Missouri at Vanderbilt - 2023 Matchup Preview

(#20)Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores(#18)

Saturday, September 30th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -14 (53.5) (0) Open: 0.0
Missouri 38 - Vanderbilt: 21 (SEC)

Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 33 - 21 (36 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN 2nd straight Home Game
VAN is playing their 5th straight game
MIZ is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -25 (SP+ MIZ -31.5)
Projected Score: MIZ: 39 - VAN: 14 (52)
MIZ Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
MIZ Travel: 359 miles

Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (28 - 32 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MIZ Players
VAN Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Missouri's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	Missouri vs South Dakota	-27.0	44.5	W 35 - 10	O	N
Sat 9/9	Missouri vs Middle Tennessee	-21.0	47.5	W 23 - 19	U	N
Sat 9/16	Missouri vs Kansas State	+3.5	48.0	W 30 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/23	Missouri vs Memphis	-6.5	52.0	W 34 - 27	O	Y
Sat 9/30	Missouri at Vanderbilt	-14.0	53.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/7	Missouri vs LSU	+6.0	63.5	L 39 - 49	O	N
Sat 10/14	Missouri at Kentucky	+1.5	50.5	W 38 - 21	O	Y
Sat 10/21	Missouri vs South Carolina	-7.5	57.5	W 34 - 12	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Missouri at Georgia	+15.0	56.5	L 21 - 30	U	Y
Sat 11/11	Missouri vs Tennessee	+1.0	58.5	W 36 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/18	Missouri vs Florida	-12.5	56.5	W 33 - 31	O	N
Fri 11/24	Missouri at Arkansas	-9.5	53.5	W 48 - 14	O	Y
Fri 12/29	Missouri vs Ohio State	+4.0	51.0	W 14 - 3	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule

Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i	-17.0	54.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M	-35.0	53.5	W 47 - 13	O	N
Sat 9/9	Vanderbilt at Wake Forest	+9.5	55.0	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/16	Vanderbilt at UNLV	-4.5	56.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+13.5	50.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+14.0	53.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/7	Vanderbilt at Florida	+18.0	51.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/14	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+32.5	55.0	L 20 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+24.0	62.0	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/4	Vanderbilt vs Auburn	+12.5	50.0	L 15 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+13.5	53.5	L 6 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+27.0	58.0	L 24 - 48	O	Y

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#21 (.29)	46% (26)	32.5	45% (48)	3.06 (82)	172	48% (13)	261	4.51 (22)	#47 (.15)	37% (19)	20.8	35% (13)	39% (30)	3.93 (81)	54.2	0.7	1.5
VAN	#127 (.05)	36% (123)	22.8	37% (124)	2.92 (103)	95	37% (109)	223	4.09 (50)	#131 (.33)	45% (106)	36.2	42% (59)	48% (131)	4.11 (98)	42.5	1.7	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MIZ	#70 (.19)	44% (54)		47% (28)	3.04 (67)	159	41% (80)	202	3.91 (68)	#32 (.11)	41% (54)		42% (57)	39% (56)	3.38 (28)	46	0.7	1.2
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Offense	13	32.5	36.3	46.1%	4.51	0.7	22	433	172	261	4.5	54%	46%	45%	48%	13%	.29
VAN Defense	12	36.2	32	44.8%	4.11	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	42%	48%	15%	.33

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MIZ Defense	13	20.8	21.5	36.8%	3.93	1.5	-	-	-	-	-	46%	54%	35%	39%	19%	.15
VAN Offense	12	22.8	27.7	36.4%	4.09	1.7	17	319	95	223	3.3	42%	56%	37%	37%	22%	.05

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Missouri	13	30:24	21.5	43%	73%	7.2	54.2	0.7	1.5	6.1	2.8	1	28.6
Vanderbilt	12	28:46	17	33%	30%	4.9	42.5	1.7	1.3	5.4	1.8	3	29.5

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense	13	54% (40)	45% (48)	38.2	171.8	4.5	25 (37)	.18 (50)	3.06 (82)	75% (52)	9% (46)	0.97 (84)
VAN Defense	12	47% (28)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.25 (119)	3.08 (61)	72% (60)	9% (90)	1.17 (122)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense	13	46% (18)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	.08 (33)	2.74 (17)	71% (56)	13% (11)	1.06 (97)
VAN Offense	12	42% (116)	37% (124)	29.2	95.3	3.3	10 (124)	-.01 (128)	2.92 (103)	74% (63)	12% (102)	0.96 (91)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense	13	46% (93)	48% (13)	19	28.9	261.2	9	13.7	23 (51)	7 (21)	.44 (18)	1.7 (42)	31% (46)	36% (21)	.46 (29)	5% (16)	2 (69)
VAN Defense	12	52% (100)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.43 (126)	1.6 (56)	31% (88)	37% (126)	.46 (123)	5% (96)	1.9 (25)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense	13	54% (118)	39% (30)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (87)	.23 (46)	1.6 (58)	36% (21)	25% (15)	.18 (12)	6% (64)	1.9 (19)
VAN Offense	12	56% (21)	37% (109)	18.1	32.5	223.3	6.9	12.4	23 (51)	13 (97)	.14 (113)	1.7 (30)	37% (130)	25% (113)	.1 (129)	10% (133)	2 (91)

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.43 #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36 #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05 #38
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 23% #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8 #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1 #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9 #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 12.43 Vanderbilt: -10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 17.8 Vanderbilt: -13.7

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -10.105 #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08 #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21 #124
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7 #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Missouri Scoring
Offense: 32.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 36.3
Defense: 20.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.5

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Missouri 39
Vanderbilt 14

Total Points: 52

Based on Last 4 Games
Vanderbilt 22
Missouri 22

Total Points: 44

Based on Entire Season
Missouri 34
Vanderbilt 23

Total Points: 57

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 27.7
Defense: 36.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 32

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/25	Vanderbilt	17	Missouri	10	Vanderbilt -3	Vanderbilt	52.5	Under
2024	09/21	Missouri	30	Vanderbilt	27	Missouri -17.5	Vanderbilt	52.0	Over
2023	09/30	Vanderbilt	21	Missouri	38	Missouri -14	Missouri	53.5	Over
2022	10/22	Missouri	17	Vanderbilt	14	Missouri -14	Vanderbilt	49.0	Under
2021	10/30	Vanderbilt	28	Missouri	37	Missouri -16	Vanderbilt	62.5	Over
2020	11/28	Missouri	41	Vanderbilt	0	Vanderbilt -2	Missouri	52.5	Under
2019	10/19	Vanderbilt	21	Missouri	14	Missouri -21	Vanderbilt	56.5	Under
2018	11/10	Missouri	33	Vanderbilt	28	Missouri -13.5	Vanderbilt	65.0	Under
2017	11/18	Vanderbilt	17	Missouri	45	Missouri -8.5	Missouri	65.0	Under
2016	11/12	Missouri	26	Vanderbilt	17	Missouri -1	Missouri	53.0	Under
2015	10/24	Vanderbilt	10	Missouri	3	Missouri -2	Vanderbilt	34.0	Under
2014	10/25	Missouri	24	Vanderbilt	14	Missouri -24	Vanderbilt	0
2013	10/05	Vanderbilt	28	Missouri	51	Vanderbilt -2.5	Missouri	0
2012	10/06	Missouri	15	Vanderbilt	19

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Vanderbilt	4	8	3 Overs
Missouri	10	5	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	6 - 7	2 - 5	4 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	7 - 6	2 - 4	5 - 2

(#14) MIZ at (#122) VAN

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MIZ	VAN
Power RatePwr	#14	#122
SP+SP+	#12	#113
Perf GradeGrade	#19	#129
OffenseOff	#14	#116
DefenseDef	#49	#126
Spec TeamsST	#67	#115
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#30	#57

Missouri Injury Report

Vanderbilt Injury Report

Missouri on Offense


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	VAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#14	#126
SuccessSuc	#26	#106
ExplosiveExp	#63	#113
PPAPPA	#21	#131
PowerPwr	#15	#124
SP+SP+	#11	#125
Pts POPPO	#22	#98
HavocHav	#24	#101

Missouri Run Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#53	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#48	#59
Run ExplRExp	#84	#122
PPAExp	#50	#119
Run BlockR Blk	#5	-
OL YdsOLY	#82	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#120	#49
TackleTak	-	#103

Missouri Pass Game


CategoryCat	MIZ Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#18	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	#13	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#42	#56
PPAExp	#18	#126
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#36	#124
F7 HavocF7	#46	#90
DB HavocDB	#16	#96

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MIZ Def
Perf GradePerf	#116	#49
SuccessSuc	#123	#19
ExplosiveExp	#13	#102
PPAPPA	#127	#47
PowerPwr	#122	#38
SP+SP+	#84	#23
Pts POPPO	#50	#81
HavocHav	#132	#19

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MIZ Def
Run GameRun	#104	#78
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#13
Run ExplRExp	#91	#97
PPAExp	#128	#33
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#17
Stuff RateStuff	#95	#14
TackleTak	-	#72

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	MIZ Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#56
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#30
Pass ExplPExl	#30	#58
PPAExp	#113	#46
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#122	#35
F7 HavocF7	#102	#11
DB HavocDB	#133	#64

Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'25 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions: Fair
Temp: 86° - Wind: 6 mph

Rematch from Week 5
Missouri 14.0 (53.5)
Missouri won at Vanderbilt this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Missouri beat Vanderbilt last year (30-27)
Missouri beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (38-21)
Missouri beat Vanderbilt in 2022 (17-14)

MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Brady Cook	243	367	66%	3302	21	6	9.0
Sam Horn	3	6	50%	54	1	1	9.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cody Schrader	276	1617	14	5.9	52
Brady Cook	113	319	8	2.8	25
Nathaniel Peat	76	317	3	4.2	19
Luther Burden III	8	38	0	4.8	20

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Luther Burden III	85	1205	9	14.2	56
Theo Wease	48	661	6	13.8	77
Mookie Cooper	36	447	0	12.4	41
Marquis Johnson	13	383	3	29.5	76

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4
Joseph Charleston	60	1	0	3	4
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3
Charles Hicks	53	11	2	2	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Darius Robinson	43	14	9	6	0
Johnny Walker	43	11	6	9	0
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)	22	4	4	3	0
Ty'Ron Hopper	55	6	3	6	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Kris Abrams-Draine	50	3	0	1	12
Daylan Carnell	51	6	3	8	7
Jaylon Carlies	64	5	2	2	4

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann	106	196	54%	1418	12	7	7.2
Ken Seals	106	179	59%	1218	11	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	96	370	4	3.9	27
Patrick Smith	79	327	2	4.1	40
Jayden McGowan	19	108	0	5.7	18
Walter Taylor	30	102	1	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Sheppard	47	684	8	14.6	85
London Humphreys	22	439	4	20.0	56
Jayden McGowan	36	383	0	10.6	50
Junior Sherrill	20	293	3	14.7	52

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Patterson	74	8	1	2	0
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	0	0	6
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Ethan Barr	54	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Clifton	30	8	6	4	1
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)	33	6	3	3	0
Kane Patterson	43	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	6
Trudell Berry	21	1	4
BJ Anderson	8	0	3