New Mexico State at Texas A&M - 2024 Matchup Preview
New Mexico State logo New Mexico State Aggies at Texas A&M Aggies(#3)Texas A&M logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (7:45 PM EST)
Texas A&M -38.5 (54.5) (0)  Open: -42.0
Texas A&M 38 - New Mexico State: 3

 
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (13 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 5)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
TA&M coming off BYE
Our Line: Texas A&M -38.5  (SP+ TA&M -36)

Projected Score: NMSU: 9 - TA&M: 47 (56)
TA&M Win prob: 97% | Cover: 51%
NMSU Travel: 624 miles, 1 hrs behind
Aggies (8 - 5) (3 - 10 - 0)
Coach Mike Elko (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 22 (31 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8 - 5 (#42)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 3, Poor: 2

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Texas A&M's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Texas A&M vs Notre Dame-3.047.0L 13 - 23UN
Sat 9/7 Texas A&M vs McNeese-48.556.5W 52 - 10ON
Sat 9/14 Texas A&M at Florida-4.547.0W 33 - 20OY
Sat 9/21 Texas A&M vs Bowling Green-21.050.5W 26 - 20UN
Sat 9/28 Texas A&M vs Arkansas-6.550.5W 21 - 17UN
Sat 10/5 Texas A&M vs Missouri-3.047.5W 41 - 10OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Texas A&M at Mississippi State-21.055.5W 34 - 24ON
Sat 10/26 Texas A&M vs LSU-2.054.5W 38 - 23OY
Sat 11/2 Texas A&M at South Carolina-3.043.5L 20 - 44ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Texas A&M vs New Mexico State-38.554.5W 38 - 3UN
Sat 11/23 Texas A&M at Auburn-2.547.0L 41 - 43ON
Sat 11/30 Texas A&M vs Texas+4.549.5L 7 - 17UN
Fri 12/27 Texas A&M vs USC-3.556.5L 31 - 35ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Texas A&M's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)30.446% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)22.240% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
TA&M#54 (.21)45% (41)46% (38)3.29 (27)18543% (58)1883.63 (93)#67 (.16)38% (23)40% (38)37% (22)3.03 (9)60.711.3



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Offense1221.612.639.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08
TA&M Defense1322.215.138.1%3.031.3 - - - - - 47%53%40%37%20%.16
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NMSU Defense1236.338.441.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
TA&M Offense1330.430.744.8%3.631203721851884.957%43%46%43%12%.21

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Texas A&M1329:1319.645%41%6.960.711.36.61.8238.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)
TA&M Defense1347% (35)40% (38) - - - - .1 (60)2.55 (10)77% (89)11% (46)1.11 (117)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
TA&M Offense1357% (21)46% (38)37.8184.54.926 (36).19 (37)3.29 (27)73% (68)7% (12)0.97 (66)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)
TA&M Defense1353% (105)37% (22) - - - - - - 13 (31).22 (62)1.8 (131)36% (11)30% (69).37 (94)8% (2)2.3 (131)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
TA&M Offense1343% (112)43% (58)14.624.5187.87.712.916 (87)9 (48).25 (70)1.6 (72)30% (48)34% (43).35 (61)5% (28)1.9 (112)

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -24.23  #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52  #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79  #119
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6%  #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0  #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -24.23   Texas A&M: 17.02

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico State: -19.0   Texas A&M: 17.0




Texas A&M's Power Ratings
Texas A&M's Power Rating: 17.02  #24
Texas A&M's Offense Rating: 18.38  #83
Texas A&M's Defense Rating: 6.01  #35
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 59  #5
Texas A&M's 2024 Expected Record: 8.0 - 5.0
Texas A&M's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.0  #13
Texas A&M's Offense SP+ Rating: 34.0  #21
Texas A&M's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.6  #19

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 12.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 38.4

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Texas A&M 47
New Mexico State 9


Total Points: 56

Based on Last 4 Games
Texas A&M 42
New Mexico State 19

Total Points: 61

Based on Entire Season
Texas A&M 34
New Mexico State 18

Total Points: 52
Texas A&M Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.7
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Texas A&M's 2024 Record
Record: 8 - 5
Record vs Spread: 3 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Texas A&M38New Mexico State3Texas A&M -38.5New Mexico State54.5Under
201610/29Texas A&M52New Mexico State10Texas A&M -43.5New Mexico State71.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Texas A&M200 Overs
New Mexico State022 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 00 - 20 - 20 - 0
Road Teams0 - 22 - 00 - 02 - 0

(#129) NMSU at (#24) TA&M
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNMSUTA&M
Power RatePwr #129 #24
SP+SP+ #125 #13
Perf GradeGrade #126 #57
OffenseOff #130 #67
DefenseDef #108 #58
Spec TeamsST #72 #100
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #53 #5
New Mexico State Notes
(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report
Texas A&M Notes
(12/28) 0-3 finish. Elko didn't change a thing in yr 1
(11/30) Off pitiful vs Tex, Rgame awful, Run Def mauled
(11/30) Beat LSU and NOTHING else to finish 8-4
(11/24) Def mauled by Aub, comeback fell in 4 OT
(11/5) Lead RB Moss (765 yds) out for season (leg)
(10/27) QB Reed 3 TD rush over LSU, DL was diff in game
(10/19) Off bad vs MSU. Def just OK this week
(10/7) Weigman/Rgame/Def great in rout of Mizzu.
(9/28) Def/Reed just good enough vs Hogs. Run D great
(9/26) Rgame 237 (5.6 ypc) in fight w/ BG. Reed better QB
(9/16) Rgame 310 (5.6 ypc) @ UF. QB Reed adds mobility
(8/31) Wegman awful vs ND (12/30/2 Int). RB? Playmakers?
Texas A&M Injury Report
New Mexico State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTA&M Def
Perf GradePerf #130 #58
SuccessSuc #106 #23
ExplosiveExp #95 #131
PPAPPA #119 #67
PowerPwr #111 #35
SP+SP+ #120 #19
Pts POPPO #82 #9
HavocHav #112 #17
New Mexico State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTA&M Def
Run GameRun #102 #25
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #38
Run ExplRExp #61 #117
PPAExp #81 #60
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #10
Stuff RateStuff #28 #8
TackleTak -  #115
New Mexico State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffTA&M Def
Pass GamePass #133 #101
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #22
Pass ExplPExl #17 #131
PPAExp #128 #62
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #103 #29
F7 HavocF7 #103 #46
DB HavocDB #104 #2
Texas A&M on Offense
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatTA&M OffNMSU Def
Perf GradePerf #67 #108
SuccessSuc #41 #64
ExplosiveExp #106 #127
PPAPPA #54 #115
PowerPwr #83 #119
SP+SP+ #21 #127
Pts POPPO #93 #60
HavocHav #13 #128
Texas A&M Run Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
TA&M OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #56 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #38 #69
Run ExplRExp #66 #95
PPAExp #37 #98
Run BlockR Blk #49 -
OL YdsOLY #27 #93
Stuff RateStuff #29 #66
TackleTak -  #68
Texas A&M Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 57%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatTA&M OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #105 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #58 #68
Pass ExplPExl #72 #132
PPAExp #70 #118
Pass Block/RushP Blk #47 #130
F7 HavocF7 #12 #134
DB HavocDB #28 #78
Program Comparison
TA&M 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kyle Field
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 72° - Wind: 8 mph
Rematch from Week 12
Texas A&M -38.5 (54.5)
Texas A&M won vs New Mexico State this year (38-3)

Previous Matchups
Texas A&M beat New Mexico State last year (38-3)

  
NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Kordell David18191010.638

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buddha Peleti206461
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025

TA&M's OC Collin Klein (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Marcel Reed14724061%18641567.8
Conner Weigman6411456%819357.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Le'Veon Moss121765106.375
Amari Daniels13966184.871
Marcel Reed11654774.731
E.J. Smith (Tr)5420703.817
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Noah Thomas39574814.773
Jabre Barber (Tr)38381210.058
Jahdae Walker29345211.940
Tre Watson (Tr)21280113.333

View Texas A&M's Full Roster

TA&M's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Taurean York8310324
Dalton Brooks596132
Marcus Ratcliffe (Tr)484010
Scooby Williams (Tr)438024
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nic Caraway3714442
Cashius Howell (Tr)409487
Taurean York8310324
Malick Sylla63200
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Will Lee III (Tr)4210010
Cashius Howell (Tr)409487
Albert Regis363126