Oregon State at Air Force - 2024 Matchup Preview

Oregon State Beavers at Air Force Falcons

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Oregon State -3 (44.5) (-142) Open: -7.0
Air Force 28 - Oregon State: 0

Beavers (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Trent Bray (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 24 - 30 (17 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)

Wind: 13.9 MPH
AFA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Oregon State -4 (SP+ ORST -5)
Projected Score: ORST: 24 - AFA: 20 (48)
ORST Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ORST Travel: 1022 miles, 1 hrs behind

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Troy Calhoun (130 - 82)
Avg Score : 19 - 23 (19 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)

Matchup
Schedules
ORST Players
AFA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oregon State's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Oregon State vs Idaho State	-29.5	57.5	W 38 - 15	U	N
Sat 9/7	Oregon State at San Diego State	-5.5	54.5	W 21 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Oregon State vs Oregon	+16.0	50.0	L 14 - 49	O	N
Sat 9/21	Oregon State vs Purdue	-1.5	51.0	W 38 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Oregon State vs Colorado State	-10.0	47.0	W 39 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/12	Oregon State at Nevada	-3.0	47.0	L 37 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/19	Oregon State vs UNLV	+6.5	61.0	L 25 - 33	U	N
Sat 10/26	Oregon State at California	+13.0	51.0	L 7 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Oregon State vs San José State	-3.0	58.5	L 13 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/16	Oregon State at Air Force	-3.0	44.5	L 0 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/23	Oregon State vs Washington State	+11.0	57.0	W 41 - 38	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Oregon State at Boise State	+17.5	58.5	L 18 - 34	U	Y

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 0

Predictions for Oregon State's Schedule

Air Force's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Merrimack	-30.5	47.5	W 21 - 6	U	N
Sat 9/7	Air Force vs San José State	-1.5	43.5	L 7 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Baylor	+17.5	40.5	L 3 - 31	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Air Force at Wyoming	-4.0	33.5	L 19 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force vs Navy	+10.0	37.0	L 7 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force at New Mexico	+7.0	56.0	L 37 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/19	Air Force vs Colorado State	+6.0	43.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Air Force at Army	+18.0	38.5	L 3 - 20	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Air Force vs Fresno State	+9.5	40.5	W 36 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Air Force vs Oregon State	+3.0	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at Nevada	+3.0	44.5	W 22 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Air Force at San Diego State	-6.5	43.5	W 31 - 20	O	Y

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST	#13 (.32)	48% (14)	24.3	52% (6)	3.24 (43)	167	45% (39)	242	4.78 (11)	#39 (.14)	44% (91)	29.9	46% (102)	43% (81)	3.42 (37)	50.1	1	1.5
AFA	#26 (.28)	45% (31)	18.9	46% (34)	3.48 (8)	281	41% (74)	85	4.05 (52)	#28 (.12)	39% (38)	23.3	37% (16)	42% (79)	3.96 (85)	24.8	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ORST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Offense	13	24.3	16.6	48.1%	4.78	1	21	409	167	242	4.9	52%	47%	52%	45%	14%	.32
AFA Defense	13	23.3	17.7	39.3%	3.96	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	37%	42%	14%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ORST Defense	13	29.9	29.6	43.8%	3.42	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	53%	46%	43%	18%	.14
AFA Offense	13	18.9	18.7	45.5%	4.05	1.3	20	366	281	85	5.1	85%	14%	46%	41%	9%	.28

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oregon State	13	30:39	21.4	39%	57%	5.5	50.1	1	1.5	5.5	2.7	2	29.7
Air Force	13	33:26	19.6	46%	68%	3	24.8	1.3	1.1	4.5	2	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Offense	13	52% (51)	52% (6)	34.2	167.1	4.9	26 (30)	.23 (26)	3.24 (43)	73% (79)	9% (43)	0.97 (85)
AFA Defense	13	49% (58)	37% (16)	-	-	-	-	.06 (26)	2.67 (13)	79% (106)	9% (93)	0.99 (61)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ORST Defense	13	46% (20)	46% (102)	-	-	-	-	.09 (35)	2.9 (36)	84% (122)	10% (61)	0.84 (10)
AFA Offense	13	85% (1)	46% (34)	54.7	280.6	5.1	36 (4)	.27 (14)	3.48 (8)	80% (19)	8% (22)	1.02 (56)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Offense	13	47% (82)	45% (39)	17.1	29.2	242.2	8.3	14.2	26 (31)	8 (30)	.44 (21)	1.8 (17)	32% (77)	37% (17)	.56 (9)	6% (48)	2.2 (24)
AFA Defense	13	50% (80)	42% (79)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.21 (36)	1.5 (19)	34% (44)	29% (45)	.34 (85)	5% (103)	2 (59)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ORST Defense	13	53% (114)	43% (81)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.26 (60)	1.6 (61)	33% (54)	33% (111)	.3 (59)	7% (22)	2 (46)
AFA Offense	13	14% (133)	41% (74)	4.2	8.1	85	10.5	20.1	7 (129)	6 (14)	.51 (9)	2.3 (1)	23% (1)	27% (93)	.39 (48)	2% (1)	2.3 (7)

Oregon State's Power Ratings
Oregon State's Power Rating: -14.99 #113
Oregon State's Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Oregon State's Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
2024 Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Oregon State's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Oregon State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Oregon State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Oregon State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 519
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -14.99 Air Force: -14.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oregon State: -6.7 Air Force: -11.7

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Air Force's Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Air Force's Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
2024 Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Air Force's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Air Force's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 443.33
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Oregon State Scoring
Offense: 24.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.6

Oregon State's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Oregon State 24
Air Force 20

Projected Total Points: 48

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 18.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 23.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

Air Force's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Air Force	28	Oregon State	0	Air Force	Oregon State -3	Air Force	44.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Air Force	1	1	0 Overs
Oregon State	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 0	1 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 1	0 - 0

(#113) Oregon State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.99 #113
Offense Rating: 18.65 #79
Defense Rating: 20.78 #129
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.7 #97
Offense SP+ Rating: 26.1 #73
Defense SP+ Rating: 32.7 #107
Talent Rating: 558.00 #83
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 45%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.87 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Bad DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Awful Defense Success Rate of 48%
Awful in Scoring Position 4.35 PPO
Awful Run Def Success 50%
Awful Pass Def Success 45%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position

Oregon State Notes
(11/29) Def torched by Boise, Off meh, 3-13 on 3rd
(11/29) 1-6 finish in '24 to miss bowl. 25 goal is ?
(11/18) QB Johnson awful, Rgame worse, shutout by AFA?
(11/18) Complete identity crisis. No idea what they want
(10/31) QB McCoy may have lost job to Gulbranson
(10/27) Pass Def abused by Cal. 3 straight L's, going down
(10/12) Run Def abused by Nevada 353 yds, 8.4ypc in L
(10/11) RB Griffin likely out vs Nevada
(10/10) Rgame good vs CSU, 251yds (5.3 ypc), McCoy meh
(9/23) Killed Purdue, rushed for 341 (6 ypc), pass D good

Oregon State Ratings Matchup Air Force

Power #113

#125

Off #79

#112

Def #129

#117

Talent #83

#131

SP+ #97

#111

SP+ Off #73

#120

SP+ Def #107

#76

Rematch from Week 12
Oregon State 3.0 (44.5)
Air Force won vs Oregon State this year (28-0)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Oregon State last year (28-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Falcon Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 50° - Wind: 14 mph

Team Information
Injuries: ORST | AFA
Depth Chart: ORST | AFA
Rosters: ORST | AFA

(#125) Air Force Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -14.77 #125
Offense Rating: 14.34 #112
Defense Rating: 16.43 #117
Overall SP+ Rating: -11.7 #111
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.5 #76
Talent Rating: 198.00 #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 82%, Pass: 18%
Bad Offense Success Rate of 42%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Avg in Scoring Position 4.02 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Awful Pass Success 31%
Bad OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 42%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.97 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 41%
Poor Pass Def Success 43%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Air Force Notes
(11/14) Have found their QB in So. Quentin Hayes
(11/3) QBs Hayes/Johnson vs Army, both bad, Rgame bad
(10/20) QB Busha started, 10-25. Rgame 3.2 ypc in CSU L
(10/18) QBs now 3 co-starters, Busha (orig #1) out of mix
(10/12) Killed by N Mex, Rgame 325 yds but Def torched
(10/8) Market hasn't caught up to how awful AFA is TY
(9/14) 10 pts in 2 losses. 3.2 ypc avg. Bad AFA team TY
(8/11) AF fell apart late LY losing 4 straight
(8/1) Restock year TY, Def rebuild, 6-6 type
(7/30) Calhoun & staff win 9+ games every year since '19

Oregon State's OC Ryan Gunderson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	123	202	61%	1300	3	6	6.4
Gabarri Johnson (Tr)	15	29	52%	174	0	1	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Anthony Hankerson (Tr)	232	1082	15	4.7	83
Jamious Griffin	73	450	4	6.2	33
Gevani McCoy (Tr)	59	328	5	5.6	71
Salahadin Allah	55	258	1	4.7	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Trent Walker	81	901	2	11.1	43
Jermaine Terry II	23	375	1	16.3	43
Darrius Clemons (Tr)	25	292	2	11.7	44
Jeremiah Noga	23	266	0	11.6	30

View Oregon State's Full Roster

Oregon State's DC Keith Heyward

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	0	0	9
Isaiah Chisom	75	5	0	2	0
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Melvin Jordan IV	45	3	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nikko Taylor	46	8	3	7	3
Dexter Foster	43	2	1	2	0
Semisi Saluni	34	5	1	3	2
Oluwaseyi Omotosho	14	1	1	6	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Skyler Thomas	81	0	9
Sailasa Vadrawale	30	1	4
Andre Jordan	27	2	4

Air Force's OC Mike Thiessen

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Quentin Hayes	25	43	58%	455	3	2	10.6
Josh Johnson	6	14	43%	126	1	3	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dylan Carson	138	600	5	4.3	50
Quentin Hayes	126	466	7	3.7	30
Owen Allen	77	335	2	4.4	14
Cade Harris	48	279	4	5.8	30

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cade Harris	23	368	2	16.0	76
Quin Smith	10	207	1	20.7	39
Bruin Fleischmann	5	104	0	20.8	43
James Roberson	5	96	1	19.2	45

View Air Force's Full Roster

Air Force's DC Brian Knorr

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Blake Fletcher	37	5	2	2	1
Trey Williams	31	1	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3
Peyton Zdroik	18	7	3	3	0
Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner	50	8	2	1	2
Blake Fletcher	37	5	2	2	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Williams	31	1	0	0	4
Daniel Grobe	30	5	1	1	3
David Santiago	37	5	4	2	3