Michigan State at Iowa - 2023 Matchup Preview
Michigan State logo Michigan State Spartans at Iowa HawkeyesIowa logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -10 (36.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Iowa 26 - Michigan State: 16  (Big Ten)

 
Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 16 - 28 (16 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
IOWA is playing their 5th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -12.5   (SP+ IOWA -15)

Projected Score: MSU: 12 - IOWA: 25 (37)
IOWA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 15 - 15 (23 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/1 Michigan State vs Central Michigan-14.045.0W 31 - 7UY
Sat 9/9 Michigan State vs Richmond-29.543.5W 45 - 14OY
Sat 9/16 Michigan State vs Washington+14.557.0L 7 - 41UN
Sat 9/23 Michigan State vs Maryland+7.052.5L 9 - 31UN
Sat 9/30 Michigan State at Iowa+10.036.5L 16 - 26OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Michigan State at Rutgers+4.038.5L 24 - 27OY
Sat 10/21 Michigan State vs Michigan+25.547.0L 0 - 49ON
Sat 10/28 Michigan State at Minnesota+6.541.5L 12 - 27UN
Sat 11/4 Michigan State vs Nebraska+3.034.5W 20 - 17OY
Sat 11/11 Michigan State at Ohio State+30.548.5L 3 - 38UN
Sat 11/18 Michigan State at Indiana+3.547.5W 24 - 21UY
Fri 11/24 Michigan State vs Penn State+20.042.0L 0 - 42UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule
Iowa's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Iowa vs Utah State-24.043.5W 24 - 14UN
Sat 9/9 Iowa at Iowa State-3.535.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 9/16 Iowa vs Western Michigan-28.543.5W 41 - 10OY
Sat 9/23 Iowa at Penn State+14.038.5L 0 - 31UN
Sat 9/30 Iowa vs Michigan State-10.036.5W 26 - 16ON
Sat 10/7 Iowa vs Purdue-2.538.5W 20 - 14UY
Sat 10/14 Iowa at Wisconsin+8.033.5W 15 - 6UY
Sat 10/21 Iowa vs Minnesota-3.030.5L 10 - 12UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Iowa vs Northwestern-4.530.5W 10 - 7UN
Sat 11/11 Iowa vs Rutgers+2.527.5W 22 - 0UY
Sat 11/18 Iowa vs Illinois-2.533.5W 15 - 13UN
Fri 11/24 Iowa at Nebraska+3.025.5W 13 - 10UY
Sat 12/2 Iowa vs Michigan+23.535.0L 0 - 26UN
Mon 1/1 Iowa vs Tennessee+4.537.0L 0 - 35UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Iowa's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#131 (.03)38% (115)15.938% (122)2.84 (114)8938% (99)1972.97 (125)#75 (.19)44% (95)28.345% (85)44% (105)3.89 (76)591.81.3
IOWA#133 (-.04)33% (133)15.433% (131)2.47 (132)10934% (124)1142.86 (126)#2 (-.01)34% (5)14.835% (11)34% (6)2.65 (4)281.41.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MSU#105 (.13)42% (86)45% (50)2.76 (109)11838% (107)2183.34 (116)#85 (.19)42% (69)39% (25)45% (111)4.06 (98)63.31.60.9
IOWA#100 (.14)42% (72)44% (63)2.92 (89)18540% (94)1213.77 (84)#30 (.11)42% (72)46% (97)39% (51)3.37 (27)26.30.81.8



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Offense1215.915.837.6%2.971.817286891972.945%54%38%38%19%.03
IOWA Defense1414.811.334.2%2.651.1 - - - - - 45%53%35%34%16%-.01
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MSU Defense1228.327.843.9%3.891.3 - - - - - 48%51%45%44%16%.19
IOWA Offense1415.422.632.9%2.861.4122231091143.456%43%33%34%19%-.04

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Michigan State1228:0516.530%50%6.8591.81.35.62.5027.6
Iowa1426:2912.131%50%3.3281.41.14.91.9231.2
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Offense1245% (104)38% (122)30.988.72.97 (131)-.03 (131)2.84 (114)76% (50)12% (119)0.85 (124)
IOWA Defense1445% (17)35% (11) - - - - -.05 (5)2.8 (21)71% (53)9% (88)0.72 (1)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MSU Defense1248% (48)45% (85) - - - - .16 (83)3.28 (106)87% (128)10% (72)0.93 (35)
IOWA Offense1456% (23)33% (131)32.1108.73.411 (123)-.08 (133)2.47 (132)66% (113)12% (105)0.82 (129)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Offense1254% (33)38% (99)18.531.8197.26.210.714 (106)13 (97).17 (101)1.4 (121)35% (113)26% (107).16 (115)7% (105)2 (97)
IOWA Defense1453% (113)34% (6) - - - - - - 10 (67).08 (5)1.4 (8)37% (8)25% (13).12 (3)7% (36)1.7 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MSU Defense1251% (85)44% (105) - - - - - - 9 (87).28 (78)1.5 (26)29% (116)32% (92).36 (92)6% (66)2 (58)
IOWA Offense1443% (113)34% (124)11.523.1114.459.99 (126)9 (40).08 (125)1.4 (124)34% (99)21% (131).05 (133)7% (112)1.7 (128)

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38   Iowa: 6.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9   Iowa: 8.1




Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 15.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 15.8
Defense: 28.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Iowa 25
Michigan State 12


Total Points: 37

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 15.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.6
Defense: 14.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.3

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Michigan State32Iowa20Michigan StateIowa -7Michigan State39.5Over
202309/30Iowa26Michigan State16IowaIowa -10Push36.5Over
202011/07Iowa49Michigan State7IowaIowa -5.5Iowa46.0Over
201709/30Michigan State17Iowa10Michigan StateMichigan State -3.5Michigan State44.5Under
201512/05Iowa13Michigan State16Michigan StateMichigan State -4Iowa50.0Under
201310/05Iowa14Michigan State26Michigan StateIowa -2Michigan State0
201210/13Michigan State16Iowa19Iowa
201111/12Iowa21Michigan State37Michigan State
201010/30Iowa37Michigan State6Iowa
200910/24Michigan State13Iowa15Iowa
200810/04Michigan State16Iowa13Michigan State
200710/27Iowa34Michigan State27Iowa
200410/02Iowa38Michigan State16Iowa
200309/27Michigan State20Iowa10Michigan State
200210/12Iowa44Michigan State16Iowa
200110/13Michigan State31Iowa28Michigan State
200010/06Iowa21Michigan State16Iowa
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Iowa923 Overs
Michigan State832 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 54 - 12 - 12 - 0
Road Teams5 - 121 - 40 - 21 - 2

(#92) Michigan State Info
Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90


Michigan State has lost 2 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 4 (2 - 2 - 1 vs Spread )

Michigan State Highlights
Michigan State defense does not give up big plays (#31)

Michigan State Deficiencies
Michigan State has a really bad Offense
Michigan State has a bad TO Margin (#82)
Michigan State Can Not Run the Ball (#59)
Michigan State offense is really bad (#93)
Michigan State offense is not Explosive (#95)
Michigan State Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#127)
Michigan State offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#56)
Michigan State run game is really bad (#96)
Michigan State offense is bad on 3rd Downs
Michigan State Does Not Stuff Runs (#10)
Michigan State has a bad defensive line (#5)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatIOWAMSU
OverallOver#42#103
OffenseOff#115#107
DefenseDef#4#88
Special TeamsST#5#54
PassingPass#115#110
RushingRush#99#88
Run BlockRBLK#57#58
Pass BlockPBLK#83#97
Route RunningWR Rt#115#75
TacklingTkl#3#64
Run DefenseR Def#1#50
Pass Rush DefPRush#36#54
Coverage DefCov#2#112

Rematch from Week 5
Iowa -10.0 (36.5)
Iowa won vs Michigan State this year (26-16)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | IOWA
Depth Chart: MSU | IOWA
Rosters: MSU | IOWA
(#61) Iowa Info
Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40


Iowa has lost 1 straight
Iowa has won 2 straight at Home
Record at home: 6 - 1 (3 - 3 - 1 vs Spread)

Iowa Highlights
Iowa has a really good defense (#30)
Iowa defense does not give up big plays (#5)
Iowa defense is really good in red zone (#76)
Iowa has a good run defense (#31)
Iowa has a good pass defense (#40)
Iowa Defensive Line is very good (#74)
Iowa commits very few Penalties (#1)

Iowa Deficiencies
Iowa has a really bad Offense
Iowa Fumbles a Lot (#42)
Iowa Can Not Run the Ball (#24)
Iowa offense is really bad (#45)
Iowa offense is not Explosive (#130)
Iowa Runs Get Stuffed a Lot (#1)
Iowa offense is bad in Scoring Opportunities (#35)
Iowa run game is really bad (#23)
Iowa pass game is really bad (#114)
Iowa offense is bad on 3rd Downs


  
Michigan State's OC Jay Johnson
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Katin Houser11319359%1098655.7
Noah Kim9116057%1090666.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Nathan Carter (Tr)18679244.344
Jalen Berger259313.712
Jaren Mangham (Tr)307102.48
Sam Leavitt136705.222
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Montorie Foster43575313.442
Maliq Carr32335310.536
Tre Mosley28288210.330
Jaron Glover14261018.633

View Michigan State's Full Roster
Michigan State's DC Scottie Hazelton
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Cal Haladay916110
Angelo Grose723105
Malik Spencer722016
Jordan Hall678501
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Aaron Brule649512
Jordan Hall678501
Simeon Barrow Jr.366470
Brandon Wright192251
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dillon Tatum453017
Malik Spencer722016
Angelo Grose723105

Iowa's OC Brian Ferentz
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Deacon Hill (Tr)12225149%1152584.6
Cade McNamara (Tr)469051%505435.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Leshon Williams17082114.882
Kaleb Johnson11746334.067
Jaziun Patterson5820623.659
Kamari Moulton279323.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Erick All (Tr)21299314.234
Nico Ragaini3125508.229
Kaleb Brown2221519.831
Addison Ostrenga3119226.219

View Iowa's Full Roster
Iowa's DC Phil Parker
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jay Higgins1715233
Nick Jackson (Tr)1108472
Sebastian Castro678018
Quinn Schulte653004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joe Evans46149105
Nick Jackson (Tr)1108472
Yahya Black505424
Logan Lee556313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jermari Harris421008
Sebastian Castro678018
Joe Evans46149105