Auburn at Missouri - 2024 Matchup Preview
Auburn logo (#22)Auburn Tigers at Missouri Tigers(#23)Missouri logo
Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -3.5 (49.5) (-162)  Open: -9.5
Missouri 21 - Auburn: 17  (SEC)

 
Tigers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 28 - 21 (17 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 2)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 3) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 2) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 1)
AUB coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri -5   (SP+ MIZ -5)

Projected Score: AUB: 21 - MIZ: 26 (48)
MIZ Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AUB Travel: 582 miles
Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 29 - 20 (32 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
Wins: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 3)
Losses: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: 1) (Good: 4) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Auburn's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/31 Auburn vs Alabama A&M-48.558.5W 73 - 3OY
Sat 9/7 Auburn vs California-11.552.5L 14 - 21UN
Sat 9/14 Auburn vs New Mexico-25.558.5W 45 - 19OY
Sat 9/21 Auburn vs Arkansas-2.553.5L 14 - 24UN
Sat 9/28 Auburn vs Oklahoma-2.043.0L 21 - 27ON
Sat 10/5 Auburn at Georgia+21.050.0L 13 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19 Auburn at Missouri+3.549.5L 17 - 21UN
Sat 10/26 Auburn at Kentucky+2.043.5W 24 - 10UY
Sat 11/2 Auburn vs Vanderbilt-7.548.0L 7 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16 Auburn vs UL Monroe-24.546.0W 48 - 14OY
Sat 11/23 Auburn vs Texas A&M+2.547.0W 43 - 41OY
Sat 11/30 Auburn at Alabama+10.550.5L 14 - 28UN

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 5, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 2
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 2
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 3, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule
Missouri's 2024 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/29 Missouri vs Murray State-50.562.5W 51 - 0UY
Sat 9/7 Missouri vs Buffalo-34.553.5W 38 - 0UY
Sat 9/14 Missouri vs Boston College-14.551.5W 27 - 21UN
Sat 9/21 Missouri vs Vanderbilt-17.552.0W 30 - 27ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5 Missouri at Texas A&M+3.047.5L 10 - 41ON
Sat 10/12 Missouri at Massachusetts-27.054.0W 45 - 3UY
Sat 10/19 Missouri vs Auburn-3.549.5W 21 - 17UY
Sat 10/26 Missouri at Alabama+16.051.5L 0 - 34UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9 Missouri vs Oklahoma+3.541.5W 30 - 23OY
Sat 11/16 Missouri at South Carolina+10.542.5L 30 - 34OY
Sat 11/23 Missouri at Mississippi State-9.558.0W 39 - 20OY
Sat 11/30 Missouri vs Arkansas-3.551.5W 28 - 21UY
Mon 12/30 Missouri vs Iowa-1.041.0W 27 - 24OY

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 4, Avg 2, Bad 1, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 0, Poor 3
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 4, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 2, Bad: 0, Poor: 3
Losses: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Important Stats (2024)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)27.848% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)21.338% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)28.947% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)20.442% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
AUB#42 (.24)45% (40)48% (21)3.32 (23)16642% (67)2643.42 (110)#21 (.09)38% (20)38% (19)38% (34)3.35 (25)49.31.81.1
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)47% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)42% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2



Overall Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Offense1227.81744.9%3.421.821430166264548%52%48%42%17%.24
MIZ Defense1320.415.640.6%3.381.2 - - - - - 53%47%42%39%18%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
AUB Defense1221.322.537.8%3.351.1 - - - - - 53%47%38%38%15%.09
MIZ Offense1328.932.144%3.910.7193611592024.353%47%47%41%11%.19

Additional Stats 2024
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Auburn1227:1320.941%47%5.849.31.81.15.72.3127.9
Missouri1330:2819.547%53%5.2460.71.251.9231
Run Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Offense1248% (85)48% (21)33.4165.7513 (105).16 (55)3.32 (23)69% (95)10% (67)0.92 (89)
MIZ Defense1353% (91)42% (57) - - - - .01 (18)2.75 (29)73% (64)12% (22)0.92 (43)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
AUB Defense1253% (98)38% (19) - - - - -.02 (7)2.49 (6)80% (108)10% (81)0.93 (44)
MIZ Offense1353% (48)47% (28)37.1158.74.325 (41).12 (73)3.04 (67)79% (26)8% (31)0.9 (100)

Pass Game Stats (2024)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Offense1252% (47)42% (67)19.230.8263.98.613.827 (20)13 (103).31 (45)1.6 (39)31% (55)32% (69).41 (34)7% (113)1.9 (101)
MIZ Defense1347% (47)39% (56) - - - - - - 6 (109).23 (65)1.6 (70)32% (61)27% (20).2 (27)6% (54)2 (65)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
AUB Defense1247% (42)38% (34) - - - - - - 8 (93).22 (63)1.7 (104)35% (19)28% (34).21 (31)6% (77)2.1 (85)
MIZ Offense1347% (85)41% (80)17.828.5202.27.111.412 (118)5 (6).26 (66)1.6 (69)30% (49)33% (52).39 (44)4% (10)2.1 (49)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 10.97 #27
Auburn's Offense Rating: 23.04 #40
Auburn's Defense Rating: 5.80 #32
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Auburn's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #63
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 10.97   Missouri: 15.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 9.5   Missouri: 14.0




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Auburn Scoring
Offense: 27.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 21.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.5

Auburn's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 26
Auburn 21


Total Points: 48

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 28.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.1
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.6

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Missouri21Auburn17MissouriMissouri -3.5Missouri49.5Under
202209/24Auburn17Missouri14AuburnAuburn -7.5Missouri51.0Under
201709/23Missouri14Auburn51AuburnAuburn -18.5Auburn60.5Over
201312/07Auburn59Missouri42AuburnMissouri -2Auburn0
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri121 Overs
Auburn322 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 12 - 21 - 11 - 1
Road Teams1 - 32 - 21 - 11 - 1

(#27) Auburn Info
Power Rating: 10.97 #27
Offense Rating: 23.04 #40
Defense Rating: 5.80 #32
Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #63
Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
Good Offense Success Rate of 45%
Avg Offensive Explosiveness
Poor in Scoring Position 3.42 PPO
Great Run Success 48%
Bad Pass Success 42%
Avg OL Grades, Good OL Yds Per Rush
Great DL Grades, Bad Sacks/Turnovers
Great Defense Success Rate of 38%
Good in Scoring Position 3.35 PPO
Great Run Def Success 38%
Good Pass Def Success 38%
Bad Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Auburn has lost 3 straight
Auburn has lost 1 straight on the Road
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (2 - 2 - 0 vs Spread )

Auburn Highlights
Auburn has a top Offensive Line (#21)
Auburn has a really good defense (#16)
Auburn defense is really good in red zone (#63)
Auburn has a good run defense (#3)
Auburn Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#9)
Auburn Defensive Line is very good (#6)

Auburn Deficiencies
Auburn has a bad TO Margin (#11)
Auburn Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Auburn throws a Lot of Interceptions (#1)
Auburn offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#8)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatMIZAUB
OverallOver#18#21
OffenseOff#24#42
DefenseDef#27#15
Special TeamsST#11#46
PassingPass#61#55
RushingRush#37#52
Run BlockRBLK#5#34
Pass BlockPBLK#29#55
Route RunningWR Rt#54#37
TacklingTkl#47#39
Run DefenseR Def#31#10
Pass Rush DefPRush#31#27
Coverage DefCov#65#59

Rematch from Week 8
Missouri -3.5 (49.5)
Missouri won vs Auburn this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Auburn last year (21-17)
Auburn beat Missouri in 2022 (17-14)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: AUB | MIZ
Depth Chart: AUB | MIZ
Rosters: AUB | MIZ
(#26) Missouri Info
Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0

Team Profile
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
Avg Offense Success Rate of 44%
Bad Offensive Explosiveness
Bad in Scoring Position 3.91 PPO
Good Run Success 47%
Bad Pass Success 41%
Good OL Grades, Bad OL Yds Per Rush
Good DL Grades, Great Sacks/Turnovers
Avg Defense Success Rate of 41%
Good in Scoring Position 3.38 PPO
Avg Run Def Success 42%
Avg Pass Def Success 39%
Good Pressure/Havoc/Forcing TOs
Avg Field Position

Missouri has won 1 straight
Missouri has won 4 straight at Home
Record at home: 7 - 0 (5 - 2 - 0 vs Spread)

Missouri Notes
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays

Missouri Highlights
Missouri is Undefeated at Home

Missouri offense is good on 3rd downs
Missouri does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#27)

Missouri defense is really good in red zone (#84)
Missouri Defensive Line is very good (#34)
Missouri Front 7 is disruptive (#4)
Missouri has a great TO Margin (#28)

Missouri Deficiencies
Missouri offense is not Explosive (#63)


  
Auburn's OC Derrick Nix
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Payton Thorne19931763%27132198.6
Hank Brown274363%403639.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jarquez Hunter187120186.450
Payton Thorne11228322.531
Damari Alston5227635.336
Jeremiah Cobb2914204.927
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Keandre Lambert50981819.667
Cam Coleman37598816.263
Malcolm Simmons40451311.357
Rivaldo Fairweather31372212.043

View Auburn's Full Roster
Auburn's DC D. J. Durkin
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)819312
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)652105
Jalen McLeod5614821
Keldric Faulk4511771
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jalen McLeod5614821
Keldric Faulk4511771
Demarcus Riddick275321
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)819312
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kayin Lee320007
Jay Crawford150007
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)652105

Missouri's OC Kirby Moore
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brady Cook20032063%25251127.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)498260%391334.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nate Noel (Tr)16381835.064
Marcus Carroll (Tr)140595124.335
Brady Cook8722352.631
Jamal Roberts5321634.114
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Theo Wease60884414.770
Luther Burden III60666611.144
Marquis Johnson25352114.149
Brett Norfleet2623529.036

View Missouri's Full Roster
Missouri's DC Corey Batoon
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Corey Flagg Jr.815110
Triston Newson727241
Marvin Burks Jr.662002
Daylan Carnell515006
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Johnny Walker43131041
Zion Young (Tr)416353
Chris McClellan (Tr)396332
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)123220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daylan Carnell515006
Joseph Charleston442004
Nicholas Deloach Jr.231004