Tulane at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 16th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Tulane -7.5 (49.0) (-285) Open: -6.0
Tulane 35 - Navy: 0 (American Athletic)

Green Wave (9 - 5) (9 - 5 - 0)
Coach Jon Sumrall (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 24 (26 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9 - 5 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NAVY is playing their 5th straight game
TULN is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Tulane -0.5 (SP+ TULN -2)
Projected Score: TULN: 27 - NAVY: 27 (54)
TULN Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
TULN Travel: 994 miles, 1 hrs behind

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
TULN Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Tulane's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Tulane vs SE Louisiana	-28.5	55.5	W 52 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Tulane vs Kansas State	+8.5	47.5	L 27 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Tulane at Oklahoma	+13.5	48.5	L 19 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/21	Tulane at Louisiana	-1.5	53.5	W 41 - 33	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Tulane vs South Florida	-4.0	60.5	W 45 - 10	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Tulane at UAB	-19.5	52.0	W 71 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Tulane vs Rice	-21.5	53.5	W 24 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/26	Tulane at North Texas	-7.5	70.5	W 45 - 37	O	Y
Thu 10/31	Tulane at Charlotte	-14.5	55.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/9	Tulane vs Temple	-25.5	50.5	W 52 - 6	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Tulane at Navy	-7.5	49.0	W 35 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Thu 11/28	Tulane vs Memphis	-12.5	54.5	L 24 - 34	O	N
Fri 12/6	Tulane at Army	-4.5	46.5	L 14 - 35	O	N
Fri 12/20	Tulane vs Florida	+10.0	50.5	L 8 - 33	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tulane's Schedule

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TULN	#70 (.19)	42% (61)	27.7	40% (108)	3.13 (63)	155	47% (27)	215	3.62 (91)	#56 (.16)	41% (55)	23.9	40% (42)	43% (83)	3.7 (61)	42.9	1.4	2
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
TULN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TULN Offense	14	27.7	26.4	42.4%	3.62	1.4	18	370	155	215	4.1	56%	43%	40%	47%	14%	.19
NAVY Defense	12	25	24.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
TULN Defense	14	23.9	32	41.1%	3.7	2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	40%	43%	18%	.16
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	38	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Tulane	14	31:20	18.4	38%	59%	4.8	42.9	1.4	2	5.9	2.4	2	33.7
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TULN Offense	14	56% (21)	40% (108)	37.6	155.1	4.1	16 (89)	.09 (104)	3.13 (63)	72% (89)	8% (36)	0.88 (121)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
TULN Defense	14	45% (14)	40% (42)	-	-	-	-	.09 (34)	3.03 (54)	77% (94)	11% (46)	1.01 (75)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TULN Offense	14	43% (109)	47% (27)	16.4	26.3	215	8.2	13.1	25 (37)	7 (21)	.35 (40)	1.6 (77)	29% (24)	29% (83)	.28 (86)	6% (57)	2 (101)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
TULN Defense	14	54% (121)	43% (83)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.25 (54)	1.4 (13)	34% (40)	29% (53)	.23 (28)	7% (24)	1.8 (15)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

Tulane's Power Ratings
Tulane's Power Rating: 6.32 #40
Tulane's Offense Rating: 21.32 #53
Tulane's Defense Rating: 5.16 #28
2024 Talent Rating: 334.00 #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4% #65
Tulane's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 5.0
Tulane's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.7 #43
Tulane's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #30
Tulane's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.1 #73

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 6.32 Navy: 5.35

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tulane: 5.7 Navy: 3.5

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 5.35 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Tulane Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 23.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32

Tulane's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 9 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 5 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Tulane 27
Navy 27

Projected Total Points: 54

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/16	Navy	0	Tulane	35	Tulane -7.5	Tulane	49.0	Under
2020	09/19	Tulane	24	Navy	27	Tulane -5.5	Navy	44.5	Over
2019	10/26	Navy	41	Tulane	38	Navy -4.5	Tulane	59.0	Over
2018	11/24	Tulane	29	Navy	28	Tulane -5	Navy	51.5	Over
2017	09/09	Navy	23	Tulane	21	Navy -8.5	Tulane	49.5	Under
2016	09/17	Tulane	14	Navy	21	Navy -10.5	Tulane	42.0	Under
2015	10/24	Navy	31	Tulane	14	Navy -22	Tulane	56.5	Under
2005	11/05	Navy	49	Tulane	21
2004	11/06	Tulane	42	Navy	10
2003	11/01	Navy	35	Tulane	17
2002	10/26	Tulane	51	Navy	30
2001	11/10	Navy	28	Tulane	42
2000	11/10	Tulane	50	Navy	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	7	2	3 Overs
Tulane	6	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 4	1 - 6	0 - 5	1 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 9	6 - 1	1 - 1	5 - 0

(#40) TULN at (#53) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	TULN	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#40	#53
SP+SP+	#43	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#6	#20
OffenseOff	#4	#19
DefenseDef	#22	#30
Spec TeamsST	#61	#3
TalentTal	#63	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#65	#102

Tulane Notes(12/27) Lost QB and RB Hughes to portal
(12/16) QB Mensah left via portal (Duke)
(12/16) Signed QB TJ Finley (WKU/T St/Aub/LSU)
(12/6) Mauled by Army in AACC, Run D mauled 335 yds
(11/28) Mauled by Memphis on Sr day, Outrushed 236-57.
(11/25) AAC title game vs Army
(11/16) 200+ rush yds in Navy W, Clinched AAC title game
(10/31) Very slow paced and methodical. Too conservative
(10/28) Scored 40+ pts in last 4 of 5, Navy/Memphis finish
(10/28) Most pts off TOs in CFB, 8+ PPG thru 8 weeks
(10/20) Even w/ Rice into 4th? Mensah/Rgame bad TW
(10/6) Gaining on G5 best. 136-20 last 2 games.
Tulane Injury Report

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

Tulane on Offense

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#4	#30
SuccessSuc	#61	#51
ExplosiveExp	#112	#59
PPAPPA	#70	#45
PowerPwr	#53	#31
SP+SP+	#30	#53
Pts POPPO	#91	#7
HavocHav	#32	#56

Tulane Run Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#8	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#108	#23
Run ExplRExp	#121	#16
PPAExp	#104	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#10	-
OL YdsOLY	#63	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#33	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

Tulane Pass Game

Very Run heavy Offense 60%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	TULN Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#14	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#27	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#77	#75
PPAExp	#40	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#30	#97
F7 HavocF7	#36	#36
DB HavocDB	#57	#88

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TULN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#22
SuccessSuc	#117	#55
ExplosiveExp	#111	#43
PPAPPA	#121	#56
PowerPwr	#27	#28
SP+SP+	#51	#73
Pts POPPO	#133	#61
HavocHav	#33	#29

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TULN Def
Run GameRun	#42	#60
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#42
Run ExplRExp	#57	#75
PPAExp	#110	#34
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#54
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#67
TackleTak	-	#88

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	TULN Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#64
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#83
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#13
PPAExp	#121	#54
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#2
F7 HavocF7	#101	#46
DB HavocDB	#3	#24

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

TULN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'24 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 12
Tulane 7.5 (49.0)
Tulane won at Navy this year (35-0)

Previous Matchups
Tulane beat Navy in 2024 (35-0)

TULN's OC Joe Craddock (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Darian Mensah	172	262	66%	2514	20	5	9.6
Ty Thompson (Tr)	6	11	55%	74	2	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Makhi Hughes	243	1306	15	5.4	51
Arnold Barnes	83	396	6	4.8	27
Ty Thompson (Tr)	40	243	6	6.1	50
Ashaad Clayton	27	198	1	7.3	28

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mario Williams (Tr)	48	831	4	17.3	68
Dontae Fleming	29	577	1	19.9	53
Yulkeith Brown	31	440	4	14.2	42
Alex Bauman	15	171	6	11.4	36

View Tulane's Full Roster

TULN's DC Greg Gasparato (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Tyler Grubbs	58	5	2	1	1
Sam Howard (Tr)	56	4	2	0	1
Bailey Despanie	49	3	0	0	1
Jack Tchienchou (Tr)	47	1	0	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kameron Hamilton	21	6	5	4	0
Patrick Jenkins	30	7	5	1	2
Matthew Fobbs-White	21	8	4	0	1
Adin Huntington (Tr)	28	5	4	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Micah Robinson (Tr)	29	1	6
Javion White	9	2	3
Rayshawn Pleasant	35	1	3

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4