Navy at Rice - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 2nd 2024 (4:00 PM EDT)
Navy -12.5 (49.0) (-455) Open: -14.5
Rice 24 - Navy: 10 (American Athletic)

Midshipmen (10 - 3) (8 - 4 - 1)
Coach Brian Newberry (5 - 7)
Avg Score : 31 - 22 (29 - 15 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

RICE is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Navy -10.5 (SP+ NAVY -15)
Projected Score: NAVY: 30 - RICE: 19 (49)
NAVY Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
NAVY Travel: 1250 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Owls (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Pete Alamar (Int) (22 - 46)
Avg Score : 22 - 25 (32 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4 - 8 (#101)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NAVY Players
RICE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Navy's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Navy vs Bucknell	-31.5	48.5	W 49 - 21	O	N
Sat 9/7	Navy vs Temple	-11.5	43.5	W 38 - 11	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/21	Navy vs Memphis	+9.5	47.0	W 56 - 44	O	Y
Sat 9/28	Navy at UAB	-4.5	56.5	W 41 - 18	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Navy at Air Force	-10.0	37.0	W 34 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Navy vs Charlotte	-16.5	57.5	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Navy vs Notre Dame	+14.0	50.5	L 14 - 51	O	N
Sat 11/2	Navy at Rice	-12.5	49.0	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/9	Navy at South Florida	-4.5	59.5	W 28 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Navy vs Tulane	+7.5	49.0	L 0 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Fri 11/29	Navy at East Carolina	+2.5	54.0	W 34 - 20	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/14	Navy vs Army	+6.0	39.5
Fri 12/27	Navy vs Oklahoma	-1.0	44.0	W 21 - 20	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Navy's Schedule

Rice's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Rice vs Sam Houston	-9.5	49.0	L 14 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/7	Rice vs Texas Southern	-30.0	52.5	W 69 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Rice at Houston	+3.5	43.5	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/21	Rice at Army	+7.0	44.0	L 14 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/28	Rice vs Charlotte	-4.0	48.0	L 20 - 21	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12	Rice vs UTSA	+3.5	51.0	W 29 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Rice at Tulane	+21.5	53.5	L 10 - 24	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Rice at UConn	+6.5	47.0	L 10 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/2	Rice vs Navy	+12.5	49.0	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Fri 11/8	Rice at Memphis	+7.5	50.5	L 20 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/23	Rice at UAB	-7.0	52.0	L 14 - 40	O	N
Sat 11/30	Rice vs South Florida	+5.5	53.5	W 35 - 28	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)	31.3	46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)	22.2	46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)	22.2	36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)	25.4	40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NAVY	#12 (.31)	44% (51)		46% (43)	3.27 (32)	231	39% (101)	117	4.39 (26)	#28 (.1)	41% (61)		46% (95)	37% (24)	3.48 (35)	41.9	1.1	1.8
RICE	#126 (.05)	35% (127)		36% (127)	2.7 (118)	115	35% (121)	239	3.27 (119)	#60 (.16)	37% (11)		40% (37)	34% (4)	3.72 (62)	57.4	1.8	1

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Offense	13	31.3	29.4	44.2%	4.39	1.1	16	347	231	117	5.5	74%	26%	46%	39%	11%	.31
RICE Defense	12	25.4	21.2	37%	3.72	1	-	-	-	-	-	55%	45%	40%	34%	17%	.16

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NAVY Defense	13	22.2	15.2	41.2%	3.48	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	46%	37%	14%	.1
RICE Offense	12	22.2	31.8	35.5%	3.27	1.8	18	354	115	239	4.6	37%	62%	36%	35%	20%	.05

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Navy	13	27:47	16.2	39%	64%	4.8	41.9	1.1	1.8	4.2	1.8	3	31.6
Rice	12	28:40	18.3	35%	35%	7.1	57.4	1.8	1	6.3	2.7	2	32.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Offense	13	74% (3)	46% (43)	42.3	230.7	5.5	35 (8)	.29 (10)	3.27 (32)	82% (15)	8% (28)	1.2 (7)
RICE Defense	12	55% (112)	40% (37)	-	-	-	-	.16 (85)	3.06 (80)	76% (83)	11% (45)	1.07 (103)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NAVY Defense	13	51% (77)	46% (95)	-	-	-	-	.16 (89)	3.27 (107)	77% (89)	9% (101)	0.92 (39)
RICE Offense	12	37% (132)	36% (127)	24.8	114.5	4.6	14 (98)	-.03 (126)	2.7 (118)	86% (3)	10% (63)	1 (55)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Offense	13	26% (132)	39% (101)	7.1	12.8	116.7	9.1	16.5	15 (98)	6 (10)	.39 (15)	2 (3)	29% (26)	27% (110)	.4 (37)	3% (4)	2.5 (2)
RICE Defense	12	45% (24)	34% (4)	-	-	-	-	-	-	8 (93)	.16 (33)	1.7 (109)	34% (30)	24% (4)	.19 (23)	6% (70)	2.1 (81)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NAVY Defense	13	48% (57)	37% (24)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (5)	.07 (8)	1.5 (51)	31% (85)	25% (8)	.2 (30)	5% (89)	2.2 (112)
RICE Offense	12	62% (4)	35% (121)	24.3	39.8	239	6	9.8	17 (79)	13 (103)	.11 (121)	1.5 (97)	38% (129)	25% (119)	.17 (119)	10% (133)	1.9 (104)

Navy's Power Ratings
Navy's Power Rating: 2.20 #53
Navy's Offense Rating: 24.12 #27
Navy's Defense Rating: 5.57 #31
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #102
Navy's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Navy's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.5 #57
Navy's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.5 #51
Navy's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.4 #53

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Navy: 2.20 Rice: -7.57

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Navy: 3.5 Rice: -11.4

Rice's Power Ratings
Rice's Power Rating: -7.57 #95
Rice's Offense Rating: 11.53 #123
Rice's Defense Rating: 3.01 #12
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #102
Rice's 2024 Expected Record: 4.0 - 8.0
Rice's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.4 #109
Rice's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Rice's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.4 #94

Average Talent
Average American Athletic Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Navy Scoring
Offense: 31.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 29.4
Defense: 22.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 15.2

Navy's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 8 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record on Road: 5 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 1 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 1
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Navy 30
Rice 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Last 4 Games
Navy 30
Rice 19

Total Points: 49

Based on Entire Season
Navy 27
Rice 23

Total Points: 50

Rice Scoring
Offense: 22.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.8
Defense: 25.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.2

Rice's 2024 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Navy	21	Rice	13	Navy -14	Rice	45.5	Under
2024	11/02	Rice	24	Navy	10	Navy -12.5	Rice	49.0	Under
2009	10/10	Rice	14	Navy	63
2005	10/22	Rice	9	Navy	41
2004	10/23	Navy	14	Rice	13
2003	10/18	Rice	6	Navy	38
2002	10/12	Navy	10	Rice	17
2001	10/13	Navy	13	Rice	21

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Rice	3	2	0 Overs
Navy	5	0	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 5	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#53) NAVY at (#95) RICE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NAVY	RICE
Power RatePwr	#53	#95
SP+SP+	#57	#109
Perf GradeGrade	#20	#103
OffenseOff	#19	#117
DefenseDef	#30	#43
Spec TeamsST	#3	#105
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#102

Navy Notes(12/28) Beat OU in bowl, 225+ rushing. Great season
(12/14) Dominated Army, Rgame 275+, Def was perfect
(11/29) Backup QB Woodson torched ECU in finale
(11/29) Run Def great, held ECU to 4-15 on 3rd, 1-3 4th
(11/18) Off abysmal vs Tulane, can't play with quality opps
(11/3) Horvath playing hurt (thumb) not the same
(11/3) Sinking L (Rice), 2 TOs, Rgame was really bad
(10/28) 7.5 ppg via TOs even after the ND game (6 TOs)
(10/22) Def has a stop rate of 73% (#15) into ND game
(10/20) Even w/ Char but forced 5 TOs. Outrushed
(10/18) Run Def is atrocious & schedule gets harder now
(9/23) OC Cronic has been a revelation. Staff saver.
Navy Injury Report

Rice Notes(11/26) Hired Scott Abell (Davidson) 47-28 in 7 yrs
(11/26) New HC Abell runs shotgun triple option
(11/25) Bad team awful on road, L to UAB? 4 TOs, Bad D
(11/3) Beat Navy, Run Def great, Off enough in W
(10/28) QB Warner DNP vs UConn, Devillier awful
(10/27) Bloomgren fired, AHC/ST Alamar interim
(10/20) Even w/ Tulane, Warner 3 Int, 5 TOs killed em
(10/12) QB Warner lit UTSA, Rgame awful, Def meh
(10/8) Strange L (Char), OG'd+ 150yds, 0 TO's, still lost
(9/23) Killed by Army, can't run, can't defend. Bad team
(9/17) Off Succ (#132), Expl (#123). Def top 10 Succ
(9/1) Way off on Rice, killed by S Hou, lines abysmal
Rice Injury Report

Navy on Offense

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	RICE Def
Perf GradePerf	#19	#43
SuccessSuc	#51	#11
ExplosiveExp	#11	#99
PPAPPA	#12	#60
PowerPwr	#27	#12
SP+SP+	#51	#94
Pts POPPO	#26	#62
HavocHav	#6	#55

Navy Run Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	RICE Def
Run GameRun	#42	#100
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#37
Run ExplRExp	#7	#103
PPAExp	#10	#85
Run BlockR Blk	#18	-
OL YdsOLY	#32	#80
Stuff RateStuff	#14	#110
TackleTak	-	#32

Navy Pass Game

Option Offense 74%, Pass: 26%
CategoryCat	NAVY Off	RICE Def
Pass GamePass	#121	#14
Pass SuccessPSuc	#101	#4
Pass ExplPExl	#3	#109
PPAExp	#15	#33
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#26	#47
F7 HavocF7	#28	#45
DB HavocDB	#4	#70

Rice on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	NAVY Def
Perf GradePerf	#117	#30
SuccessSuc	#127	#61
ExplosiveExp	#36	#28
PPAPPA	#126	#28
PowerPwr	#123	#31
SP+SP+	#110	#53
Pts POPPO	#119	#35
HavocHav	#123	#104

Rice Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	NAVY Def
Run GameRun	#111	#37
Run SuccessRSuc	#127	#95
Run ExplRExp	#55	#39
PPAExp	#126	#89
Run BlockR Blk	#115	-
OL YdsOLY	#118	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#81	#122
TackleTak	-	#16

Rice Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	RICE Off	NAVY Def
Pass GamePass	#99	#29
Pass SuccessPSuc	#121	#24
Pass ExplPExl	#97	#51
PPAExp	#121	#8
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#94	#97
F7 HavocF7	#63	#101
DB HavocDB	#133	#89

Program Comparison
RICE 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

NAVY 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Rice Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 78° - Wind: 8 mph
Rain: 0.102

Rematch from Week 10
Navy 12.5 (49.0)
Rice won vs Navy this year (24-10)

Previous Matchups
Rice beat Navy last year (24-10)

NAVY's OC Drew Cronic (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Blake Horvath	80	139	58%	1353	13	4	9.7
Braxton Woodson	18	36	50%	243	2	2	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Blake Horvath	176	1254	17	7.1	95
Alex Tecza	123	556	8	4.5	65
Eli Heidenreich	65	444	3	6.8	60
Daba Fofana	60	263	2	4.4	49

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Eli Heidenreich	39	671	6	17.2	74
Brandon Chatman	18	257	4	14.3	46
Alex Tecza	12	229	2	19.1	46
Nathan Kent	10	222	2	22.2	77

View Navy's Full Roster

NAVY's DC P.J. Volker (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Kyle Jacob	102	5	1	2	2
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	0	4
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Justin Reed	49	11	6	4	1
Landon Robinson	61	6	5	7	0
Colin Ramos	129	9	3	4	2
Luke Pirris	68	6	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Dashaun Peele	45	4	2	5
Rayuan Lane	70	1	0	4
Andrew Duhart	29	2	0	4

RICE's OC Marques Tuiasosopo (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
E.J. Warner (Tr)	271	438	62%	2710	17	13	6.2
Drew Devillier	20	38	53%	137	0	0	3.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dean Connors	159	780	9	4.9	71
Quinton Jackson	48	275	1	5.7	45
Taji Atkins	24	158	2	6.6	33
Christian Francisco	19	78	0	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Matt Sykes	65	795	5	12.2	37
Dean Connors	61	472	2	7.7	69
Kobie Campbell	32	372	1	11.6	33
Braylen Walker	22	264	1	12.0	50

View Rice's Full Roster

RICE's DC Brian Smith (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Anthony Morris	49	8	5	0	0
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6
Andrew Awe	44	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Ty Anthony Morris	49	8	5	0	0
Josh Pearcy	35	6	4	4	0
Michael Daley (Tr)	14	6	3	1	0
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	0	6

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Max Ahoia	34	1	0	8
Sean Fresch	47	1	0	8
Gabe Taylor	45	7	3	6