Memphis at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen

Saturday, September 21st 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Memphis -9.5 (47.0) (-310) Open: 0.0
Navy 56 - Memphis: 44 (American Athletic)

Tigers (11 - 2) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Ryan Silverfield (31 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 23 (35 - 21 on Road)
Record Prediction: 11 - 2 (#8)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

MEM 2nd straight Road Game
NAVY coming off BYE
MEM is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Memphis -3.5 (SP+ MEM -6)
Projected Score: MEM: 28 - NAVY: 24 (52)
MEM Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
MEM Travel: 788 miles, 1 hrs behind

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MEM Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Memphis's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Memphis vs North Alabama	-38.5	62.5	W 40 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Memphis vs Troy	-18.5	57.5	W 38 - 17	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Memphis at Florida State	+7.0	52.0	W 20 - 12	U	Y
Sat 9/21	Memphis at Navy	-9.5	47.0	L 44 - 56	O	N
Sat 9/28	Memphis vs Middle Tennessee	-27.0	62.0	W 24 - 7	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Memphis vs South Florida	-10.0	61.0	W 21 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Memphis vs North Texas	-10.5	67.5	W 52 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/26	Memphis vs Charlotte	-17.0	56.5	W 33 - 28	O	N
Sat 11/2	Memphis at UTSA	-7.0	62.0	L 36 - 44	O	N
Fri 11/8	Memphis vs Rice	-7.5	50.5	W 27 - 20	U	N
Sat 11/16	Memphis vs UAB	-16.0	62.0	W 53 - 18	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Memphis at Tulane	+12.5	54.5	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Tue 12/17	Memphis vs West Virginia	-5.0	60.0	W 42 - 37	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Memphis's Schedule

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM	#18 (.3)	47% (23)	32.5	47% (33)	2.96 (98)	152	47% (22)	306	4.6 (16)	#82 (.2)	44% (90)	23.2	44% (82)	44% (103)	4.12 (99)	41.2	1.2	1.5
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MEM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Offense	13	32.5	35	46.6%	4.6	1.2	23	458	152	306	4.6	43%	57%	47%	47%	13%	.3
NAVY Defense	12	25	24.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MEM Defense	13	23.2	20.8	43.7%	4.12	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	44%	44%	16%	.2
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	38	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Memphis	13	31:08	22.7	45%	64%	4.1	41.2	1.2	1.5	5.1	1.6	3	31.2
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Offense	13	43% (111)	47% (33)	33	152	4.6	31 (17)	.17 (57)	2.96 (98)	66% (117)	8% (25)	1.03 (52)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MEM Defense	13	49% (56)	44% (82)	-	-	-	-	.17 (92)	2.98 (46)	62% (15)	9% (92)	1.08 (105)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Offense	13	57% (19)	47% (22)	24.7	37	306.5	8.3	12.4	33 (11)	10 (56)	.42 (22)	1.6 (50)	27% (8)	39% (7)	.62 (5)	6% (49)	2.2 (23)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MEM Defense	13	50% (78)	44% (103)	-	-	-	-	-	-	11 (53)	.28 (75)	1.7 (88)	30% (112)	32% (93)	.3 (65)	7% (38)	2.2 (99)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

Memphis's Power Ratings
Memphis's Power Rating: 7.92 #36
Memphis's Offense Rating: 23.90 #29
Memphis's Defense Rating: 8.77 #61
2024 Talent Rating: 334.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 3% #74
Memphis's 2024 Expected Record: 11.0 - 2.0
Memphis's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.6 #31
Memphis's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #12
Memphis's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.2 #80

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 7.92 Navy: 5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Memphis: 9.6 Navy: 3.5

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 5.35 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Memphis Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 35
Defense: 23.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 20.8

Memphis's 2024 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Memphis 28
Navy 24

Projected Total Points: 52

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/27	Memphis	17	Navy	28	Memphis -3.5	Navy	57.5	Under
2024	09/21	Navy	56	Memphis	44	Memphis -9.5	Navy	47.0	Over
2023	09/14	Memphis	28	Navy	24	Memphis -12.5	Navy	47.0	Over
2022	09/10	Navy	13	Memphis	37	Memphis -4.5	Memphis	47.5	Over
2021	10/14	Memphis	35	Navy	17	Memphis -11	Memphis	55.5	Under
2020	11/28	Navy	7	Memphis	10	Memphis -13.5	Navy	62.5	Under
2019	09/26	Memphis	35	Navy	23	Memphis -11	Memphis	53.5	Over
2018	09/08	Navy	22	Memphis	21	Memphis -7	Navy	67.0	Under
2017	10/14	Memphis	30	Navy	27	Memphis -3.5	Navy	73.0	Under
2016	10/22	Navy	42	Memphis	28	Memphis -2	Navy	57.0	Over
2015	11/07	Memphis	20	Navy	45	Memphis -8.5	Navy	62.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	5	8	6 Overs
Memphis	6	3	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 4	6 - 5	2 - 4	4 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 7	5 - 6	1 - 4	4 - 2

(#36) MEM at (#53) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MEM	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#36	#53
SP+SP+	#31	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#37	#20
OffenseOff	#23	#19
DefenseDef	#67	#30
Spec TeamsST	#66	#3
TalentTal	#63	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#74	#102

Memphis Notes(12/18) Dumb, poorly coached football team
(12/17) DC Jordon Hankins makes zero adjustments
(11/28) Buried Tulane. Hennigan/Rgame good, R D great
(11/18) Off balanced and torched UAB. Still alive in AAC
(11/3) Def torched by UTSA, Henigan great/Rgame awful
(10/20) Def torched by N. Tex, Off was great esp Rgame
(10/13) Def stuff S Fla, 24 rush yds, 1.3 ypc. Off enough
(9/23) Huge L @ Navy. Had 660 yds in L, All. 361 Ryds
(9/15) Big W @ FSU. Henigan good, Run Def great
(8/13) Def should improve w/ P5 portals in (starters in P5)
(8/13) QB Henigan (10K yds), WR's are G5 best & freaks
(8/3) Fav'd in every game but FSU. USF/UTSA bigs
Memphis Injury Report

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

Memphis on Offense

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#23	#30
SuccessSuc	#23	#51
ExplosiveExp	#18	#59
PPAPPA	#18	#45
PowerPwr	#29	#31
SP+SP+	#12	#53
Pts POPPO	#16	#7
HavocHav	#23	#56

Memphis Run Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#29	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#33	#23
Run ExplRExp	#52	#16
PPAExp	#57	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#11	-
OL YdsOLY	#98	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#93	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

Memphis Pass Game

Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 46%
CategoryCat	MEM Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#31	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#22	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#50	#75
PPAExp	#22	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#9	#97
F7 HavocF7	#25	#36
DB HavocDB	#49	#88

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#67
SuccessSuc	#117	#90
ExplosiveExp	#111	#108
PPAPPA	#121	#82
PowerPwr	#27	#61
SP+SP+	#51	#80
Pts POPPO	#133	#99
HavocHav	#33	#66

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
Run GameRun	#42	#31
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#82
Run ExplRExp	#57	#105
PPAExp	#110	#92
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#46
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#24
TackleTak	-	#100

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	MEM Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#76
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#103
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#88
PPAExp	#121	#75
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#119
F7 HavocF7	#101	#92
DB HavocDB	#3	#38

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

MEM 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Memphis 9.5 (47.0)
Navy won vs Memphis this year (56-44)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Memphis last year (28-17)
Navy beat Memphis in 2024 (56-44)
Memphis beat Navy in 2023 (28-24)

MEM's OC Tim Cramsey (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Seth Henigan	309	477	65%	3502	25	6	7.3
Harris Boyd	1	1	100%	14	0	0	14.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Anderson (Tr)	236	1362	18	5.8	53
Brandon Thomas	57	335	9	5.9	57
Gregory DeRosiers	31	228	3	7.4	46
Seth Henigan	80	190	1	2.4	23

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Roc Taylor	66	950	2	14.4	48
DeMeer Blankumsee	45	677	6	15.0	89
Kobe Drake	39	484	1	12.4	29
Anthony Landphere	33	379	4	11.5	31

View Memphis's Full Roster

MEM's DC Jordon Hankins (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Matt Hudson (Tr)	60	4	1	1	0
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Chandler Martin	110	16	7	10	4
William Whitlow Jr.	24	8	5	3	1
Elijah Herring (Tr)	59	8	4	3	4
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Davion Ross	51	2	0	2	11
Gregory Rubin	74	6	0	3	8
Kobee Minor (Tr)	37	7	2	0	6

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4