Central Michigan at South Alabama - 2023 Matchup Preview

Central Michigan Chippewas at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, September 23rd 2023 (5:00 PM EDT)
South Alabama -16.5 (46.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Central Michigan 34 - South Alabama: 30

Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 24 (19 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

CMU 2nd straight Road Game
USA is playing their 4th straight game
CMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: South Alabama -21.5 (SP+ USA -22)
Projected Score: CMU: 14 - USA: 35 (49)
USA Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
CMU Travel: 303 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Jaguars (7 - 6) (5 - 8 - 0)
Coach Kane Wommack (17 - 11)
Avg Score : 27 - 30 (28 - 29 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.3 - 3.7 (#21)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CMU Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Central Michigan at Michigan State	+14.0	45.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	Central Michigan vs New Hampshire	-7.0	48.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Central Michigan at Notre Dame	+34.5	51.5	L 17 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Central Michigan at South Alabama	+16.5	46.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	45.0	W 26 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/7	Central Michigan at Buffalo	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Central Michigan vs Akron	-10.5	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/21	Central Michigan at Ball State	-5.0	42.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+3.0	48.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/15	Central Michigan at Ohio	+11.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/24	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 32	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

South Alabama's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Alabama at Tulane	+6.0	51.0	L 17 - 37	O	N
Sat 9/9	South Alabama vs SE Louisiana	-24.0	59.5	W 35 - 17	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Alabama at Oklahoma State	+7.0	49.5	W 33 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/23	South Alabama vs Central Michigan	-16.5	46.5	L 30 - 34	O	N
Sat 9/30	South Alabama at James Madison	+1.0	48.5	L 23 - 31	O	N
Sat 10/7	South Alabama at UL Monroe	-11.0	51.5	W 55 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/17	South Alabama vs Southern Miss	-18.5	51.0	W 55 - 3	O	Y
Sat 10/28	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-11.5	55.0	L 20 - 33	U	N
Thu 11/2	South Alabama at Troy	+5.5	44.5	L 10 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/11	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	-14.5	54.5	W 21 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/18	South Alabama vs Marshall	-10.5	44.5	W 28 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/25	South Alabama at Texas State	-6.5	57.0	L 44 - 52	O	N
Sat 12/23	South Alabama at Eastern Michigan	-18.0	43.0	W 59 - 10	O	Y

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	.1	38%	22.5	40%	3.03	159	38%	208	3.29	.17	41%	23.5	41%	42%	3.58	62.8	2.3	1
USA	.22	42%	26.5	40%	3.06	155	45%	269	4.14	.11	38%	30.4	40%	37%	3.16	70.4	1.2	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Offense	12	22.5	19.1	38.5%	3.29	2.3	20	367	159	208	4.3	47%	51%	40%	38%	23%	.1
USA Defense	13	30.4	28.8	37.7%	3.16	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	41%	58%	40%	37%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Defense	12	23.5	28	41.2%	3.58	1	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	41%	42%	22%	.17
USA Offense	13	26.5	27.8	42%	4.14	1.2	22	424	155	269	4	51%	48%	40%	45%	13%	.22

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Central Michigan	12	28:46	19.9	35%	55%	6.9	62.8	2.3	1	8.3	2.5	0	28.7
South Alabama	13	32:42	22.2	43%	59%	7.7	70.4	1.2	1.8	6.2	2.2	3	29.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Offense	12	47%	40%	37	159.2	4.3	22	.05	3.03	62%	13%	1.09
USA Defense	13	41%	40%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.98	78%	11%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Defense	12	54%	41%	-	-	-	-	.11	2.96	74%	15%	1.06
USA Offense	13	51%	40%	38.8	155.3	4	19	.16	3.06	78%	7%	1.02

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Offense	12	51%	38%	18.3	32.4	208.1	6.4	11.4	16	10	.19	1.6	36%	33%	.33	10%	2.1
USA Defense	13	58%	37%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.18	1.6	36%	22%	.14	6%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Defense	12	46%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	.28	1.6	34%	30%	.27	8%	2.1
USA Offense	13	48%	45%	22.4	34.4	268.9	7.8	12	28	12	.33	1.6	31%	30%	.3	5%	2

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -11.77 #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
2023 Talent Rating: 332.64 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 378.85
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -11.77 South Alabama: 5.975

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -19.2 South Alabama: 3.0

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: 5.975 #41
South Alabama's Offense Rating: 19.51 #39
South Alabama's Defense Rating: 6.19 #32
2023 Talent Rating: 545.68 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
South Alabama's 2023 Expected Record: 9.30 - 3.70
South Alabama's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 3.0 #55
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.7 #50
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #68

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 437.55
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 22.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.1
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
South Alabama 35
Central Michigan 14

Projected Total Points: 49

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 26.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.8
Defense: 30.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.8

South Alabama's 2023 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 5 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 4 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	South Alabama	30	Central Michigan	34	South Alabama -16.5	Central Michigan	46.5	Over
2022	09/10	Central Michigan	24	South Alabama	38	Central Michigan -6	South Alabama	57.5	Over

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	1	1	2 Overs
Central Michigan	1	1	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#124) CMU at (#41) USA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CMU	USA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#124	#41
SP+SP+	#126	#55
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#34
OffenseOff	#113	#39
DefenseDef	#101	#30
Spec TeamsST	#34	#86
TalentTal	#126	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Central Michigan Injury Report

South Alabama Injury Report

Central Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	CMU Off	USA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#113	#30
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#74	#32
SP+SP+	#119	#68
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Central Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	#98	#25
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#108

Central Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#65
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#69
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	CMU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#39	#101
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#39	#125
SP+SP+	#50	#109
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#5	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#58	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#53

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#83	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#110	#92
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'23 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hancock Whitney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
South Alabama -16.5 (46.5)
Central Michigan won at South Alabama this year (34-30)

Previous Matchups
Central Michigan beat South Alabama in 2023 (34-30)

CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer	163	287	57%	1881	12	8	6.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.	19	37	51%	286	3	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	144	737	5	5.1	46
Myles Bailey	102	476	3	4.7	48
Jase Bauer	121	366	10	3.0	29
Bert Emanuel Jr.	50	220	2	4.4	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyson Davis	29	444	4	15.3	67
Jesse Prewitt III	31	438	4	14.1	70
Chris Parker	23	409	3	17.8	62
Marion Lukes	29	300	0	10.3	44

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Jones	61	3	0	0	2
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Dakota Cochran	51	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacques Bristol	41	8	4	5	2
Maurice White	18	5	4	5	0
Quindario Lee	26	7	3	4	0
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Daraun McKinney	39	3	0	1	4

USA's OC Major Applewhite (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carter Bradley	221	326	68%	2660	19	7	8.2
Giovanni Lopez	41	61	67%	475	4	2	7.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
La'Damian Webb	186	1007	16	5.4	65
Kentrel Bullock (Tr)	83	448	4	5.4	34
Braylon McReynolds	46	232	0	5.0	35
Marco Lee	53	220	2	4.2	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Caullin Lacy	91	1316	7	14.5	84
Jamaal Pritchett	57	883	8	15.5	51
Damarcus Thomas	27	235	5	8.7	33
Javon Ivory (Tr)	20	234	1	11.7	39

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC Corey Batoon (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
James Miller	67	4	0	1	0
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Quentin Wilfawn	83	16	6	5	1
Trey Kiser	67	10	4	1	2
Jamie Sheriff	45	9	3	12	0
Brock Higdon	18	4	3	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Rickey Fletcher	38	1	0	1	11
Jaden Voisin	66	2	0	0	6
Yamarus Banks	45	6	1	3	3