Michigan State at Iowa - 2023 Matchup Preview

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (7:30 PM EDT)
Iowa -10 (36.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Iowa 26 - Michigan State: 16 (Big Ten)

Spartans (4 - 8) (5 - 6 - 1)
Coach Harlon Barnett (Int) (0 - 1)
Avg Score : 19 - 26 (18 - 28 on Road)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#114)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

IOWA is playing their 5th straight game
MSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Iowa -12.5 (SP+ IOWA -15)
Projected Score: MSU: 14 - IOWA: 27 (46)
IOWA Win prob: 77% | Cover: 50%
MSU Travel: 369 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Hawkeyes (10 - 4) (6 - 7 - 1)
Coach Kirk Ferentz (189 - 115)
Avg Score : 28 - 18 (33 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.6 - 7.4 (#66)
'25 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MSU Players
IOWA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Michigan State's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/1	Michigan State vs Central Michigan	-14.0	45.0	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Michigan State vs Richmond	-29.5	43.5	W 45 - 14	O	Y
Sat 9/16	Michigan State vs Washington	+14.5	57.0	L 7 - 41	U	N
Sat 9/23	Michigan State vs Maryland	+7.0	52.5	L 9 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Michigan State at Iowa	+10.0	36.5	L 16 - 26	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	Michigan State at Rutgers	+4.0	38.5	L 24 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Michigan State vs Michigan	+25.5	47.0	L 0 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/28	Michigan State at Minnesota	+6.5	41.5	L 12 - 27	U	N
Sat 11/4	Michigan State vs Nebraska	+3.0	34.5	W 20 - 17	O	Y
Sat 11/11	Michigan State at Ohio State	+30.5	48.5	L 3 - 38	U	N
Sat 11/18	Michigan State at Indiana	+3.5	47.5	W 24 - 21	U	Y
Fri 11/24	Michigan State vs Penn State	+20.0	42.0	L 0 - 42	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan State's Schedule

Iowa's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Iowa vs Utah State	-24.0	43.5	W 24 - 14	U	N
Sat 9/9	Iowa at Iowa State	-3.5	35.5	W 20 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/16	Iowa vs Western Michigan	-28.5	43.5	W 41 - 10	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Iowa at Penn State	+14.0	38.5	L 0 - 31	U	N
Sat 9/30	Iowa vs Michigan State	-10.0	36.5	W 26 - 16	O	N
Sat 10/7	Iowa vs Purdue	-2.5	38.5	W 20 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Iowa at Wisconsin	+8.0	33.5	W 15 - 6	U	Y
Sat 10/21	Iowa vs Minnesota	-3.0	30.5	L 10 - 12	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Iowa vs Northwestern	-4.5	30.5	W 10 - 7	U	N
Sat 11/11	Iowa vs Rutgers	+2.5	27.5	W 22 - 0	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Iowa vs Illinois	-2.5	33.5	W 15 - 13	U	N
Fri 11/24	Iowa at Nebraska	+3.0	25.5	W 13 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/2	Iowa vs Michigan	+23.5	35.0	L 0 - 26	U	N
Mon 1/1	Iowa vs Tennessee	+4.5	37.0	L 0 - 35	U	N

Important Stats (2022)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU	.14	40%	19.3	39%	2.7	113	42%	240	3.77	.26	46%	26.1	43%	49%	3.81	54.5	1.3	1.3
IOWA		36%	27.7	38%	2.45	95	35%	157	2.76	-.05	34%	17.8	38%	32%	2.75	32.3	1.3	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
IOWA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2022

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Offense	12	19.3	17.8	39.9%	3.77	1.3	20	353	113	240	3.8	44%	55%	39%	42%	16%	.14
IOWA Defense	13	17.8	13	34.4%	2.75	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	38%	32%	17%	-.05

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MSU Defense	12	26.1	28	45.8%	3.81	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	54%	46%	43%	49%	15%	.26
IOWA Offense	13	27.7	33.1	35.8%	2.76	1.3	14	252	95	157	2.9	49%	51%	38%	35%	18%

Additional Stats 2022

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Michigan State	12	26:12	20.1	39%	43%	5.8	54.5	1.3	1.3	6.3	2.4	1	28.1
Iowa	13	28:16	13.8	28%	33%	4.1	32.3	1.3	2.2	6.1	2.6	4	31.9

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Offense	12	44%	39%	30.1	113	3.8	16	.05	2.7	63%	9%	0.96
IOWA Defense	13	49%	38%	-	-	-	-	-.02	2.57	74%	11%	0.76

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MSU Defense	12	54%	43%	-	-	-	-	.11	3.04	63%	11%	0.96
IOWA Offense	13	49%	38%	32.5	94.9	2.9	12	-.05	2.45	63%	13%	0.84

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Offense	12	55%	42%	21.5	34.3	240	7	11.2	23	12	.24	1.5	32%	31%	.28	7%	2
IOWA Defense	13	49%	32%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	-.01	1.4	34%	22%	-.02	6%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MSU Defense	12	46%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	.45	1.6	29%	35%	.48	4%	2.1
IOWA Offense	13	51%	35%	14.8	26.8	156.7	5.8	10.6	7	7	.06	1.5	36%	22%	.08	5%	2

Michigan State's Power Ratings
Michigan State's Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Michigan State's Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Michigan State's Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
2023 Talent Rating: 756.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Michigan State's 2023 Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90
Michigan State's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Michigan State's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Michigan State's Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Power Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -5.38 Iowa: 6.51

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Michigan State: -6.9 Iowa: 8.1

Iowa's Power Ratings
Iowa's Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Iowa's Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Iowa's Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
2023 Talent Rating: 838.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Iowa's 2023 Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40
Iowa's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Iowa's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Iowa's Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 821.44
Average Power Five Talent: 811.88
Average FBS Talent: 636.78

Michigan State Scoring
Offense: 19.3 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.8
Defense: 26.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 28

Michigan State's 2023 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 1
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 3 - 6 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Iowa 27
Michigan State 14

Projected Total Points: 46

Iowa Scoring
Offense: 27.7 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.1
Defense: 17.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 13

Iowa's 2023 Record
Record: 10 - 4
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 1
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Fav vs Spread: 3 - 3 - 1
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 1

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Winner	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	10/19	Michigan State	32	Iowa	20	Michigan State	Iowa -7	Michigan State	39.5	Over
2023	09/30	Iowa	26	Michigan State	16	Iowa	Iowa -10	Push	36.5	Over
2020	11/07	Iowa	49	Michigan State	7	Iowa	Iowa -5.5	Iowa	46.0	Over
2017	09/30	Michigan State	17	Iowa	10	Michigan State	Michigan State -3.5	Michigan State	44.5	Under
2015	12/05	Iowa	13	Michigan State	16	Michigan State	Michigan State -4	Iowa	50.0	Under
2013	10/05	Iowa	14	Michigan State	26	Michigan State	Iowa -2	Michigan State	0
2012	10/13	Michigan State	16	Iowa	19	Iowa
2011	11/12	Iowa	21	Michigan State	37	Michigan State
2010	10/30	Iowa	37	Michigan State	6	Iowa
2009	10/24	Michigan State	13	Iowa	15	Iowa
2008	10/04	Michigan State	16	Iowa	13	Michigan State
2007	10/27	Iowa	34	Michigan State	27	Iowa
2004	10/02	Iowa	38	Michigan State	16	Iowa
2003	09/27	Michigan State	20	Iowa	10	Michigan State
2002	10/12	Iowa	44	Michigan State	16	Iowa
2001	10/13	Michigan State	31	Iowa	28	Michigan State
2000	10/06	Iowa	21	Michigan State	16	Iowa

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Iowa	9	2	3 Overs
Michigan State	8	3	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 5	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 0
Road Teams	5 - 12	1 - 4	0 - 2	1 - 2

(#92) Michigan State Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: -5.38 #92
Offense Rating: 8.07 #127
Defense Rating: 10.68 #82
Overall SP+ Rating: -6.9 #86
Offense SP+ Rating: 16.1 #122
Defense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #47
Talent Rating: 756.00 #36
Blue Chip Ratio: 18% #34
Expected Record: 4.10 - 7.90

Team Profile

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Michigan State Ratings Matchup Iowa

Power #92

#61

Off #127

#133

Def #82

Talent #36

#22

SP+ #86

#36

SP+ Off #122

#127

SP+ Def #47

Rematch from Week 5
Iowa -10.0 (36.5)
Iowa won vs Michigan State this year (26-16)

Previous Matchups
Michigan State beat Iowa last year (32-20)
Iowa beat Michigan State in 2023 (26-16)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Kinnick Stadium
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 82° - Wind: 6 mph

Team Information
Injuries: MSU | IOWA
Depth Chart: MSU | IOWA
Rosters: MSU | IOWA

(#61) Iowa Info

Preseason ratings
Power Rating: 6.51 #61
Offense Rating: 3.02 #133
Defense Rating: -2.19 #3
Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #36
Offense SP+ Rating: 15.0 #127
Defense SP+ Rating: 8.1 #2
Talent Rating: 838.00 #22
Blue Chip Ratio: 14 #38
Expected Record: 6.60 - 7.40

Team Profile

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Michigan State's OC Jay Johnson

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Sam Leavitt	216	350	62%	2885	24	6	8.2
Katin Houser	149	245	61%	2006	18	11	8.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Simmons	110	664	2	6.0	73
Nathan Carter (Tr)	116	499	5	4.3	60
Sam Leavitt	110	443	5	4.0	40
Jalen Berger	48	178	0	3.7	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Montorie Foster	46	588	3	12.8	40
Christian Fitzpatrick	34	576	6	16.9	69
Maliq Carr	19	186	1	9.8	23
Jordan Simmons	21	183	0	8.7	52

View Michigan State's Full Roster

Michigan State's DC Scottie Hazelton

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Cal Haladay	58	5	1	0	1
Angelo Grose	50	4	1	0	2
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Barrow Jr.	30	8	6	3	1
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2
Khris Bogle	37	8	4	6	0
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Eddie Pleasant III	11	0	0	0	5
Zion Young	41	6	3	5	3
Derrick Harmon	43	11	5	10	2

Iowa's OC Brian Ferentz

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Kaleb Johnson	240	1537	21	6.4	75
Hayden Large	2	2	0	1.0	2

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Diante Vines	36	393	2	10.9	40
Luke Lachey	28	231	0	8.3	28
Kaleb Johnson	22	188	2	8.5	72
Hayden Large	3	18	0	6.0	10

View Iowa's Full Roster

Iowa's DC Phil Parker

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Quinn Schulte	62	0	0	0	3
Sebastian Castro	57	3	0	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Deontae Craig	43	7	3	6	1
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5
Anterio Thompson	34	2	1	5	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nick Jackson (Tr)	91	5	3	5	7
Jermari Harris	27	1	0	0	7
Jay Higgins	124	3	1	6	5