Missouri at Massachusetts - 2024 Matchup Preview

(#14)Missouri Tigers at Massachusetts Minutemen

Saturday, October 12th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -27 (54.0) (-4000) Open: -28.5
Missouri 45 - Massachusetts: 3

Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 20 (25 - 26 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Wind: 21.7 MPH
MIZ 2nd straight Road Game
UMASS is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -29.5 (SP+ MIZ -36)
Projected Score: MIZ: 42 - UMASS: 12 (54)
MIZ Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
MIZ Travel: 1062 miles, 1 hrs behind

Minutemen (2 - 10) (6 - 5 - 1)
Coach Shane Montgomery (Int) (4 - 20)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (27 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2 - 10 (#128)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIZ Players
UMASS Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Missouri vs Murray State	-50.5	62.5	W 51 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Missouri vs Buffalo	-34.5	53.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Missouri vs Boston College	-14.5	51.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	Missouri vs Vanderbilt	-17.5	52.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Missouri at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/12	Missouri at Massachusetts	-27.0	54.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Missouri vs Auburn	-3.5	49.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Missouri at Alabama	+16.0	51.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+3.5	41.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Missouri at South Carolina	+10.5	42.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Missouri at Mississippi State	-9.5	58.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Missouri vs Arkansas	-3.5	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/30	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Massachusetts's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan	-2.5	49.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 9/7	Massachusetts at Toledo	+17.5	50.5	L 23 - 38	O	Y
Sat 9/14	Massachusetts at Buffalo	+3.5	45.5	L 3 - 34	U	N
Sat 9/21	Massachusetts vs Central Connecticut	-19.5	52.0	W 35 - 31	O	N
Sat 9/28	Massachusetts at Miami (OH)	+15.5	44.5	L 20 - 23	U	Y
Sat 10/5	Massachusetts at Northern Illinois	+14.0	41.0	L 20 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/12	Massachusetts vs Missouri	+27.0	54.0	L 3 - 45	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/26	Massachusetts vs Wagner	-23.0	48.0	W 35 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Massachusetts at Mississippi State	+19.5	59.5	L 20 - 45	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Massachusetts vs Liberty	+17.0	53.0	L 34 - 35	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Massachusetts at Georgia	+42.5	55.5	L 21 - 59	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Massachusetts vs UConn	+9.5	49.5	L 42 - 47	O	Y

Important Stats (2024)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)	28.9	47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)	20.4	42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)	22.5	43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)	35.5	51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)		47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)		42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2
UMASS	#69 (.19)	41% (94)		43% (78)	3.1 (50)	164	38% (110)	182	3.73 (89)	#114 (.26)	46% (116)		51% (128)	40% (71)	4.66 (129)	63.2	0.8	0.8

Overall Stats 2024

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	28.9	24.8	44%	3.91	0.7	19	361	159	202	4.3	53%	47%	47%	41%	11%	.19
UMASS Defense	12	35.5	32.2	46.3%	4.66	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	60%	39%	51%	40%	14%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	20.4	26.4	40.6%	3.38	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	42%	39%	18%	.11
UMASS Offense	12	22.5	27.2	40.8%	3.73	0.8	20	346	164	182	4.1	56%	44%	43%	38%	17%	.19

Additional Stats 2024

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	30:28	19.5	47%	53%	5.2	46	0.7	1.2	5	1.9	2	31
Massachusetts	12	32:19	19.7	38%	58%	7.3	63.2	0.8	0.8	4.1	1.3	1	25.4

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	53% (48)	47% (28)	37.1	158.7	4.3	25 (41)	.12 (73)	3.04 (67)	79% (26)	8% (31)	0.9 (100)
UMASS Defense	12	60% (133)	51% (128)	-	-	-	-	.25 (125)	3.51 (131)	87% (131)	8% (113)	0.95 (52)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	53% (91)	42% (57)	-	-	-	-	.01 (18)	2.75 (29)	73% (64)	12% (22)	0.92 (43)
UMASS Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (78)	40.2	164	4.1	18 (78)	.16 (53)	3.1 (50)	74% (62)	11% (95)	0.96 (68)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	47% (85)	41% (80)	17.8	28.5	202.2	7.1	11.4	12 (118)	5 (6)	.26 (66)	1.6 (69)	30% (49)	33% (52)	.39 (44)	4% (10)	2.1 (49)
UMASS Defense	12	39% (2)	40% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.29 (100)	1.7 (112)	28% (118)	28% (29)	.27 (51)	6% (72)	2.1 (89)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	47% (47)	39% (56)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (109)	.23 (65)	1.6 (70)	32% (61)	27% (20)	.2 (27)	6% (54)	2 (65)
UMASS Offense	12	44% (109)	38% (110)	15.6	27.3	181.8	6.7	11.7	14 (108)	6 (10)	.23 (81)	1.7 (22)	33% (87)	32% (57)	.34 (69)	6% (80)	2 (98)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 11.81 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 11.81 Massachusetts: -16.56

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 14.0 Massachusetts: -21.9

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -16.56 #115
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 19.80 #69
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 17.13 #122
2024 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #82
Massachusetts's 2024 Expected Record: 2.0 - 10.0
Massachusetts's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: -21.9 #129
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #110
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.3 #129

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 24.8
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.4

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 42
Massachusetts 12

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Massachusetts 29
Missouri 24

Total Points: 54

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 30
Massachusetts 24

Total Points: 54

Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.2
Defense: 35.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 32.2

Massachusetts's 2024 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/27	Missouri	42	Massachusetts	6	Missouri -44.5	Massachusetts	57.5	Under
2024	10/12	Massachusetts	3	Missouri	45	Missouri -27	Missouri	54.0	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Massachusetts	0	1	0 Overs
Missouri	2	1	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	1 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 0	1 - 0

(#26) MIZ at (#115) UMASS

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	UMASS
Power RatePwr	#26	#115
SP+SP+	#19	#129
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#128
OffenseOff	#26	#114
DefenseDef	#37	#117
Spec TeamsST	#12	#126
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#23	#82

Missouri Notes(11/30) 3-1 finish. Even w/ Ark, forced 2 TOs, good 3rd Def
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
(10/7) Killed by A&M. Cook, RB, Def all awful. Shocking
Missouri Injury Report

Massachusetts Notes(12/18) Hired HC Joe Harasymiak (Rutgers DC)
(11/18) HC Brown fired, OC Montgomery interim
(11/18) 1-5 stretch, fight w/ Liberty, Rgame good
(9/14) Very competitive 0-2. Outgained Toledo by 100 yds
(8/11) Play Clanga/Mizzu/Liberty/UGA weeks 7-13
(7/30) Lost a ton via portal, did add some. Depth issues.
(7/30) HC Brown improving each year, could they bowl?
(7/30) OL portal rebuild, top 2 RB's portaled out
(7/30) QB Phommachanh bad, WR mostly portal adds
(7/30) Run D nearly last in CFB LY, doesn't look much better
Massachusetts Injury Report

Missouri on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UMASS Def
Perf GradePerf	#26	#117
SuccessSuc	#54	#116
ExplosiveExp	#114	#41
PPAPPA	#70	#114
PowerPwr	#55	#122
SP+SP+	#23	#129
Pts POPPO	#68	#129
HavocHav	#9	#106

Missouri Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UMASS Def
Run GameRun	#53	#119
Run SuccessRSuc	#28	#128
Run ExplRExp	#100	#52
PPAExp	#73	#125
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#67	#131
Stuff RateStuff	#25	#131
TackleTak	-	#14

Missouri Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	UMASS Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#104
Pass SuccessPSuc	#80	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#69	#112
PPAExp	#66	#100
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#86
F7 HavocF7	#31	#113
DB HavocDB	#10	#72

Massachusetts on Offense

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#114	#37
SuccessSuc	#94	#54
ExplosiveExp	#72	#51
PPAPPA	#69	#32
PowerPwr	#69	#33
SP+SP+	#110	#20
Pts POPPO	#89	#28
HavocHav	#95	#32

Massachusetts Run Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#119	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#78	#57
Run ExplRExp	#68	#43
PPAExp	#53	#18
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#50	#29
Stuff RateStuff	#38	#46
TackleTak	-	#52

Massachusetts Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat	UMASS Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#115	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#56
Pass ExplPExl	#22	#70
PPAExp	#81	#65
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#57	#34
F7 HavocF7	#95	#22
DB HavocDB	#80	#54

Program Comparison
UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'25 Profile: Remains Poor G5

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'25 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 72° - Wind: 22 mph

Rematch from Week 7
Missouri 27.0 (54.0)
Missouri won at Massachusetts this year (45-3)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Massachusetts last year (45-3)

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	200	320	63%	2525	11	2	7.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)	49	82	60%	391	3	3	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel (Tr)	163	818	3	5.0	64
Marcus Carroll (Tr)	140	595	12	4.3	35
Brady Cook	87	223	5	2.6	31
Jamal Roberts	53	216	3	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Theo Wease	60	884	4	14.7	70
Luther Burden III	60	666	6	11.1	44
Marquis Johnson	25	352	1	14.1	49
Brett Norfleet	26	235	2	9.0	36

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Triston Newson	72	7	2	4	1
Marvin Burks Jr.	66	2	0	0	2
Daylan Carnell	51	5	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Walker	43	13	10	4	1
Zion Young (Tr)	41	6	3	5	3
Chris McClellan (Tr)	39	6	3	3	2
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)	12	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daylan Carnell	51	5	6
Joseph Charleston	44	2	4
Nicholas Deloach Jr.	23	1	4

UMASS's OC Shane Montgomery (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Taisun Phommachanh	132	234	56%	1590	8	6	6.8
AJ Hairston	40	73	55%	480	5	0	6.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen John	111	583	5	5.3	68
C.J. Hester (Tr)	119	529	4	4.4	24
Taisun Phommachanh	107	317	3	3.0	33
Brandon Campbell (Tr)	61	233	3	3.8	21

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jakobie Keeney-James (Tr)	51	870	6	17.1	75
Ty Harding	18	303	5	16.8	58
Jacquon Gibson	23	270	1	11.7	39
Sterling Galban (Tr)	25	210	0	8.4	21

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Keith Dudzinski (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Gerrell Johnson	74	3	1	2	2
Tyler Rudolph	61	2	0	0	3
Te'Rai Powell	52	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Louce Julien	43	7	4	1	1
Kofi Asare	30	6	3	1	1
Jalen Stewart	77	3	3	1	2
Christian Lebrun	22	2	2	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Lake Ellis (Tr)	29	3	5
Isaiah Rutherford	8	1	4
Tim Grant-Randall (Tr)	27	2	3