Nevada at San Diego State - 2023 Matchup Preview

Nevada Wolf Pack at San Diego State Aztecs

Saturday, October 21st 2023 (9:00 PM EDT)
San Diego State -11 (48.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Nevada 6 - San Diego State: 0 (Mountain West)

Wolf Pack (2 - 10) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach Ken Wilson (2 - 13)
Avg Score : 17 - 33 (16 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.9 - 9.1 (#129)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: San Diego State -12.5 (SP+ SDSU -12)
Projected Score: NEV: 19 - SDSU: 31 (50)
SDSU Win prob: 78% | Cover: 49%
NEV Travel: 491 miles

Aztecs (4 - 8) (7 - 5 - 0)
Coach Brady Hoke (25 - 14)
Avg Score : 21 - 27 (22 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#99)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
NEV Players
SDSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Nevada's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at USC	+37.5	63.5	L 14 - 66	O	N
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Idaho	+5.5	51.0	L 6 - 33	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Kansas	+28.5	58.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Texas State	+17.0	60.0	L 24 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+25.5	50.5	L 9 - 27	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Nevada vs UNLV	+7.5	51.5	L 27 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/21	Nevada at San Diego State	+11.0	48.5	W 6 - 0	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Nevada vs New Mexico	+1.0	50.0	W 34 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Nevada vs Hawai'i	-3.5	50.5	L 14 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada at Utah State	+14.5	54.5	L 24 - 41	O	N
Sat 11/18	Nevada at Colorado State	+12.5	45.5	L 20 - 30	O	Y
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs Wyoming	+11.0	42.0	L 6 - 42	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Nevada's Schedule

San Diego State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	San Diego State vs Ohio	-2.0	48.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/2	San Diego State vs Idaho State	-34.5	51.0	W 36 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/9	San Diego State vs UCLA	+13.0	49.0	L 10 - 35	U	N
Sat 9/16	San Diego State at Oregon State	+24.5	48.5	L 9 - 26	U	Y
Fri 9/22	San Diego State vs Boise State	+6.5	46.0	L 31 - 34	O	Y
Sat 9/30	San Diego State at Air Force	+10.5	43.5	L 10 - 49	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	San Diego State at Hawai'i	-6.0	51.5	W 41 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/21	San Diego State vs Nevada	-11.0	48.5	L 0 - 6	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	San Diego State vs Utah State	+2.0	56.5	L 24 - 32	U	N
Sat 11/11	San Diego State at Colorado State	+3.5	46.5	L 19 - 22	U	Y
Sat 11/18	San Diego State at San José State	+16.5	48.5	L 13 - 24	U	Y
Sat 11/25	San Diego State vs Fresno State	+5.5	47.0	W 33 - 18	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#128 (.04)	35% (129)	17.3	39% (116)	2.67 (127)	125	32% (132)	175	2.54 (132)	#101 (.24)	46% (122)	33.4	47% (110)	47% (126)	3.83 (71)	58.5	1.7	1.3
SDSU	#96 (.14)	42% (70)	20.5	43% (69)	3.08 (77)	154	41% (77)	172	3.2 (116)	#108 (.24)	47% (127)	26.8	53% (130)	43% (86)	3.38 (30)	44	1.4	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
NEV	#55 (.21)	45% (46)		47% (33)	3.06 (59)	164	42% (65)	213	3.88 (73)	#110 (.24)	46% (117)		49% (121)	43% (92)	4.33 (114)	73.1	1.2	1
SDSU	#108 (.12)	37% (120)		37% (124)	3 (78)	129	38% (109)	206	3.44 (107)	#103 (.23)	46% (113)		49% (117)	43% (98)	4.28 (111)	81.8	0.8	1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Offense	12	17.3	16.2	35.4%	2.54	1.7	17	300	125	175	3.4	55%	45%	39%	32%	22%	.04
SDSU Defense	12	26.8	23.7	46.9%	3.38	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	52%	53%	43%	16%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
NEV Defense	12	33.4	33.2	46.5%	3.83	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	47%	47%	14%	.24
SDSU Offense	12	20.5	22	41.9%	3.2	1.4	17	326	154	172	4.1	56%	43%	43%	41%	15%	.14

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Nevada	12	30:19	16.7	30%	43%	6.8	58.5	1.7	1.3	4	1.3	3	26.8
San Diego State	12	32:47	17.2	35%	57%	4.9	44	1.4	1.5	4.1	1.5	1	31.6

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Offense	12	55% (33)	39% (116)	36.9	124.8	3.4	14 (106)	.08 (107)	2.67 (127)	55% (132)	16% (133)	0.98 (78)
SDSU Defense	12	46% (22)	53% (130)	-	-	-	-	.27 (126)	3.44 (123)	83% (114)	8% (118)	0.93 (36)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
NEV Defense	12	51% (81)	47% (110)	-	-	-	-	.19 (97)	3.28 (107)	67% (30)	9% (99)	1.07 (104)
SDSU Offense	12	56% (22)	43% (69)	37.8	154.3	4.1	16 (89)	.12 (85)	3.08 (77)	74% (66)	10% (67)	0.9 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Offense	12	45% (102)	32% (132)	15.9	28.8	175.2	6.1	11	6 (133)	12 (85)	.02 (132)	1.5 (88)	34% (107)	26% (109)	.06 (132)	6% (89)	1.7 (130)
SDSU Defense	12	52% (110)	43% (86)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.27 (68)	1.5 (33)	28% (128)	32% (100)	.34 (80)	8% (18)	2 (40)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
NEV Defense	12	48% (52)	47% (126)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.32 (99)	1.6 (83)	30% (102)	30% (68)	.28 (50)	5% (99)	2 (37)
SDSU Offense	12	43% (112)	41% (77)	16.8	26.6	171.8	6.5	10.2	10 (120)	10 (56)	.21 (91)	1.4 (125)	32% (69)	27% (100)	.1 (128)	5% (28)	1.6 (133)

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -15.41 #131
Nevada's Offense Rating: 7.38 #128
Nevada's Defense Rating: 13.79 #110
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #75
Nevada's 2023 Expected Record: 2.90 - 9.10
Nevada's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.4 #131
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 14.2 #129
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #127

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -15.41 San Diego State: -6.495

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Nevada: -22.4 San Diego State: -10.5

San Diego State's Power Ratings
San Diego State's Power Rating: -6.495 #104
San Diego State's Offense Rating: 12.44 #106
San Diego State's Defense Rating: 10.98 #86
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 1 #69
San Diego State's 2023 Expected Record: 5.00 - 7.00
San Diego State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -10.5 #107
San Diego State's Offense SP+ Rating: 19.2 #110
San Diego State's Defense SP+ Rating: 30.1 #91

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 16.2
Defense: 33.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 33.2

Nevada's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 6 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
San Diego State 31
Nevada 19

Total Points: 50

Based on Last 4 Games
San Diego State 30
Nevada 27

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
San Diego State 27
Nevada 21

Total Points: 48

San Diego State Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 22
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 23.7

San Diego State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/11	Nevada	10	San Diego State	44	San Diego State -6.5	San Diego State	42.5	Over
2023	10/21	San Diego State	0	Nevada	6	San Diego State -11	Nevada	48.5	Under
2022	10/22	Nevada	7	San Diego State	23	San Diego State -7.5	San Diego State	36.0	Under
2021	11/13	San Diego State	23	Nevada	21	San Diego State -2.5	Nevada	45.0	Under
2020	11/21	Nevada	26	San Diego State	21	San Diego State -1.5	Nevada	46.5	Over
2019	11/09	San Diego State	13	Nevada	17	San Diego State -17	Nevada	39.5	Under
2018	10/27	Nevada	28	San Diego State	24	Nevada -1	Nevada	45.5	Over
2017	11/18	San Diego State	42	Nevada	23	San Diego State -17.5	San Diego State	56.0	Over
2016	11/12	Nevada	16	San Diego State	46	San Diego State -20.5	San Diego State	50.5	Over
2015	11/28	San Diego State	31	Nevada	14	San Diego State -14	San Diego State	48.5	Under
2014	11/01	Nevada	30	San Diego State	14	Nevada -6	Nevada	0
2013	10/04	San Diego State	51	Nevada	44	San Diego State -5.5	San Diego State	0
2012	10/20	Nevada	38	San Diego State	39
2004	09/25	San Diego State	27	Nevada	10

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
San Diego State	9	6	5 Overs
Nevada	5	6	5 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	8 - 6	6 - 6	5 - 3	1 - 3
Road Teams	6 - 8	6 - 6	3 - 1	3 - 5

(#131) NEV at (#104) SDSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	NEV	SDSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#104
SP+SP+	#131	#107
Perf GradeGrade	#136	#126
OffenseOff	#133	#104
DefenseDef	#132	#133
Spec TeamsST	#84	#52
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#75	#69

Nevada Injury Report

San Diego State Injury Report

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#133	#133
SuccessSuc	#129	#127
ExplosiveExp	#110	#22
PPAPPA	#128	#108
PowerPwr	#128	#86
SP+SP+	#129	#91
Pts POPPO	#132	#30
HavocHav	#131	#79

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
Run GameRun	#115	#134
Run SuccessRSuc	#116	#130
Run ExplRExp	#78	#36
PPAExp	#107	#126
Run BlockR Blk	#94	-
OL YdsOLY	#127	#123
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#121
TackleTak	-	#133

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	SDSU Def
Pass GamePass	#129	#113
Pass SuccessPSuc	#132	#86
Pass ExplPExl	#88	#33
PPAExp	#132	#68
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#134
F7 HavocF7	#133	#118
DB HavocDB	#89	#18

San Diego State on Offense


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#104	#132
SuccessSuc	#70	#122
ExplosiveExp	#130	#100
PPAPPA	#96	#101
PowerPwr	#106	#110
SP+SP+	#110	#127
Pts POPPO	#116	#71
HavocHav	#49	#112

San Diego State Run Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	#81	#127
Run SuccessRSuc	#69	#110
Run ExplRExp	#111	#104
PPAExp	#85	#97
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	#77	#107
Stuff RateStuff	#50	#90
TackleTak	-	#129

San Diego State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SDSU Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	#111	#123
Pass SuccessPSuc	#77	#126
Pass ExplPExl	#125	#83
PPAExp	#91	#99
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#31	#136
F7 HavocF7	#67	#99
DB HavocDB	#28	#99

Program Comparison
SDSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Average G5
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

NEV 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Up to Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Snapdragon Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 67° - Wind: 9 mph

Rematch from Week 8
San Diego State -11.0 (48.5)
Nevada won at San Diego State this year (6-0)

Previous Matchups
Nevada beat San Diego State in 2023 (6-0)
San Diego State beat Nevada in 2022 (23-7)

NEV's OC Derek Sage (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	131	236	56%	1313	2	6	5.6
AJ Bianco	45	82	55%	614	4	5	7.5

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sean Dollars	151	527	6	3.5	33
Brendon Lewis (Tr)	120	495	4	4.1	31
AJ Bianco	42	183	1	4.4	28
Jamaal Bell	32	114	1	3.6	31

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Dalevon Campbell	31	594	2	19.2	53
Spencer Curtis	30	373	1	12.4	73
John Jackson III (Tr)	35	267	0	7.6	33
Jamaal Bell	32	262	1	8.2	77

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC Kwame Agyeman (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Richard Toney	62	4	1	0	1
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3
Tongiaki Mateialona	48	2	1	2	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Marcel Walker	43	7	4	1	1
Ike Nnakenyi	3	2	2	0	0
Dion Washington	12	5	1	2	0
Mackavelli Malotumau (Tr)	11	1	1	2	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
KK Meier	25	1	0	0	5
Emany Johnson	90	3	0	0	3
Drue Watts	56	6	1	1	3

SDSU's OC Ryan Lindley (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jalen Mayden	199	314	63%	2031	10	9	6.5
Tobin O'Dell	1	2	50%	0	0	1	0.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jalen Mayden	128	528	5	4.1	70
Jaylon Armstead	103	448	8	4.3	48
Kenan Christon	96	378	0	3.9	39
Cam Davis	52	225	0	4.3	25

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Mark Redman	38	408	3	10.7	29
Mekhi Shaw	27	375	2	13.9	69
Brionne Penny	25	290	1	11.6	36
Baylin Brooks	15	261	1	17.4	37

View San Diego State's Full Roster

SDSU's DC Kurt Mattix (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Cody Moon	58	0	0	9	2
Cedarious Barfield	51	2	0	0	3
Marcus Ratcliffe	51	2	0	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5
Tupu Alualu	27	4	3	4	0
Daniel Okpoko	25	5	2	5	3
Cooper McDonald	39	5	2	8	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Noah Tumblin	35	0	0	0	12
Dezjhon Malone	46	2	1	0	7
Zyrus Fiaseu	64	12	6	5	5