New Mexico at Nevada - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 28th 2023 (10:30 PM EDT)
New Mexico -1.0 (50.0) (0) Open: -1.0
Nevada 34 - New Mexico: 24 (Mountain West)

Lobos (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Danny Gonzales (8 - 26)
Avg Score : 34 - 38 (31 - 37 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#76)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: New Mexico -5.5 (SP+ UNM -5.5)
Projected Score: UNM: 31 - NEV: 25 (62)
UNM Win prob: 48% | Cover: 46%
UNM Travel: 787 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 23 - 29 (28 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
UNM Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

New Mexico's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	New Mexico at Texas A&M	+37.5	48.5	L 10 - 52	O	N
Sat 9/9	New Mexico vs Tennessee Tech	-16.0	51.5	W 56 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico vs New Mexico State	-2.5	52.0	L 17 - 27	U	N
Sat 9/23	New Mexico at Massachusetts	+3.5	48.5	W 34 - 31	O	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico at Wyoming	+14.5	40.5	L 26 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	New Mexico vs San José State	+6.5	55.0	L 24 - 52	O	N
Sat 10/21	New Mexico vs Hawai'i	+1.5	60.0	W 42 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/28	New Mexico at Nevada	-1.0	50.0	L 24 - 34	O	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico vs UNLV	+10.0	61.0	L 14 - 56	O	N
Sat 11/11	New Mexico at Boise State	+27.5	58.5	L 14 - 42	U	N
Sat 11/18	New Mexico at Fresno State	+22.5	58.5	W 25 - 17	U	Y
Fri 11/24	New Mexico vs Utah State	+4.5	58.5	L 41 - 44	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for New Mexico's Schedule

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM	-.06	33%	33.5	39%	2.97	121	25%	106	3.04	.17	43%	38	47%	40%	3.55	51.2	1.2	1.9
NEV	.04	35%	23.1	37%	2.89	119	33%	186	2.85	.26	43%	28.8	44%	42%	3.97	55.1	1.4	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
UNM		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Offense	12	33.5	30.7	33%	3.04	1.2	13	227	121	106	3.3	57%	41%	39%	25%	24%	-.06
NEV Defense	12	28.8	26.6	42.9%	3.97	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	44%	42%	19%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
UNM Defense	12	38	37.4	43.2%	3.55	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	47%	40%	17%	.17
NEV Offense	12	23.1	27.6	34.8%	2.85	1.4	17	305	119	186	3.3	47%	52%	37%	33%	23%	.04

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
New Mexico	12	28:57	13.1	22%	29%	6.1	51.2	1.2	1.9	5.2	2.1	2	28.8
Nevada	12	28:29	16.9	35%	50%	6	55.1	1.4	1.7	6.3	2.2	1	27.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Offense	12	57%	39%	36.5	121.3	3.3	12	.06	2.97	56%	17%	0.92
NEV Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.46	90%	13%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
UNM Defense	12	55%	47%	-	-	-	-	.17	3.17	77%	10%	0.92
NEV Offense	12	47%	37%	35.6	118.9	3.3	19	.01	2.89	73%	15%	1.08

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Offense	12	41%	25%	11.5	21.3	105.5	5	9.2	3	9	-.15	1.2	35%	18%	.01	6%	1.9
NEV Defense	12	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.8	33%	30%	.44	6%	2.4

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
UNM Defense	12	44%	40%	-	-	-	-	-	-	9	.24	1.6	27%	23%	.1	7%	1.9
NEV Offense	12	52%	33%	18.1	33.2	185.6	5.6	10.3	7	8	.1	1.6	38%	27%	.19	8%	2.2

New Mexico's Power Ratings
New Mexico's Power Rating: -5.50 #94
New Mexico's Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
New Mexico's Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
2023 Talent Rating: 464.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
New Mexico's 2023 Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10
New Mexico's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
New Mexico's Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
New Mexico's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -5.50 Nevada: -16.405

SP+ Ratings Matchup
New Mexico: -16.8 Nevada: -22.4

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -16.405 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 492.67
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

New Mexico Scoring
Offense: 33.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 30.7
Defense: 38 PPG
Defense on Road: 37.4

New Mexico's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico 31
Nevada 25

Projected Total Points: 62

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 23.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.6
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.6

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record at home: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	10/28	Nevada	34	New Mexico	24	Nevada	New Mexico -1.0	Nevada	50.0	Over
2020	11/14	New Mexico	20	Nevada	27	Nevada	Nevada -17.5	New Mexico	62.5	Under
2019	11/02	Nevada	21	New Mexico	10	Nevada	Nevada -3.5	Nevada	58.0	Under
2016	11/05	New Mexico	35	Nevada	26	New Mexico	New Mexico -11	Nevada	58.5	Over
2015	10/10	Nevada	35	New Mexico	17	Nevada	Nevada -6	Nevada	53.5	Under
2012	11/17	New Mexico	24	Nevada	31	Nevada
2011	10/15	Nevada	49	New Mexico	7	Nevada
2007	12/22	New Mexico	23	Nevada	0	New Mexico

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	6	4	2 Overs
New Mexico	2	1	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	6 - 2	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	2 - 6	1 - 4	0 - 2	1 - 2

(#94) New Mexico Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.50 #94
Offense Rating: 25.20 #12
Defense Rating: 19.08 #130
Overall SP+ Rating: -16.8 #124
Offense SP+ Rating: 22.3 #88
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.2 #128
Talent Rating: 464.00 #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Expected Record: 5.90 - 6.10

Team Profile

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New Mexico Ratings Matchup Nevada

Power #94

#131

Off #12

#128

Def #130

#110

Talent #100

#101

SP+ #124

#131

SP+ Off #88

#129

SP+ Def #128

#127

Rematch from Week 9
New Mexico 1.0 (50.0)
Nevada won vs New Mexico this year (34-24)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat New Mexico in 2023 (34-24)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 36°

Team Information
Injuries: UNM | NEV
Depth Chart: UNM | NEV
Rosters: UNM | NEV

(#131) Nevada Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -16.405 #131
Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127
Talent Rating: 456.00 #101
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10

Team Profile

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New Mexico's OC Bryant Vincent

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Aidan Armenta	102	188	54%	1294	9	10	6.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Christian Washington	102	537	5	5.3	68
Jacory Merritt	13	106	1	8.2	36
Aidan Armenta	47	57	1	1.2	43
Jacob Godfrey	1	22	0	22.0	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ryan Davis	54	747	3	13.8	55
Jacob Godfrey	24	265	2	11.0	57
D.J. Washington	4	51	0	12.8	16
Christian Washington	4	36	0	9.0	24

View New Mexico's Full Roster

New Mexico's DC Troy Reffett

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PRESS	PD
Noa Pola-Gates (Tr)	50	0	0	7
Jer'Marius Lewis	28	1	0	2
Bryce Santana	28	2	1	0
Kyler Drake	18	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Hunter Rapolla	6	1	1	0	0
Noa Pola-Gates (Tr)	50	0	0	0	7
Jer'Marius Lewis	28	1	0	0	2
Bryce Santana	28	2	0	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Noa Pola-Gates (Tr)	50	0	7
Jer'Marius Lewis	28	1	2
Tyler Kiehne	6	1	1

Nevada's OC Derek Sage

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chubba Purdy	18	25	72%	239	1	1	9.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Chubba Purdy	13	60	0	4.6	19
Jamaal Bell	5	27	0	5.4	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Keleki Latu (Tr)	40	371	1	9.3	36
Dalevon Campbell	12	312	0	26.0	60
Spencer Curtis	19	244	0	12.8	28
Chubba Purdy	2	10	0	5.0	11

View Nevada's Full Roster

Nevada's DC Kwame Agyeman

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	56	8	6	7	2
Dion Washington	17	4	2	0	0
Isaiah Essissima	14	1	0	0	4
Richard Toney	9	0	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	56	8	6	7	2
Dion Washington	17	4	2	0	0
James Hansen	3	1	1	0	0
Isaiah Essissima	14	1	0	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Isaiah Essissima	14	1	0	0	4
Marcel Walker	56	8	6	7	2
Richard Toney	9	0	0	0	1