Vanderbilt at Florida - 2023 Matchup Preview
Vanderbilt logo   Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators  Florida logo
Saturday, October 7th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Florida -18 (51.0) (0)  Open: 0.0
Florida 38 - Vanderbilt: 14  (SEC)

 
Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 19)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (33 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
FLA is playing their 6th straight game
VAN is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Florida -22  (SP+ FLA -20)
Projected Score: VAN: 15 - FLA: 37 (52)
FLA Win prob: 91% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 518 miles, 1 hrs behind
Gators (5 - 7) (4 - 8 - 0)
Coach Billy Napier (8 - 8)
Avg Score : 22 - 24 (29 - 19 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#68)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i-17.054.5W 35 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M-35.053.5W 47 - 13ON
Sat 9/9 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest+9.555.0L 20 - 36ON
Sat 9/16 Vanderbilt at UNLV-4.556.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/23 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky+13.550.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/30 Vanderbilt vs Missouri+14.053.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/7 Vanderbilt at Florida+18.051.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 10/14 Vanderbilt vs Georgia+32.555.0L 20 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Vanderbilt at Ole Miss+24.062.0L 7 - 33UN
Sat 11/4 Vanderbilt vs Auburn+12.550.0L 15 - 31UN
Sat 11/11 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+13.553.5L 6 - 47UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+27.058.0L 24 - 48OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Florida's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Florida at Utah+5.544.5L 11 - 24UN
Sat 9/9 Florida vs McNeese-48.555.5W 49 - 7ON
Sat 9/16 Florida vs Tennessee+5.057.0W 29 - 16UY
Sat 9/23 Florida vs Charlotte-28.048.5W 22 - 7UN
Sat 9/30 Florida at Kentucky+1.044.0L 14 - 33ON
Sat 10/7 Florida vs Vanderbilt-18.051.0W 38 - 14OY
Sat 10/14 Florida at South Carolina-1.050.0W 41 - 39OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Florida vs Georgia+14.050.0L 20 - 43ON
Sat 11/4 Florida vs Arkansas-4.550.0L 36 - 39ON
Sat 11/11 Florida at LSU+14.068.5L 35 - 52ON
Sat 11/18 Florida at Missouri+12.556.5L 31 - 33OY
Sat 11/25 Florida vs Florida State+6.051.0L 15 - 24UN

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Florida's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN.1640%38.540%2.9816042%1873.73.3145%22.842%49%4.1446.11.31.8
FLA.2640%21.641%3.1720039%2243.65.2345%2447%44%4.3650.11.12
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
FLA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Offense1238.53340.3%3.731.3183471601874.356%43%40%42%18%.16
FLA Defense132418.745.3%4.362 - - - - - 55%44%47%44%14%.23
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
VAN Defense1222.82345.5%4.141.8 - - - - - 48%52%42%49%15%.31
FLA Offense1321.62939.8%3.651.1204242002245.554%46%41%39%13%.26

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Vanderbilt1231:3617.537%38%5.346.11.31.84.71.4028.8
Florida1329:022040%47%6.850.11.125.41.8228.3
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Offense1256%40%37.1159.94.313.12.9873%10%1
FLA Defense1355%47% - - - - .213.1773%10%1.05
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
VAN Defense1248%42% - - - - .083.2454%9%1.07
FLA Offense1354%41%36.3200.25.529.263.1780%8%1.29

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Offense1243%42%16.728.8187.36.511.2226.291.733%27%.328%2.3
FLA Defense1344%44% - - - - - - 9.281.631%39%.464%2
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
VAN Defense1252%49% - - - - - - 6.551.729%33%.495%2.3
FLA Offense1346%39%15.328.2223.8814.6189.31.835%30%.435%2.3

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -11.51  #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08  #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21  #124
2023 Talent Rating: 639.88  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7%  #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7  #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -11.51   Florida: 9.575

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -13.7   Florida: 5.9




Florida's Power Ratings
Florida's Power Rating: 9.575  #26
Florida's Offense Rating: 23.02  #19
Florida's Defense Rating: 11.38  #90
2023 Talent Rating: 845.29  #15
Blue Chip Ratio: 65  #10
Florida's 2023 Expected Record: 6.50 - 5.50
Florida's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.9  #42
Florida's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.6  #42
Florida's Defense SP+ Rating: 26.5  #64

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 33
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 23

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 4 - 0
Projected Score
Florida 37
Vanderbilt 15

Projected Total Points: 52
Florida Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 29
Defense: 24 PPG
Defense at Home: 18.7

Florida's 2023 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 4 - 8 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 4
Record at home: 4 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202310/07Florida38Vanderbilt14Florida -18Florida51.0Over
202211/19Vanderbilt31Florida24Florida -14Vanderbilt58.0Under
202110/09Florida42Vanderbilt0Florida -39Florida60.5Under
202011/21Vanderbilt17Florida38Florida -31.5Vanderbilt68.5Under
201911/09Florida56Vanderbilt0Florida -26.5Florida50.0Over
201810/13Vanderbilt27Florida37Florida -9.5Florida51.0Over
201709/30Florida38Vanderbilt24Florida -9Florida39.0Over
201610/01Vanderbilt6Florida13Florida -8.5Vanderbilt40.5Under
201511/07Florida9Vanderbilt7Florida -19Vanderbilt38.5Under
201411/08Vanderbilt10Florida34Florida -13.5Florida0
201311/09Florida17Vanderbilt34Florida -10Vanderbilt0
201210/13Vanderbilt17Florida31
201111/05Florida26Vanderbilt21
201011/06Vanderbilt14Florida55
200911/07Florida27Vanderbilt3
200811/08Vanderbilt14Florida42
200711/03Florida49Vanderbilt22
200611/04Vanderbilt19Florida25
200511/05Florida49Vanderbilt42
200411/06Vanderbilt17Florida34
200311/08Florida35Vanderbilt17
200211/09Vanderbilt17Florida21
200111/03Florida71Vanderbilt13
200011/03Vanderbilt20Florida43
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Florida2264 Overs
Vanderbilt255 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 127 - 44 - 23 - 2
Road Teams12 - 124 - 72 - 32 - 4

(#122) VAN at (#26) FLA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatVANFLA
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #122 #26
SP+SP+ #113 #42
Perf GradeGrade #129 #47
OffenseOff #116 #37
DefenseDef #126 #83
Spec TeamsST #115 #105
TalentTal #58 #15
Blue ChipsBC% #57 #10
Vanderbilt on Offense
CategoryCat
VAN OffFLA Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #116 #83
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #122 #90
SP+SP+ #84 #64
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Vanderbilt Run Game
CategoryCat
VAN OffFLA Def
Run GameRun #104 #54
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #112 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #115
Vanderbilt Pass Game
CategoryCat
VAN OffFLA Def
Pass GamePass #103 #115
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #122 #64
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Florida on Offense
CategoryCatFLA OffVAN Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #37 #126
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #19 #124
SP+SP+ #42 #125
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Florida Run Game
CategoryCat
FLA OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #64 #105
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #26 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #103
Florida Pass Game
CategoryCatFLA OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #55 #121
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #63 #124
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
FLA 5 Year Profile: Declining Average P4
'23 Profile: Down to Below Avg P4

VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 6
Florida -18.0 (51.0)
Florida won vs Vanderbilt this year (38-14)

Previous Matchups
Florida beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (38-14)

  
VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann10619654%14181277.2
Ken Seals10617959%12181146.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sedrick Alexander9637043.927
Patrick Smith7932724.140
Jayden McGowan1910805.718
Walter Taylor3010213.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Sheppard47684814.685
London Humphreys22439420.056
Jayden McGowan36383010.650
Junior Sherrill20293314.752

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Patterson748120
Jaylen Mahoney591006
CJ Taylor558313
Ethan Barr543111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nate Clifton308641
CJ Taylor558313
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)336330
Kane Patterson436201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Mahoney591006
Trudell Berry211004
BJ Anderson80003

FLA's OC Rob Sale (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Graham Mertz (Tr)26035773%28782038.1
Max Brown192868%192016.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Montrell Johnson15281755.452
Trevor Etienne13175385.762
Treyaun Webb2616326.343
Ricky Pearsall362220.739
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ricky Pearsall64970415.261
Eugene Wilson6153868.830
Arlis Boardingham26289411.125
Kahleil Jackson21251112.045

View Florida's Full Roster

FLA's DC Austin Armstrong (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jordan Castell592003
Shemar James556100
Scooby Williams524140
Jaydon Hill394223
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Princely Umanmielen39117160
Derek Wingo184321
Jaydon Hill394223
Kelby Collins242231
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jason Marshall Jr.2631011
Jalen Kimber230015
Jordan Castell592003