Charlotte at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Navy -16.5 (57.5) (-700) Open: -16.5
Navy 51 - Charlotte: 17 (American Athletic)

49ers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Biff Poggi (3 - 9)
Avg Score : 14 - 36 (12 - 38 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CHAR coming off BYE
NAVY coming off BYE
Our Line: Navy -19.5 (SP+ NAVY -19)
Projected Score: CHAR: 18 - NAVY: 38 (56)
NAVY Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
CHAR Travel: 345 miles

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CHAR Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Charlotte's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Charlotte vs James Madison	+6.5	47.5	L 7 - 30	U	N
Sat 9/7	Charlotte at North Carolina	+21.5	47.5	L 20 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Charlotte vs Gardner-Webb	-14.0	46.5	W 27 - 26	O	N
Sat 9/21	Charlotte at Indiana	+28.5	50.0	L 14 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/28	Charlotte at Rice	+4.0	48.0	W 21 - 20	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Charlotte vs East Carolina	+9.5	47.5	W 55 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Charlotte at Navy	+16.5	57.5	L 17 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/26	Charlotte at Memphis	+17.0	56.5	L 28 - 33	O	Y
Thu 10/31	Charlotte vs Tulane	+14.5	55.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Charlotte vs South Florida	-1.5	53.5	L 24 - 59	O	N
Sat 11/23	Charlotte at Florida Atlantic	-3.0	49.5	W 39 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Charlotte vs UAB	-1.5	59.5	W 29 - 27	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Charlotte's Schedule

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR	#126 (.05)	35% (131)	14.3	37% (125)	2.91 (104)	145	33% (128)	168	2.84 (127)	#55 (.16)	41% (50)	36.3	41% (50)	41% (57)	4 (87)	58.6	1.8	1.4
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CHAR		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Offense	12	14.3	11.6	34.6%	2.84	1.8	17	313	145	168	3.8	54%	44%	37%	33%	18%	.05
NAVY Defense	12	25	24.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CHAR Defense	12	36.3	37.6	40.6%	4	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	41%	15%	.16
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	38	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Charlotte	12	32:17	16.8	24%	54%	6.9	58.6	1.8	1.4	5	1.6	2	28.8
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Offense	12	54% (34)	37% (125)	38.7	145	3.8	16 (89)	.13 (81)	2.91 (104)	66% (114)	12% (115)	1.15 (9)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CHAR Defense	12	53% (111)	41% (50)	-	-	-	-	.13 (59)	2.97 (42)	61% (14)	9% (97)	1.01 (76)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Offense	12	44% (103)	33% (128)	15.5	27.3	167.8	6.1	10.8	7 (129)	16 (121)	.02 (133)	1.5 (83)	36% (123)	22% (128)	.11 (126)	6% (53)	2 (83)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CHAR Defense	12	46% (23)	41% (57)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (73)	1.6 (72)	31% (82)	31% (85)	.28 (49)	6% (88)	1.9 (23)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

Charlotte's Power Ratings
Charlotte's Power Rating: -13.07 #108
Charlotte's Offense Rating: 16.64 #99
Charlotte's Defense Rating: 15.25 #110
2024 Talent Rating: 200.00 #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 6% #53
Charlotte's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Charlotte's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -15.3 #118
Charlotte's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.4 #102
Charlotte's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.6 #124

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -13.07 Navy: 5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Charlotte: -15.3 Navy: 3.5

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 5.35 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Charlotte Scoring
Offense: 14.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 11.6
Defense: 36.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.6

Charlotte's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 38
Charlotte 18

Projected Total Points: 56

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Navy	51	Charlotte	17	Navy -16.5	Navy	57.5	Over
2023	10/14	Charlotte	0	Navy	14	Navy -3.5	Navy	44.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	2	2	1 Overs
Charlotte	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 1

(#108) CHAR at (#53) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CHAR	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#108	#53
SP+SP+	#118	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#119	#20
OffenseOff	#103	#19
DefenseDef	#125	#30
Spec TeamsST	#134	#3
TalentTal	#117	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#53	#102

Charlotte Notes(12/8) Hired HC Albin (Ohio HC, 33-19 in 4 yrs)
(11/18) 4 straight L's, R Def all 425 yds, 8.9 ypc in USF L
(11/18) Poggi fired after 4 str L's (USF)
(11/3) 3 straight L's vs tough sched, need 3-0 to bowl
(11/3) QBs near worst in CFB, Rgame bottom 30
(11/1) Off is terrible. Run game sucks, Pass worse
(10/20) 5 TOs, 8 flags in L while Outrushed Navy
(10/18) Top 10 in CFB in rushing explosiveness
(10/16) Two ML upsets into Bye. Navy/Mem/Tulane up
(10/8) Huge W (ECU), 311 rush yds (6 ypc). Improving?
(10/8) Significantly better with QB Purdie than others
(9/1) Kinda even vs JMU (L) but 3 TO's 7-19 3rd down
Charlotte Injury Report

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

Charlotte on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#103	#30
SuccessSuc	#131	#51
ExplosiveExp	#53	#59
PPAPPA	#126	#45
PowerPwr	#99	#31
SP+SP+	#102	#53
Pts POPPO	#127	#7
HavocHav	#96	#56

Charlotte Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#76	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#125	#23
Run ExplRExp	#9	#16
PPAExp	#81	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	#104	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#127	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

Charlotte Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 47%
CategoryCat	CHAR Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#128	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#83	#75
PPAExp	#133	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#32	#97
F7 HavocF7	#115	#36
DB HavocDB	#53	#88

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	CHAR Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#125
SuccessSuc	#117	#50
ExplosiveExp	#111	#64
PPAPPA	#121	#55
PowerPwr	#27	#110
SP+SP+	#51	#124
Pts POPPO	#133	#87
HavocHav	#33	#100

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	CHAR Def
Run GameRun	#42	#131
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#50
Run ExplRExp	#57	#76
PPAExp	#110	#59
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#42
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#30
TackleTak	-	#55

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	CHAR Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#57
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#72
PPAExp	#121	#73
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#115
F7 HavocF7	#101	#97
DB HavocDB	#3	#88

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

CHAR 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Navy -16.5 (57.5)
Navy won vs Charlotte this year (51-17)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Charlotte in 2024 (51-17)
Navy beat Charlotte in 2023 (14-0)

CHAR's OC Mike Miller (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deshawn Purdie	100	200	50%	1802	10	6	9.0
Max Brown (Tr)	43	93	46%	561	3	6	6.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Hahsaun Wilson	91	559	7	6.1	65
Cartevious Norton (Tr)	129	525	7	4.1	62
Terron Kellman	48	242	0	5.0	41
Max Brown (Tr)	33	85	0	2.6	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
O'Mega Blake (Tr)	32	795	9	24.8	75
Sean Brown	35	470	1	13.4	42
Jairus Mack	19	418	0	22.0	59
Isaiah Myers	13	237	3	18.2	37

View Charlotte's Full Roster

CHAR's DC Ryan Osborn (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reid Williford	74	6	2	2	2
Cam Burden	57	3	0	0	2
Dontae Balfour	48	3	0	0	9
Al-Ma'Hi Ali	45	1	0	3	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chantz Williams (Tr)	18	7	4	1	4
Reid Williford	74	6	2	2	2
Demon Clowney	23	5	2	1	0
Mordecai McDaniel	42	2	1	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dontae Balfour	48	3	0	0	9
Al-Ma'Hi Ali	45	1	0	3	7
Chantz Williams (Tr)	18	7	4	1	4

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4