	2.84 (114)	76% (50)	12% (119)	0.85 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	48% (81)	41% (78)	19.5	32.7	211.2	6.5	10.8	15 (96)	10 (56)	.22 (89)	1.5 (111)	31% (56)	30% (75)	.31 (75)	6% (71)	2.1 (58)
MSU Defense	12	51% (85)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (78)	1.5 (26)	29% (116)	32% (92)	.36 (92)	6% (66)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	49% (56)	40% (52)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (102)	1.8 (121)	33% (50)	32% (93)	.38 (101)	6% (73)	2.2 (96)
MSU Offense	12	54% (33)	38% (99)	18.5	31.8	197.2	6.2	10.7	14 (106)	13 (97)	.17 (101)	1.4 (121)	35% (113)	26% (107)	.16 (115)	7% (105)	2 (97)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 382.00 #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22 Michigan State: -0.955

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2 Michigan State: -4.6

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -0.955 #70
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 16.47 #101
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.30 #75
2024 Talent Rating: 407.00 #34
Blue Chip Ratio: 15 #31
Michigan State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Michigan State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -4.6 #90
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.0 #119
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.1 #49

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 444.83
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 18.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 31.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.4

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 34
Purdue 17

Projected Total Points: 51

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.8
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.8

Michigan State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 6 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/22	Michigan State	24	Purdue	17	Michigan State -14	Purdue	49.0	Under
2021	11/06	Purdue	40	Michigan State	29	Michigan State -2.5	Purdue	53.0	Over
2018	10/27	Michigan State	23	Purdue	13	Purdue -2.5	Michigan State	48.5	Under
2015	10/03	Michigan State	24	Purdue	21	Michigan State -24.5	Purdue	53.0	Under
2014	10/11	Purdue	31	Michigan State	45	Michigan State -21.5	Purdue	0
2013	10/19	Michigan State	14	Purdue	0	Michigan State -21	Purdue	0
2010	11/20	Michigan State	35	Purdue	31
2009	11/14	Purdue	37	Michigan State	40
2008	11/08	Michigan State	21	Purdue	7
2007	11/10	Purdue	31	Michigan State	48
2006	11/04	Michigan State	15	Purdue	17
2005	11/05	Purdue	28	Michigan State	21
2002	11/16	Michigan State	42	Purdue	45
2001	11/17	Purdue	24	Michigan State	14
2000	11/10	Michigan State	30	Purdue	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	10	1	1 Overs
Purdue	5	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 5	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 10	3 - 3	0 - 3	3 - 0

(#120) PUR at (#70) MSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	MSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#120	#70
SP+SP+	#121	#90
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#107
OffenseOff	#91	#105
DefenseDef	#132	#104
Spec TeamsST	#66	#122
TalentTal	#44	#34
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#31

Purdue Notes(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report

Michigan State Notes(11/24) Nearly gagged to Pur, Chiles bad, Rgame meh
(11/18) Even stats with Ill but killed, 2-13 3rd, No Rgame
(11/2) Rgame not good, awful vs IU. OL owned by IU
(10/29) Fr WR Marsh 3rd in CFB in tgts/Fr per game
(10/19) Big W (Iowa). 468 yds, 212 rush (5.3). Bowl?
(9/26) Most penalized P5 team at 92 ypg in wk 5
(9/23) Chiles 3 INT in rough L @ BC. Rgame poor
(9/18) Injuries are piling up at DB
(9/8) Chiles 363 yds @ MD, still TO prone. Run D great
(8/30) Run game awful LY, OL rebuild, UMass 1K RB
(7/30) 15 in 2 deep from Portal, QB Chiles (Oreg St)
(7/30) Smith and OC from Oreg St, DC from Minn
Michigan State Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#91	#104
SuccessSuc	#60	#95
ExplosiveExp	#109	#24
PPAPPA	#86	#75
PowerPwr	#94	#75
SP+SP+	#116	#49
Pts POPPO	#112	#76
HavocHav	#106	#68

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#84	#29
Run SuccessRSuc	#51	#85
Run ExplRExp	#76	#35
PPAExp	#69	#83
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#60	#106
Stuff RateStuff	#107	#111
TackleTak	-	#31

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#126
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	#105
Pass ExplPExl	#111	#26
PPAExp	#89	#78
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#127
F7 HavocF7	#118	#72
DB HavocDB	#71	#66

Michigan State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#105	#132
SuccessSuc	#115	#44
ExplosiveExp	#119	#103
PPAPPA	#131	#74
PowerPwr	#101	#134
SP+SP+	#119	#110
Pts POPPO	#125	#112
HavocHav	#115	#48

Michigan State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#31	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#122	#45
Run ExplRExp	#124	#53
PPAExp	#131	#31
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#114	#48
Stuff RateStuff	#103	#50
TackleTak	-	#111

Michigan State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 50%
CategoryCat	MSU Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#107	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#99	#52
Pass ExplPExl	#121	#121
PPAExp	#101	#102
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#126	#97
F7 HavocF7	#119	#38
DB HavocDB	#105	#73

Program Comparison
MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'24 Profile: Down to Average G5

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 13
Michigan State -14.0 (49.0)
Michigan State won vs Purdue this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Purdue in 2024 (24-17)

PUR's OC Graham Harrell (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4

MSU's OC Brian Lindgren (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	192	324	59%	2415	13	12	7.5
Tommy Schuster (Tr)	20	29	69%	202	0	0	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kay'Ron Adams	133	649	2	4.9	63
Nathan Carter	116	499	5	4.3	60
Aidan Chiles (Tr)	96	234	3	2.4	26
Nick Marsh	4	23	0	5.8	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nick Marsh	41	649	3	15.8	77
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Jack Velling (Tr)	36	411	1	11.4	34
Aziah Johnson	16	276	2	17.3	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Joe Rossi (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Nikai Martinez (Tr)	51	3	0	1	2
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Jordan Turner (Tr)	66	11	3	4	1
Anthony Jones (Tr)	25	4	2	5	0
Ken Talley	6	2	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Charles Brantley	27	2	0	0	7
Edward Woods	49	4	1	2	3
Jordan Hall	24	1	0	1	2