Florida at Missouri - 2023 Matchup Preview
Florida logo Florida Gators at Missouri TigersMissouri logo
Saturday, November 18th 2023 (7:30 PM EST)
Missouri -12.5 (56.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Missouri 33 - Florida: 31  (SEC)

 
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 28 - 28 (26 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FLA 2nd straight Road Game
MIZ 2nd straight Home Game
FLA is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -10.5  (SP+ MIZ -12)
Projected Score: FLA: 24 - MIZ: 35 (59)
MIZ Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
FLA Travel: 857 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Missouri's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Missouri vs South Dakota-27.044.5W 35 - 10ON
Sat 9/9 Missouri vs Middle Tennessee-21.047.5W 23 - 19UN
Sat 9/16 Missouri vs Kansas State+3.548.0W 30 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Missouri vs Memphis-6.552.0W 34 - 27OY
Sat 9/30 Missouri at Vanderbilt-14.053.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/7 Missouri vs LSU+6.063.5L 39 - 49ON
Sat 10/14 Missouri at Kentucky+1.550.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Missouri vs South Carolina-7.557.5W 34 - 12UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Missouri at Georgia+15.056.5L 21 - 30UY
Sat 11/11 Missouri vs Tennessee+1.058.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Missouri vs Florida-12.556.5W 33 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Missouri at Arkansas-9.553.5W 48 - 14OY
Fri 12/29 Missouri vs Ohio State+4.051.0W 14 - 3UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Important Stats (2023)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#39 (.27)44% (47)28.443% (63)3.11 (69)15245% (36)2574.7 (14)#106 (.24)38% (26)27.636% (15)40% (45)4.08 (93)49.610.6
MIZ#21 (.29)46% (26)32.545% (48)3.06 (82)17248% (13)2614.51 (22)#47 (.15)37% (19)20.835% (13)39% (30)3.93 (81)54.20.71.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FLA#72 (.18)43% (64)45% (54)3.04 (66)16441% (82)2264.17 (46)#53 (.14)44% (95)49% (118)39% (44)3.12 (14)541.41.9
MIZ#70 (.19)44% (54)47% (28)3.04 (67)15941% (80)2023.91 (68)#32 (.11)41% (54)42% (57)39% (56)3.38 (28)460.71.2



Overall Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Offense1228.426.443.9%4.71224091522574.348%52%43%45%16%.27
MIZ Defense1320.822.136.8%3.931.5 - - - - - 46%54%35%39%19%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FLA Defense1227.636.237.9%4.080.6 - - - - - 50%49%36%40%16%.24
MIZ Offense1332.532.946.1%4.510.7224331722614.554%46%45%48%13%.29

Additional Stats 2023
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida1233:0621.637%41%6.649.610.64.91.8026.4
Missouri1330:2421.543%73%7.254.20.71.56.12.8128.6
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Offense1248% (88)43% (63)35.2151.64.321 (54).17 (59)3.11 (69)72% (85)12% (114)1 (64)
MIZ Defense1346% (18)35% (13) - - - - .08 (33)2.74 (17)71% (56)13% (11)1.06 (97)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FLA Defense1250% (71)36% (15) - - - - .16 (84)2.97 (44)59% (8)10% (62)1.28 (132)
MIZ Offense1354% (40)45% (48)38.2171.84.525 (37).18 (50)3.06 (82)75% (52)9% (46)0.97 (84)

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Offense1252% (40)45% (36)23.432.4257.27.91120 (70)5 (6).37 (33)1.6 (76)32% (79)30% (74).43 (38)4% (13)2.1 (48)
MIZ Defense1354% (118)39% (30) - - - - - - 9 (87).23 (46)1.6 (58)36% (21)25% (15).18 (12)6% (64)1.9 (19)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FLA Defense1249% (71)40% (45) - - - - - - 3 (132).35 (107)1.9 (129)34% (39)28% (37).34 (82)6% (82)2.3 (120)
MIZ Offense1346% (93)48% (13)1928.9261.2913.723 (51)7 (21).44 (18)1.7 (42)31% (46)36% (21).46 (29)5% (16)2 (69)

Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 8.25  #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02  #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38  #90
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 65%  #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida: 8.25   Missouri: 17.615

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida: 5.9   Missouri: 17.8




Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 17.615  #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36  #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05  #38
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00  #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 23  #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8  #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482


Florida Scoring
Offense: 28.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.4
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.2

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 35
Florida 24

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Missouri 39
Florida 25

Total Points: 64

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 32
Florida 25

Total Points: 57
Missouri Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.9
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 3 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/18Missouri33Florida31Missouri -12.5Florida56.5Over
202210/08Florida24Missouri17Florida -11Missouri53.5Under
202111/20Missouri24Florida23Florida -9.5Missouri69.0Under
202010/31Florida41Missouri17Florida -13.5Florida64.0Under
201911/16Missouri6Florida23Florida -7.0Florida51.0Under
201811/03Florida17Missouri38Florida -6Missouri59.5Under
201711/04Missouri45Florida16Missouri -1.5Missouri61.5Under
201610/15Florida40Missouri14Florida -13Florida51.0Over
201510/10Missouri3Florida21Florida -3.5Florida38.5Under
201410/18Florida13Missouri42Florida -3Missouri0
201310/19Missouri36Florida17Florida -1.5Missouri0
201211/03Florida14Missouri7
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Missouri662 Overs
Florida657 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 45 - 63 - 42 - 2
Road Teams4 - 86 - 52 - 24 - 3

(#26) FLA at (#14) MIZ
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFLAMIZ
Power RatePwr #26 #14
SP+SP+ #42 #12
Perf GradeGrade #47 #19
OffenseOff #37 #14
DefenseDef #83 #49
Spec TeamsST #105 #67
TalentTal #1 #1
Blue ChipsBC% #10 #30
Florida on Offense
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIZ Def
Perf GradePerf #37 #49
SuccessSuc #47 #19
ExplosiveExp #61 #102
PPAPPA #39 #47
PowerPwr #19 #38
SP+SP+ #42 #23
Pts POPPO #14 #81
HavocHav #78 #19
Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIZ Def
Run GameRun #64 #78
Run SuccessRSuc #63 #13
Run ExplRExp #64 #97
PPAExp #59 #33
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLY #69 #17
Stuff RateStuff #92 #14
TackleTak -  #72
Florida Pass Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffMIZ Def
Pass GamePass #55 #56
Pass SuccessPSuc #36 #30
Pass ExplPExl #76 #58
PPAExp #33 #46
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #63 #35
F7 HavocF7 #114 #11
DB HavocDB #13 #64
Missouri on Offense
CategoryCatMIZ OffFLA Def
Perf GradePerf #14 #83
SuccessSuc #26 #26
ExplosiveExp #63 #133
PPAPPA #21 #106
PowerPwr #15 #90
SP+SP+ #11 #64
Pts POPPO #22 #93
HavocHav #24 #74
Missouri Run Game
CategoryCat
MIZ OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #53 #54
Run SuccessRSuc #48 #15
Run ExplRExp #84 #132
PPAExp #50 #84
Run BlockR Blk #5 -
OL YdsOLY #82 #44
Stuff RateStuff #120 #56
TackleTak -  #115
Missouri Pass Game
CategoryCatMIZ OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #18 #115
Pass SuccessPSuc #13 #45
Pass ExplPExl #42 #129
PPAExp #18 #107
Pass Block/RushP Blk #36 #64
F7 HavocF7 #46 #62
DB HavocDB #16 #82
Program Comparison
MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'25 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Faurot Field
Conditions: Clear
Temp: 47°
Rematch from Week 12
Missouri -12.5 (56.5)
Missouri won vs Florida this year (33-31)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Florida in 2023 (33-31)
Florida beat Missouri in 2022 (24-17)

  
FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brady Cook24336766%33022169.0
Sam Horn3650%54119.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cody Schrader2761617145.952
Brady Cook11331982.825
Nathaniel Peat7631734.219
Luther Burden III83804.820
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luther Burden III851205914.256
Theo Wease48661613.877
Mookie Cooper36447012.441
Marquis Johnson13383329.576

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylon Carlies645224
Joseph Charleston601034
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Charles Hicks5311221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Robinson4314960
Johnny Walker4311690
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)224430
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kris Abrams-Draine5030112
Daylan Carnell516387
Jaylon Carlies645224