Vanderbilt at Wake Forest - 2023 Matchup Preview

Vanderbilt Commodores at Wake Forest Demon Deacons

Saturday, September 9th 2023 (11:00 AM EDT)
Wake Forest -9.5 (55.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Wake Forest 36 - Vanderbilt: 20

Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 19)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

WAKE 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Wake Forest -7.5 (SP+ WAKE -6)
Projected Score: VAN: 24 - WAKE: 31 (55)
WAKE Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
VAN Travel: 366 miles, 1 hrs behind

Demon Deacons (4 - 8) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Dave Clawson (62 - 53)
Avg Score : 28 - 22 (28 - 17 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 3.8 - 8.2 (#122)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
WAKE Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i	-17.0	54.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M	-35.0	53.5	W 47 - 13	O	N
Sat 9/9	Vanderbilt at Wake Forest	+9.5	55.0	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/16	Vanderbilt at UNLV	-4.5	56.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+13.5	50.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+14.0	53.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/7	Vanderbilt at Florida	+18.0	51.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/14	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+32.5	55.0	L 20 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+24.0	62.0	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/4	Vanderbilt vs Auburn	+12.5	50.0	L 15 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+13.5	53.5	L 6 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+27.0	58.0	L 24 - 48	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

Wake Forest's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Wake Forest vs Elon	-33.5	53.5	W 37 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/9	Wake Forest vs Vanderbilt	-9.5	55.0	W 36 - 20	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Wake Forest at Old Dominion	-13.5	60.0	W 27 - 24	U	N
Sat 9/23	Wake Forest vs Georgia Tech	-3.5	58.5	L 16 - 30	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/7	Wake Forest at Clemson	+21.0	53.5	L 12 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Wake Forest at Virginia Tech	+1.5	48.5	L 13 - 30	U	N
Sat 10/21	Wake Forest vs Pittsburgh	+3.0	45.0	W 21 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Wake Forest vs Florida State	+21.0	53.5	L 16 - 41	O	N
Thu 11/2	Wake Forest at Duke	+6.5	41.0	L 21 - 24	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Wake Forest vs NC State	-0.5	42.5	L 6 - 26	U	N
Sat 11/18	Wake Forest at Notre Dame	+22.5	47.5	L 7 - 45	O	N
Sat 11/25	Wake Forest at Syracuse	+3.0	43.5	L 31 - 35	O	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	.16	40%	38.5	40%	2.98	160	42%	187	3.73	.31	45%	22.8	42%	49%	4.14	46.1	1.3	1.8
WAKE	.24	47%	28.1	44%	2.97	132	51%	312	4.73	.2	43%	22.1	44%	43%	3.81	40.8	1.5	1.5

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
WAKE		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	12	38.5	33	40.3%	3.73	1.3	18	347	160	187	4.3	56%	43%	40%	42%	18%	.16
WAKE Defense	13	22.1	17.3	43.2%	3.81	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	44%	43%	17%	.2

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	12	22.8	23	45.5%	4.14	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	48%	52%	42%	49%	15%	.31
WAKE Offense	13	28.1	28.3	47.1%	4.73	1.5	25	444	132	312	3.4	45%	54%	44%	51%	16%	.24

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	12	31:36	17.5	37%	38%	5.3	46.1	1.3	1.8	4.7	1.4	0	28.8
Wake Forest	13	28:27	25.2	46%	50%	4.8	40.8	1.5	1.5	5.9	2.2	2	30.2

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	12	56%	40%	37.1	159.9	4.3	13	.1	2.98	73%	10%	1
WAKE Defense	13	47%	44%	-	-	-	-	.15	2.98	77%	10%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	12	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	.08	3.24	54%	9%	1.07
WAKE Offense	13	45%	44%	38.6	131.6	3.4	17	.03	2.97	73%	8%	0.72

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	12	43%	42%	16.7	28.8	187.3	6.5	11.2	22	6	.29	1.7	33%	27%	.32	8%	2.3
WAKE Defense	13	53%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.29	1.7	35%	34%	.45	7%	2.2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	12	52%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.55	1.7	29%	33%	.49	5%	2.3
WAKE Offense	13	54%	51%	23.2	36.5	311.9	8.6	13.4	43	13	.45	1.6	30%	37%	.43	7%	2

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -11.51 #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08 #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21 #124
2023 Talent Rating: 639.88 #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -11.51 Wake Forest: -4.95

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -13.7 Wake Forest: -7.5

Wake Forest's Power Ratings
Wake Forest's Power Rating: -4.95 #103
Wake Forest's Offense Rating: 9.55 #123
Wake Forest's Defense Rating: 10.54 #80
2023 Talent Rating: 603.68 #70
Blue Chip Ratio: 4 #63
Wake Forest's 2023 Expected Record: 3.80 - 8.20
Wake Forest's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5 #92
Wake Forest's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.5 #101
Wake Forest's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.7 #66

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 709.3
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0

Projected Score
Wake Forest 31
Vanderbilt 24

Projected Total Points: 55

Wake Forest Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 22.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.3

Wake Forest's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/09	Wake Forest	36	Vanderbilt	20	Wake Forest -9.5	Wake Forest	55.0	Over
2022	09/10	Vanderbilt	25	Wake Forest	45	Wake Forest -13.5	Wake Forest	65.5	Over
2013	11/30	Vanderbilt	23	Wake Forest	21	Vanderbilt -14	Wake Forest	0
2012	11/24	Wake Forest	21	Vanderbilt	55
2011	11/26	Wake Forest	7	Vanderbilt	41
2010	11/27	Vanderbilt	13	Wake Forest	34
2008	11/29	Wake Forest	23	Vanderbilt	10
2007	11/24	Vanderbilt	17	Wake Forest	31
2005	09/01	Wake Forest	20	Vanderbilt	24
2000	10/06	Wake Forest	10	Vanderbilt	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Wake Forest	5	3	2 Overs
Vanderbilt	5	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 7	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1
Road Teams	7 - 3	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 1

(#122) VAN at (#103) WAKE

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	WAKE
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#122	#103
SP+SP+	#113	#92
Perf GradeGrade	#129	#56
OffenseOff	#116	#63
DefenseDef	#126	#45
Spec TeamsST	#115	#44
TalentTal	#58	#70
Blue ChipsBC%	#57	#63

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Wake Forest Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	WAKE Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#116	#45
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#122	#80
SP+SP+	#84	#66
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	WAKE Def
Run GameRun	#104	#48
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#16

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	WAKE Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#62
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#72
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Wake Forest on Offense


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	VAN Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#63	#126
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#123	#124
SP+SP+	#101	#125
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Wake Forest Run Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#123	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#8	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#103

Wake Forest Pass Game


CategoryCat	WAKE Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#116	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#29	#124
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
WAKE 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in BB&T Field
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 2
Wake Forest -9.5 (55.0)
Wake Forest won vs Vanderbilt this year (36-20)

Previous Matchups
Wake Forest beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (36-20)

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann	106	196	54%	1418	12	7	7.2
Ken Seals	106	179	59%	1218	11	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	96	370	4	3.9	27
Patrick Smith	79	327	2	4.1	40
Jayden McGowan	19	108	0	5.7	18
Walter Taylor	30	102	1	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Sheppard	47	684	8	14.6	85
London Humphreys	22	439	4	20.0	56
Jayden McGowan	36	383	0	10.6	50
Junior Sherrill	20	293	3	14.7	52

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Patterson	74	8	1	2	0
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	0	0	6
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Ethan Barr	54	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Clifton	30	8	6	4	1
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)	33	6	3	3	0
Kane Patterson	43	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	6
Trudell Berry	21	1	4
BJ Anderson	8	0	3

WAKE's OC Warren Ruggiero (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Mitch Griffis	123	207	59%	1539	9	8	7.4
Michael Kern	56	92	61%	645	4	2	7.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Demond Claiborne	137	586	5	4.3	42
Justice Ellison	120	548	1	4.6	51
Tate Carney	49	244	4	5.0	74
Mitch Griffis	106	128	2	1.2	27

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jahmal Banks	59	653	4	11.1	33
Taylor Morin	41	617	2	15.0	61
Ke'Shawn Williams	38	384	1	10.1	34
Wesley Grimes	20	339	4	17.0	49

View Wake Forest's Full Roster

WAKE's DC Brad Lambert (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dylan Hazen	86	9	1	3	0
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Malik Mustapha	80	5	1	1	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jasheen Davis	49	16	8	10	2
Jacob Roberts (Tr)	82	10	6	3	1
Kendron Wayman	35	4	2	4	2
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Caelen Carson	42	1	0	0	6
Chelen Garnes	61	2	2	0	5
Nick Andersen	33	1	1	1	3