Tennessee at Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo   Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -5 (57.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Florida 29 - Tennessee: 16  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 40 - 29 (37 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -2  (SP+ TENN -7)
Projected Score: TENN: 30 - FLA: 28 (57)
TENN Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TENN Travel: 445 miles
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Tennessee vs Virginia-27.556.0W 49 - 13OY
Sat 9/9 Tennessee vs Austin Peay-48.065.5W 30 - 13UN
Sat 9/16 Tennessee at Florida-5.057.0L 16 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Tennessee vs UTSA-24.059.0W 45 - 14UY
Sat 9/30 Tennessee vs South Carolina-12.059.0W 41 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Tennessee vs Texas A&M-3.054.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/21 Tennessee at Alabama+8.547.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 Tennessee at Kentucky-4.050.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Tennessee vs UConn-35.055.5W 59 - 3OY
Sat 11/11 Tennessee at Missouri-1.058.5L 7 - 36UN
Sat 11/18 Tennessee vs Georgia+9.059.0L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/25 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-27.058.0W 48 - 24ON
Mon 1/1 Tennessee vs Iowa-4.537.0W 35 - 0UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN.3751%39.851%3.319951%3264.81.1841%28.839%43%3.1669.50.81.8
FLA.2640%21.641%3.1720039%2243.65.2345%2447%44%4.3650.11.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1339.83751.1%4.810.825526199326550%50%51%51%10%.37
FLA Defense132418.745.3%4.362 - - - - - 55%44%47%44%14%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1328.82941.2%3.161.8 - - - - - 44%56%39%43%16%.18
FLA Offense1321.62939.8%3.651.1204242002245.554%46%41%39%13%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1325:1425.441%68%8.169.50.81.872.4130.6
Florida1329:022040%47%6.850.11.125.41.8228.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1350%51%40.2199.5540.293.380%7%1.03
FLA Defense1355%47% - - - - .213.1773%10%1.05
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1344%39% - - - - .042.6570%11%0.98
FLA Offense1354%41%36.3200.25.529.263.1780%8%1.29

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1350%51%22.332.5326.110.114.6383.451.625%32%.43%2.2
FLA Defense1344%44% - - - - - - 9.281.631%39%.464%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1356%43% - - - - - - 11.291.632%32%.335%2
FLA Offense1346%39%15.328.2223.8814.6189.31.835%30%.435%2.3

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 9.71  #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15  #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94  #31
2023 Talent Rating: 821.07  #16
Blue Chip Ratio: 48%  #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0  #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4  #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0  #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 9.71   Florida: 9.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.0   Florida: 5.9




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 9.575  #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02  #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38  #90
2023 Talent Rating: 845.29  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 39.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37
Defense: 28.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 30
Florida 28

Projected Total Points: 57
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Florida11Tennessee31Tennessee -3.5Tennessee57.5Under
202410/12Tennessee23Florida17Tennessee -13.5Florida54.5Under
202309/16Florida29Tennessee16Tennessee -5Florida57.0Under
202209/24Tennessee38Florida33Tennessee -11Florida62.0Over
202109/25Florida38Tennessee14Florida -19Florida65.0Under
202012/05Tennessee19Florida31Florida -18.5Tennessee63.0Under
201909/21Florida34Tennessee3Florida -12.5Florida49.5Under
201809/22Tennessee21Florida47Florida -3.5Florida46.0Over
201709/16Florida26Tennessee20Florida -6.5Tennessee50.5Under
201609/24Tennessee38Florida28Tennessee -8Tennessee42.5Over
201509/26Florida28Tennessee27Florida -3Tennessee50.5Over
201410/04Tennessee9Florida10Florida -1.5Tennessee0
201309/21Florida31Tennessee17Florida -15.5Tennessee0
201209/15Tennessee20Florida37
201109/17Florida33Tennessee23
201009/18Tennessee17Florida31
200909/19Florida23Tennessee13
200809/20Tennessee6Florida30
200709/15Florida59Tennessee20
200609/16Tennessee20Florida21
200509/17Florida16Tennessee7
200409/18Tennessee30Florida28
200309/20Florida10Tennessee24
200209/21Tennessee13Florida30
200112/01Florida32Tennessee34
200009/15Tennessee23Florida27
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1964 Overs
Tennessee777 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 126 - 73 - 53 - 2
Road Teams12 - 147 - 62 - 35 - 3

(#24) TENN at (#26) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTENNFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #24 #26
SP+SP+ #19 #42
Perf GradeGrade #37 #47
OffenseOff #59 #37
DefenseDef #33 #83
Spec TeamsST #13 #105
TalentTal #16 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #10
Tennessee on Offense
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #59 #83
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #36 #90
SP+SP+ #28 #64
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Tennessee Run Game
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #22 #54
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #86 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #115
Tennessee Pass Game
CategoryCat
TENN OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #53 #115
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #73 #64
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Florida on Offense
CategoryCatFLA OffTENN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #37 #33
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #19 #31
SP+SP+ #42 #31
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffTENN Def
Run GameRun #64 #68
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #44
Florida Pass Game
CategoryCatFLA OffTENN Def
Pass GamePass #55 #25
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #11
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

TENN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'23 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 3
Tennessee 5.0 (57.0)
Florida won vs Tennessee this year (29-16)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Florida last year (31-11)
Tennessee beat Florida in 2024 (23-17)
Florida beat Tennessee in 2023 (29-16)

  
TENN's OC Joey Halzle (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Milton23035565%28142057.9
Nico Iamaleava284562%314207.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Wright137101347.482
Dylan Sampson10660375.744
Jabari Small9547525.040
Joe Milton7829973.881
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Squirrel White68804211.883
Ramel Keyton35642618.360
McCallan Castles (Tr)22283512.943
Dont'E Thornton13224117.247

View Tennessee's Full Roster

TENN's DC Tim Banks (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Herring795111
Aaron Beasley6912313
Jaylen McCollough583014
Wesley Walker534112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.271410150
Tyler Baron2811652
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)266610
Aaron Beasley6912313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamal Hadden190017
Tamarion McDonald404114
Jaylen McCollough583014

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003