Navy at South Florida Game Matchup
Navy logo Navy Midshipmen at South Florida BullsSouth Florida logo
Saturday, November 9th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Navy -4.5 (59.5) (-185)  Open: -3.0 | 56.5
Navy 28 - South Florida: 7  (American Athletic)

 
Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (29 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 1)
NAVY 2nd straight Road Game
NAVY is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -1.5   (SP+ NAVY -6)

Projected Score: NAVY: 30 - USF: 28 (58)
NAVY Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 835 miles
Bulls (7 - 6) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Alex Golesh (7 - 6)
Avg Score : 32 - 30 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7 - 6 (#59)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 3)
 
Navy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Navy vs Bucknell-31.548.5W 49 - 21ON
Sat 9/7 Navy vs Temple-11.543.5W 38 - 11OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Navy vs Memphis+9.547.0W 56 - 44OY
Sat 9/28 Navy at UAB-4.556.5W 41 - 18OY
Sat 10/5 Navy at Air Force-10.037.0W 34 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Navy vs Charlotte-16.557.5W 51 - 17OY
Sat 10/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+14.050.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/2 Navy at Rice-12.549.0L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/9 Navy at South Florida-4.559.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/16 Navy vs Tulane+7.549.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29 Navy at East Carolina+2.554.0W 34 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14 Navy vs Army+6.039.5
Fri 12/27 Navy vs Oklahoma-1.044.0W 21 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule
South Florida's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 South Florida vs Bethune-Cookman-22.5
Sat 9/7 South Florida at Alabama+33.565.5L 16 - 42UY
Sat 9/14 South Florida at Southern Miss-13.058.5W 49 - 24OY
Sat 9/21 South Florida vs Miami+17.064.5L 15 - 50ON
Sat 9/28 South Florida at Tulane+4.060.5L 10 - 45UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 South Florida vs Memphis+10.061.0L 3 - 21UN
Sat 10/19 South Florida vs UAB-14.055.5W 35 - 25ON
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/1 South Florida at Florida Atlantic-1.548.0W 44 - 21OY
Sat 11/9 South Florida vs Navy+4.559.5L 7 - 28UN
Sat 11/16 South Florida at Charlotte+1.553.5W 59 - 24OY
Sat 11/23 South Florida vs Tulsa-17.560.0W 63 - 30OY
Sat 11/30 South Florida at Rice-5.553.5L 28 - 35ON
Tue 12/24 South Florida vs San José State-1.566.5W 41 - 39OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 2, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for South Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY#121 (.07)37% (117)31.339% (111)2.86 (108)19532% (131)1062.38 (133)#45 (.15)41% (51)22.237% (23)45% (114)2.84 (7)4612
USF#79 (.17)39% (106)32.239% (112)2.99 (92)18340% (82)2693.63 (89)#97 (.23)40% (41)29.840% (44)40% (47)3.7 (60)65.51.61.9
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
NAVY0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
USF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Offense1231.329.437.1%2.381153001951064.371%29%39%32%14%.07
USF Defense1329.827.239.8%3.71.9 - - - - - 45%54%40%40%19%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
NAVY Defense1222.215.240.6%2.842 - - - - - 50%49%37%45%17%.15
USF Offense1332.233.639.2%3.631.6234521832694.152%47%39%40%16%.17

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Navy1231:1514.529%62%5.746125.22.3132.4
South Florida1328:3523.138%43%7.565.51.61.97.51.8129.9
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense1271% (3)39% (111)45.7194.64.316 (89).07 (110)2.86 (108)72% (83)12% (101)1.02 (57)
USF Defense1345% (16)40% (44) - - - - .11 (44)2.73 (16)69% (44)12% (15)1.19 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense1250% (67)37% (23) - - - - .02 (15)2.87 (30)67% (34)11% (36)0.86 (16)
USF Offense1352% (49)39% (112)44.6182.84.123 (46).15 (68)2.99 (92)81% (12)11% (92)1.16 (8)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense1229% (131)32% (131)8.516.6105.76.412.410 (120)5 (6).11 (121)1.8 (15)31% (61)21% (132).06 (131)2% (3)2 (88)
USF Defense1354% (117)40% (47) - - - - - - 14 (21).37 (112)1.8 (128)35% (33)29% (56).37 (96)7% (46)2.3 (126)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense1249% (65)45% (114) - - - - - - 10 (67).33 (103)1.6 (75)31% (97)28% (40).34 (83)6% (88)2.2 (113)
USF Offense1347% (87)40% (82)22.134.4268.87.812.227 (25)11 (68).26 (73)1.6 (64)36% (121)27% (95).31 (76)5% (39)2.3 (15)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: 2.20   South Florida: 1.455

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5   South Florida: -2.3




South Florida's Power Ratings
South Florida's Power Rating: 1.455 #62
South Florida's Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
South Florida's Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
2024 Talent Rating: 486.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
South Florida's 2024 Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0
South Florida's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
South Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
South Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482.57
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Navy 30
South Florida 28


Projected Total Points: 58
South Florida Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.6
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.2

South Florida's 2024 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/09South Florida7Navy28NavyNavy -4.5Navy59.5Under
202309/30Navy30South Florida44South FloridaNavy -4South Florida54.0Over
201910/19Navy35South Florida3NavyNavy -15.5Navy52.0Under
201610/28South Florida52Navy45South FloridaSouth Florida -9Navy66.0Over
201510/31Navy29South Florida17NavyNavy -11Navy51.0Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
South Florida212 Overs
Navy343 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 22 - 32 - 20 - 1
Road Teams2 - 33 - 21 - 02 - 2

(#53) Navy Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Talent Rating: 96.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Navy Notes
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
Navy     Ratings Matchup     South Florida
Power #53
#62
Off #27
#72
Def #31
#48
Talent #134
#102
SP+ #57
#79
SP+ Off #51
#51
SP+ Def #53
#108

Rematch from Week 11
Navy 4.5 (59.5)
Navy won at South Florida this year (28-7)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat South Florida last year (28-7)
South Florida beat Navy in 2023 (44-30)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Raymond James Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 86° - Wind: 8 mph


Team Information
Injuries: NAVY | USF
Depth Chart: NAVY | USF
Rosters: NAVY | USF
(#62) South Florida Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 1.455 #62
Offense Rating: 19.25 #72
Defense Rating: 7.53 #48
Overall SP+ Rating: -2.3 #79
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #108
Talent Rating: 486.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #65
Expected Record: 7.0 - 6.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Awful Offense Success Rate of 38%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.88 PPO
Awful Run Success 39%
Poor Pass Success 38%
Bad OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 39%
Bad in Scoring Position 4 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Bad Pass Def Success 40%
Great Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


South Florida Notes
(11/9) Golesh is a f'ing idiot. In game decisions -6
(11/4) Rgame mauled FAU. QB Archie good, D avg, flags
(11/4) Golesh big timed FAU Herman, crootin beef
(10/20) Outplayed by UAB, lucky W. New QB Archie statue
(10/14) QB Brown may have broken leg, out since Tulane
(10/13) Rgame is abysmal, QB not much better in L (Mem)
(10/11) Hiding injuries but team may be very beat up
(9/28) Dogwalked by Tulane. Rgame 26 yds, 1.0 ypc!
(9/22) Good 1st H fight vs Mia. Just wore down again
(9/14) 369 yds rushing, 7.2 ypc in smashing S Miss


  
Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8013958%13531349.7
Braxton Woodson183650%243226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath1761254177.195
Alex Tecza12355684.565
Eli Heidenreich6544436.860
Brandon Chatman4825035.220
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich39671617.274
Brandon Chatman18257414.346
Alex Tecza12229219.146
Nathan Kent10222222.277

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Luke Pirris686351
Landon Robinson616570
Jaxson Campbell585324
Kenneth McShan341030
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Landon Robinson616570
Luke Pirris686351
Jaxson Campbell585324
Griffen Willis323211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaxson Campbell585324
Andrew Duhart292004
Ira Oniha121003

South Florida's OC Joel Gordon
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Archie17229059%19149106.6
Byrum Brown7813259%836206.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Taron Keith7841985.442
Byrum Brown6826934.042
Bryce Archie6813722.035
Alvon Isaac65018.325
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keshaun Singleton27428315.967
Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (Tr)21254012.151
Joshua Porter2421008.832
Payten Singletary (Tr)17197211.634

View South Florida's Full Roster
South Florida's DC Todd Orlando
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Tavin Ward612003
Jhalyn Shuler607441
Tawfiq Byard548200
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mac Harris8212462
Jhalyn Shuler607441
Decarius Hawthorne (Tr)3910332
Ira Singleton123310
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brent Austin (Tr)4800010
De'Shawn Rucker (Tr)412007
Ben Knox221106