New Mexico State at Texas A&M - 2024 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Texas A&M Aggies(#10)Texas A&M logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (7:45 PM EST)
Texas A&M -38.5 (54.5) (0)  Open: -42.0
Texas A&M 38 - New Mexico State: 3

 
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
TA&M coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas A&M -38.5   (SP+ TA&M -36)

Projected Score: NMSU: 7 - TA&M: 46 (53)
TA&M Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
NMSU Travel: 624 miles, 1 hrs behind
Aggies (8 - 5) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 22 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 2) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 1) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas A&M vs Notre Dame-3.047.0L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/7 Texas A&M vs McNeese-48.556.5W 52 - 10ON
Sat 9/14 Texas A&M at Florida-4.547.0W 33 - 20OY
Sat 9/21 Texas A&M vs Bowling Green-21.050.5W 26 - 20UN
Sat 9/28 Texas A&M vs Arkansas-6.550.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 10/5 Texas A&M vs Missouri-3.047.5W 41 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Texas A&M at Mississippi State-21.055.5W 34 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 Texas A&M vs LSU-2.054.5W 38 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Texas A&M at South Carolina-3.043.5L 20 - 44ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Texas A&M vs New Mexico State-38.554.5W 38 - 3UN
Sat 11/23 Texas A&M at Auburn-2.547.0L 41 - 43ON
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M vs Texas+4.549.5L 7 - 17UN
Fri 12/27 Texas A&M vs USC-3.556.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 4, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)30.446% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)22.240% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)46% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)40% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.612.639.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
TA&M Defense1322.215.138.1%3.031.3 - - - - - 47%53%40%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1236.338.441.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
TA&M Offense1330.430.744.8%3.631203721851884.957%43%46%43%12%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Texas A&M1329:1319.645%41%6.960.711.36.61.8238.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
TA&M Defense1347% (35)40% (38) - - - - .1 (60)2.55 (10)77% (89)11% (46)1.11 (117)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
TA&M Offense1357% (21)46% (38)37.8184.54.926 (36).19 (37)3.29 (27)73% (68)7% (12)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
TA&M Defense1353% (105)37% (22) - - - - - - 13 (31).22 (62)1.8 (131)36% (11)30% (69).37 (94)8% (2)2.3 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
TA&M Offense1343% (112)43% (58)14.624.5187.87.712.916 (87)9 (48).25 (70)1.6 (72)30% (48)34% (43).35 (61)5% (28)1.9 (112)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -24.23 #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.23   Texas A&M: 17.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -19.0   Texas A&M: 17.0




Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 17.02 #24
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 18.38 #83
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 6.01 #35
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #5
Texas A&M's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas A&M's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.0 #13
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #21
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #19

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas A&M 46
New Mexico State 7


Total Points: 53

Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Texas A&M's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Texas A&M38New Mexico State3Texas A&MTexas A&M -38.5New Mexico State54.5Under
201610/29Texas A&M52New Mexico State10Texas A&MTexas A&M -43.5New Mexico State71.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas A&M200 Overs
New Mexico State022 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 00 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#129) New Mexico State Info
Power Rating: -24.23 #129
Offense Rating: 14.52 #111
Defense Rating: 16.79 #119
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0 #125
Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #120
Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1 #127
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 39%
Awful Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.8 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Awful Pass Success 30%
Bad OL Grades, Great OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Awful Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Avg in Scoring Position 3.7 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Awful Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

New Mexico State has lost 2 straight
New Mexico State has lost 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

New Mexico State Notes
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?

New Mexico State Highlights
New Mexico State has a top Offensive Line (#136)
New Mexico State does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#136)


New Mexico State Deficiencies
New Mexico State has a bad TO Margin (#107)
New Mexico State Fumbles a Lot (#89)
New Mexico State offense is really bad (#128)
New Mexico State pass game is really bad (#73)
New Mexico State Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
New Mexico State does not Sack the QB (#80)
New Mexico State gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#57)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatTA&MNMSU
OverallOver#41#91
OffenseOff#56#106
DefenseDef#42#88
Special TeamsST#83#60
PassingPass#83#108
RushingRush#39#72
Run BlockRBLK#39#53
Pass BlockPBLK#47#87
Route RunningWR Rt#49#107
TacklingTkl#100#59
Run DefenseR Def#19#80
Pass Rush DefPRush#27#109
Coverage DefCov#82#77

Rematch from Week 12
Texas A&M -38.5 (54.5)
Texas A&M won vs New Mexico State this year (38-3)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat New Mexico State last year (38-3)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: NMSU | TA&M
Depth Chart: NMSU | TA&M
Rosters: NMSU | TA&M
(#24) Texas A&M Info
Power Rating: 17.02 #24
Offense Rating: 18.38 #83
Defense Rating: 6.01 #35
Overall SP+ Rating: 17.0 #13
Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0 #21
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.6 #19
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 59 #5
Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.63 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Avg Pass Success 43%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Great in Scoring Position 3.03 PPO
Good Run Def Success 40%
Great Pass Def Success 37%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Great Field Position

Texas A&M has lost 1 straight
Texas A&M has won 5 straight at Home
Record at home: 5 - 2 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread)

Texas A&M Notes
(11/30) Off pitiful vs Tex, Rgame awful, Run Def mauled
(11/30) Beat LSU and NOTHING else to finish 8-4
(11/24) Def mauled by Aub, comeback fell in 4 OT
(11/5) Lead RB Moss (765 yds) out for season (leg)
(10/27) QB Reed 3 TD rush over LSU, DL was diff in game
(10/19) Off bad vs MSU. Def just OK this week
(10/7) Weigman/Rgame/Def great in rout of Mizzu.
(9/28) Def/Reed just good enough vs Hogs. Run D great
(9/26) Rgame 237 (5.6 ypc) in fight w/ BG. Reed better QB
(9/16) Rgame 310 (5.6 ypc) @ UF. QB Reed adds mobility

Texas A&M Highlights
Texas A&M has Really Good Running Game (#65)
Texas A&M has a top Offensive Line (#41)
Texas A&M does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#70)

Texas A&M has a really good defense (#36)
Texas A&M defense is really good in red zone (#116)
Texas A&M has a good pass defense (#48)
Texas A&M Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#48)
Texas A&M Defensive Line is very good (#28)
Texas A&M Secondary is very good (#107)
Texas A&M has a great TO Margin (#28)

Texas A&M Deficiencies
Texas A&M Commits a Lot of Penalties (#121)
Texas A&M offense is not Explosive (#30)
Texas A&M gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#124)


  
New Mexico State's OC Tyler Wright
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Kordell David18191010.638

View New Mexico State's Full Roster
New Mexico State's DC Joe Morris
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buddha Peleti206461
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025

Texas A&M's OC Collin Klein
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Marcel Reed14724061%18641567.8
Conner Weigman6411456%819357.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Le'Veon Moss121765106.375
Amari Daniels13966184.871
Marcel Reed11654774.731
E.J. Smith (Tr)5420703.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Thomas39574814.773
Jabre Barber (Tr)38381210.058
Jahdae Walker29345211.940
Tre Watson (Tr)21280113.333

View Texas A&M's Full Roster
Texas A&M's DC Jay Bateman
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taurean York8310324
Dalton Brooks596132
Marcus Ratcliffe (Tr)484010
Scooby Williams (Tr)438024
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway3714442
Cashius Howell (Tr)409487
Taurean York8310324
Malick Sylla63200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Lee III (Tr)4210010
Cashius Howell (Tr)409487
Albert Regis363126