Michigan State at Iowa - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -10 (36.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa 26 - Michigan State: 16 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 25 - 30 (22 - 33 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IOWA is playing their 5th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -12.5 (SP+ IOWA -15)
Projected Score: MSU: 15 - IOWA: 28 (43)
IOWA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 29 - 16 (28 - 14 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
IOWA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.14	40%	24.6	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	29.9	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3
IOWA		36%	29.3	38%	2.45	95	35%	157	2.76	-.05	34%	16.1	38%	32%	2.75	32.3	1.3	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IOWA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	24.6	21.6	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14
IOWA Defense	13	16.1	13.7	34.4%	2.75	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	38%	32%	17%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	29.9	32.8	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26
IOWA Offense	13	29.3	28.3	35.8%	2.76	1.3	14	252	95	157	2.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	18%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1
Iowa	13	28:16	13.8	28%	33%	4.1	32.3	1.3	2.2	6.1	2.6	4	31.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96
IOWA Defense	13	49%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.57	74%	11%	0.76

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96
IOWA Offense	13	49%	38%	32.5	94.9	2.9	12	-.05	2.45	63%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2
IOWA Defense	13	49%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	-.01	1.4	34%	22%	-.02	6%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1
IOWA Offense	13	51%	35%	14.8	26.8	156.7	5.8	10.6	7	7	.06	1.5	36%	22%	.08	5%	2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 747.34 #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Iowa: 6.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Iowa: 8.1

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 692.62 #41
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 750.28
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 24.6 PPG
Offense on Road: 21.6
Defense: 29.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 28
Michigan State 15

Projected Total Points: 43

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 29.3 PPG
Offense at Home: 28.3
Defense: 16.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.7

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Over/Under Record: 2 - 12
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/22	Iowa	20	Michigan State	17	Iowa -17.5	Michigan State	43.0	Under
2024	10/19	Michigan State	32	Iowa	20	Iowa -7	Michigan State	39.5	Over
2023	09/30	Iowa	26	Michigan State	16	Iowa -10	Push	36.5	Over
2020	11/07	Iowa	49	Michigan State	7	Iowa -5.5	Iowa	46.0	Over
2017	09/30	Michigan State	17	Iowa	10	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	44.5	Under
2015	12/05	Iowa	13	Michigan State	16	Michigan State -4	Iowa	50.0	Under
2013	10/05	Iowa	14	Michigan State	26	Iowa -2	Michigan State	0
2012	10/13	Michigan State	16	Iowa	19
2011	11/12	Iowa	21	Michigan State	37
2010	10/30	Iowa	37	Michigan State	6
2009	10/24	Michigan State	13	Iowa	15
2008	10/04	Michigan State	16	Iowa	13
2007	10/27	Iowa	34	Michigan State	27
2004	10/02	Iowa	38	Michigan State	16
2003	09/27	Michigan State	20	Iowa	10
2002	10/12	Iowa	44	Michigan State	16
2001	10/13	Michigan State	31	Iowa	28
2000	10/06	Iowa	21	Michigan State	16

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa	10	2	3 Overs
Michigan State	8	4	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	13 - 5	4 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 13	2 - 4	0 - 2	2 - 2

(#92) MSU at (#61) IOWA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MSU	IOWA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#92	#61
SP+SP+	#86	#36
Perf GradeGrade	#124	#53
OffenseOff	#125	#134
DefenseDef	#115	#4
Spec TeamsST	#68	#5
TalentTal	#27	#41
Blue ChipsBC%	#34	#38

Michigan State Injury Report

Iowa Injury Report

Michigan State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IOWA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#125	#4
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#127	#3
SP+SP+	#122	#2
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Michigan State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IOWA Def
Run GameRun	#122	#1
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#73	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#3

Michigan State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSU Off	IOWA Def
Pass GamePass	#130	#2
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#113	#42
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Iowa on Offense


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#134	#115
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	#133	#82
SP+SP+	#127	#47
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Iowa Run Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MSU Def
Run GameRun	#134	#56
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#74

Iowa Pass Game


CategoryCat	IOWA Off	MSU Def
Pass GamePass	#135	#133
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#98	#70
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
IOWA 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average P4
'23 Profile: Remains Average P4

MSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'23 Profile: Down to Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Iowa -10.0 (36.5)
Iowa won vs Michigan State this year (26-16)

Previous Matchups
Iowa beat Michigan State last year (20-17)
Michigan State beat Iowa in 2024 (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

MSU's OC Jay Johnson (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Katin Houser	113	193	59%	1098	6	5	5.7
Noah Kim	91	160	57%	1090	6	6	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)	186	792	4	4.3	44
Jalen Berger	25	93	1	3.7	12
Jaren Mangham (Tr)	30	71	0	2.4	8
Sam Leavitt	13	67	0	5.2	22

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	43	575	3	13.4	42
Maliq Carr	32	335	3	10.5	36
Tre Mosley	28	288	2	10.3	30
Jaron Glover	14	261	0	18.6	33

View Michigan State's Full Roster

MSU's DC Scottie Hazelton (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	91	6	1	1	0
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Aaron Brule	64	9	5	1	2
Jordan Hall	67	8	5	0	1
Simeon Barrow Jr.	36	6	4	7	0
Brandon Wright	19	2	2	5	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Dillon Tatum	45	3	0	1	7
Malik Spencer	72	2	0	1	6
Angelo Grose	72	3	1	0	5

IOWA's OC Brian Ferentz (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Deacon Hill (Tr)	122	251	49%	1152	5	8	4.6
Cade McNamara (Tr)	46	90	51%	505	4	3	5.6

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Leshon Williams	170	821	1	4.8	82
Kaleb Johnson	117	463	3	4.0	67
Jaziun Patterson	58	206	2	3.6	59
Kamari Moulton	27	93	2	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Erick All (Tr)	21	299	3	14.2	34
Nico Ragaini	31	255	0	8.2	29
Kaleb Brown	22	215	1	9.8	31
Addison Ostrenga	31	192	2	6.2	19

View Iowa's Full Roster

IOWA's DC Phil Parker (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	171	5	2	3	3
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Quinn Schulte	65	3	0	0	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	110	8	4	7	2
Yahya Black	50	5	4	2	4
Logan Lee	55	6	3	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jermari Harris	42	1	0	0	8
Sebastian Castro	67	8	0	1	8
Joe Evans	46	14	9	10	5