Notre Dame at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview
Notre Dame logo (#12)Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, October 26th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Notre Dame -14.0 (50.5) (-490)  Open: -12.5 | 51.5
Notre Dame 51 - Navy: 14

 
Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (46 - 18 on Road)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 17.4 MPH
ND 2nd straight Road Game
NAVY 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Notre Dame -21.5  (SP+ ND -20.5)
Projected Score: ND: 37 - NAVY: 15 (52)
ND Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
ND Travel: 545 miles
Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (39 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.047.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/14 Notre Dame at Purdue-11.545.5W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.544.0W 28 - 3UN
Sat 9/28 Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.545.0W 31 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.545.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.049.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-14.050.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.544.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 11/16 Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.551.0W 35 - 14UY
Sat 11/23 Notre Dame vs Army-14.544.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 11/30 Notre Dame at USC-6.552.5W 49 - 35OY
Fri 12/20 Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.050.0W 27 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.546.5W 23 - 10UY
Thu 1/9 Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.545.5W 27 - 24OY
Mon 1/20 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.545.5L 23 - 34ON

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule
Navy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Navy vs Bucknell-31.548.5W 49 - 21ON
Sat 9/7 Navy vs Temple-11.543.5W 38 - 11OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Navy vs Memphis+9.547.0W 56 - 44OY
Sat 9/28 Navy at UAB-4.556.5W 41 - 18OY
Sat 10/5 Navy at Air Force-10.037.0W 34 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Navy vs Charlotte-16.557.5W 51 - 17OY
Sat 10/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+14.050.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/2 Navy at Rice-12.549.0L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/9 Navy at South Florida-4.559.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/16 Navy vs Tulane+7.549.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29 Navy at East Carolina+2.554.0W 34 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14 Navy vs Army+6.039.5
Fri 12/27 Navy vs Oklahoma-1.044.0W 21 - 20UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)36.147% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)15.543% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.346% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)22.246% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ND#8 (.32)47% (22)47% (26)3.31 (24)18147% (21)1604.8 (5)#1 (-.02)36% (8)43% (73)29% (1)2.75 (4)42.40.81.8
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Offense1636.14647%4.80.8173411811606.353%47%47%47%11%.32
NAVY Defense1322.225.641.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ND Defense1615.518.336.4%2.751.8 - - - - - 51%48%43%29%19%-.02
NAVY Offense1331.338.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Notre Dame1624:3416.839%76%4.842.40.81.842.1533.2
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Offense1653% (46)47% (26)28.6181.36.342 (3).36 (2)3.31 (24)73% (71)8% (26)1.3 (1)
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ND Defense1651% (78)43% (73) - - - - .1 (58)2.9 (49)67% (29)10% (57)0.85 (12)
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Offense1647% (89)47% (21)14.922.4159.97.210.820 (58)6 (10).29 (50)1.3 (133)28% (19)32% (58).45 (22)3% (6)2.1 (50)
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ND Defense1648% (59)29% (1) - - - - - - 18 (4)-.15 (1)1.6 (67)34% (29)27% (24).1 (2)8% (6)1.6 (2)
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)

Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 24.66  #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52  #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27  #2
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 54%  #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9  #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6  #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1  #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 24.66   Navy: 2.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Notre Dame: 23.9   Navy: 3.5




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.85  #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12  #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57  #31
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5  #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5  #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 46
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 18.3

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 7
Record on Road: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 37
Navy 15

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Navy 28
Notre Dame 22

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Notre Dame 32
Navy 26

Total Points: 58
Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/08Notre Dame49Navy10Notre Dame -30.5Notre Dame54.5Over
202410/26Navy14Notre Dame51Notre Dame -14.0Notre Dame50.5Over
202308/26Notre Dame42Navy3Notre Dame -20.5Notre Dame49.0Under
202211/12Navy32Notre Dame35Notre Dame -17Navy40.5Over
202111/06Notre Dame34Navy6Notre Dame -21Notre Dame47.5Under
201911/16Notre Dame52Navy20Notre Dame -7.5Notre Dame55.5Over
201810/27Navy22Notre Dame44Notre Dame -21.5Notre Dame55.5Over
201711/18Notre Dame24Navy17Notre Dame -20.5Navy58.5Under
201611/05Navy28Notre Dame27Navy -4.5Notre Dame63.0Under
201510/10Notre Dame41Navy24Notre Dame -16Notre Dame59.5Over
201411/01Navy39Notre Dame49Notre Dame -13.5Navy0
201311/02Notre Dame38Navy34Notre Dame -17Navy0
201209/01Navy10Notre Dame50
201110/29Notre Dame56Navy14
201010/23Navy35Notre Dame17
200911/07Notre Dame21Navy23
200811/15Navy21Notre Dame27
200711/03Notre Dame44Navy46
200610/28Navy14Notre Dame38
200511/12Notre Dame42Navy21
200410/16Navy9Notre Dame27
200311/08Notre Dame27Navy24
200211/09Navy23Notre Dame30
200111/17Notre Dame34Navy16
200010/13Notre Dame45Navy14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy446 Overs
Notre Dame2184 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 117 - 55 - 32 - 2
Road Teams11 - 145 - 72 - 23 - 5

(#5) ND at (#53) NAVY
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatNDNAVY
Power RatePwr #5 #53
SP+SP+ #8 #57
Perf GradeGrade #10 #20
OffenseOff #11 #19
DefenseDef #10 #30
Spec TeamsST #5 #3
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #8 #102
Navy Notes
(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report
Notre Dame on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffNAVY Def
Perf GradePerf #11 #30
SuccessSuc #22 #61
ExplosiveExp #35 #28
PPAPPA #8 #28
PowerPwr #24 #31
SP+SP+ #4 #53
Pts POPPO #5 #35
HavocHav #8 #104
Notre Dame Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffNAVY Def
Run GameRun #4 #37
Run SuccessRSuc #26 #95
Run ExplRExp #1 #39
PPAExp #2 #89
Run BlockR Blk #13 -
OL YdsOLY #24 #107
Stuff RateStuff #36 #122
TackleTak -  #16
Notre Dame Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat
ND OffNAVY Def
Pass GamePass #37 #29
Pass SuccessPSuc #21 #24
Pass ExplPExl #133 #51
PPAExp #50 #8
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #97
F7 HavocF7 #26 #101
DB HavocDB #6 #89
Navy on Offense
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCatNAVY OffND Def
Perf GradePerf #19 #10
SuccessSuc #51 #8
ExplosiveExp #11 #14
PPAPPA #12 #1
PowerPwr #27 #2
SP+SP+ #51 #7
Pts POPPO #26 #4
HavocHav #6 #25
Navy Run Game
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat
NAVY OffND Def
Run GameRun #42 #35
Run SuccessRSuc #43 #73
Run ExplRExp #7 #12
PPAExp #10 #58
Run BlockR Blk #18 -
OL YdsOLY #32 #49
Stuff RateStuff #14 #89
TackleTak -  #9
Navy Pass Game
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCatNAVY OffND Def
Pass GamePass #121 #2
Pass SuccessPSuc #101 #1
Pass ExplPExl #3 #67
PPAExp #15 #1
Pass Block/RushP Blk #26 #15
F7 HavocF7 #28 #57
DB HavocDB #4 #6
Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

ND 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'25 Profile: Up to Title Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in MetLife Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 64° - Wind: 17 mph
Rematch from Week 9
Notre Dame 14.0 (50.5)
Notre Dame won at Navy this year (51-14)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Navy last year (51-14)
Notre Dame beat Navy in 2023 (42-3)
Notre Dame beat Navy in 2022 (35-32)

  
ND's OC Mike Denbrock (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)26940367%28612187.1
Steven Angeli243667%268307.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Riley Leonard (Tr)184906174.950
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Beaux Collins (Tr)41490312.053
Mitchell Evans4342139.833
Jordan Faison30356111.944

View Notre Dame's Full Roster

ND's DC Al Golden (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Kiser905231
Xavier Watts834049
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Rylie Mills379840
Howard Cross III275431
Donovan Hinish344441
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Xavier Watts834049
Christian Gray353009

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8013958%13531349.7
Braxton Woodson183650%243226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath1761254177.195
Alex Tecza12355684.565
Eli Heidenreich6544436.860
Daba Fofana6026324.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich39671617.274
Brandon Chatman18257414.346
Alex Tecza12229219.146
Nathan Kent10222222.277

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos1299342
Kyle Jacob1025122
Rayuan Lane701004
Luke Pirris686351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed4911641
Landon Robinson616570
Colin Ramos1299342
Luke Pirris686351
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dashaun Peele454205
Rayuan Lane701004
Andrew Duhart292004