Virginia at Notre Dame Game Matchup
Virginia logo Virginia Cavaliers at Notre Dame Fighting IrishNotre Dame logo
Saturday, November 16th 2024 (3:30 PM EST)
Notre Dame -20.5 (51.0) (-1800)  Open: -20.0
Notre Dame 35 - Virginia: 14

 
Cavaliers (5 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach Tony Elliott (6 - 16)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (27 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 2) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Wind: 15 MPH
UVA 2nd straight Road Game
ND 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Notre Dame -30.5   (SP+ ND -29)

Projected Score: UVA: 11 - ND: 41 (52)
ND Win prob: 94% | Cover: 54%
UVA Travel: 481 miles
Fighting Irish (14 - 2) (13 - 3 - 0)
Coach Marcus Freeman (19 - 8)
Avg Score : 36 - 16 (34 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 14 - 2 (#1)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
 
Virginia's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Virginia vs Richmond W 34 - 13
Sat 9/7 Virginia at Wake Forest-1.555.5W 31 - 30ON
Sat 9/14 Virginia vs Maryland-2.555.5L 13 - 27UN
Sat 9/21 Virginia at Coastal Carolina-3.552.0W 43 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Virginia vs Boston College-2.052.5W 24 - 14UY
Sat 10/12 Virginia vs Louisville+7.054.0L 20 - 24UY
Sat 10/19 Virginia at Clemson+20.057.5L 31 - 48OY
Sat 10/26 Virginia vs North Carolina-3.558.5L 14 - 41UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Virginia at Pittsburgh+7.556.5W 24 - 19UY
Sat 11/16 Virginia at Notre Dame+20.551.0L 14 - 35UN
Sat 11/23 Virginia vs SMU+11.554.5L 7 - 33UN
Sat 11/30 Virginia at Virginia Tech+4.544.5L 17 - 37ON

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 1
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 1
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 1, Avg: 1, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Virginia's Schedule
Notre Dame's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Notre Dame at Texas A&M+3.047.0W 23 - 13UY
Sat 9/7 Notre Dame vs Northern Illinois-28.546.5L 14 - 16UN
Sat 9/14 Notre Dame at Purdue-11.545.5W 66 - 7OY
Sat 9/21 Notre Dame vs Miami (OH)-27.544.0W 28 - 3UN
Sat 9/28 Notre Dame vs Louisville-6.545.0W 31 - 24OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/12 Notre Dame vs Stanford-22.545.5W 49 - 7OY
Sat 10/19 Notre Dame vs Georgia Tech-14.049.5W 31 - 13UY
Sat 10/26 Notre Dame vs Navy-14.050.5W 51 - 14OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Notre Dame vs Florida State-25.544.5W 52 - 3OY
Sat 11/16 Notre Dame vs Virginia-20.551.0W 35 - 14UY
Sat 11/23 Notre Dame vs Army-14.544.5W 49 - 14OY
Sat 11/30 Notre Dame at USC-6.552.5W 49 - 35OY
Fri 12/20 Notre Dame vs Indiana-7.050.0W 27 - 17UY
Thu 1/2 Notre Dame vs Georgia-1.546.5W 23 - 10UY
Thu 1/9 Notre Dame vs Penn State+1.545.5W 27 - 24OY
Mon 1/20 Notre Dame vs Ohio State+8.545.5L 23 - 34ON

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 1, Good: 2, Avg: 1, Bad: 2, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 1, Poor: 0

Predictions for Notre Dame's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA#88 (.15)41% (84)22.742% (82)3 (89)11841% (76)2513.68 (85)#117 (.26)45% (113)28.848% (118)43% (90)4.15 (103)55.31.71.2
ND#8 (.35)49% (9)36.151% (9)3.37 (15)18648% (19)2474.87 (7)#6 (.04)35% (7)15.537% (21)33% (3)2.97 (11)48.21.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UVA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ND0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Offense1222.726.741%3.681.7213691182513.149%50%42%41%19%.15
ND Defense1315.51234.6%2.971.8 - - - - - 50%49%37%33%18%.04
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UVA Defense1228.832.245.2%4.151.2 - - - - - 51%48%48%43%15%.26
ND Offense1336.133.749.3%4.871.3214331862475.352%47%51%48%11%.35

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Virginia1231:242136%60%6.555.31.71.24.80.9128.1
Notre Dame1330:4820.945%59%5.448.21.31.84.81.9429.5
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Offense1249% (76)42% (82)37.8117.93.112 (116).11 (91)3 (89)70% (98)13% (123)0.89 (113)
ND Defense1350% (61)37% (21) - - - - .07 (29)2.85 (26)67% (34)11% (50)1.05 (92)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UVA Defense1251% (87)48% (118) - - - - .26 (124)3.36 (116)76% (92)9% (108)1.03 (84)
ND Offense1352% (45)51% (9)35.2186.35.328 (25).23 (27)3.37 (15)72% (83)7% (10)0.97 (86)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Offense1250% (62)41% (76)20.733250.87.612.119 (78)14 (107).29 (67)1.6 (66)32% (83)29% (79).21 (105)6% (79)1.8 (126)
ND Defense1349% (67)33% (3) - - - - - - 16 (9).04 (2)1.5 (40)36% (14)25% (14).23 (26)7% (27)1.9 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UVA Defense1248% (48)43% (90) - - - - - - 8 (100).32 (97)1.6 (54)28% (127)30% (62).33 (76)6% (57)2.1 (85)
ND Offense1347% (85)48% (19)17.527246.59.114.131 (14)9 (40).51 (8)1.8 (16)28% (10)37% (19).53 (14)4% (11)2.1 (60)

Virginia's Power Ratings
Virginia's Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Virginia's Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Virginia's Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
2024 Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Virginia's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Virginia's SP+ Ratings
Virginia's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Virginia's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Virginia's Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 773.18
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99

Power Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -2.00   Notre Dame: 26.78

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Virginia: -5.1   Notre Dame: 23.9




Notre Dame's Power Ratings
Notre Dame's Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Notre Dame's Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Notre Dame's Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
2024 Talent Rating: 960.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Notre Dame's 2024 Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Notre Dame's SP+ Ratings
Notre Dame's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Notre Dame's Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Notre Dame's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7

Average Talent
Average FBS Independents Talent Rating is 714
Average Power Five Talent: 806.09
Average FBS Talent: 638.99


Virginia Scoring
Offense: 22.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.7
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.2

Virginia's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Notre Dame 41
Virginia 11


Projected Total Points: 52
Notre Dame Scoring
Offense: 36.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.7
Defense: 15.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 12

Notre Dame's 2024 Record
Record: 14 - 2
Record vs Spread: 13 - 3 - 0
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 8 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/16Notre Dame35Virginia14Notre DameNotre Dame -20.5Notre Dame51.0Under
202111/13Virginia3Notre Dame28Notre DameNotre Dame -7.5Notre Dame62.5Under
201909/28Notre Dame35Virginia20Notre DameNotre Dame -10.5Notre Dame46.5Over
201509/12Virginia27Notre Dame34Notre DameNotre Dame -11.5Virginia47.0Over
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Notre Dame432 Overs
Virginia012 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams2 - 23 - 12 - 01 - 1
Road Teams2 - 21 - 31 - 10 - 2

(#69) Virginia Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -2.00 #69
Offense Rating: 18.13 #84
Defense Rating: 12.62 #96
Overall SP+ Rating: -5.1 #91
Offense SP+ Rating: 23.7 #95
Defense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #86
Talent Rating: 730.00 #50
Blue Chip Ratio: 2% #82
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Poor Offense Success Rate of 40%
Poor Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.47 PPO
Bad Run Success 43%
Awful Pass Success 37%
Bad OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Avg DL Grades, Poor Sacks/Turnovers
Bad Defense Success Rate of 43%
Poor in Scoring Position 4.04 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 44%
Bad Pass Def Success 42%
Poor Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position


Virginia Notes
(11/25) Pass D torched by SMU, Rgame awful, QB bad
(11/18) 5 TO's cost any shot @ ND, Pass Off awful
(11/13) QB Col OK, Rgame OK, Def great in Pitt upset
(10/31) QB? Colandrea or Muskett? Col goes downfield
(10/19) Rgame awful vs Clem, QBs good. Hung in a bit
(10/13) Off great, Def OK but gagged vs L'ville
(10/6) Run Def great, Off enough in big W (BC)
(9/23) 384 rush yds, 6.6 ypc in great W @ Coastal
(9/8) QB Colandrea great, entire Off. Good W @ Wake
(9/1) Good W over Richmond, QB Col. good, Rgame good
Virginia     Ratings Matchup     Notre Dame
Power #69
#5
Off #84
#24
Def #96
#2
Talent #50
#8
SP+ #91
#8
SP+ Off #95
#4
SP+ Def #86
#7

Rematch from Week 12
Notre Dame -20.5 (51.0)
Notre Dame won vs Virginia this year (35-14)

Previous Matchups
Notre Dame beat Virginia last year (35-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Notre Dame Stadium
Conditions: Cloudy
Temp: 51° - Wind: 15 mph


Team Information
Injuries: UVA | ND
Depth Chart: UVA | ND
Rosters: UVA | ND
(#5) Notre Dame Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 26.78 #5
Offense Rating: 24.52 #24
Defense Rating: -1.27 #2
Overall SP+ Rating: 23.9 #8
Offense SP+ Rating: 38.6 #4
Defense SP+ Rating: 14.1 #7
Talent Rating: 960.00 #8
Blue Chip Ratio: 54 #8
Expected Record: 14.0 - 2.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Great Offense Success Rate of 47%
Great Offensive Explosiveness
Great in Scoring Position 4.8 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Great Pass Success 47%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Avg Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 36%
Great in Scoring Position 2.75 PPO
Bad Run Def Success 43%
Great Pass Def Success 29%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position



  
Virginia's OC Des Kitchings
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Anthony Colandrea19832062%212513116.6
Malachi Fields2367%510017.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Brown8048816.175
Anthony Colandrea12827722.235
Noah Vaughn3612003.313
Jack Griese155503.712
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Malachi Fields55808514.745
Tyler Neville (Tr)37394210.639
Trell Harris (Tr)15221214.745
Chris Tyree (Tr)2413605.725

View Virginia's Full Roster
Virginia's DC John Rudzinski
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson646521
Trey McDonald573111
Jermarian Jackson551106
Corey Thomas Jr. (Tr)471002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamren Robinson646521
James Jackson455220
Anthony Britton383221
Billy Koudelka41100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kempton Shine (Tr)372007
Jermarian Jackson551106
Kendren Smith (Tr)392014

Notre Dame's OC Mike Denbrock
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Riley Leonard (Tr)26940367%28612187.1
Steven Angeli243667%268307.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jeremiyah Love1631124176.998
Riley Leonard (Tr)184906174.950
Jadarian Price12074676.270
Aneyas Williams3421926.458
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaden Greathouse42592414.154
Beaux Collins (Tr)41490312.053
Jordan Faison30356111.944
Jeremiyah Love2823728.532

View Notre Dame's Full Roster
Notre Dame's DC Al Golden
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Drayk Bowen784122
Adon Shuler593025
Jaiden Ausberry566121
Jaylen Sneed516320
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Donovan Hinish344441
Boubacar Traore126320
Junior Tuihalamaka326331
Jaylen Sneed516320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leonard Moore4820111
Christian Gray353009
Adon Shuler593025