Central Michigan at Michigan State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Central Michigan Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans

Friday, September 1st 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Michigan State -14 (45.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Michigan State 31 - Central Michigan: 7

Chippewas (5 - 7) (3 - 9 - 0)
Coach Jim McElwain (25 - 23)
Avg Score : 23 - 31 (19 - 34 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3.9 - 8.1 (#118)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: Michigan State -12 (SP+ MSU -12)
Projected Score: CMU: 18 - MSU: 30 (48)
MSU Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
CMU Travel: 60 miles

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 16 - 28 (19 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
CMU Players
MSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Central Michigan's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Central Michigan at Michigan State	+14.0	45.0	L 7 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/9	Central Michigan vs New Hampshire	-7.0	48.5	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 9/16	Central Michigan at Notre Dame	+34.5	51.5	L 17 - 41	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Central Michigan at South Alabama	+16.5	46.5	W 34 - 30	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Central Michigan vs Eastern Michigan	-9.5	45.0	W 26 - 23	O	N
Sat 10/7	Central Michigan at Buffalo	-2.5	51.5	L 13 - 37	U	N
Sat 10/14	Central Michigan vs Akron	-10.5	44.0	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 10/21	Central Michigan at Ball State	-5.0	42.0	L 17 - 24	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Tue 10/31	Central Michigan vs Northern Illinois	+3.0	48.0	W 37 - 31	O	Y
Tue 11/7	Central Michigan at Western Michigan	+3.5	57.5	L 28 - 38	O	N
Wed 11/15	Central Michigan at Ohio	+11.5	48.5	L 20 - 34	O	N
Fri 11/24	Central Michigan vs Toledo	+12.5	54.5	L 17 - 32	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Central Michigan's Schedule

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	#83 (.16)	40% (101)	23.2	43% (72)	3.29 (35)	160	36% (111)	185	4.2 (39)	#128 (.32)	45% (115)	31.1	48% (116)	44% (95)	4.43 (121)	58.1	1.3	0.7
MSU	#131 (.03)	38% (115)	15.9	38% (122)	2.84 (114)	89	38% (99)	197	2.97 (125)	#75 (.19)	44% (95)	28.3	45% (85)	44% (105)	3.89 (76)	59	1.8	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
CMU	#96 (.15)	39% (115)		42% (88)	3.2 (41)	169	34% (124)	163	3.82 (80)	#96 (.21)	40% (44)		41% (48)	39% (50)	3.6 (45)	60.9	2	0.4
MSU	#105 (.13)	42% (86)		45% (50)	2.76 (109)	118	38% (107)	218	3.34 (116)	#85 (.19)	42% (69)		39% (25)	45% (111)	4.06 (98)	63.3	1.6	0.9

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Offense	12	23.2	19.4	39.5%	4.2	1.3	19	344	160	185	4.2	56%	43%	43%	36%	14%	.16
MSU Defense	12	28.3	26.5	43.9%	3.89	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	48%	51%	45%	44%	16%	.19

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
CMU Defense	12	31.1	33.6	45.5%	4.43	0.7	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	48%	44%	14%	.32
MSU Offense	12	15.9	18.7	37.6%	2.97	1.8	17	286	89	197	2.9	45%	54%	38%	38%	19%	.03

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Central Michigan	12	30:13	18.9	34%	70%	6.7	58.1	1.3	0.7	4.6	1.5	1	29.1
Michigan State	12	28:05	16.5	30%	50%	6.8	59	1.8	1.3	5.6	2.5	0	27.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Offense	12	56% (27)	43% (72)	38	159.5	4.2	21 (54)	.22 (30)	3.29 (35)	77% (36)	10% (68)	1.09 (23)
MSU Defense	12	48% (48)	45% (85)	-	-	-	-	.16 (83)	3.28 (106)	87% (128)	10% (72)	0.93 (35)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
CMU Defense	12	51% (86)	48% (116)	-	-	-	-	.25 (118)	3.4 (119)	77% (97)	8% (121)	1.04 (91)
MSU Offense	12	45% (104)	38% (122)	30.9	88.7	2.9	7 (131)	-.03 (131)	2.84 (114)	76% (50)	12% (119)	0.85 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Offense	12	43% (110)	36% (111)	15.3	27.1	184.7	6.8	12.1	15 (96)	11 (68)	.16 (108)	1.7 (31)	36% (125)	28% (86)	.36 (62)	4% (9)	2.3 (14)
MSU Defense	12	51% (85)	44% (105)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.28 (78)	1.5 (26)	29% (116)	32% (92)	.36 (92)	6% (66)	2 (58)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
CMU Defense	12	48% (50)	44% (95)	-	-	-	-	-	-	5 (126)	.41 (122)	1.7 (96)	31% (90)	29% (52)	.35 (87)	5% (98)	2 (52)
MSU Offense	12	54% (33)	38% (99)	18.5	31.8	197.2	6.2	10.7	14 (106)	13 (97)	.17 (101)	1.4 (121)	35% (113)	26% (107)	.16 (115)	7% (105)	2 (97)

Central Michigan's Power Ratings
Central Michigan's Power Rating: -11.77 #124
Central Michigan's Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Central Michigan's Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Central Michigan's 2023 Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10
Central Michigan's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Central Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Central Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -11.77 Michigan State: -3.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Central Michigan: -19.2 Michigan State: -6.9

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -3.64 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Central Michigan Scoring
Offense: 23.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 19.4
Defense: 31.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.6

Central Michigan's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 3 - 9 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Projected Score
Michigan State 30
Central Michigan 18

Total Points: 48

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 15.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 18.7
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.5

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/01	Michigan State	31	Central Michigan	7	Michigan State	Michigan State -14	Michigan State	45.0	Under
2018	09/29	Michigan State	31	Central Michigan	20	Michigan State	Michigan State -27.5	Central Michigan	46.0	Over
2015	09/26	Michigan State	30	Central Michigan	10	Michigan State	Michigan State -28.5	Central Michigan	56.0	Under
2012	09/08	Central Michigan	7	Michigan State	41	Michigan State
2011	09/24	Michigan State	45	Central Michigan	7	Michigan State
2009	09/12	Michigan State	27	Central Michigan	29	Central Michigan
2004	09/11	Michigan State	24	Central Michigan	7	Michigan State
2001	09/08	Michigan State	35	Central Michigan	21	Michigan State

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Michigan State	7	1	1 Overs
Central Michigan	1	2	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 6	2 - 1	0 - 0	2 - 1

(#124) Central Michigan Info
Power Rating: -11.77 #124
Offense Rating: 15.74 #74
Defense Rating: 17.30 #125
Overall SP+ Rating: -19.2 #126
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7 #119
Defense SP+ Rating: 33.9 #109
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 3.90 - 8.10

Record on Road: 1 - 6 (2 - 5 - 0 vs Spread )

Central Michigan Highlights
Central Michigan does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#96)

Central Michigan Deficiencies
Central Michigan offense is really bad (#130)
Central Michigan pass game is really bad (#124)
Central Michigan offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Central Michigan Defense Gives up a Lot of Points
Central Michigan does not Sack the QB (#122)
Central Michigan has a bad defense (#121)
Central Michigan Does Not Stuff Runs (#75)
Central Michigan has a bad defensive line (#91)
Central Michigan has a bad red zone defense (#114)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCat	MSU	CMU
OverallOver	#103	#92
OffenseOff	#107	#96
DefenseDef	#88	#78
Special TeamsST	#54	#31
PassingPass	#110	#75
RushingRush	#88	#70
Run BlockRBLK	#58	#62
Pass BlockPBLK	#97	#100
Route RunningWR Rt	#75	#105
TacklingTkl	#64	#46
Run DefenseR Def	#50	#79
Pass Rush DefPRush	#54	#72
Coverage DefCov	#112	#79

Rematch from Week 1
Michigan State -14.0 (45.0)
Michigan State won vs Central Michigan this year (31-7)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Central Michigan in 2023 (31-7)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Spartan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: CMU | MSU
Depth Chart: CMU | MSU
Rosters: CMU | MSU

(#92) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: -3.64 #92
Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18 #34
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Record at home: 3 - 3 (3 - 3 - 0 vs Spread)

Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State defense does not give up big plays (#31)

Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State has a really bad Offense at Home
Michigan State has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State offense is really bad (#93)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State run game is really bad (#96)
Michigan State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Michigan State Does Not Stuff Runs (#10)
Michigan State has a bad defensive line (#5)

Central Michigan's OC Paul Petrino

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jase Bauer	163	287	57%	1881	12	8	6.6
Bert Emanuel Jr.	19	37	51%	286	3	3	7.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Marion Lukes	144	737	5	5.1	46
Myles Bailey	102	476	3	4.7	48
Jase Bauer	121	366	10	3.0	29
Bert Emanuel Jr.	50	220	2	4.4	66

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tyson Davis	29	444	4	15.3	67
Jesse Prewitt III	31	438	4	14.1	70
Chris Parker	23	409	3	17.8	62
Marion Lukes	29	300	0	10.3	44

View Central Michigan's Full Roster

Central Michigan's DC Robb Akey

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Trey Jones	61	3	0	0	2
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Dakota Cochran	51	2	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jacques Bristol	41	8	4	5	2
Maurice White	18	5	4	5	0
Quindario Lee	26	7	3	4	0
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Donte Kent	52	3	1	1	7
Kyle Moretti	59	3	2	1	5
Daraun McKinney	39	3	0	1	4

Michigan State's OC Jay Johnson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

Michigan State's DC Scottie Hazelton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5