Colorado State at Colorado - 2023 Matchup Preview
Colorado State logo Colorado State Rams at Colorado BuffaloesColorado logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (10:00 PM EDT)
Colorado -23 (63.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Colorado 43 - Colorado State: 35

 
Rams (5 - 7) (4 - 7 - 0)
Coach Jay Norvell (3 - 11)
Avg Score : 26 - 30 (25 - 31 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.7 - 5.3 (#63)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
COLO 2nd straight Home Game
CSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Colorado -5.5  (SP+ COLO -4)
Projected Score: CSU: 27 - COLO: 33 (60)
COLO Win prob: 95% | Cover: 56%
CSU Travel: 40 miles
Buffaloes (4 - 8) (7 - 4 - 1)
Coach Deion Sanders (3 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 35 (36 - 34 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.5 - 7.5 (#110)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Colorado State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Colorado State vs Washington State+9.554.0L 24 - 50ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16 Colorado State at Colorado+23.063.0L 35 - 43OY
Sat 9/23 Colorado State at Middle Tennessee+3.550.0W 31 - 23OY
Sat 9/30 Colorado State vs Utah Tech-19
Sat 10/7 Colorado State at Utah State-3.062.0L 24 - 44ON
Sat 10/14 Colorado State vs Boise State+7.560.0W 31 - 30OY
Sat 10/21 Colorado State at UNLV+6.560.0L 23 - 25UY
Sat 10/28 Colorado State vs Air Force+14.547.0L 13 - 30UN
Fri 11/3 Colorado State at Wyoming+6.041.0L 15 - 24UN
Sat 11/11 Colorado State vs San Diego State-3.546.5W 22 - 19UN
Sat 11/18 Colorado State vs Nevada-12.545.5W 30 - 20ON
Sat 11/25 Colorado State at Hawai'i-6.054.0L 24 - 27UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado State's Schedule
Colorado's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Colorado at TCU+20.559.5W 45 - 42OY
Sat 9/9 Colorado vs Nebraska-2.556.5W 36 - 14UY
Sat 9/16 Colorado vs Colorado State-23.063.0W 43 - 35ON
Sat 9/23 Colorado at Oregon+21.070.0L 6 - 42UN
Sat 9/30 Colorado vs USC+22.074.5L 41 - 48OY
Sat 10/7 Colorado at Arizona State-3.058.0W 27 - 24UN
Fri 10/13 Colorado vs Stanford-13.059.0L 43 - 46ON
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Colorado at UCLA+14.060.0L 16 - 28UY
Sat 11/4 Colorado vs Oregon State+13.060.5L 19 - 26UY
Sat 11/11 Colorado vs Arizona+6.055.5L 31 - 34OY
Fri 11/17 Colorado at Washington State+4.559.5L 14 - 56ON
Sat 11/25 Colorado at Utah+21.543.5L 17 - 23UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Colorado's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#81 (.17)42% (74)26.139% (118)2.7 (124)9345% (38)3073.66 (86)#65 (.18)43% (80)29.642% (61)44% (107)3.4 (31)69.82.11.6
COLO#58 (.21)41% (77)28.236% (127)3.08 (75)6944% (45)2954.24 (33)#123 (.3)47% (128)34.848% (115)48% (128)4.29 (113)71.20.91.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
CSU#90 (.16)42% (76)43% (80)2.88 (96)16241% (81)1923.56 (98)#61 (.16)42% (78)42% (59)43% (94)4 (88)47.31.21.5
COLO#35 (.24)44% (48)44% (73)2.76 (110)6645% (34)3024.34 (28)#22 (.09)38% (30)40% (43)36% (17)3.3 (21)62.80.91.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Offense1226.125.341.6%3.662.121399933073.439%59%39%45%16%.17
COLO Defense1234.833.847.4%4.291.8 - - - - - 48%51%48%48%16%.3
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
CSU Defense1229.63142.9%3.41.6 - - - - - 52%47%42%44%16%.18
COLO Offense1228.235.541.4%4.240.921364692952.335%65%36%44%17%.21

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Colorado State1226:3420.641%42%7.669.82.11.67.22.8226.1
Colorado1227:3421.238%67%8.971.20.91.85.52.3128.7
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Offense1239% (126)39% (118)27.792.83.410 (124)-.02 (130)2.7 (124)69% (102)7% (15)0.72 (133)
COLO Defense1248% (45)48% (115) - - - - .24 (114)3.14 (78)88% (130)10% (68)1.03 (87)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
CSU Defense1252% (102)42% (61) - - - - .11 (47)3.05 (55)75% (82)12% (24)1.04 (90)
COLO Offense1235% (131)36% (127)29.868.92.312 (116)-.01 (127)3.08 (75)73% (76)12% (111)0.94 (98)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Offense1259% (9)45% (38)25.941.8306.57.311.824 (41)18 (128).35 (43)1.5 (100)33% (86)29% (81).31 (74)8% (124)2 (105)
COLO Defense1251% (95)48% (128) - - - - - - 10 (67).39 (116)1.5 (49)30% (99)39% (131).51 (128)6% (84)2 (66)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
CSU Defense1247% (31)44% (107) - - - - - - 9 (87).29 (87)1.4 (10)32% (69)30% (69).3 (60)4% (126)2.1 (79)
COLO Offense1265% (1)44% (45)26.939.5294.77.51129 (18)4 (2).32 (53)1.5 (87)34% (106)34% (34).52 (15)5% (40)2.2 (22)

Colorado State's Power Ratings
Colorado State's Power Rating: -3.44  #83
Colorado State's Offense Rating: 15.50  #78
Colorado State's Defense Rating: 9.05  #62
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #75
Colorado State's 2023 Expected Record: 6.70 - 5.30
Colorado State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.1  #99
Colorado State's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #93
Colorado State's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.9  #101

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -3.44   Colorado: -1

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Colorado State: -9.1   Colorado: -5.4




Colorado's Power Ratings
Colorado's Power Rating: -1  #73
Colorado's Offense Rating: 18.51  #50
Colorado's Defense Rating: 15.48  #121
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 10  #49
Colorado's 2023 Expected Record: 4.50 - 7.50
Colorado's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -5.4  #83
Colorado's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7  #45
Colorado's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.9  #116

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Colorado State Scoring
Offense: 26.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 25.3
Defense: 29.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 31

Colorado State's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record on Road: 1 - 5
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0
Projected Score
Colorado 33
Colorado State 27

Total Points: 60

Based on Last 4 Games
Colorado State 28
Colorado 25

Total Points: 53

Based on Entire Season
Colorado 31
Colorado State 30

Total Points: 61
Colorado Scoring
Offense: 28.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 35.5
Defense: 34.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 33.8

Colorado's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 6 - 6
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202409/14Colorado State9Colorado28Colorado -7.5Colorado58.5Under
202309/16Colorado43Colorado State35Colorado -23Colorado State63.0Over
201908/30Colorado52Colorado State31Colorado -12Colorado55.0Over
201808/31Colorado State13Colorado45Colorado -7Colorado65.5Under
201709/01Colorado17Colorado State3Colorado -3Colorado69.5Under
201609/02Colorado44Colorado State7Colorado -10Colorado56.0Under
201509/19Colorado State24Colorado27Colorado State -1Colorado56.5Under
201408/29Colorado17Colorado State31Colorado -3Colorado State0
201309/01Colorado State27Colorado41Colorado -1.5Colorado0
201209/01Colorado17Colorado State22
201109/17Colorado28Colorado State14
201009/04Colorado State3Colorado24
200909/06Colorado17Colorado State23
200808/31Colorado38Colorado State17
200709/01Colorado31Colorado State28
200609/09Colorado State14Colorado10
200509/03Colorado31Colorado State28
200409/04Colorado27Colorado State24
200308/30Colorado State35Colorado42
200208/31Colorado14Colorado State19
200109/01Colorado State14Colorado41
200009/01Colorado State28Colorado24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Colorado1672 Overs
Colorado State625 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams11 - 113 - 63 - 30 - 3
Road Teams11 - 116 - 33 - 03 - 3

(#83) CSU at (#73) COLO
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatCSUCOLO
Power RatePwr #83 #73
SP+SP+ #99 #83
Perf GradeGrade #84 #106
OffenseOff #84 #82
DefenseDef #78 #122
Spec TeamsST #114 #121
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #75 #49
Colorado State on Offense
CategoryCat
CSU OffCOLO Def
Perf GradePerf #84 #122
SuccessSuc #74 #128
ExplosiveExp #99 #73
PPAPPA #81 #123
PowerPwr #78 #121
SP+SP+ #93 #116
Pts POPPO #86 #113
HavocHav #65 #82
Colorado State Run Game
CategoryCat
CSU OffCOLO Def
Run GameRun #129 #125
Run SuccessRSuc #118 #115
Run ExplRExp #133 #87
PPAExp #130 #114
Run BlockR Blk #41 -
OL YdsOLY #124 #78
Stuff RateStuff #114 #68
TackleTak -  #95
Colorado State Pass Game
CategoryCat
CSU OffCOLO Def
Pass GamePass #101 #101
Pass SuccessPSuc #38 #128
Pass ExplPExl #100 #49
PPAExp #43 #116
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #59 #96
F7 HavocF7 #15 #68
DB HavocDB #124 #84
Colorado on Offense
CategoryCatCOLO OffCSU Def
Perf GradePerf #82 #78
SuccessSuc #77 #80
ExplosiveExp #30 #31
PPAPPA #58 #65
PowerPwr #50 #62
SP+SP+ #45 #101
Pts POPPO #33 #31
HavocHav #90 #70
Colorado Run Game
CategoryCat
COLO OffCSU Def
Run GameRun #135 #99
Run SuccessRSuc #127 #61
Run ExplRExp #98 #90
PPAExp #127 #47
Run BlockR Blk #82 -
OL YdsOLY #75 #55
Stuff RateStuff #44 #47
TackleTak -  #58
Colorado Pass Game
CategoryCatCOLO OffCSU Def
Pass GamePass #10 #72
Pass SuccessPSuc #45 #107
Pass ExplPExl #87 #10
PPAExp #53 #87
Pass Block/RushP Blk #70 #23
F7 HavocF7 #111 #24
DB HavocDB #40 #126
Program Comparison
COLO 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Remains Average G5

CSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Up to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Folsom Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 64° - Wind: 7 mph
Rematch from Week 3
Colorado -23.0 (63.0)
Colorado won vs Colorado State this year (43-35)

Previous Matchups
Colorado beat Colorado State last year (28-9)
Colorado beat Colorado State in 2023 (43-35)

  
CSU's OC Matt Mumme (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi29247062%346022167.4
Clay Millen152463%110014.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Vann Schield9038934.352
Justin Marshall5731125.521
Avery Morrow8126223.213
Kobe Johnson4412812.913
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Tory Horton961136811.876
Dallin Holker (Tr)64767612.042
Justus Ross-Simmons45724316.175
Louis Brown47481510.246

View Colorado State's Full Roster

CSU's DC Freddie Banks (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Chase Wilson1079413
Justin Sanchez874123
Henry Blackburn757310
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mohamed Kamara551612101
Marshon Oxley266410
Chase Wilson1079413
Tony Pierce Jr.315320
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jack Howell1141033
Dom Jones320003
Justin Sanchez874123

COLO's OC Sean Lewis (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Shedeur Sanders (Tr)29843069%32302737.5
Ryan Staub234058%254106.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Dylan Edwards7632114.234
Anthony Hankerson7831914.120
Sy'veon Wilkerson (Tr)5319033.611
Alton McCaskill (Tr)145904.29
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Xavier Weaver (Tr)68908413.448
Travis Hunter (Tr)57721512.647
Jimmy Horn Jr. (Tr)5856769.845
Dylan Edwards3629948.375

View Colorado's Full Roster

COLO's DC Charles Kelly (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
LaVonta Bentley6911542
Shilo Sanders (Tr)671013
Trevor Woods561123
Rodrick Ward (Tr)521002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
LaVonta Bentley6911542
Jordan Domineck (Tr)5112542
Amari McNeill (Tr)317311
Leonard Payne Jr.103331
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Travis Hunter (Tr)312005
Omarion Cooper (Tr)372105
Trevor Woods561123