Tulane at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview
Tulane logo Tulane Green Wave at Navy MidshipmenNavy logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Tulane -7.5 (49.0) (-285)  Open: -6.0
Tulane 35 - Navy: 0  (American Athletic)

 
Green Wave (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 35 - 21 (37 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
Losses: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
NAVY is playing their 5th straight game
TULN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Tulane -0.5   (SP+ TULN -2)

Projected Score: TULN: 27 - NAVY: 27 (54)
TULN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TULN Travel: 994 miles, 1 hrs behind
Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (39 - 26 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 6)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
Future: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Tulane's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Tulane vs SE Louisiana-28.555.5W 52 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Tulane vs Kansas State+8.547.5L 27 - 34OY
Sat 9/14 Tulane at Oklahoma+13.548.5L 19 - 34ON
Sat 9/21 Tulane at Louisiana-1.553.5W 41 - 33OY
Sat 9/28 Tulane vs South Florida-4.060.5W 45 - 10UY
Sat 10/5 Tulane at UAB-19.552.0W 71 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Tulane vs Rice-21.553.5W 24 - 10UN
Sat 10/26 Tulane at North Texas-7.570.5W 45 - 37OY
Thu 10/31 Tulane at Charlotte-14.555.5W 34 - 3UY
Sat 11/9 Tulane vs Temple-25.550.5W 52 - 6OY
Sat 11/16 Tulane at Navy-7.549.0W 35 - 0UY
BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28 Tulane vs Memphis-12.554.5L 24 - 34ON
Fri 12/6 Tulane at Army-4.546.5L 14 - 35ON
Fri 12/20 Tulane vs Florida+10.050.5L 8 - 33UN

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 4
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 3, Poor: 4
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Tulane's Schedule
Navy's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Navy vs Bucknell-31.548.5W 49 - 21ON
Sat 9/7 Navy vs Temple-11.543.5W 38 - 11OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21 Navy vs Memphis+9.547.0W 56 - 44OY
Sat 9/28 Navy at UAB-4.556.5W 41 - 18OY
Sat 10/5 Navy at Air Force-10.037.0W 34 - 7OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Navy vs Charlotte-16.557.5W 51 - 17OY
Sat 10/26 Navy vs Notre Dame+14.050.5L 14 - 51ON
Sat 11/2 Navy at Rice-12.549.0L 10 - 24UN
Sat 11/9 Navy at South Florida-4.559.5W 28 - 7UY
Sat 11/16 Navy vs Tulane+7.549.0L 0 - 35UN
BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29 Navy at East Carolina+2.554.0W 34 - 20UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14 Navy vs Army+6.039.5
Fri 12/27 Navy vs Oklahoma-1.044.0W 21 - 20UN

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 5
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TULN#20 (.27)45% (32)35.145% (61)3.15 (47)19747% (23)2094.5 (18)#14 (.07)38% (29)20.638% (14)39% (45)3.53 (42)50.11.11.6
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)31.346% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)22.246% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TULN#20 (.27)45% (32)45% (61)3.15 (47)19747% (23)2094.5 (18)#14 (.07)38% (29)38% (14)39% (45)3.53 (42)50.11.11.6
NAVY#12 (.31)44% (51)46% (43)3.27 (32)23139% (101)1174.39 (26)#28 (.1)41% (61)46% (95)37% (24)3.48 (35)41.91.11.8



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TULN Offense1435.13745.5%4.51.1214061972094.960%40%45%47%11%.27
NAVY Defense1322.225.641.2%3.481.8 - - - - - 51%48%46%37%14%.1
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TULN Defense1420.623.138.3%3.531.6 - - - - - 50%50%38%39%16%.07
NAVY Offense1331.338.844.2%4.391.1163472311175.574%26%46%39%11%.31

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tulane1432:1320.850%45%6.150.11.11.65.42.4734.5
Navy1327:4716.239%64%4.841.91.11.84.21.8331.6
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TULN Offense1460% (10)45% (61)40.1196.64.932 (14).14 (65)3.15 (47)75% (57)7% (14)0.94 (80)
NAVY Defense1351% (77)46% (95) - - - - .16 (89)3.27 (107)77% (89)9% (101)0.92 (39)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TULN Defense1450% (62)38% (14) - - - - .07 (41)2.97 (59)76% (80)11% (47)1.05 (99)
NAVY Offense1374% (3)46% (43)42.3230.75.535 (8).29 (10)3.27 (32)82% (15)8% (28)1.2 (7)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TULN Offense1440% (125)47% (23)14.823.5209.48.914.225 (31)9 (48).48 (4)1.8 (12)32% (76)36% (22).49 (12)4% (11)2.1 (34)
NAVY Defense1348% (57)37% (24) - - - - - - 17 (5).07 (8)1.5 (51)31% (85)25% (8).2 (30)5% (89)2.2 (112)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TULN Defense1450% (75)39% (45) - - - - - - 14 (23).07 (9)1.5 (21)32% (62)28% (31).18 (20)6% (85)1.9 (28)
NAVY Offense1326% (132)39% (101)7.112.8116.79.116.515 (98)6 (10).39 (15)2 (3)29% (26)27% (110).4 (37)3% (4)2.5 (2)

Tulane's Power Ratings
Tulane's Power Rating: 6.32 #40
Tulane's Offense Rating: 21.32 #53
Tulane's Defense Rating: 5.16 #28
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Tulane's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Tulane's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #43
Tulane's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Tulane's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 6.32   Navy: 5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 5.7   Navy: 3.5




Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 5.35 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Tulane Scoring
Offense: 35.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 20.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.1

Tulane's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Tulane 27
Navy 27


Total Points: 54

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.8
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.6

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Navy0Tulane35TulaneTulane -7.5Tulane49.0Under
202009/19Tulane24Navy27NavyTulane -5.5Navy44.5Over
201910/26Navy41Tulane38NavyNavy -4.5Tulane59.0Over
201811/24Tulane29Navy28TulaneTulane -5Navy51.5Over
201709/09Navy23Tulane21NavyNavy -8.5Tulane49.5Under
201609/17Tulane14Navy21NavyNavy -10.5Tulane42.0Under
201510/24Navy31Tulane14NavyNavy -22Tulane56.5Under
200511/05Navy49Tulane21Navy
200411/06Tulane42Navy10Tulane
200311/01Navy35Tulane17Navy
200210/26Tulane51Navy30Tulane
200111/10Navy28Tulane42Tulane
200011/10Tulane50Navy38Tulane
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Navy723 Overs
Tulane654 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 41 - 60 - 51 - 1
Road Teams4 - 96 - 11 - 15 - 0

(#40) Tulane Info
Power Rating: 6.32 #40
Offense Rating: 21.32 #53
Defense Rating: 5.16 #28
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #43
Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0

Team Profile
Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.5 PPO
Avg Run Success 45%
Good Pass Success 47%
Good OL Grades, Avg OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Good Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.53 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Avg Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Tulane has won 7 straight
Tulane has won 4 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 5 - 2 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Tulane Notes
(12/16) QB Mensah left via portal (Duke)
(12/16) Signed QB TJ Finley (WKU/T St/Aub/LSU)
(12/6) Mauled by Army in AACC, Run D mauled 335 yds
(11/28) Mauled by Memphis on Sr day, Outrushed 236-57.
(11/25) AAC title game vs Army
(11/16) 200+ rush yds in Navy W, Clinched AAC title game
(10/31) Very slow paced and methodical. Too conservative
(10/28) Scored 40+ pts in last 4 of 5, Navy/Memphis finish
(10/28) Most pts off TOs in CFB, 8+ PPG thru 8 weeks
(10/20) Even w/ Rice into 4th? Mensah/Rgame bad TW

Tulane Highlights
Tulane has Really Good Running Game (#19)
Tulane offense is good in red zone (#57)
Tulane offense is good on 3rd downs
Tulane Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tulane has a really good defense (#96)
Tulane has a good run defense (#109)
Tulane defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#6)

Tulane Deficiencies
Tulane Commits a Lot of Penalties (#118)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatNAVYTULN
OverallOver#16#6
OffenseOff#18#4
DefenseDef#23#17
Special TeamsST#3#51
PassingPass#98#12
RushingRush#28#8
Run BlockRBLK#16#9
Pass BlockPBLK#26#30
Route RunningWR Rt#25#9
TacklingTkl#14#76
Run DefenseR Def#29#48
Pass Rush DefPRush#83#2
Coverage DefCov#21#52

Rematch from Week 12
Tulane 7.5 (49.0)
Tulane won at Navy this year (35-0)

Previous Matchups
Tulane beat Navy last year (35-0)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TULN | NAVY
Depth Chart: TULN | NAVY
Rosters: TULN | NAVY
(#53) Navy Info
Power Rating: 5.35 #53
Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Good Offensive Explosiveness
Good in Scoring Position 4.39 PPO
Good Run Success 46%
Poor Pass Success 39%
Good OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.48 PPO
Poor Run Def Success 46%
Good Pass Def Success 37%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Navy has won 1 straight
Navy has lost 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 1 (3 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Navy Notes
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now

Navy Highlights
Navy has Really Good Running Game (#1)
Navy offense is explosive (#102)
Navy offense is good in red zone (#31)
Navy does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#5)

Navy defense does not give up big plays (#92)
Navy has a good pass defense (#89)
Navy commits very few Penalties (#59)
Navy defense Intercepts a lot of Passes (#28)

Navy Deficiencies
Navy pass game is really bad (#32)
Navy Does Not Stuff Runs (#50)
Navy has a bad defensive line (#37)


  
Tulane's OC Joe Craddock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Darian Mensah17226266%25142059.6
Ty Thompson (Tr)61155%74206.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Makhi Hughes2431306155.451
Arnold Barnes8339664.827
Ty Thompson (Tr)4024366.150
Ashaad Clayton2719817.328
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Mario Williams (Tr)48831417.368
Dontae Fleming29577119.953
Yulkeith Brown31440414.242
Alex Bauman15171611.436

View Tulane's Full Roster
Tulane's DC Greg Gasparato
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Grubbs585211
Sam Howard (Tr)564201
Bailey Despanie493001
Jack Tchienchou (Tr)471000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kameron Hamilton216540
Patrick Jenkins307512
Matthew Fobbs-White218401
Adin Huntington (Tr)285401
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Micah Robinson (Tr)291006
Javion White92003
Rayshawn Pleasant351003

Navy's OC Drew Cronic
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Blake Horvath8013958%13531349.7
Braxton Woodson183650%243226.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Blake Horvath1761254177.195
Alex Tecza12355684.565
Eli Heidenreich6544436.860
Daba Fofana6026324.449
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Eli Heidenreich39671617.274
Brandon Chatman18257414.346
Alex Tecza12229219.146
Nathan Kent10222222.277

View Navy's Full Roster
Navy's DC P.J. Volker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Colin Ramos1299342
Kyle Jacob1025122
Rayuan Lane701004
Luke Pirris686351
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Justin Reed4911641
Landon Robinson616570
Colin Ramos1299342
Luke Pirris686351
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dashaun Peele454205
Rayuan Lane701004
Andrew Duhart292004