Missouri at Alabama - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 26th 2024 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -16 (51.5) (-700) Open: -8.5
Alabama 34 - Missouri: 0 (SEC)

Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (18 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA is playing their 5th straight game
MIZ is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Alabama -11.5 (SP+ ALA -11)
Projected Score: MIZ: 19 - ALA: 30 (49)
ALA Win prob: 88% | Cover: 54%
MIZ Travel: 477 miles

Crimson Tide (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9 - 4 (#28)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIZ Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Missouri vs Murray State	-50.5	62.5	W 51 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Missouri vs Buffalo	-34.5	53.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Missouri vs Boston College	-14.5	51.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	Missouri vs Vanderbilt	-17.5	52.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Missouri at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/12	Missouri at Massachusetts	-27.0	54.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Missouri vs Auburn	-3.5	49.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Missouri at Alabama	+16.0	51.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+3.5	41.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Missouri at South Carolina	+10.5	42.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Missouri at Mississippi State	-9.5	58.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Missouri vs Arkansas	-3.5	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/30	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Alabama's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Alabama vs Western Kentucky	-31.0	60.0	W 63 - 0	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Alabama vs South Florida	-33.5	65.5	W 42 - 16	U	N
Sat 9/14	Alabama at Wisconsin	-15.5	51.0	W 42 - 10	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/28	Alabama vs Georgia	+2.0	50.0	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/5	Alabama at Vanderbilt	-23.5	53.5	L 35 - 40	O	N
Sat 10/12	Alabama vs South Carolina	-21.0	50.0	W 27 - 25	O	N
Sat 10/19	Alabama at Tennessee	-3.5	57.5	L 17 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/26	Alabama vs Missouri	-16.0	51.5	W 34 - 0	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Alabama at LSU	-2.5	57.5	W 42 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/16	Alabama vs Mercer	-42.0	58.5	W 52 - 7	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Alabama at Oklahoma	-14.0	47.0	L 3 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/30	Alabama vs Auburn	-10.5	50.5	W 28 - 14	U	Y
Tue 12/31	Alabama vs Michigan	-16.5	45.5	L 13 - 19	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	30.2	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	18.9	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5
ALA	#20 (.29)	45% (39)	29.5	45% (43)	3.23 (45)	160	45% (34)	212	4.59 (17)	#26 (.11)	36% (12)	19.2	38% (28)	34% (6)	3.86 (73)	45.7	0.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	17.5	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29
ALA Defense	14	19.2	11.4	35.8%	3.86	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	38%	34%	19%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	17	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15
ALA Offense	14	29.5	39.3	45%	4.59	0.7	19	373	160	212	4.3	57%	43%	45%	45%	15%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6
Alabama	14	28:25	18.6	47%	83%	5.4	45.7	0.7	1.3	5.9	2.8	2	30.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)
ALA Defense	14	48% (40)	38% (28)	-	-	-	-	.15 (71)	3.13 (74)	67% (36)	12% (21)	1.12 (114)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)
ALA Offense	14	57% (18)	45% (43)	37	160.4	4.3	30 (21)	.21 (39)	3.23 (45)	81% (13)	11% (91)	0.98 (79)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)
ALA Defense	14	52% (98)	34% (6)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.11 (9)	1.5 (42)	35% (29)	26% (18)	.23 (25)	7% (37)	2.1 (71)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)
ALA Offense	14	43% (115)	45% (34)	13.7	21.6	212.1	9.8	15.5	23 (51)	6 (14)	.44 (20)	1.9 (8)	31% (50)	34% (39)	.55 (11)	4% (6)	2.6 (1)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 11.81 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 455.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 25% #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 11.81 Alabama: 24.435

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 14.0 Alabama: 25.0

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 24.435 #9
Alabama's Offense Rating: 23.39 #33
Alabama's Defense Rating: 4.21 #20
2024 Talent Rating: 690.00 #2
Blue Chip Ratio: 82 #1
Alabama's 2024 Expected Record: 9.0 - 4.0
Alabama's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 25.0 #4
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #6
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 14.6 #8

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 30
Missouri 19

Projected Total Points: 49

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2024 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Missouri	24	Alabama	27	Alabama -3.5	Missouri	50.5	Over
2024	10/26	Alabama	34	Missouri	0	Alabama -16	Alabama	51.5	Under
2020	09/26	Missouri	19	Alabama	38	Alabama -29.0	Missouri	56.0	Over
2018	10/13	Alabama	39	Missouri	10	Alabama -28	Alabama	72.5	Under
2014	12/06	Missouri	13	Alabama	42	Alabama -3	Alabama	0
2012	10/13	Missouri	10	Alabama	42

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	6	3	2 Overs
Missouri	0	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	2 - 4	4 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 2	1 - 4	1 - 2	0 - 2

(#26) MIZ at (#9) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#26	#9
SP+SP+	#19	#4
Perf GradeGrade	#24	#12
OffenseOff	#26	#24
DefenseDef	#37	#9
Spec TeamsST	#12	#58
TalentTal	#22	#2
Blue ChipsBC%	#23	#1

Missouri Notes(11/30) 3-1 finish. Even w/ Ark, forced 2 TOs, good 3rd Def
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
(10/7) Killed by A&M. Cook, RB, Def all awful. Shocking
Missouri Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Missouri on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#9
SuccessSuc	#26	#12
ExplosiveExp	#63	#87
PPAPPA	#21	#26
PowerPwr	#55	#20
SP+SP+	#23	#8
Pts POPPO	#22	#73
HavocHav	#24	#16

Missouri Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#53	#8
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#28
Run ExplRExp	#84	#114
PPAExp	#50	#71
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#74
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#108
TackleTak	-	#5

Missouri Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#10
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#6
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#42
PPAExp	#18	#9
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#29	#49
F7 HavocF7	#46	#21
DB HavocDB	#16	#37

Alabama on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#24	#37
SuccessSuc	#39	#19
ExplosiveExp	#23	#102
PPAPPA	#20	#47
PowerPwr	#33	#33
SP+SP+	#6	#20
Pts POPPO	#17	#81
HavocHav	#51	#19

Alabama Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#14	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#43	#13
Run ExplRExp	#79	#97
PPAExp	#39	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#74	-
OL YdsOLY	#45	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#37	#14
TackleTak	-	#52

Alabama Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	ALA Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#21	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#34	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#8	#58
PPAExp	#20	#46
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#66	#34
F7 HavocF7	#91	#11
DB HavocDB	#6	#64

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'24 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Alabama -16.0 (51.5)
Alabama won vs Missouri this year (34-0)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Missouri last year (27-24)
Alabama beat Missouri in 2024 (34-0)

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	200	320	63%	2525	11	2	7.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)	49	82	60%	391	3	3	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel (Tr)	163	818	3	5.0	64
Marcus Carroll (Tr)	140	595	12	4.3	35
Brady Cook	87	223	5	2.6	31
Jamal Roberts	53	216	3	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Theo Wease	60	884	4	14.7	70
Luther Burden III	60	666	6	11.1	44
Marquis Johnson	25	352	1	14.1	49
Brett Norfleet	26	235	2	9.0	36

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Triston Newson	72	7	2	4	1
Marvin Burks Jr.	66	2	0	0	2
Daylan Carnell	51	5	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Walker	43	13	10	4	1
Zion Young (Tr)	41	6	3	5	3
Chris McClellan (Tr)	39	6	3	3	2
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)	12	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daylan Carnell	51	5	6
Joseph Charleston	44	2	4
Nicholas Deloach Jr.	23	1	4

ALA's OC Nick Sheridan (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Milroe	205	319	64%	2844	16	11	8.9
Ty Simpson	14	25	56%	167	0	0	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Milroe	168	726	20	4.3	72
Jamarion Miller	145	668	7	4.6	56
Justice Haynes	79	448	7	5.7	85
Richard Young	27	146	2	5.4	62

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Williams	48	865	8	18.0	84
Germie Bernard (Tr)	50	794	2	15.9	47
C.J. Dippre	21	256	0	12.2	46
Josh Cuevas (Tr)	16	218	1	13.6	43

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Deontae Lawson	76	6	2	0	4
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Justin Jefferson	61	7	2	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jihaad Campbell	119	12	5	3	2
Quandarrius Robinson	23	7	4	5	0
Tim Keenan III	40	8	3	2	1
Tim Smith	35	4	2	5	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Malachi Moore	70	3	1	3	8
Domani Jackson (Tr)	51	2	0	1	7
DeVonta Smith	30	1	0	1	5