Tennessee at Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview
Tennessee logo (#15)Tennessee Volunteers at Florida GatorsFlorida logo
Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Tennessee -5 (57.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Florida 29 - Tennessee: 16  (SEC)

 
Volunteers (9 - 4) (7 - 6 - 0)
Coach Josh Heupel (20 - 9)
Avg Score : 32 - 20 (19 - 32 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Tennessee -2   (SP+ TENN -7)

Projected Score: TENN: 28 - FLA: 26 (55)
TENN Win prob: 63% | Cover: 48%
TENN Travel: 445 miles
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (32 - 18 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Tennessee's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/2 Tennessee vs Virginia-27.556.0W 49 - 13OY
Sat 9/9 Tennessee vs Austin Peay-48.065.5W 30 - 13UN
Sat 9/16 Tennessee at Florida-5.057.0L 16 - 29UN
Sat 9/23 Tennessee vs UTSA-24.059.0W 45 - 14UY
Sat 9/30 Tennessee vs South Carolina-12.059.0W 41 - 20OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14 Tennessee vs Texas A&M-3.054.5W 20 - 13UY
Sat 10/21 Tennessee at Alabama+8.547.5L 20 - 34ON
Sat 10/28 Tennessee at Kentucky-4.050.5W 33 - 27OY
Sat 11/4 Tennessee vs UConn-35.055.5W 59 - 3OY
Sat 11/11 Tennessee at Missouri-1.058.5L 7 - 36UN
Sat 11/18 Tennessee vs Georgia+9.059.0L 10 - 38UN
Sat 11/25 Tennessee vs Vanderbilt-27.058.0W 48 - 24ON
Mon 1/1 Tennessee vs Iowa-4.537.0W 35 - 0UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Tennessee's Schedule
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule

Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#36 (.27)46% (24)31.846% (39)3.31 (30)18747% (25)2323.56 (94)#54 (.16)39% (35)20.337% (19)41% (65)3.41 (34)65.60.91.2
FLA#39 (.27)44% (47)28.443% (63)3.11 (69)15245% (36)2574.7 (14)#106 (.24)38% (26)27.636% (15)40% (45)4.08 (93)49.610.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TENN#46 (.23)47% (18)48% (23)3.4 (13)22747% (19)2214.02 (55)#13 (.07)38% (17)36% (9)39% (48)3.03 (10)66.81.21.6
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Offense1331.81946.3%3.560.9204191872325.651%49%46%47%13%.27
FLA Defense1227.617.837.9%4.080.6 - - - - - 50%49%36%40%16%.24
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TENN Defense1320.331.538.9%3.411.2 - - - - - 48%52%37%41%18%.16
FLA Offense1228.431.543.9%4.71224091522574.348%52%43%45%16%.27

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Tennessee1322:3219.943%31%7.565.60.91.27.22.8430.3
Florida1233:0621.637%41%6.649.610.64.91.8026.4
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Offense1351% (60)46% (39)33.5186.95.620 (61).22 (28)3.31 (30)72% (80)7% (16)1.05 (39)
FLA Defense1250% (71)36% (15) - - - - .16 (84)2.97 (44)59% (8)10% (62)1.28 (132)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TENN Defense1348% (41)37% (19) - - - - .05 (21)2.71 (15)65% (24)13% (11)1.03 (85)
FLA Offense1248% (88)43% (63)35.2151.64.321 (54).17 (59)3.11 (69)72% (85)12% (114)1 (64)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Offense1349% (69)47% (25)19.330.1231.77.71221 (65)5 (6).35 (39)1.5 (110)30% (39)32% (64).38 (54)6% (68)2.1 (63)
FLA Defense1249% (71)40% (45) - - - - - - 3 (132).35 (107)1.9 (129)34% (39)28% (37).34 (82)6% (82)2.3 (120)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TENN Defense1352% (96)41% (65) - - - - - - 10 (67).29 (85)1.6 (85)35% (27)31% (82).36 (93)5% (100)2 (41)
FLA Offense1252% (40)45% (36)23.432.4257.27.91120 (70)5 (6).37 (33)1.6 (76)32% (79)30% (74).43 (38)4% (13)2.1 (48)

Tennessee's Power Ratings
Tennessee's Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Tennessee's Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Tennessee's Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Tennessee's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Tennessee's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96

Power Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 9.71   Florida: 9.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Tennessee: 13.0   Florida: 5.9




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 9.575 #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
2023 Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 96
Average Power Five Talent: 96
Average FBS Talent: 96


Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 31.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 19
Defense: 20.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 31.5

Tennessee's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 4
Record vs Spread: 7 - 6 - 0
Record on Road: 1 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 4 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Tennessee 28
Florida 26


Total Points: 55

Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.5
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.8

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreWinnerSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Tennessee23Florida17TennesseeTennessee -13.5Florida54.5Under
202309/16Florida29Tennessee16FloridaTennessee -5Florida57.0Under
202209/24Tennessee38Florida33TennesseeTennessee -11Florida62.0Over
202109/25Florida38Tennessee14FloridaFlorida -19Florida65.0Under
202012/05Tennessee19Florida31FloridaFlorida -18.5Tennessee63.0Under
201909/21Florida34Tennessee3FloridaFlorida -12.5Florida49.5Under
201809/22Tennessee21Florida47FloridaFlorida -3.5Florida46.0Over
201709/16Florida26Tennessee20FloridaFlorida -6.5Tennessee50.5Under
201609/24Tennessee38Florida28TennesseeTennessee -8Tennessee42.5Over
201509/26Florida28Tennessee27FloridaFlorida -3Tennessee50.5Over
201410/04Tennessee9Florida10FloridaFlorida -1.5Tennessee0
201309/21Florida31Tennessee17FloridaFlorida -15.5Tennessee0
201209/15Tennessee20Florida37Florida
201109/17Florida33Tennessee23Florida
201009/18Tennessee17Florida31Florida
200909/19Florida23Tennessee13Florida
200809/20Tennessee6Florida30Florida
200709/15Florida59Tennessee20Florida
200609/16Tennessee20Florida21Florida
200509/17Florida16Tennessee7Florida
200409/18Tennessee30Florida28Tennessee
200309/20Florida10Tennessee24Tennessee
200209/21Tennessee13Florida30Florida
200112/01Florida32Tennessee34Tennessee
200009/15Tennessee23Florida27Florida
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida1964 Overs
Tennessee666 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 116 - 63 - 53 - 1
Road Teams11 - 146 - 61 - 35 - 3

(#24) Tennessee Info
Power Rating: 9.71 #24
Offense Rating: 20.15 #36
Defense Rating: 5.94 #31
Overall SP+ Rating: 13.0 #19
Offense SP+ Rating: 33.4 #28
Defense SP+ Rating: 21.0 #31
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 48% #17
Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60


Tennessee has won 2 straight
Record on Road: 1 - 3 (1 - 3 - 0 vs Spread )

Tennessee Highlights
Tennessee has Really Good Running Game (#21)
Tennessee offense is efficent (#22)
Tennessee has a top Offensive Line (#61)
Tennessee does Not Get Runs Stuffed (#36)

Tennessee Defense Sacks the QB a lot

Tennessee has a good run defense (#102)
Tennessee Stuffs a lot of Run Plays (#111)
Tennessee Defensive Line is very good (#58)
Tennessee Front 7 is disruptive (#76)
Tennessee has a great TO Margin (#54)

Tennessee Deficiencies
Tennessee Commits a Lot of Penalties (#109)
Tennessee gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#18)

Performance GradesPerf Grades
CategoryCatFLATENN
OverallOver#39#30
OffenseOff#34#55
DefenseDef#64#27
Special TeamsST#83#13
PassingPass#43#41
RushingRush#46#15
Run BlockRBLK#22#65
Pass BlockPBLK#55#63
Route RunningWR Rt#26#61
TacklingTkl#97#39
Run DefenseR Def#48#59
Pass Rush DefPRush#51#10
Coverage DefCov#94#21

Rematch from Week 3
Tennessee 5.0 (57.0)
Florida won vs Tennessee this year (29-16)

Previous Matchups
Tennessee beat Florida last year (23-17)
Florida beat Tennessee in 2023 (29-16)
Tennessee beat Florida in 2022 (38-33)

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Team Information
Injuries: TENN | FLA
Depth Chart: TENN | FLA
Rosters: TENN | FLA
(#26) Florida Info
Power Rating: 9.575 #26
Offense Rating: 23.02 #19
Defense Rating: 11.38 #90
Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9 #42
Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6 #42
Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5 #64
Talent Rating: 96.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65 #10
Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50


Florida has won 1 straight
Florida has won 1 straight at Home
Record at home: 4 - 2 (2 - 4 - 0 vs Spread)

Florida Highlights
Florida offense is good in red zone (#72)
Florida has a really good defense (#18)
Florida has a good run defense (#7)
Florida has a great TO Margin (#116)

Florida Deficiencies
Florida gives up a Lot of Explosive Plays (#75)


  
Tennessee's OC Joey Halzle
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Joe Milton23035565%28142057.9
Nico Iamaleava284562%314207.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jaylen Wright137101347.482
Dylan Sampson10660375.744
Jabari Small9547525.040
Joe Milton7829973.881
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Squirrel White68804211.883
Ramel Keyton35642618.360
McCallan Castles (Tr)22283512.943
Dont'E Thornton13224117.247

View Tennessee's Full Roster
Tennessee's DC Tim Banks
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Elijah Herring795111
Aaron Beasley6912313
Jaylen McCollough583014
Wesley Walker534112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
James Pearce Jr.271410150
Tyler Baron2811652
Omarr Norman-Lott (Tr)266610
Aaron Beasley6912313
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kamal Hadden190017
Tamarion McDonald404114
Jaylen McCollough583014

Florida's OC Rob Sale
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster
Florida's DC Austin Armstrong
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003