Navy at UAB - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 28th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Navy -4.5 (56.5) (-180) Open: 0.0
Navy 41 - UAB: 18 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (26 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

UAB coming off BYE
Our Line: Navy -12.5 (SP+ NAVY -15)
Projected Score: NAVY: 36 - UAB: 23 (59)
NAVY Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
NAVY Travel: 686 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Blazers (3 - 9) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach Trent Dilfer (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 26 - 38 (28 - 38 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#114)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
UAB Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

UAB's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	UAB vs Alcorn State	-29.5	55.5	W 41 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	UAB at UL Monroe	-10.5	55.5	L 6 - 32	U	N
Sat 9/14	UAB at Arkansas	+23.5	60.5	L 27 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	UAB vs Navy	+4.5	56.5	L 18 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/5	UAB vs Tulane	+19.5	52.0	L 20 - 71	O	N
Sat 10/12	UAB at Army	+27.0	55.5	L 10 - 44	U	N
Sat 10/19	UAB at South Florida	+14.0	55.5	L 25 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	UAB vs Tulsa	-2.5	57.5	W 59 - 21	O	Y
Sat 11/9	UAB vs UConn	+7.5	54.0	L 23 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/16	UAB at Memphis	+16.0	62.0	L 18 - 53	O	N
Sat 11/23	UAB vs Rice	+7.0	52.0	W 40 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/30	UAB at Charlotte	+1.5	59.5	L 27 - 29	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2
UAB	#12 (.32)	49% (10)	26.4	51% (11)	3.7 (3)	161	48% (18)	289	3.84 (76)	#119 (.28)	48% (129)	38.3	53% (132)	43% (89)	4.45 (122)	56.3	1.7	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
UAB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	25.8	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07
UAB Defense	12	38.3	37.7	47.8%	4.45	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	53%	43%	16%	.28

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	12	25	30.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15
UAB Offense	12	26.4	28.2	48.5%	3.84	1.7	24	450	161	289	4.5	47%	51%	51%	48%	18%	.32

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4
UAB	12	29:14	23.7	40%	48%	6.7	56.3	1.7	1.7	4.1	2.3	1	27.7

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)
UAB Defense	12	50% (73)	53% (132)	-	-	-	-	.36 (133)	3.55 (131)	83% (116)	9% (107)	1.09 (109)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)
UAB Offense	12	47% (91)	51% (11)	35.5	161.1	4.5	24 (41)	.32 (4)	3.7 (3)	77% (42)	13% (124)	1.06 (34)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)
UAB Defense	12	49% (64)	43% (89)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.26 (58)	1.5 (46)	30% (109)	36% (124)	.46 (121)	7% (30)	2 (67)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)
UAB Offense	12	51% (47)	48% (18)	25.5	35.6	288.9	8.1	11.3	22 (61)	13 (97)	.37 (34)	1.5 (103)	28% (13)	33% (48)	.48 (21)	5% (43)	2.1 (43)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: 2.20 UAB: -9.46

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5 UAB: -11.3

UAB's Power Ratings
UAB's Power Rating: -9.46 #107
UAB's Offense Rating: 21.87 #51
UAB's Defense Rating: 16.86 #120
2024 Talent Rating: 263.00 #89
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
UAB's 2024 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
UAB's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.3 #108
UAB's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #75
UAB's Defense SP+ Rating: 38.0 #126

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.8
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 36
UAB 23

Projected Total Points: 59

UAB Scoring
Offense: 26.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.2
Defense: 38.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 37.7

UAB's 2024 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/06	Navy	38	UAB	24	Navy -20.5	UAB	59.0	Over
2024	09/28	UAB	18	Navy	41	Navy -4.5	Navy	56.5	Over
2023	11/11	Navy	31	UAB	6	UAB -3.5	Navy	52.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UAB	0	1	2 Overs
Navy	3	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0

(#53) NAVY at (#107) UAB

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	UAB
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#53	#107
SP+SP+	#57	#108
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#124
OffenseOff	#19	#109
DefenseDef	#30	#126
Spec TeamsST	#3	#105
TalentTal	#134	#89
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

UAB Notes(11/25) Upset Rice, Def 4 TOs, Off was OK but enough
(11/18) Tulsa was dead cat bounce, L's to UConn/Memphis
(11/3) Killed Tulsa, 400+ pass yds. Still 10 flags
(10/22) Def stop rate 39% (#129) into week 9
(10/20) Fought w/ S Fla but gagged. Kitna 384 yds
(10/13) Def all 400+ yds rush (Army). Dilfer needs 2 go
(10/7) Dilfer is done. Concerning rumors, team quit
(10/6) Team has quit. Tulane 70 pts, 300+ yds rushing
(9/29) Mauled by Navy, though stats even. Dilfer a clown
(9/14) Lost to #130 ULM by 26 as a 10+ pt fav. Woof
(8/13) OC Mortensen Dink & Dunk Off worked LY
(8/13) 4/5 OL starters back, RB losses big, now ?
UAB Injury Report

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	UAB Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#126
SuccessSuc	#117	#129
ExplosiveExp	#111	#67
PPAPPA	#121	#119
PowerPwr	#27	#120
SP+SP+	#51	#126
Pts POPPO	#133	#122
HavocHav	#33	#78

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	UAB Def
Run GameRun	#42	#136
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#132
Run ExplRExp	#57	#109
PPAExp	#110	#133
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#131
TackleTak	-	#91

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	UAB Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#63
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#89
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#46
PPAExp	#121	#58
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#26	#58
F7 HavocF7	#101	#107
DB HavocDB	#3	#30

UAB on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	NAVY Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#109	#30
SuccessSuc	#10	#51
ExplosiveExp	#72	#59
PPAPPA	#12	#45
PowerPwr	#51	#31
SP+SP+	#75	#53
Pts POPPO	#76	#7
HavocHav	#105	#56

UAB Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#113	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#11	#23
Run ExplRExp	#34	#16
PPAExp	#4	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#3	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#13	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

UAB Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat	UAB Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#94	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#18	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#103	#75
PPAExp	#34	#103
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#45	#97
F7 HavocF7	#124	#36
DB HavocDB	#43	#88

Program Comparison
UAB 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'24 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Protective Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Navy 4.5 (56.5)
Navy won at UAB this year (41-18)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat UAB last year (38-24)
Navy beat UAB in 2024 (41-18)
Navy beat UAB in 2023 (31-6)

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4

UAB's OC Alex Mortensen (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Kitna	196	316	62%	2209	17	11	7.0
Jacob Zeno	82	118	70%	819	6	5	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Lee Beebe	166	885	7	5.3	61
Lee Witherspoon	35	166	0	4.7	15
Isaiah Jacobs	41	162	0	4.0	12
Jacob Zeno	37	97	0	2.6	26

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Amare Thomas	62	670	8	10.8	73
Kameran Shanks	62	656	6	10.6	67
Corri Milliner	24	416	3	17.3	45
Malachi Holt-Bennett	16	241	1	15.1	71

View UAB's Full Roster

UAB's DC Sione Ta'ufo'ou (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Michael Moore	92	3	0	1	2
Everett Roussaw Jr.	75	8	3	4	1
Tyjon Jones (Tr)	59	0	0	1	4
Sirad Bryant (Tr)	59	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Desmond Little	40	10	6	7	3
Everett Roussaw Jr.	75	8	3	4	1
James Smyre	9	2	2	0	0
Kendall Johnson	18	4	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Colby Dempsey	22	2	0	11
Adrian Maddox (Tr)	44	2	1	7
Kelvin Hill	42	0	0	5