Central Michigan at Ball State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (3:30 PM EDT)
Central Michigan -5 (42.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Ball State 24 - Central Michigan: 17 (Mid-American)

Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 31 (19 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

BALL 2nd straight Home Game
BALL is playing their 8th straight game
CMU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Ball State -6.5 (SP+ BALL -4)
Projected Score: CMU: 19 - BALL: 25 (44)
CMU Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
CMU Travel: 235 miles

Cardinals (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Mike Neu (34 - 50)
Avg Score : 18 - 24 (21 - 16 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.4 - 6.6 (#89)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CMU Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Central Michigan at Michigan State	+14.0	45.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	Central Michigan vs New Hampshire	-7.0	48.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Central Michigan at Notre Dame	+34.5	51.5	L 17 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Central Michigan at South Alabama	+16.5	46.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	45.0	W 26 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/7	Central Michigan at Buffalo	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Central Michigan vs Akron	-10.5	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/21	Central Michigan at Ball State	-5.0	42.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+3.0	48.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/15	Central Michigan at Ohio	+11.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/24	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 32	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Ball State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Ball State at Kentucky	+25.0	49.0	L 14 - 44	O	N
Sat 9/9	Ball State at Georgia	+42.0	52.5	L 3 - 45	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Ball State vs Indiana State	-26.0	45.0	W 45 - 7	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Ball State vs Georgia Southern	+6.0	60.0	L 3 - 40	U	N
Sat 9/30	Ball State at Western Michigan	+1.5	50.0	L 24 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/7	Ball State at Eastern Michigan	+2.5	43.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/14	Ball State vs Toledo	+17.5	48.5	L 6 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+5.0	42.0	W 24 - 17	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Wed 11/1	Ball State at Bowling Green	+4.5	39.5	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Ball State at Northern Illinois	+9.5	43.5	W 20 - 17	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Ball State vs Kent State	-10.5	41.5	W 34 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/25	Ball State vs Miami (OH)	+3.5	34.5	L 15 - 17	U	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	#83 (.16)	40% (101)	23.2	43% (72)	3.29 (35)	160	36% (111)	185	4.2 (39)	#128 (.32)	45% (115)	31.1	48% (116)	44% (95)	4.43 (121)	58.1	1.3	0.7
BALL	#97 (.14)	40% (95)	18.3	45% (50)	3.35 (22)	171	33% (127)	137	3.31 (105)	#70 (.18)	42% (66)	24.4	43% (65)	42% (70)	3.81 (70)	45.2	1.3	0.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	#96 (.15)	39% (115)		42% (88)	3.2 (41)	169	34% (124)	163	3.82 (80)	#96 (.21)	40% (44)		41% (48)	39% (50)	3.6 (45)	60.9	2	0.4
BALL	#98 (.14)	42% (78)		44% (70)	3.06 (61)	103	41% (72)	245	3.94 (65)	#128 (.32)	46% (118)		46% (103)	47% (121)	4.81 (133)	45.3	1.2	1.3

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Offense	12	23.2	19.4	39.5%	4.2	1.3	19	344	160	185	4.2	56%	43%	43%	36%	14%	.16
BALL Defense	12	24.4	16.2	41.8%	3.81	0.9	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	43%	42%	17%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Defense	12	31.1	33.6	45.5%	4.43	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	44%	14%	.32
BALL Offense	12	18.3	21.2	39.8%	3.31	1.3	18	308	171	137	4.4	58%	41%	45%	33%	17%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Central Michigan	12	30:13	18.9	34%	70%	6.7	58.1	1.3	0.7	4.6	1.5	1	29.1
Ball State	12	32:44	18.1	38%	56%	5.2	45.2	1.3	0.9	5.7	2.1	0	28.8

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (72)	38	159.5	4.2	21 (54)	.22 (30)	3.29 (35)	77% (36)	10% (68)	1.09 (23)
BALL Defense	12	48% (44)	43% (65)	-	-	-	-	.11 (45)	3.08 (62)	79% (102)	11% (35)	0.89 (23)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Defense	12	51% (86)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.25 (118)	3.4 (119)	77% (97)	8% (121)	1.04 (91)
BALL Offense	12	58% (14)	45% (50)	39.3	171.4	4.4	15 (100)	.21 (38)	3.35 (22)	83% (8)	12% (112)	0.99 (70)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	36% (111)	15.3	27.1	184.7	6.8	12.1	15 (96)	11 (68)	.16 (108)	1.7 (31)	36% (125)	28% (86)	.36 (62)	4% (9)	2.3 (14)
BALL Defense	12	51% (93)	42% (70)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.27 (70)	1.5 (29)	32% (61)	28% (30)	.21 (20)	5% (97)	2 (39)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Defense	12	48% (50)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.41 (122)	1.7 (96)	31% (90)	29% (52)	.35 (87)	5% (98)	2 (52)
BALL Offense	12	41% (119)	33% (127)	15.1	25.3	136.7	5.4	9.1	9 (126)	8 (30)	.05 (128)	1.4 (130)	33% (92)	24% (123)	.18 (110)	5% (25)	2 (104)

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -11.77 #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -11.77 Ball State: -9.17

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -19.2 Ball State: -14.9

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -9.17 #112
Ball State's Offense Rating: 13.25 #98
Ball State's Defense Rating: 11.12 #87
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Ball State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.40 - 6.60
Ball State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -14.9 #116
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.6 #131
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.3 #61

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 31.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.6

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Ball State 25
Central Michigan 19

Total Points: 44

Based on Last 4 Games
Central Michigan 26
Ball State 18

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Ball State 26
Central Michigan 21

Total Points: 47

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 18.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 21.2
Defense: 24.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 16.2

Ball State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 4 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 1 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/21	Central Michigan	37	Ball State	34	Central Michigan -6.5	Ball State	51.0	Over
2023	10/21	Ball State	24	Central Michigan	17	Central Michigan -5	Ball State	42.0	Under
2022	10/08	Central Michigan	16	Ball State	17	Central Michigan -7.5	Ball State	63.0	Under
2021	11/17	Ball State	17	Central Michigan	37	Central Michigan -2.5	Central Michigan	57.0	Under
2020	12/05	Central Michigan	20	Ball State	45	Ball State -2.5	Ball State	62.5	Over
2019	11/16	Ball State	44	Central Michigan	45	Ball State -2	Central Michigan	59.5	Over
2018	10/13	Central Michigan	23	Ball State	24	Central Michigan -2.5	Ball State	54.5	Under
2017	10/21	Ball State	9	Central Michigan	56	Central Michigan -3	Central Michigan	48.0	Over
2016	10/08	Central Michigan	24	Ball State	21	Central Michigan -13.5	Ball State	56.0	Under
2015	10/24	Ball State	21	Central Michigan	23	Central Michigan -6	Ball State	56.0	Under
2014	10/18	Central Michigan	29	Ball State	32	Central Michigan -6.5	Ball State	0
2013	11/06	Ball State	44	Central Michigan	24	Ball State -21.5	Central Michigan	0
2012	10/20	Central Michigan	30	Ball State	41
2011	10/22	Ball State	31	Central Michigan	27
2010	10/02	Central Michigan	17	Ball State	31
2009	11/18	Ball State	3	Central Michigan	35
2008	11/19	Central Michigan	24	Ball State	31
2007	10/06	Ball State	38	Central Michigan	58
2006	10/14	Central Michigan	18	Ball State	7
2005	11/19	Ball State	24	Central Michigan	31
2004	11/20	Central Michigan	41	Ball State	40
2003	09/20	Ball State	27	Central Michigan	14
2002	11/16	Central Michigan	21	Ball State	38
2001	11/03	Ball State	38	Central Michigan	34
2000	10/27	Central Michigan	34	Ball State	38

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	14	8	4 Overs
Central Michigan	11	4	6 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 16	2 - 10	0 - 7	2 - 3
Road Teams	16 - 9	10 - 2	3 - 2	7 - 0

(#124) CMU at (#112) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	CMU	BALL
Power RatePwr	#124	#112
SP+SP+	#126	#116
Perf GradeGrade	#111	#117
OffenseOff	#113	#101
DefenseDef	#101	#119
Spec TeamsST	#34	#132
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Central Michigan Injury Report

Ball State Injury Report

Central Michigan on Offense


CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
Perf GradePerf	#113	#119
SuccessSuc	#101	#66
ExplosiveExp	#42	#16
PPAPPA	#83	#70
PowerPwr	#74	#87
SP+SP+	#119	#61
Pts POPPO	#39	#70
HavocHav	#39	#60

Central Michigan Run Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	#98	#98
Run SuccessRSuc	#72	#65
Run ExplRExp	#23	#23
PPAExp	#30	#45
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	#35	#62
Stuff RateStuff	#30	#99
TackleTak	-	#106

Central Michigan Pass Game


CategoryCat	CMU Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	#90	#117
Pass SuccessPSuc	#111	#70
Pass ExplPExl	#31	#29
PPAExp	#108	#70
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#116	#103
F7 HavocF7	#68	#35
DB HavocDB	#9	#97

Ball State on Offense


CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
Perf GradePerf	#101	#101
SuccessSuc	#95	#115
ExplosiveExp	#126	#93
PPAPPA	#97	#128
PowerPwr	#98	#125
SP+SP+	#131	#109
Pts POPPO	#105	#121
HavocHav	#85	#119

Ball State Run Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
Run GameRun	#52	#93
Run SuccessRSuc	#50	#116
Run ExplRExp	#70	#91
PPAExp	#38	#118
Run BlockR Blk	#68	-
OL YdsOLY	#22	#119
Stuff RateStuff	#3	#117
TackleTak	-	#53

Ball State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BALL Off	CMU Def
Pass GamePass	#119	#98
Pass SuccessPSuc	#127	#95
Pass ExplPExl	#130	#96
PPAExp	#128	#122
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#23	#92
F7 HavocF7	#112	#121
DB HavocDB	#25	#98

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

CMU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 66° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 8
Central Michigan 5.0 (42.0)
Ball State won vs Central Michigan this year (24-17)

Previous Matchups
Central Michigan beat Ball State last year (37-34)
Ball State beat Central Michigan in 2023 (24-17)
Ball State beat Central Michigan in 2022 (17-16)

CMU's OC Paul Petrino (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer	163	287	57%	1881	12	8	6.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.	19	37	51%	286	3	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	144	737	5	5.1	46
Myles Bailey	102	476	3	4.7	48
Jase Bauer	121	366	10	3.0	29
Bert Emanuel Jr.	50	220	2	4.4	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyson Davis	29	444	4	15.3	67
Jesse Prewitt III	31	438	4	14.1	70
Chris Parker	23	409	3	17.8	62
Marion Lukes	29	300	0	10.3	44

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

CMU's DC Robb Akey (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Jones	61	3	0	0	2
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Dakota Cochran	51	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacques Bristol	41	8	4	5	2
Maurice White	18	5	4	5	0
Quindario Lee	26	7	3	4	0
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Daraun McKinney	39	3	0	1	4

BALL's OC Jared Elliott (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Kiael Kelly	66	124	53%	577	2	3	4.7
Layne Hatcher (Tr)	65	98	66%	583	4	0	5.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	227	1043	4	4.6	39
Kiael Kelly	134	723	7	5.4	55
Vaughn Pemberton	23	139	1	6.0	45
Rico Barfield	25	96	1	3.8	24

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Qian Magwood	41	358	1	8.7	32
Ahmad Edwards	31	354	1	11.4	57
Tanner Koziol	34	295	3	8.7	26
Marquez Cooper (Tr)	19	164	0	8.6	26

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Tyler Stockton (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Sidney Houston Jr.	59	17	8	4	1
Mikhari Sibblis (Tr)	37	6	4	1	0
Cole Pearce	78	10	3	6	2
Keionte Newson	80	7	3	3	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jordan Riley-Scott	61	3	0	0	8
Tyler Potts	27	3	1	0	6
Thailand Baldwin	30	0	0	1	5