Purdue at Wisconsin - 2024 Matchup Preview

Purdue Boilermakers at Wisconsin Badgers

Saturday, October 5th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Wisconsin -12 (44.5) (-485) Open: -10.0
Wisconsin 52 - Purdue: 6 (Big Ten)

Boilermakers (1 - 11) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Ryan Walters (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 40 (16 - 46 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1 - 11 (#132)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 14.1 MPH
PUR is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Wisconsin -23.5 (SP+ WIS -19)
Projected Score: PUR: 12 - WIS: 36 (48)
WIS Win prob: 79% | Cover: 45%
PUR Travel: 223 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Badgers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Luke Fickell (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 23 - 23 (21 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
PUR Players
WIS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Purdue's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Purdue vs Indiana State	-35.5	52.5	W 49 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Purdue vs Notre Dame	+11.5	45.5	L 7 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/21	Purdue at Oregon State	+1.5	51.0	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 9/28	Purdue vs Nebraska	+10.0	47.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 10/5	Purdue at Wisconsin	+12.0	44.5	L 6 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/12	Purdue at Illinois	+22.5	47.5	L 49 - 50	O	Y
Fri 10/18	Purdue vs Oregon	+30.0	61.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Purdue vs Northwestern	-3.0	44.5	L 20 - 26	O	N
Sat 11/9	Purdue at Ohio State	+37.5	55.5	L 0 - 45	U	N
Sat 11/16	Purdue vs Penn State	+30.0	51.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
Fri 11/22	Purdue at Michigan State	+14.0	49.0	L 17 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Purdue at Indiana	+28.5	56.5	L 0 - 66	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Purdue's Schedule

Wisconsin's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Wisconsin vs Western Michigan	-24.0	57.0	W 28 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/7	Wisconsin vs South Dakota	-17.5	44.5	W 27 - 13	U	N
Sat 9/14	Wisconsin vs Alabama	+15.5	51.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Wisconsin at USC	+14.0	50.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/5	Wisconsin vs Purdue	-12.0	44.5	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Wisconsin at Rutgers	+1.0	43.5	W 42 - 7	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Wisconsin vs Northwestern	-9.5	42.5	W 23 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Wisconsin vs Penn State	+6.5	47.0	L 13 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/2	Wisconsin at Iowa	+2.5	40.0	L 10 - 42	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Wisconsin vs Oregon	+13.5	49.5	L 13 - 16	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Wisconsin at Nebraska	+1.5	40.5	L 25 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/29	Wisconsin vs Minnesota	+1.5	40.5	L 7 - 24	U	N

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)	15.8	42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)	39.9	49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)	22.6	46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)	23.1	45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
PUR	#112 (.11)	41% (96)		42% (90)	3.04 (65)	116	40% (93)	184	3.34 (115)	#134 (.39)	49% (129)		49% (120)	50% (129)	4.82 (134)	51.8	1.6	0.4
WIS	#97 (.14)	42% (73)		46% (39)	3.16 (46)	154	38% (107)	197	4.02 (57)	#80 (.18)	43% (88)		45% (86)	42% (81)	4.17 (105)	37.5	1.5	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Offense	12	15.8	15.5	40.8%	3.34	1.6	15	299	116	184	4	46%	53%	42%	40%	22%	.11
WIS Defense	12	23.1	20.4	43.4%	4.17	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	45%	45%	42%	12%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
PUR Defense	12	39.9	45.8	49.3%	4.82	0.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	49%	50%	12%	.39
WIS Offense	12	22.6	21.4	42.2%	4.02	1.5	19	351	154	197	4.4	51%	49%	46%	38%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Purdue	12	26:50	14.6	31%	28%	5.5	51.8	1.6	0.4	5.2	1.8	0	26.8
Wisconsin	12	29:21	18.8	36%	60%	5.3	37.5	1.5	1	3.5	1.4	0	27.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Offense	12	46% (94)	42% (90)	28.8	115.5	4	9 (125)	.04 (108)	3.04 (65)	59% (126)	14% (128)	0.8 (130)
WIS Defense	12	54% (110)	45% (86)	-	-	-	-	.15 (81)	3.27 (105)	68% (36)	7% (130)	0.97 (60)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
PUR Defense	12	53% (96)	49% (120)	-	-	-	-	.32 (134)	3.39 (120)	76% (79)	8% (109)	1.15 (124)
WIS Offense	12	51% (70)	46% (39)	34.9	154.1	4.4	19 (73)	.12 (75)	3.16 (46)	75% (58)	8% (37)	0.8 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Offense	12	53% (40)	40% (93)	15.8	27.4	183.9	6.7	11.7	13 (116)	9 (48)	.16 (103)	1.5 (92)	32% (78)	31% (72)	.49 (14)	8% (118)	2.1 (29)
WIS Defense	12	45% (22)	42% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.25 (76)	1.3 (5)	28% (123)	28% (32)	.24 (42)	5% (92)	1.8 (19)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
PUR Defense	12	47% (40)	50% (129)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (125)	.48 (130)	1.6 (88)	28% (115)	41% (134)	.63 (134)	4% (125)	2.1 (90)
WIS Offense	12	49% (65)	38% (107)	17.3	30.4	196.7	6.5	11.4	14 (108)	10 (63)	.16 (102)	1.5 (100)	30% (34)	27% (111)	.15 (128)	9% (132)	1.8 (122)

Purdue's Power Ratings
Purdue's Power Rating: -18.22 #120
Purdue's Offense Rating: 16.91 #94
Purdue's Defense Rating: 22.82 #134
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 12% #35
Purdue's 2024 Expected Record: 1.0 - 11.0
Purdue's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.2 #121
Purdue's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #116
Purdue's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.6 #110

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -18.22 Wisconsin: 6.08

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Purdue: -16.2 Wisconsin: 3.0

Wisconsin's Power Ratings
Wisconsin's Power Rating: 6.08 #45
Wisconsin's Offense Rating: 19.90 #67
Wisconsin's Defense Rating: 9.97 #73
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #29
Wisconsin's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Wisconsin's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #60
Wisconsin's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Wisconsin's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.8 #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Purdue Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 39.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 45.8

Purdue's 2024 Record
Record: 1 - 11
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 8 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Wisconsin 36
Purdue 12

Total Points: 48

Based on Last 4 Games
Wisconsin 29
Purdue 23

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Wisconsin 32
Purdue 19

Total Points: 51

Wisconsin Scoring
Offense: 22.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.4
Defense: 23.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.4

Wisconsin's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/05	Wisconsin	52	Purdue	6	Wisconsin -12	Wisconsin	44.5	Over
2023	09/22	Purdue	17	Wisconsin	38	Wisconsin -5.5	Wisconsin	54.0	Over
2022	10/22	Wisconsin	35	Purdue	24	Wisconsin -1.5	Wisconsin	51.5	Over
2021	10/23	Purdue	13	Wisconsin	30	Wisconsin -3.5	Wisconsin	41.0	Over
2019	11/23	Wisconsin	45	Purdue	24	Wisconsin -24.5	Purdue	49.0	Over
2018	11/17	Purdue	44	Wisconsin	47	Purdue -3.5	Wisconsin	56.0	Over
2017	10/14	Wisconsin	17	Purdue	9	Wisconsin -17	Purdue	49.5	Under
2016	11/19	Purdue	20	Wisconsin	49	Wisconsin -26.5	Wisconsin	48.5	Over
2015	10/17	Wisconsin	24	Purdue	7	Wisconsin -20.5	Purdue	51.5	Under
2014	11/08	Purdue	16	Wisconsin	34	Wisconsin -15.5	Wisconsin	0
2013	09/21	Wisconsin	41	Purdue	10	Wisconsin -23	Wisconsin	0
2012	10/13	Purdue	14	Wisconsin	38
2011	11/05	Wisconsin	62	Purdue	17
2010	11/06	Purdue	13	Wisconsin	34
2009	10/31	Wisconsin	37	Purdue	0
2006	10/21	Purdue	3	Wisconsin	24
2005	10/22	Wisconsin	31	Purdue	20
2004	10/16	Purdue	17	Wisconsin	20
2003	10/18	Wisconsin	23	Purdue	26
2000	10/20	Wisconsin	24	Purdue	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wisconsin	18	8	7 Overs
Purdue	2	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 11	3 - 8	3 - 4	0 - 4
Road Teams	11 - 9	8 - 3	4 - 0	4 - 3

(#120) PUR at (#45) WIS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	PUR	WIS
Power RatePwr	#120	#45
SP+SP+	#121	#60
Perf GradeGrade	#123	#78
OffenseOff	#91	#72
DefenseDef	#132	#86
Spec TeamsST	#66	#15
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#35	#29

Purdue Notes(12/8) Hired HC Barry Odom (UNLV)
(12/1) HC Walters fired, 5-19 in 2 years
(11/24) Card torched MSU. Rgame P4 worst? Fought hard
(10/19) Never ever ever bet this dogshit team again
(10/19) QB Brown sucks, Rgame good vs Oregon, shutout
(10/18) QB Brown likely over Card from here out
(10/12) QB Browne/Rgame torched Ill. Def awful
(10/7) P4's worst team. Does Walters survive after this?
(10/3) Fired OC Harrell after 4 games
(9/28) Run D better vs Neb. Off was awful, esp run
(9/23) Run Def all 341 (6.0 ypc) @ Oreg St, Card awful
(9/15) Run Def awful, 364 (8.5 ypc), Off 25/38 (1.5) vs ND
Purdue Injury Report

Wisconsin Notes(12/16) Signed QB Billy Edwards (MD)
(12/6) Hired OC Jeff Grimes (Bay/KU)
(11/29) How does Fickell address the offense for '25
(11/29) 5 str L's to finish. Offense is untenable. Bad vibes
(11/29) 22 year bowl streak over, was CFB longest
(11/23) 4 str L's, Locke good, Def torched by Nebraska
(11/18) Fight w/ Oreg, Locke awful, Rgame bad, OC fired
(11/17) OC Longo fired after Oregon loss
(11/2) Locke is awful. Rgame avg at best. Longo Off bad
(10/27) Rgame awful vs PSU, Lock bad INT. < 300 yds
(10/22) Def stop rate is 75% (#10) into PSU/Iowa games
(10/19) Off enough, Def great vs NW. Locke meh
Wisconsin Injury Report

Purdue on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	WIS Def
Perf GradePerf	#91	#86
SuccessSuc	#96	#88
ExplosiveExp	#117	#11
PPAPPA	#112	#80
PowerPwr	#94	#73
SP+SP+	#116	#22
Pts POPPO	#115	#105
HavocHav	#131	#124

Purdue Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	WIS Def
Run GameRun	#84	#123
Run SuccessRSuc	#90	#86
Run ExplRExp	#130	#60
PPAExp	#108	#81
Run BlockR Blk	#77	-
OL YdsOLY	#65	#105
Stuff RateStuff	#97	#86
TackleTak	-	#13

Purdue Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	PUR Off	WIS Def
Pass GamePass	#72	#41
Pass SuccessPSuc	#93	#81
Pass ExplPExl	#92	#5
PPAExp	#103	#76
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#99	#66
F7 HavocF7	#128	#130
DB HavocDB	#118	#92

Wisconsin on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	PUR Def
Perf GradePerf	#72	#132
SuccessSuc	#73	#129
ExplosiveExp	#130	#112
PPAPPA	#97	#134
PowerPwr	#67	#134
SP+SP+	#100	#110
Pts POPPO	#57	#134
HavocHav	#90	#125

Wisconsin Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	PUR Def
Run GameRun	#71	#112
Run SuccessRSuc	#39	#120
Run ExplRExp	#129	#124
PPAExp	#75	#134
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#46	#120
Stuff RateStuff	#43	#106
TackleTak	-	#111

Wisconsin Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 49%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	WIS Off	PUR Def
Pass GamePass	#102	#134
Pass SuccessPSuc	#107	#129
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#88
PPAExp	#102	#130
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#6	#97
F7 HavocF7	#37	#109
DB HavocDB	#132	#125

Program Comparison
WIS 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

PUR 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Camp Randall Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 14 mph

Rematch from Week 6
Wisconsin -12.0 (44.5)
Wisconsin won vs Purdue this year (52-6)

Previous Matchups
Wisconsin beat Purdue last year (52-6)
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2023 (38-17)
Wisconsin beat Purdue in 2022 (35-24)

PUR's OC (Int) (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hudson Card	144	248	58%	1641	9	7	6.6
Ryan Browne	43	76	57%	532	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Devin Mockobee	138	687	4	5.0	63
Reggie Love III (Tr)	83	372	2	4.5	22
Ryan Browne	50	155	0	3.1	23
Elijah Jackson	6	97	1	16.2	69

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Max Klare	51	685	4	13.4	62
Jahmal Edrine	23	365	2	15.9	53
Jaron Tibbs	25	305	2	12.2	38
Devin Mockobee	17	170	1	10.0	21

View Purdue's Full Roster

PUR's DC Kevin Kane (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Yanni Karlaftis	57	2	1	2	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kydran Jenkins	83	13	7	5	1
Will Heldt	56	10	5	5	0
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Cole Brevard	19	6	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Thieneman	104	5	1	0	6
Nyland Green (Tr)	23	2	2	0	5
Kyndrich Breedlove (Tr)	40	2	0	1	4

WIS's OC Phil Longo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Braedyn Locke	164	296	55%	1936	13	10	6.5
Tyler Van Dyke (Tr)	43	68	63%	422	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tawee Walker (Tr)	190	864	10	4.5	55
Darrion Dupree	79	317	1	4.0	32
Cade Yacamelli	33	274	2	8.3	45
Chez Mellusi	56	232	3	4.1	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vinny Anthony	39	672	4	17.2	63
Will Pauling	42	407	3	9.7	28
Trech Kekahuna	25	339	2	13.6	69
CJ Williams	16	248	2	15.5	50

View Wisconsin's Full Roster

WIS's DC Mike Tressel (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	0	6
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
Preston Zachman	58	3	0	0	4
Jake Chaney	55	4	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Elijah Hills (Tr)	26	6	3	2	1
Christian Alliegro	66	5	3	0	1
John Pius (Tr)	21	4	3	3	0
Sebastian Cheeks (Tr)	12	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Hunter Wohler	71	1	0	6
Ben Barten	22	0	1	5
Nyzier Fourqurean	51	2	1	5