Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State - 2024 Matchup Preview
Louisiana Tech logo Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico State logo
Tuesday, October 15th 2024 (9:00 PM EDT)
Louisiana Tech -12.5 (49.0) (-470)  Open: -11.5
New Mexico State 33 - Louisiana Tech: 30  (Conference USA)

 
Bulldogs (5 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Sonny Cumbie (6 - 18)
Avg Score : 21 - 21 (16 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 8 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Louisiana Tech -4  (SP+ LT -7.5)
Projected Score: LT: 29 - NMSU: 25 (53)
LT Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
LT Travel: 821 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Aggies (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Tony Sanchez (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 22 - 36 (31 - 35 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Louisiana Tech vs Nicholls-17.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14 Louisiana Tech at NC State+20.547.5L 20 - 30OY
Sat 9/21 Louisiana Tech vs Tulsa-3.056.5L 20 - 23UN
Sat 9/28 Louisiana Tech vs Florida International-2.049.0L 10 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Thu 10/10 Louisiana Tech vs Middle Tennessee-5.048.0W 48 - 21OY
Tue 10/15 Louisiana Tech at New Mexico State-12.549.0L 30 - 33ON
Tue 10/22 Louisiana Tech vs UTEP-6.549.0W 14 - 10UN
Tue 10/29 Louisiana Tech at Sam Houston+10.545.5L 3 - 9UY
Sat 11/9 Louisiana Tech vs Jacksonville State+10.055.5L 37 - 44OY
Sat 11/16 Louisiana Tech at Western Kentucky+11.552.5W 12 - 7UY
Sat 11/23 Louisiana Tech at Arkansas+23.548.5L 14 - 35OY
Sat 11/30 Louisiana Tech vs Kennesaw State-13.541.5W 33 - 0UY
Sat 12/28 Louisiana Tech vs Army+15.044.5L 6 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Louisiana Tech's Schedule
New Mexico State's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 New Mexico State vs Southeast Missouri State-9.552.5W 23 - 16UN
Sat 9/7 New Mexico State vs Liberty+22.554.5L 24 - 30UY
Sat 9/14 New Mexico State at Fresno State+19.548.5L 0 - 48UN
Sat 9/21 New Mexico State at Sam Houston+15.544.5L 11 - 31UN
Sat 9/28 New Mexico State vs New Mexico+9.554.0L 40 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Wed 10/9 New Mexico State at Jacksonville State+21.058.5L 13 - 54ON
Tue 10/15 New Mexico State vs Louisiana Tech+12.549.0W 33 - 30OY
BYE WEEK
Tue 10/29 New Mexico State vs Florida International+7.043.5L 13 - 34ON
Sat 11/9 New Mexico State vs Western Kentucky+18.053.5L 28 - 41OY
Sat 11/16 New Mexico State at Texas A&M+38.554.5L 3 - 38UY
Sat 11/23 New Mexico State at Middle Tennessee+3.554.0W 36 - 21OY
Sat 11/30 New Mexico State vs UTEP-3.551.5L 35 - 42ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico State's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)20.937% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)2139% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)21.646% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)36.343% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
LT#130 (.02)37% (119)37% (122)2.62 (125)10938% (111)2113.09 (124)#26 (.1)37% (13)39% (36)35% (11)3.72 (61)46.71.51.2
NMSU#119 (.08)39% (106)46% (41)3.33 (21)17930% (132)1433.8 (82)#115 (.26)41% (64)43% (69)40% (68)3.7 (60)48.11.90.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LT Offense1320.915.837.5%3.091.5173191092113.149%51%37%38%17%.02
NMSU Defense1236.334.841.3%3.70.8 - - - - - 50%50%43%40%12%.26
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
LT Defense132122.837.2%3.721.2 - - - - - 56%43%39%35%15%.1
NMSU Offense1221.630.539.3%3.81.9193221791434.458%42%46%30%18%.08

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Louisiana Tech1329:3417.240%35%4.946.71.51.25.21.6033.2
New Mexico State1229:2619.338%38%5.448.11.90.83.81.2127
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LT Offense1349% (78)37% (122)35.2108.53.114 (98)-.09 (134)2.62 (125)66% (114)12% (116)0.69 (134)
NMSU Defense1250% (55)43% (69) - - - - .18 (98)3.17 (93)58% (5)7% (134)1.04 (95)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
LT Defense1356% (121)39% (36) - - - - .09 (54)2.9 (50)70% (48)11% (52)1.01 (82)
NMSU Offense1258% (20)46% (41)41.3179.34.416 (90).11 (81)3.33 (21)77% (37)11% (103)0.98 (61)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LT Offense1351% (56)38% (111)18.829.8210.97.111.218 (68)7 (26).13 (115)1.7 (35)33% (103)26% (117).15 (127)5% (22)2.1 (27)
NMSU Defense1250% (76)40% (68) - - - - - - 9 (76).36 (118)1.9 (132)31% (80)29% (42).42 (107)6% (78)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
LT Defense1343% (9)35% (11) - - - - - - 5 (117).15 (26)1.6 (72)35% (20)29% (46).28 (56)5% (112)1.9 (30)
NMSU Offense1242% (116)30% (132)11.826.7143.25.412.212 (118)12 (85).05 (128)1.8 (17)33% (100)30% (87).13 (131)7% (104)1.7 (132)

Louisiana Tech's Power Ratings
Louisiana Tech's Power Rating: -18.16  #119
Louisiana Tech's Offense Rating: 7.48  #133
Louisiana Tech's Defense Rating: 7.55  #49
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2%  #82
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 8.0
Louisiana Tech's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.6  #110
Louisiana Tech's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.9  #128
Louisiana Tech's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3  #64

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -18.16   New Mexico State: -19.115

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Louisiana Tech: -11.6   New Mexico State: -19.0




New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -19.115  #129
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: 14.52  #111
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: 16.79  #119
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 6  #53
New Mexico State's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
New Mexico State's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.0  #125
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 17.8  #120
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.1  #127

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Louisiana Tech Scoring
Offense: 20.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 21 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.8

Louisiana Tech's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Louisiana Tech 29
New Mexico State 25


Total Points: 53

Based on Last 4 Games
Louisiana Tech 35
New Mexico State 27

Total Points: 62

Based on Entire Season
Louisiana Tech 27
New Mexico State 24

Total Points: 51
New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 30.5
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 34.8

New Mexico State's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202509/13Louisiana Tech49New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech -10Louisiana Tech42.5Over
202410/15New Mexico State33Louisiana Tech30Louisiana Tech -12.5New Mexico State49.0Over
202310/24Louisiana Tech24New Mexico State27Louisiana Tech -3New Mexico State55.0Under
201210/27New Mexico State14Louisiana Tech28
201111/26Louisiana Tech44New Mexico State0
201011/13New Mexico State20Louisiana Tech41
200910/17Louisiana Tech45New Mexico State7
200811/22New Mexico State31Louisiana Tech35
200710/13Louisiana Tech22New Mexico State21
200612/02New Mexico State50Louisiana Tech23
200510/01Louisiana Tech34New Mexico State14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
New Mexico State322 Overs
Louisiana Tech811 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 42 - 11 - 11 - 0
Road Teams4 - 71 - 20 - 11 - 1

(#119) LT at (#129) NMSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatLTNMSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #119 #129
SP+SP+ #110 #125
Perf GradeGrade #113 #126
OffenseOff #113 #130
DefenseDef #94 #108
Spec TeamsST #93 #72
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #82 #53
Louisiana Tech Notes
(11/18) Upset WKU, Rgame 200+, Run Def great.
(10/23) Lucky W (UTEP), Rgame abysmal, QB Bullock OK
(10/16) Horrible loss @ NMSU. Rgame awful, QB bad TW
(10/10) Cumbie taking over playcalling duties (10/10)
(10/10) QB Bullock/Run game better-Cumbie playcalling
(10/4) Bottom 10 Off both Pass/Run. Def shockingly good
(10/4) Avg nearly 3 TO's per game, & can't move the ball
(9/25) Even w/ Tulsa, but 3 TOs cost them in OT loss
(9/15) Played w/ NC St. Off succ #130, near worst
(9/1) Dog fight W over Nicholls? Rgame awful, QBs meh
(8/17) Cumbie-reporter incident LY says all about him
(8/3) This is a roster that gets coaches fired
Louisiana Tech Injury Report
New Mexico State Notes
(10/29) QBs 7-19, 30 yds, 2 INT vs FIU. Pass Off #132
(10/22) Def stop rate 48% (#122) into week 9
(10/16) Better @ home. Rgame good in La Tech upset
(10/9) Team is unbettable. Sanchez is a clown hire
(10/4) Run D allowed 330+ yds (N.M.), Pass Off near worst
(9/29) OC Wright suspended after ugly social media posts
(9/9) Hung w/ Liberty but outgained > 200 yds.
(7/30) Roster decimated by portal & staff TO, 1 Def starter
(7/30) 4/5 OL Return w/ expl. RB's. Only bright spot
(7/30) Forget Kill years, no team will step back more TY
(7/30) 4 way QB battle? Will roster have enough bodies?
(7/30) New HC Sanchez an awful hire, disaster at UNLV
New Mexico State Injury Report
Louisiana Tech on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #113 #108
SuccessSuc #119 #64
ExplosiveExp #113 #127
PPAPPA #130 #115
PowerPwr #133 #119
SP+SP+ #128 #127
Pts POPPO #124 #60
HavocHav #83 #128
Louisiana Tech Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
Run GameRun #107 #103
Run SuccessRSuc #122 #69
Run ExplRExp #134 #95
PPAExp #134 #98
Run BlockR Blk #129 -
OL YdsOLY #125 #93
Stuff RateStuff #119 #66
TackleTak -  #68
Louisiana Tech Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 51%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
LT OffNMSU Def
Pass GamePass #91 #96
Pass SuccessPSuc #111 #68
Pass ExplPExl #35 #132
PPAExp #115 #118
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #53 #130
F7 HavocF7 #116 #134
DB HavocDB #22 #78
New Mexico State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNMSU OffLT Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #130 #94
SuccessSuc #106 #13
ExplosiveExp #95 #57
PPAPPA #119 #26
PowerPwr #111 #49
SP+SP+ #120 #64
Pts POPPO #82 #61
HavocHav #112 #76
New Mexico State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
NMSU OffLT Def
Run GameRun #102 #56
Run SuccessRSuc #41 #36
Run ExplRExp #61 #82
PPAExp #81 #54
Run BlockR Blk #68 -
OL YdsOLY #21 #50
Stuff RateStuff #28 #41
TackleTak -  #96
New Mexico State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatNMSU OffLT Def
Pass GamePass #133 #97
Pass SuccessPSuc #132 #11
Pass ExplPExl #17 #72
PPAExp #128 #26
Pass Block/RushP Blk #103 #118
F7 HavocF7 #103 #52
DB HavocDB #104 #112
Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Up to Poor G5

LT 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 78°
Rematch from Week 8
Louisiana Tech 12.5 (49.0)
New Mexico State won vs Louisiana Tech this year (33-30)

Previous Matchups
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech last year (33-30)
New Mexico State beat Louisiana Tech in 2023 (27-24)

  
LT's OC Scott Parr (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Evan Bullock19930266%21071437.0
Jack Turner407653%471226.2
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Omiri Wiggins11152744.735
Amani Givens7531924.320
Marquis Crosby5722413.931
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)4818243.829
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tru Edwards85989611.686
Jimmy Holiday (Tr)39476212.232
Eli Finley25314212.653
Jay Wilkerson13262220.255

View Louisiana Tech's Full Roster

LT's DC Jeremiah Johnson (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Zach Zimos846151
Kolbe Fields719231
Blake Thompson (Tr)603003
Jacob Fields546004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
David Blay4510620
Sifa Leota (Tr)426411
Jessie Evans406340
J'Dan Burnett213321
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cedric Woods300005
Demarcus Griffin-Taylor532005
Jacob Fields546004

NMSU's OC Tyler Wright (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Parker Awad7415947%1079746.8
Santino Marucci (Tr)4911244%519354.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Seth McGowan15381335.338
Michael Washington15871384.547
Santino Marucci (Tr)3713113.538
Larenzo McMillan7111115.984
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Pride34374211.053
Glynn Johnson Jr19346218.254
Seth McGowan23277312.043
Kordell David18191010.638

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC Joe Morris (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martinez943101
Da'Marcus Crosby812003
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Buddha Peleti206461
Kale Edwards (Tr)367440
Noah Arinze165310
Tyler Martinez943101
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dakerric Hobbs (Tr)363016
Tayden Barnes572016
Sone Aupiu554025