Auburn at Missouri - 2024 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 19th 2024 (12:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -3.5 (49.5) (-162) Open: -9.5
Missouri 21 - Auburn: 17 (SEC)

Tigers (5 - 7) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Hugh Freeze (6 - 7)
Avg Score : 27 - 21 (27 - 27 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#83)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AUB coming off BYE
Our Line: Missouri -5 (SP+ MIZ -5)
Projected Score: AUB: 23 - MIZ: 28 (51)
MIZ Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
AUB Travel: 582 miles

Tigers (10 - 3) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (28 - 21)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (40 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 10 - 3 (#17)
'24 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AUB Players
MIZ Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Auburn's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Auburn vs Alabama A&M	-48.5	58.5	W 73 - 3	O	Y
Sat 9/7	Auburn vs California	-11.5	52.5	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/14	Auburn vs New Mexico	-25.5	58.5	W 45 - 19	O	Y
Sat 9/21	Auburn vs Arkansas	-2.5	53.5	L 14 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/28	Auburn vs Oklahoma	-2.0	43.0	L 21 - 27	O	N
Sat 10/5	Auburn at Georgia	+21.0	50.0	L 13 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/19	Auburn at Missouri	+3.5	49.5	L 17 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/26	Auburn at Kentucky	+2.0	43.5	W 24 - 10	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Auburn vs Vanderbilt	-7.5	48.0	L 7 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/16	Auburn vs UL Monroe	-24.5	46.0	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Auburn vs Texas A&M	+2.5	47.0	W 43 - 41	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Auburn at Alabama	+10.5	50.5	L 14 - 28	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Auburn's Schedule

Missouri's 2024 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/29	Missouri vs Murray State	-50.5	62.5	W 51 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/7	Missouri vs Buffalo	-34.5	53.5	W 38 - 0	U	Y
Sat 9/14	Missouri vs Boston College	-14.5	51.5	W 27 - 21	U	N
Sat 9/21	Missouri vs Vanderbilt	-17.5	52.0	W 30 - 27	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Missouri at Texas A&M	+3.0	47.5	L 10 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/12	Missouri at Massachusetts	-27.0	54.0	W 45 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/19	Missouri vs Auburn	-3.5	49.5	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/26	Missouri at Alabama	+16.0	51.5	L 0 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/9	Missouri vs Oklahoma	+3.5	41.5	W 30 - 23	O	Y
Sat 11/16	Missouri at South Carolina	+10.5	42.5	L 30 - 34	O	Y
Sat 11/23	Missouri at Mississippi State	-9.5	58.0	W 39 - 20	O	Y
Sat 11/30	Missouri vs Arkansas	-3.5	51.5	W 28 - 21	U	Y
Mon 12/30	Missouri vs Iowa	-1.0	41.0	W 27 - 24	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB	#93 (.14)	41% (80)	26.8	45% (44)	3.01 (86)	189	37% (110)	162	3.99 (58)	#48 (.15)	40% (42)	20.7	43% (72)	37% (20)	3.65 (56)	43.8	1.5	1.4
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	30.2	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	18.9	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AUB		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MIZ		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Offense	13	26.8	27.2	41.3%	3.99	1.5	19	351	189	162	4.8	56%	43%	45%	37%	16%	.14
MIZ Defense	13	18.9	20.6	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AUB Defense	13	20.7	26.6	40%	3.65	1.4	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	43%	37%	17%	.15
MIZ Offense	13	30.2	39.5	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Auburn	13	29:03	18.5	33%	50%	5.5	43.8	1.5	1.4	5.5	2.1	2	29.4
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6

Run Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Offense	13	56% (20)	45% (44)	39.5	189	4.8	22 (51)	.19 (47)	3.01 (86)	74% (69)	11% (85)	1.02 (58)
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AUB Defense	13	52% (103)	43% (72)	-	-	-	-	.13 (63)	2.95 (40)	86% (126)	10% (57)	0.94 (39)
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2024)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Offense	13	43% (114)	37% (110)	14.5	24.4	162.2	6.7	11.2	18 (81)	13 (97)	.12 (120)	1.6 (74)	32% (76)	25% (117)	.14 (121)	5% (41)	1.9 (112)
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AUB Defense	13	47% (30)	37% (20)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.2 (33)	1.8 (125)	35% (22)	31% (79)	.29 (57)	7% (49)	2.2 (97)
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)

Auburn's Power Ratings
Auburn's Power Rating: 10.97 #27
Auburn's Offense Rating: 23.04 #40
Auburn's Defense Rating: 5.80 #32
2024 Talent Rating: 440.00 #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 40% #18
Auburn's 2024 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Auburn's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 9.5 #33
Auburn's Offense SP+ Rating: 27.9 #63
Auburn's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.8 #17

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Power Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 10.97 Missouri: 15.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Auburn: 9.5 Missouri: 14.0

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 15.405 #26
Missouri's Offense Rating: 21.28 #55
Missouri's Defense Rating: 6.00 #33
2024 Talent Rating: 455.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 25 #23
Missouri's 2024 Expected Record: 10.0 - 3.0
Missouri's 2024 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.0 #19
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.7 #23
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.7 #20

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 511.63
Average Power Five Talent: 432.03
Average FBS Talent: 332.4

Auburn Scoring
Offense: 26.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 27.2
Defense: 20.7 PPG
Defense on Road: 26.6

Auburn's 2024 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 28
Auburn 23

Projected Total Points: 51

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense at Home: 20.6

Missouri's 2024 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/18	Auburn	17	Missouri	23	Missouri -1.5	Missouri	43.5	Under
2024	10/19	Missouri	21	Auburn	17	Missouri -3.5	Missouri	49.5	Under
2022	09/24	Auburn	17	Missouri	14	Auburn -7.5	Missouri	51.0	Under
2017	09/23	Missouri	14	Auburn	51	Auburn -18.5	Auburn	60.5	Over
2013	12/07	Auburn	59	Missouri	42	Missouri -2	Auburn	0

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Missouri	2	3	1 Overs
Auburn	3	2	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 2	2 - 3	1 - 1	1 - 2
Road Teams	2 - 3	3 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 1

(#27) AUB at (#26) MIZ

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AUB	MIZ
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#27	#26
SP+SP+	#33	#19
Perf GradeGrade	#28	#24
OffenseOff	#48	#26
DefenseDef	#20	#37
Spec TeamsST	#55	#12
TalentTal	#23	#22
Blue ChipsBC%	#18	#23

Auburn Injury Report

Missouri Notes(11/30) 3-1 finish. Even w/ Ark, forced 2 TOs, good 3rd Def
(11/24) Off OK vs Miss St, Def held 2-10 on 3rd downs
(11/18) Cook nearly beat SC, Run Def great, Pass D WTF?
(11/13) Off bad, Def good, great Pyne drive beat OU
(11/12) C Tollison (top in CFB) out for season
(10/27) Off is broken, all stats < '23. Cook/Rgame bad
(10/23) QB Brady Cook doubtful for Bama game (ankle)
(10/23) RB Noel doubtful for Bama game
(10/22) Def stop rate is 72% (#20) into Bama game
(10/19) Rallied (Aub), Off was bad but clutch. Def held
(10/18) 2ndary getting cooked, repeatedly & big plays
(10/7) Killed by A&M. Cook, RB, Def all awful. Shocking
Missouri Injury Report

Auburn on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	MIZ Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#48	#37
SuccessSuc	#80	#19
ExplosiveExp	#100	#102
PPAPPA	#93	#47
PowerPwr	#40	#33
SP+SP+	#63	#20
Pts POPPO	#58	#81
HavocHav	#70	#19

Auburn Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#73	#39
Run SuccessRSuc	#44	#13
Run ExplRExp	#58	#97
PPAExp	#47	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#43	-
OL YdsOLY	#86	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#94	#14
TackleTak	-	#52

Auburn Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 52%, Run: 48%
CategoryCat	AUB Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#70	#79
Pass SuccessPSuc	#110	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#74	#58
PPAExp	#120	#46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#61	#34
F7 HavocF7	#85	#11
DB HavocDB	#41	#64

Missouri on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	AUB Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#26	#20
SuccessSuc	#26	#42
ExplosiveExp	#63	#84
PPAPPA	#21	#48
PowerPwr	#55	#32
SP+SP+	#23	#17
Pts POPPO	#22	#56
HavocHav	#24	#51

Missouri Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	AUB Def
Run GameRun	#53	#11
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#72
Run ExplRExp	#84	#39
PPAExp	#50	#63
Run BlockR Blk	#6	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#40
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#51
TackleTak	-	#43

Missouri Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 53%
CategoryCat	MIZ Off	AUB Def
Pass GamePass	#77	#73
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#20
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#125
PPAExp	#18	#33
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#29
F7 HavocF7	#46	#57
DB HavocDB	#16	#49

Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'24 Profile: Up to Top 25 Contenders

AUB 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'24 Profile: Remains Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Missouri -3.5 (49.5)
Missouri won vs Auburn this year (21-17)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Auburn last year (23-17)
Missouri beat Auburn in 2024 (21-17)

AUB's OC Derrick Nix (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Payton Thorne	199	317	63%	2713	21	9	8.6
Hank Brown	27	43	63%	403	6	3	9.4

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jarquez Hunter	187	1201	8	6.4	50
Payton Thorne	112	283	2	2.5	31
Damari Alston	52	276	3	5.3	36
Jeremiah Cobb	29	142	0	4.9	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keandre Lambert	50	981	8	19.6	67
Cam Coleman	37	598	8	16.2	63
Malcolm Simmons	40	451	3	11.3	57
Rivaldo Fairweather	31	372	2	12.0	43

View Auburn's Full Roster

AUB's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	0	5
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jalen McLeod	56	14	8	2	1
Keldric Faulk	45	11	7	7	1
Demarcus Riddick	27	5	3	2	1
Dorian Mausi Jr. (Tr)	81	9	3	1	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kayin Lee	32	0	0	7
Jay Crawford	15	0	0	7
Jerrin Thompson (Tr)	65	2	1	5

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	200	320	63%	2525	11	2	7.9
Drew Pyne (Tr)	49	82	60%	391	3	3	4.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nate Noel (Tr)	163	818	3	5.0	64
Marcus Carroll (Tr)	140	595	12	4.3	35
Brady Cook	87	223	5	2.6	31
Jamal Roberts	53	216	3	4.1	14

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Theo Wease	60	884	4	14.7	70
Luther Burden III	60	666	6	11.1	44
Marquis Johnson	25	352	1	14.1	49
Brett Norfleet	26	235	2	9.0	36

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Corey Batoon (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Corey Flagg Jr.	81	5	1	1	0
Triston Newson	72	7	2	4	1
Marvin Burks Jr.	66	2	0	0	2
Daylan Carnell	51	5	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Johnny Walker	43	13	10	4	1
Zion Young (Tr)	41	6	3	5	3
Chris McClellan (Tr)	39	6	3	3	2
Khalil Jacobs (Tr)	12	3	2	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Daylan Carnell	51	5	6
Joseph Charleston	44	2	4
Nicholas Deloach Jr.	23	1	4