Purdue at Wisconsin - 2024 Matchup Preview
Purdue logo Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin BadgersWisconsin logo
Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -12 (44.5) (-485)  Open: -10.0
Wisconsin 52 - Purdue: 6  (Big Ten)

 
Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -23.5   (SP+ WIS -19)

Projected Score: PUR: 12 - WIS: 36 (48)
WIS Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
PUR Travel: 223 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (21 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 3) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
 
Purdue's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Purdue vs Indiana State-35.552.5W 49 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Purdue vs Notre Dame+11.545.5L 7 - 66ON
Sat 9/21 Purdue at Oregon State+1.551.0L 21 - 38ON
Sat 9/28 Purdue vs Nebraska+10.047.5L 10 - 28UN
Sat 10/5 Purdue at Wisconsin+12.044.5L 6 - 52ON
Sat 10/12 Purdue at Illinois+22.547.5L 49 - 50OY
Fri 10/18 Purdue vs Oregon+30.061.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2 Purdue vs Northwestern-3.044.5L 20 - 26ON
Sat 11/9 Purdue at Ohio State+37.555.5L 0 - 45UN
Sat 11/16 Purdue vs Penn State+30.051.5L 10 - 49ON
Fri 11/22 Purdue at Michigan State+14.049.0L 17 - 24UY
Sat 11/30 Purdue at Indiana+28.556.5L 0 - 66ON

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule
Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 8/30 Wisconsin vs Western Michigan-24.057.0W 28 - 14UN
Sat 9/7 Wisconsin vs South Dakota-17.544.5W 27 - 13UN
Sat 9/14 Wisconsin vs Alabama+15.551.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28 Wisconsin at USC+14.050.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/5 Wisconsin vs Purdue-12.044.5W 52 - 6OY
Sat 10/12 Wisconsin at Rutgers+1.043.5W 42 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Wisconsin vs Northwestern-9.542.5W 23 - 3UY
Sat 10/26 Wisconsin vs Penn State+6.547.0L 13 - 28UN
Sat 11/2 Wisconsin at Iowa+2.540.0L 10 - 42ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Wisconsin vs Oregon+13.549.5L 13 - 16UY
Sat 11/23 Wisconsin at Nebraska+1.540.5L 25 - 44ON
Fri 11/29 Wisconsin vs Minnesota+1.540.5L 7 - 24UN

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Wisconsin's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)15.842% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)39.949% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)22.646% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)23.145% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PUR#112 (.11)41% (96)42% (90)3.04 (65)11640% (93)1843.34 (115)#134 (.39)49% (129)49% (120)50% (129)4.82 (134)51.81.60.4
WIS#97 (.14)42% (73)46% (39)3.16 (46)15438% (107)1974.02 (57)#80 (.18)43% (88)45% (86)42% (81)4.17 (105)37.51.51



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Offense1215.815.540.8%3.341.615299116184446%53%42%40%22%.11
WIS Defense1223.120.443.4%4.171 - - - - - 54%45%45%42%12%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PUR Defense1239.945.849.3%4.820.4 - - - - - 53%47%49%50%12%.39
WIS Offense1222.621.442.2%4.021.5193511541974.451%49%46%38%17%.14

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Purdue1226:5014.631%28%5.551.81.60.45.21.8026.8
Wisconsin1229:2118.836%60%5.337.51.513.51.4027.7
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Offense1246% (94)42% (90)28.8115.549 (125).04 (108)3.04 (65)59% (126)14% (128)0.8 (130)
WIS Defense1254% (110)45% (86) - - - - .15 (81)3.27 (105)68% (36)7% (130)0.97 (60)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PUR Defense1253% (96)49% (120) - - - - .32 (134)3.39 (120)76% (79)8% (109)1.15 (124)
WIS Offense1251% (70)46% (39)34.9154.14.419 (73).12 (75)3.16 (46)75% (58)8% (37)0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Offense1253% (40)40% (93)15.827.4183.96.711.713 (116)9 (48).16 (103)1.5 (92)32% (78)31% (72).49 (14)8% (118)2.1 (29)
WIS Defense1245% (22)42% (81) - - - - - - 4 (125).25 (76)1.3 (5)28% (123)28% (32).24 (42)5% (92)1.8 (19)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PUR Defense1247% (40)50% (129) - - - - - - 4 (125).48 (130)1.6 (88)28% (115)41% (134).63 (134)4% (125)2.1 (90)
WIS Offense1249% (65)38% (107)17.330.4196.76.511.414 (108)10 (63).16 (102)1.5 (100)30% (34)27% (111).15 (128)9% (132)1.8 (122)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22   Wisconsin: 6.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2   Wisconsin: 3.0




Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.8

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Wisconsin 36
Purdue 12


Total Points: 48

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/05Wisconsin52Purdue6WisconsinWisconsin -12Wisconsin44.5Over
202309/22Purdue17Wisconsin38WisconsinWisconsin -5.5Wisconsin54.0Over
202210/22Wisconsin35Purdue24WisconsinWisconsin -1.5Wisconsin51.5Over
202110/23Purdue13Wisconsin30WisconsinWisconsin -3.5Wisconsin41.0Over
201911/23Wisconsin45Purdue24WisconsinWisconsin -24.5Purdue49.0Over
201811/17Purdue44Wisconsin47WisconsinPurdue -3.5Wisconsin56.0Over
201710/14Wisconsin17Purdue9WisconsinWisconsin -17Purdue49.5Under
201611/19Purdue20Wisconsin49WisconsinWisconsin -26.5Wisconsin48.5Over
201510/17Wisconsin24Purdue7WisconsinWisconsin -20.5Purdue51.5Under
201411/08Purdue16Wisconsin34WisconsinWisconsin -15.5Wisconsin0
201309/21Wisconsin41Purdue10WisconsinWisconsin -23Wisconsin0
201210/13Purdue14Wisconsin38Wisconsin
201111/05Wisconsin62Purdue17Wisconsin
201011/06Purdue13Wisconsin34Wisconsin
200910/31Wisconsin37Purdue0Wisconsin
200610/21Purdue3Wisconsin24Wisconsin
200510/22Wisconsin31Purdue20Wisconsin
200410/16Purdue17Wisconsin20Wisconsin
200310/18Wisconsin23Purdue26Purdue
200010/20Wisconsin24Purdue30Purdue
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Wisconsin1887 Overs
Purdue232 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 113 - 83 - 40 - 4
Road Teams11 - 98 - 34 - 04 - 3

(#120) Purdue Info
Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 41%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Awful in Scoring Position 3.34 PPO
Poor Run Success 42%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 49%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.82 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 49%
Awful Pass Def Success 50%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Purdue has lost 3 straight
Purdue has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 0 - 6 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread )

Purdue Notes
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful

Purdue Highlights

Purdue Deficiencies
Purdue has a really bad Offense
Purdue Fumbles a Lot (#1)
Purdue Can Not Run the Ball (#107)
Purdue offense is not Explosive (#69)
Purdue offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#90)
Purdue offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Purdue Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Purdue has a bad defense (#95)
Purdue gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#59)
Purdue Does Not Stuff Runs (#92)
Purdue has a bad defensive line (#109)
Purdue has a bad red zone defense (#60)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatWISPUR
OverallOver#55#88
OffenseOff#59#74
DefenseDef#66#111
Special TeamsST#14#55
PassingPass#82#57
RushingRush#51#62
Run BlockRBLK#33#60
Pass BlockPBLK#6#83
Route RunningWR Rt#70#61
TacklingTkl#12#96
Run DefenseR Def#98#89
Pass Rush DefPRush#58#83
Coverage DefCov#31#111

Rematch from Week 6
Wisconsin -12.0 (44.5)
Wisconsin won vs Purdue this year (52-6)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Purdue last year (52-6)
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2023 (38-17)
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2022 (35-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: PUR | WIS
Depth Chart: PUR | WIS
Rosters: PUR | WIS
(#45) Wisconsin Info
Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.17 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 45%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Wisconsin has lost 2 straight
Wisconsin has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 3 - 4 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Wisconsin Notes
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games

Wisconsin Highlights
Wisconsin defense does not give up big plays (#98)

Wisconsin Deficiencies
Wisconsin offense is not Explosive (#76)
Wisconsin pass game is really bad (#30)
Wisconsin does not Sack the QB (#13)
Wisconsin has a bad defensive line (#72)
Wisconsin has a bad red zone defense (#11)


  
Purdue's OC (Int)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hudson Card14424858%1641976.6
Ryan Browne437657%532427.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Devin Mockobee13868745.063
Reggie Love III (Tr)8337224.522
Ryan Browne5015503.123
Elijah Jackson697116.269
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Max Klare51685413.462
Jahmal Edrine23365215.953
Jaron Tibbs25305212.238
Devin Mockobee17170110.021

View Purdue's Full Roster
Purdue's DC Kevin Kane
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Yanni Karlaftis572121
Will Heldt5610550
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kydran Jenkins8313751
Will Heldt5610550
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Cole Brevard196200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Thieneman1045106
Nyland Green (Tr)232205
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)402014

Wisconsin's OC Phil Longo
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Braedyn Locke16429655%193613106.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)436863%422106.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)190864104.555
Darrion Dupree7931714.032
Cade Yacamelli3327428.345
Chez Mellusi5623234.121
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Vinny Anthony39672417.263
Will Pauling4240739.728
Trech Kekahuna25339213.669
CJ Williams16248215.550

View Wisconsin's Full Roster
Wisconsin's DC Mike Tressel
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Christian Alliegro665301
Preston Zachman583004
Jake Chaney554120
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Hills (Tr)266321
Christian Alliegro665301
John Pius (Tr)214330
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)122200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Hunter Wohler711006
Ben Barten220015
Nyzier Fourqurean512015