Oklahoma at Navy - 2024 Matchup Preview

Friday, December 27th 2024 (12:00 PM EST)
Navy -1 (44.0) (-112) Open: 0.0 | 46.5
Navy 21 - Oklahoma: 20 (Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl)

Sooners (6 - 7) (6 - 6 - 1)
Coach Brent Venables (16 - 10)
Avg Score : 26 - 16 (31 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6 - 7 (#72)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Bowl Game Opt Outs
Our Line: Oklahoma -6.5 (SP+ OKLA -6)
Projected Score: OKLA: 27 - NAVY: 21 (48)
NAVY Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
OKLA Travel: 173 miles

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 32 - 25 (38 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
Bowls
OKLA Players
NAVY Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Oklahoma's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 8/30	Oklahoma vs Temple	-42.5	59.5	W 51 - 3	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Oklahoma vs Houston	-27.5	48.5	W 16 - 12	U	N
Sat 9/14	Oklahoma vs Tulane	-13.5	48.5	W 34 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Oklahoma vs Tennessee	+6.0	57.0	L 15 - 25	U	N
Sat 9/28	Oklahoma at Auburn	+2.0	43.0	W 27 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Oklahoma vs Texas	+16.5	48.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 10/19	Oklahoma vs South Carolina	+1.0	40.5	L 9 - 35	O	N
Sat 10/26	Oklahoma at Ole Miss	+19.0	50.0	L 14 - 26	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Oklahoma vs Maine	-37.5	48.5	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/9	Oklahoma at Missouri	-3.5	41.5	L 23 - 30	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Oklahoma vs Alabama	+14.0	47.0	W 24 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/30	Oklahoma at LSU	+4.5	47.5	L 17 - 37	O	N
Fri 12/27	Oklahoma vs Navy	+1.0	44.0	L 20 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Oklahoma's Schedule

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA	#9 (.34)	50% (8)	26.2	48% (22)	3.11 (67)	182	52% (6)	325	4.56 (18)	#27 (.12)	39% (32)	15.5	39% (31)	39% (36)	3.36 (28)	58.2	1.5	2
NAVY	#121 (.07)	37% (117)	31.5	39% (111)	2.86 (108)	195	32% (131)	106	2.38 (133)	#45 (.15)	41% (51)	25	37% (23)	45% (114)	2.84 (7)	46	1	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
OKLA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NAVY		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Offense	13	26.2	31	50.1%	4.56	1.5	25	507	182	325	4.6	49%	51%	48%	52%	13%	.34
NAVY Defense	12	25	24.2	40.6%	2.84	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	37%	45%	17%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
OKLA Defense	13	15.5	14.5	38.5%	3.36	2	-	-	-	-	-	45%	54%	39%	39%	17%	.12
NAVY Offense	12	31.5	38	37.1%	2.38	1	15	300	195	106	4.3	71%	29%	39%	32%	14%	.07

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Oklahoma	13	29:03	25.5	49%	68%	6.8	58.2	1.5	2	6.4	1.4	5	29.4
Navy	12	31:15	14.5	29%	62%	5.7	46	1	2	5.2	2.3	1	32.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Offense	13	49% (73)	48% (22)	40.1	182.2	4.6	32 (10)	.16 (62)	3.11 (67)	85% (3)	8% (27)	0.95 (95)
NAVY Defense	12	50% (67)	37% (23)	-	-	-	-	.02 (15)	2.87 (30)	67% (34)	11% (36)	0.86 (16)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
OKLA Defense	13	45% (15)	39% (31)	-	-	-	-	.05 (22)	2.65 (11)	47% (1)	10% (59)	1.06 (98)
NAVY Offense	12	71% (3)	39% (111)	45.7	194.6	4.3	16 (89)	.07 (110)	2.86 (108)	72% (83)	12% (101)	1.02 (57)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Offense	13	51% (54)	52% (6)	23.8	34.8	324.8	9.3	13.6	34 (9)	9 (40)	.55 (6)	1.6 (47)	29% (27)	38% (12)	.46 (27)	5% (34)	2.1 (39)
NAVY Defense	12	49% (65)	45% (114)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (67)	.33 (103)	1.6 (75)	31% (97)	28% (40)	.34 (83)	6% (88)	2.2 (113)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
OKLA Defense	13	54% (120)	39% (36)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (2)	.2 (26)	1.7 (114)	36% (13)	31% (86)	.33 (75)	7% (41)	2.3 (124)
NAVY Offense	12	29% (131)	32% (131)	8.5	16.6	105.7	6.4	12.4	10 (120)	5 (6)	.11 (121)	1.8 (15)	31% (61)	21% (132)	.06 (131)	2% (3)	2 (88)

Oklahoma's Power Ratings
Oklahoma's Power Rating: 9.59 #33
Oklahoma's Offense Rating: 12.20 #119
Oklahoma's Defense Rating: 1.17 #6
2024 Talent Rating: 626.00 #4
Blue Chip Ratio: 52% #10
Oklahoma's 2024 Expected Record: 6.0 - 7.0
Oklahoma's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Oklahoma's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.9 #75
Oklahoma's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 9.59 Navy: 2.85

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Oklahoma: 9.5 Navy: 3.5

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.85 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 39.00 #134
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 238.57
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Oklahoma Scoring
Offense: 26.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 31
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 14.5

Oklahoma's 2024 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Oklahoma 27
Navy 21

Projected Total Points: 48

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 38
Defense: 25 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	12/27	Navy	21	Oklahoma	20	Navy -1	Push	44.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Navy	1	0	0 Overs
Oklahoma	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

Oklahoma Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Forces Bowl	Oklahoma vs Navy	+1.0	44.0	L 20 - 21
2023	Alamo Bowl	Oklahoma vs Arizona	+2.5	59.5	L 24 - 38
2022	It Bowl	Oklahoma vs Florida State	+10.5	67.0	L 32 - 35
2021	Alamo Bowl	Oklahoma vs Oregon	-7.0	64.0	W 47 - 32
2020	Cotton Bowl	Oklahoma vs Florida	+3.0	72.0	W 55 - 20
2019	CFP Semifinal	Oklahoma vs LSU	+13.0	75.0	L 28 - 63
2018	CFP Semifinal	Oklahoma vs Alabama	+14.5	81.5	L 34 - 45

Navy Recent Bowl History
Date	Bowl	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result
2024	Forces Bowl	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20
2019	N/A	Navy vs Kansas State	-2.0	53.5	W 20 - 17

(#33) OKLA at (#53) NAVY

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	OKLA	NAVY
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#33	#53
SP+SP+	#33	#57
Perf GradeGrade	#90	#20
OffenseOff	#133	#19
DefenseDef	#12	#30
Spec TeamsST	#50	#3
TalentTal	#4	#134
Blue ChipsBC%	#10	#102

Oklahoma Notes(12/18) Signed QB Mateer (Wazzu)
(12/18) QB Arnold left via portal (Auburn)
(12/2) Hired Wazzu OC Arbuckle, top 25 pass off 4 yrs
(12/2) Rgame meh, Arnold bad, Pass D torched in LSU L
(11/24) Huge W vs Bama. Rgame 251, 5.1 ypc. Def great
(11/13) Arnold awful, Rgame bad, Def choked vs Mizzu
(10/28) OL allowed 19 sacks in past 2 gms (SC/Miss)
(10/20) OC Littrell fired, Co-OC Finley taking over
(10/12) Have no answers on Off. Def cannot hold 4ever
(10/10) Top 5 WR are out vs Texas w/ injuries
(10/4) Gutty W @ Aub. OG'd by 200 yds, Hawkins meh
(9/23) Hawkins must be QB going forward. Arnold done
Oklahoma Injury Report

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

Oklahoma on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	NAVY Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#30
SuccessSuc	#8	#51
ExplosiveExp	#55	#59
PPAPPA	#9	#45
PowerPwr	#119	#31
SP+SP+	#75	#53
Pts POPPO	#18	#7
HavocHav	#18	#56

Oklahoma Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#133	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#22	#23
Run ExplRExp	#95	#16
PPAExp	#62	#15
Run BlockR Blk	#109	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#30
Stuff RateStuff	#90	#33
TackleTak	-	#16

Oklahoma Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	OKLA Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#126	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#6	#114
Pass ExplPExl	#47	#75
PPAExp	#6	#103
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#110	#97
F7 HavocF7	#27	#36
DB HavocDB	#34	#88

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	OKLA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#19	#12
SuccessSuc	#117	#32
ExplosiveExp	#111	#124
PPAPPA	#121	#27
PowerPwr	#27	#6
SP+SP+	#51	#17
Pts POPPO	#133	#28
HavocHav	#33	#46

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	OKLA Def
Run GameRun	#42	#5
Run SuccessRSuc	#111	#31
Run ExplRExp	#57	#98
PPAExp	#110	#22
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#108	#11
Stuff RateStuff	#84	#1
TackleTak	-	#45

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	OKLA Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	#131	#36
Pass ExplPExl	#15	#114
PPAExp	#121	#26
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#26	#9
F7 HavocF7	#101	#59
DB HavocDB	#3	#41

Program Comparison
NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'24 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

OKLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Top 25 Contenders
'24 Profile: Down to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Amon G. Carter Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 1
Navy -1.0 (44.0)
Navy won vs Oklahoma this year (21-20)

Previous Matchups
Navy beat Oklahoma in 2024 (21-20)

OKLA's OC Seth Littrell (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jackson Arnold	154	246	63%	1421	12	3	5.8
Michael Hawkins Jr.	76	120	63%	783	3	2	6.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jovantae Barnes	122	577	5	4.7	74
Jackson Arnold	150	444	3	3.0	47
Taylor Tatum	56	278	3	5.0	35
Xavier Robinson	49	233	4	4.8	40

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Bauer Sharp (Tr)	42	324	2	7.7	43
Javian Hester	14	315	1	22.5	90
Deion Burks (Tr)	31	245	3	7.9	20
Jacob Jordan	27	234	1	8.7	27

View Oklahoma's Full Roster

OKLA's DC Zac Alley (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Danny Stutsman	110	8	1	3	0
Robert Spears-Jennings	66	5	3	0	1
Kip Lewis	63	4	0	1	1
Billy Bowman	55	3	0	1	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
R Mason Thomas	23	13	9	11	1
Gracen Halton	30	6	5	3	0
Ethan Downs	29	9	3	2	2
Robert Spears-Jennings	66	5	3	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Kani Walker	24	2	0	6
Eli Bowen	29	2	0	4
Billy Bowman	55	3	1	3

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4