Nevada at Utah State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies

Saturday, November 11th 2023 (3:00 PM EST)
Utah State -14.5 (54.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Utah State 41 - Nevada: 24 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (16 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Utah State -13 (SP+ USU -14)
Projected Score: NEV: 20 - USU: 33 (53)
USU Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
NEV Travel: 446 miles, 1 hrs behind

Aggies (6 - 7) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach Blake Anderson (18 - 12)
Avg Score : 31 - 29 (38 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.5 - 7.5 (#87)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
USU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

Utah State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Utah State at Iowa	+24.0	43.5	L 14 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Utah State vs Idaho State	-24.0	61.0	W 78 - 28	O	Y
Fri 9/15	Utah State at Air Force	+9.0	45.5	L 21 - 39	O	N
Sat 9/23	Utah State vs James Madison	+5.5	53.5	L 38 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Utah State at UConn	-4.0	50.5	W 34 - 33	O	N
Sat 10/7	Utah State vs Colorado State	+3.0	62.0	W 44 - 24	O	Y
Fri 10/13	Utah State vs Fresno State	+5.5	56.0	L 32 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Utah State at San José State	+4.0	65.0	L 21 - 42	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Utah State at San Diego State	-2.0	56.5	W 32 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Utah State vs Nevada	-14.5	54.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Utah State vs Boise State	+5.5	62.5	L 10 - 45	U	N
Fri 11/24	Utah State at New Mexico	-4.5	58.5	W 44 - 41	O	N
Sat 12/23	Utah State vs Georgia State	-2.0	58.0	L 22 - 45	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	.04	35%	17.6	37%	2.89	119	33%	186	2.85	.26	43%	27.5	44%	42%	3.97	55.1	1.4	1.7
USU	.07	38%	30.9	39%	3.13	159	38%	195	3.15	.17	41%	28.7	44%	39%	4.05	77.5	2.1	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
USU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.6	15.5	34.8%	2.85	1.4	17	305	119	186	3.3	47%	52%	37%	33%	23%	.04
USU Defense	13	28.7	19.5	41.2%	4.05	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	55%	44%	44%	39%	17%	.17

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	27.5	29.8	42.9%	3.97	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	53%	47%	44%	42%	19%	.26
USU Offense	13	30.9	38.3	37.9%	3.15	2.1	20	354	159	195	3.8	55%	44%	39%	38%	17%	.07

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	28:29	16.9	35%	50%	6	55.1	1.4	1.7	6.3	2.2	1	27.2
Utah State	13	28:47	19.8	33%	53%	8.5	77.5	2.1	1.7	5.8	2.7	3	30.4

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	47%	37%	35.6	118.9	3.3	19	.01	2.89	73%	15%	1.08
USU Defense	13	55%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	3	71%	11%	1.1

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.46	90%	13%	0.95
USU Offense	13	55%	39%	42.2	159.3	3.8	14	.08	3.13	72%	9%	0.92

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	52%	33%	18.1	33.2	185.6	5.6	10.3	7	8	.1	1.6	38%	27%	.19	8%	2.2
USU Defense	13	44%	39%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.26	1.7	31%	29%	.24	6%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	47%	42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.35	1.8	33%	30%	.44	6%	2.4
USU Offense	13	44%	38%	17.7	30.6	195.2	6.4	11	18	21	.13	1.5	32%	26%	.08	8%	1.7

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 470.32 #99
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 355.54
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41 Utah State: -5.705

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4 Utah State: -8.5

Utah State's Power Ratings
Utah State's Power Rating: -5.705 #107
Utah State's Offense Rating: 15.84 #72
Utah State's Defense Rating: 13.07 #103
2023 Talent Rating: 435.99 #104
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
Utah State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.50 - 7.50
Utah State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -8.5 #97
Utah State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.4 #49
Utah State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.5 #129

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 517.06
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.5
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.8

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Utah State 33
Nevada 20

Projected Total Points: 53

Utah State Scoring
Offense: 30.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 38.3
Defense: 28.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Utah State's 2023 Record
Record: 6 - 7
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 4
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/08	Utah State	51	Nevada	14	Utah State -10	Utah State	52.5	Over
2023	11/11	Utah State	41	Nevada	24	Utah State -14.5	Utah State	54.5	Over
2020	11/05	Nevada	34	Utah State	9	Nevada -17	Nevada	57.5	Under
2019	10/19	Utah State	36	Nevada	10	Utah State -21	Utah State	59.0	Under
2016	11/19	Nevada	38	Utah State	37	Utah State -5	Nevada	56.5	Over
2015	11/21	Utah State	31	Nevada	27	Utah State -14	Nevada	54.5	Over
2011	11/26	Utah State	21	Nevada	17
2010	10/30	Nevada	56	Utah State	42
2009	10/17	Utah State	32	Nevada	35
2008	10/18	Nevada	44	Utah State	17
2007	10/20	Utah State	28	Nevada	31
2006	11/11	Nevada	42	Utah State	0
2005	11/19	Utah State	24	Nevada	30

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Utah State	5	3	4 Overs
Nevada	8	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	10 - 3	5 - 1	4 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	3 - 10	1 - 5	0 - 1	1 - 4

(#131) NEV at (#107) USU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	USU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#107
SP+SP+	#131	#97
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#113
OffenseOff	#133	#67
DefenseDef	#132	#131
Spec TeamsST	#84	#91
TalentTal	#99	#104
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#75

Nevada Injury Report

Utah State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#131
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#128	#103
SP+SP+	#129	#129
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Run GameRun	#115	#135
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#126

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	USU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#81
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#111
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Utah State on Offense


CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#67	#132
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#72	#110
SP+SP+	#49	#127
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Utah State Run Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#27	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#100	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#129

Utah State Pass Game


CategoryCat	USU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#66	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#129	#136
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'23 Profile: Remains Average G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Romney Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 11
Utah State -14.5 (54.5)
Utah State won vs Nevada this year (41-24)

Previous Matchups
Utah State beat Nevada last year (51-14)
Utah State beat Nevada in 2023 (41-24)

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	131	236	56%	1313	2	6	5.6
AJ Bianco	45	82	55%	614	4	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Dollars	151	527	6	3.5	33
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	120	495	4	4.1	31
AJ Bianco	42	183	1	4.4	28
Jamaal Bell	32	114	1	3.6	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalevon Campbell	31	594	2	19.2	53
Spencer Curtis	30	373	1	12.4	73
John Jackson III (Tr)	35	267	0	7.6	33
Jamaal Bell	32	262	1	8.2	77

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Richard Toney	62	4	1	0	1
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	48	2	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	43	7	4	1	1
Ike Nnakenyi	3	2	2	0	0
Dion Washington	12	5	1	2	0
Mackavelli Malotumau (Tr)	11	1	1	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KK Meier	25	1	0	0	5
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3

USU's OC Kyle Cefalo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Cooper Legas	138	213	65%	1815	19	8	8.5
McCae Hillstead	94	158	60%	1062	11	8	6.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davon Booth	120	805	6	6.7	65
Rahsul Faison	118	736	5	6.2	60
Robert Briggs	80	420	2	5.3	58
Levi Williams	45	209	3	4.6	29

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Royals	71	1080	15	15.2	71
Terrell Vaughn	90	937	11	10.4	76
Micah Davis	36	628	6	17.4	76
Colby Bowman (Tr)	11	247	2	22.5	63

View Utah State's Full Roster

USU's DC Joe Cauthen (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
MJ Tafisi	142	9	0	2	1
Ike Larsen	102	5	0	1	6
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Devin Dye	82	2	0	0	7

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Paul Fitzgerald	46	9	7	1	1
Blaine Spires	26	8	5	10	1
Anthony Switzer	85	8	3	5	4
Hale Motu'apuaka	33	6	3	4	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Devin Dye	82	2	7
Jordan Drew	27	0	6
Avante Dickerson	17	0	6