Nevada at Colorado State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, November 18th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Colorado State -12.5 (45.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Colorado State 30 - Nevada: 20 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 17 - 33 (16 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV 2nd straight Road Game
CSU 2nd straight Home Game
CSU is playing their 10th straight game
NEV is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Colorado State -15 (SP+ CSU -13)
Projected Score: NEV: 16 - CSU: 31 (46)
CSU Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
NEV Travel: 781 miles, 1 hrs behind

Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (27 - 28 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
CSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Colorado State vs Washington State	+9.5	54.0	L 24 - 50	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Colorado State at Colorado	+23.0	63.0	L 35 - 43	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Colorado State at Middle Tennessee	+3.5	50.0	W 31 - 23	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Colorado State vs Utah Tech	-19
Sat 10/7	Colorado State at Utah State	-3.0	62.0	L 24 - 44	O	N
Sat 10/14	Colorado State vs Boise State	+7.5	60.0	W 31 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Colorado State at UNLV	+6.5	60.0	L 23 - 25	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Colorado State vs Air Force	+14.5	47.0	L 13 - 30	U	N
Fri 11/3	Colorado State at Wyoming	+6.0	41.0	L 15 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/11	Colorado State vs San Diego State	-3.5	46.5	W 22 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/18	Colorado State vs Nevada	-12.5	45.5	W 30 - 20	O	N
Sat 11/25	Colorado State at Hawai'i	-6.0	54.0	L 24 - 27	U	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.3	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	33.4	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3
CSU	#81 (.17)	42% (74)	26.1	39% (118)	2.7 (124)	93	45% (38)	307	3.66 (86)	#65 (.18)	43% (80)	29.6	42% (61)	44% (107)	3.4 (31)	69.8	2.1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
CSU	#90 (.16)	42% (76)		43% (80)	2.88 (96)	162	41% (81)	192	3.56 (98)	#61 (.16)	42% (78)		42% (59)	43% (94)	4 (88)	47.3	1.2	1.5

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.3	16.2	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04
CSU Defense	12	29.6	28.2	42.9%	3.4	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	52%	47%	42%	44%	16%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	33.4	33.2	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24
CSU Offense	12	26.1	26.8	41.6%	3.66	2.1	21	399	93	307	3.4	39%	59%	39%	45%	16%	.17

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8
Colorado State	12	26:34	20.6	41%	42%	7.6	69.8	2.1	1.6	7.2	2.8	2	26.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)
CSU Defense	12	52% (102)	42% (61)	-	-	-	-	.11 (47)	3.05 (55)	75% (82)	12% (24)	1.04 (90)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)
CSU Offense	12	39% (126)	39% (118)	27.7	92.8	3.4	10 (124)	-.02 (130)	2.7 (124)	69% (102)	7% (15)	0.72 (133)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)
CSU Defense	12	47% (31)	44% (107)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.29 (87)	1.4 (10)	32% (69)	30% (69)	.3 (60)	4% (126)	2.1 (79)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)
CSU Offense	12	59% (9)	45% (38)	25.9	41.8	306.5	7.3	11.8	24 (41)	18 (128)	.35 (43)	1.5 (100)	33% (86)	29% (81)	.31 (74)	8% (124)	2 (105)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41 Colorado State: -3.77

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4 Colorado State: -9.1

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.77 #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50 #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05 #62
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1 #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7 #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9 #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.2
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Colorado State 31
Nevada 16

Total Points: 46

Based on Last 4 Games
Nevada 21
Colorado State 20

Total Points: 41

Based on Entire Season
Colorado State 30
Nevada 23

Total Points: 53

Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 28.2

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/02	Nevada	21	Colorado State	38	Colorado State -2	Colorado State	45.5	Over
2023	11/18	Colorado State	30	Nevada	20	Colorado State -12.5	Nevada	45.5	Over
2022	10/07	Nevada	14	Colorado State	17	Nevada -3.5	Colorado State	44.0	Under
2021	11/27	Colorado State	10	Nevada	52	Nevada -3	Nevada	57.5	Over
2018	11/10	Nevada	49	Colorado State	10	Nevada -14	Nevada	61.5	Under
2017	10/14	Colorado State	44	Nevada	42	Colorado State -24.5	Nevada	65.5	Over
2015	12/29	Colorado State	23	Nevada	28	Colorado State -3.5	Nevada	0
2014	10/11	Nevada	24	Colorado State	31	Colorado State -2.5	Colorado State	65.5	Under
2013	11/09	Colorado State	38	Nevada	17	Colorado State -8	Colorado State	0
2010	09/11	Nevada	51	Colorado State	6
2009	09/19	Colorado State	35	Nevada	20
2006	09/16	Nevada	28	Colorado State	10
2005	09/24	Colorado State	42	Nevada	21
2002	09/28	Nevada	28	Colorado State	32
2001	09/08	Colorado State	35	Nevada	18
2000	09/29	Nevada	14	Colorado State	45

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Colorado State	11	4	4 Overs
Nevada	5	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 7	2 - 7	2 - 4	0 - 3
Road Teams	7 - 9	7 - 2	3 - 0	4 - 2

(#131) NEV at (#83) CSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	CSU
Power RatePwr	#131	#83
SP+SP+	#131	#99
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#84
OffenseOff	#133	#84
DefenseDef	#132	#78
Spec TeamsST	#84	#114
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Nevada Injury Report

Colorado State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	CSU Def
Perf GradePerf	#133	#78
SuccessSuc	#129	#80
ExplosiveExp	#110	#31
PPAPPA	#128	#65
PowerPwr	#128	#62
SP+SP+	#129	#101
Pts POPPO	#132	#31
HavocHav	#131	#70

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	CSU Def
Run GameRun	#115	#99
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#61
Run ExplRExp	#78	#90
PPAExp	#107	#47
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#55
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#47
TackleTak	-	#58

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	CSU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#72
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#107
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#10
PPAExp	#132	#87
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#23
F7 HavocF7	#133	#24
DB HavocDB	#89	#126

Colorado State on Offense


CategoryCat	CSU Off	NEV Def
Perf GradePerf	#84	#132
SuccessSuc	#74	#122
ExplosiveExp	#99	#100
PPAPPA	#81	#101
PowerPwr	#78	#110
SP+SP+	#93	#127
Pts POPPO	#86	#71
HavocHav	#65	#112

Colorado State Run Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#129	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#118	#110
Run ExplRExp	#133	#104
PPAExp	#130	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#41	-
OL YdsOLY	#124	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#114	#90
TackleTak	-	#129

Colorado State Pass Game


CategoryCat	CSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#101	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	#38	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#100	#83
PPAExp	#43	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#59	#136
F7 HavocF7	#15	#99
DB HavocDB	#124	#99

Program Comparison
CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Canvas Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 57° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 12
Colorado State -12.5 (45.5)
Colorado State won vs Nevada this year (30-20)

Previous Matchups
Colorado State beat Nevada last year (38-21)
Colorado State beat Nevada in 2023 (30-20)
Colorado State beat Nevada in 2022 (17-14)

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	131	236	56%	1313	2	6	5.6
AJ Bianco	45	82	55%	614	4	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Dollars	151	527	6	3.5	33
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	120	495	4	4.1	31
AJ Bianco	42	183	1	4.4	28
Jamaal Bell	32	114	1	3.6	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalevon Campbell	31	594	2	19.2	53
Spencer Curtis	30	373	1	12.4	73
John Jackson III (Tr)	35	267	0	7.6	33
Jamaal Bell	32	262	1	8.2	77

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Richard Toney	62	4	1	0	1
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	48	2	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	43	7	4	1	1
Ike Nnakenyi	3	2	2	0	0
Dion Washington	12	5	1	2	0
Mackavelli Malotumau (Tr)	11	1	1	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KK Meier	25	1	0	0	5
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3

CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi	292	470	62%	3460	22	16	7.4
Clay Millen	15	24	63%	110	0	1	4.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vann Schield	90	389	3	4.3	52
Justin Marshall	57	311	2	5.5	21
Avery Morrow	81	262	2	3.2	13
Kobe Johnson	44	128	1	2.9	13

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Tory Horton	96	1136	8	11.8	76
Dallin Holker (Tr)	64	767	6	12.0	42
Justus Ross-Simmons	45	724	3	16.1	75
Louis Brown	47	481	5	10.2	46

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3
Henry Blackburn	75	7	3	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Mohamed Kamara	55	16	12	10	1
Marshon Oxley	26	6	4	1	0
Chase Wilson	107	9	4	1	3
Tony Pierce Jr.	31	5	3	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jack Howell	114	1	0	3	3
Dom Jones	32	0	0	0	3
Justin Sanchez	87	4	1	2	3