New Mexico State at Jacksonville State - 2024 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Jacksonville State GamecocksJacksonville State logo
Wednesday, October 9th 2024 (7:30 PM EDT)
Jacksonville State -21 (58.5) (-1600)  Open: -20.5
Jacksonville State 54 - New Mexico State: 13  (Conference USA)

 
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
NMSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Jacksonville State -20.5   (SP+ JVST -18)

Projected Score: NMSU: 19 - JVST: 39 (60)
JVST Win prob: 92% | Cover: 53%
NMSU Travel: 1217 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gamecocks (9 - 5) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach Rich Rodriguez (18 - 6)
Avg Score : 36 - 26 (39 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 6)
 
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Jacksonville State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Jacksonville State vs Coastal Carolina-3.554.5L 27 - 55ON
Sat 9/7 Jacksonville State at Louisville+27.556.5L 14 - 49ON
Sat 9/14 Jacksonville State at Eastern Michigan-2.553.5L 34 - 37ON
Sat 9/21 Jacksonville State vs Southern Miss-6.059.5W 44 - 7UY
BYE WEEK
Fri 10/4 Jacksonville State at Kennesaw State-17.549.5W 63 - 24OY
Wed 10/9 Jacksonville State vs New Mexico State-21.058.5W 54 - 13OY
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/23 Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee-20.564.5W 42 - 20UY
Wed 10/30 Jacksonville State at Liberty+2.564.0W 31 - 21UY
Sat 11/9 Jacksonville State at Louisiana Tech-10.055.5W 44 - 37ON
Sat 11/16 Jacksonville State vs Florida International-12.558.5W 34 - 31ON
Sat 11/23 Jacksonville State vs Sam Houston-5.557.5W 21 - 11UY
Sat 11/30 Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky-0.562.5L 17 - 19UN
Fri 12/6 Jacksonville State vs Western Kentucky-4.558.5W 52 - 12OY
Fri 12/20 Jacksonville State vs Ohio+6.557.5L 27 - 30UY

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 3, Poor 7
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 2, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 1

Predictions for Jacksonville State's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#29 (.28)47% (17)21.652% (7)3.57 (5)19942% (61)2143.98 (59)#91 (.22)45% (103)36.346% (96)44% (96)3.73 (63)58.310.9
JVST#103 (.13)42% (65)3646% (41)3.08 (73)23738% (101)1713.77 (79)#10 (.07)36% (15)26.133% (6)39% (39)3.33 (24)43.41.61.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
JVST0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1521.612.647.3%3.981204121992145.755%45%52%42%14%.28
JVST Defense1326.121.335.9%3.331.9 - - - - - 50%48%33%39%18%.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1536.338.444.5%3.730.9 - - - - - 47%52%46%44%16%.22
JVST Offense133639.142.3%3.771.6224082371714.861%38%46%38%16%.13

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1531:2820.543%58%6.258.310.95.52.1128.2
Jacksonville State1326:4322.238%52%4.843.41.61.972.9130.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1555% (31)52% (7)35.1198.65.722 (51).27 (11)3.57 (5)81% (17)8% (35)0.96 (92)
JVST Defense1350% (66)33% (6) - - - - -.06 (2)2.45 (4)71% (57)12% (28)0.85 (12)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1547% (33)46% (96) - - - - .2 (103)3.21 (95)74% (73)10% (70)1.02 (80)
JVST Offense1361% (8)46% (41)49.8236.74.835 (5).18 (51)3.08 (73)72% (82)9% (54)0.99 (73)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1545% (100)42% (61)15.726.2213.78.213.628 (23)10 (56).33 (52)1.7 (32)29% (15)34% (40).42 (41)6% (61)2 (68)
JVST Defense1348% (53)39% (39) - - - - - - 16 (9).27 (69)1.7 (106)35% (30)25% (12).18 (10)6% (68)2 (63)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1552% (108)44% (96) - - - - - - 7 (111).25 (53)1.5 (20)29% (114)30% (67).38 (102)6% (83)2.3 (121)
JVST Offense1338% (128)38% (101)1426.91716.412.212 (113)12 (85).12 (119)1.6 (75)31% (47)30% (71).15 (119)6% (90)2 (90)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -24.23 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 260.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.23   Jacksonville State: -0.895

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -19.0   Jacksonville State: -1.0




Jacksonville State's Power Ratings
Jacksonville State's Power Rating: -0.895 #85
Jacksonville State's Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Jacksonville State's Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
2024 Talent Rating: 290.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Jacksonville State's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Jacksonville State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Jacksonville State's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Jacksonville State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 378
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Jacksonville State 39
New Mexico State 19


Projected Total Points: 60
Jacksonville State Scoring
Offense: 36 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.1
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.3

Jacksonville State's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/09Jacksonville State54New Mexico State13Jacksonville StateJacksonville State -21Jacksonville State58.5Over
202311/25New Mexico State20Jacksonville State17New Mexico StateNew Mexico State -2New Mexico State48.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Jacksonville State111 Overs
New Mexico State111 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 02 - 02 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 20 - 20 - 00 - 2

(#129) New Mexico State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -24.23 #129
Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127
Talent Rating: 260.00 #129
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
New Mexico State     Ratings Matchup     Jacksonville State
Power #129
#85
Off #111
#21
Def #119
#76
Talent #129
#127
SP+ #125
#73
SP+ Off #120
#57
SP+ Def #127
#81

Rematch from Week 7
Jacksonville State -21.0 (58.5)
Jacksonville State won vs New Mexico State this year (54-13)

Previous Matchups
Jacksonville State beat New Mexico State last year (54-13)
New Mexico State beat Jacksonville State in 2023 (20-17)

Weather Forecast
Playing in JSU Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 71°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | JVST
Depth Chart: NMSU | JVST
Rosters: NMSU | JVST
(#85) Jacksonville State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -0.895 #85
Offense Rating: 24.74 #21
Defense Rating: 10.35 #76
Overall SP+ Rating: -1.0 #73
Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #57
Defense SP+ Rating: 28.3 #81
Talent Rating: 290.00 #127
Blue Chip Ratio: 6 #53
Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 64%, Pass: 36%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.85 PPO
Great Run Success 49%
Poor Pass Success 40%
Avg OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Bad in Scoring Position 3.81 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 43%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Bad Field Position


Jacksonville State Notes
(12/2) Rgame good, Pass bad, 2-13 on 3rd, QB Huff hurt
(12/2) L to WKU, held to 13 1st downs (season low)
(12/1) QB Huff inj (ankle) in finale. ? in CUSA title gm
(11/25) Rgame mauled Sam H, clinched CUSA title game
(11/18) Fight w/ FIU? Def awful esp Run, Rgame great
(11/1) 4-0, avg 28 ppg margin in Oct, although lowering
(10/30) RB Steward 232 yds, 8.6, 4 TD in Liberty upset
(10/30) Won five straight after bad 0-3 start to '24
(10/16) Into wk 8, have 15 Def TO's, 3rd in CFB
(10/4) Killed S Miss. Off improving, QB Huff dual threat


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Jordan Smith8110013.821

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Malaki Ta'ase332152
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tayden Barnes572016
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Sone Aupiu554025

Jacksonville State's OC Rod Smith
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Tyler Huff (Tr)17829361%25431478.7
Zion Turner (Tr)010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Stewart2791636255.975
Tyler Huff (Tr)2271344155.951
Andrew Paul (Tr)3816644.428
Anwar Lewis3512723.623
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam Vaughn49804516.475
Michael Pettway25454318.292
Brock Rechsteiner16241215.185
Tre Stewart17233113.750

View Jacksonville State's Full Roster
Jacksonville State's DC Luke Olson
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Fred Perry10910322
Antonio Carter II (Tr)1033013
Reginald Hughes (Tr)8310460
Zechariah Poyser773008
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Swain4411420
Reginald Hughes (Tr)8310460
Fred Perry10910322
Jawaun Campbell478212
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jabari Mack3220011
Zechariah Poyser773008
Geimere Latimer460005