Missouri at Vanderbilt - 2023 Matchup Preview
Missouri logo   Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores  Vanderbilt logo
Saturday, September 30th 2023 (4:00 PM EDT)
Missouri -14 (53.5) (0)  Open: 0.0
Missouri 38 - Vanderbilt: 21  (SEC)

 
Tigers (11 - 2) (9 - 4 - 0)
Coach Eliah Drinkwitz (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (18 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.4 - 4.6 (#38)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
VAN 2nd straight Home Game
VAN is playing their 5th straight game
MIZ is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Missouri -25  (SP+ MIZ -31.5)
Projected Score: MIZ: 39 - VAN: 14 (53)
MIZ Win prob: 86% | Cover: 55%
MIZ Travel: 359 miles
Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (9 - 19)
Avg Score : 39 - 23 (44 - 21 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
'23 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Missouri's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 8/31 Missouri vs South Dakota-27.044.5W 35 - 10ON
Sat 9/9 Missouri vs Middle Tennessee-21.047.5W 23 - 19UN
Sat 9/16 Missouri vs Kansas State+3.548.0W 30 - 27OY
Sat 9/23 Missouri vs Memphis-6.552.0W 34 - 27OY
Sat 9/30 Missouri at Vanderbilt-14.053.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/7 Missouri vs LSU+6.063.5L 39 - 49ON
Sat 10/14 Missouri at Kentucky+1.550.5W 38 - 21OY
Sat 10/21 Missouri vs South Carolina-7.557.5W 34 - 12UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4 Missouri at Georgia+15.056.5L 21 - 30UY
Sat 11/11 Missouri vs Tennessee+1.058.5W 36 - 7UY
Sat 11/18 Missouri vs Florida-12.556.5W 33 - 31ON
Fri 11/24 Missouri at Arkansas-9.553.5W 48 - 14OY
Fri 12/29 Missouri vs Ohio State+4.051.0W 14 - 3UY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Missouri's Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/26 Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i-17.054.5W 35 - 28ON
Sat 9/2 Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M-35.053.5W 47 - 13ON
Sat 9/9 Vanderbilt at Wake Forest+9.555.0L 20 - 36ON
Sat 9/16 Vanderbilt at UNLV-4.556.5L 37 - 40ON
Sat 9/23 Vanderbilt vs Kentucky+13.550.0L 28 - 45ON
Sat 9/30 Vanderbilt vs Missouri+14.053.5L 21 - 38ON
Sat 10/7 Vanderbilt at Florida+18.051.0L 14 - 38ON
Sat 10/14 Vanderbilt vs Georgia+32.555.0L 20 - 37OY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28 Vanderbilt at Ole Miss+24.062.0L 7 - 33UN
Sat 11/4 Vanderbilt vs Auburn+12.550.0L 15 - 31UN
Sat 11/11 Vanderbilt at South Carolina+13.553.5L 6 - 47UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25 Vanderbilt at Tennessee+27.058.0L 24 - 48OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule
Important Stats (2022)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIZ.1641%30.241%2.8915641%2134.26.1538%18.937%39%3.863.71.51.8
VAN.1640%38.540%2.9816042%1873.73.3145%22.842%49%4.1446.11.31.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MIZ0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
VAN0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIZ Offense1330.217.540.6%4.261.5193701562134.151%48%41%41%17%.16
VAN Defense1222.821.145.5%4.141.8 - - - - - 48%52%42%49%15%.31
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MIZ Defense1318.91737.7%3.81.8 - - - - - 49%51%37%39%21%.15
VAN Offense1238.54440.3%3.731.3183471601874.356%43%40%42%18%.16

Additional Stats 2022
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Missouri1331:0518.540%50%7.863.71.51.872.7328.9
Vanderbilt1231:3617.537%38%5.346.11.31.84.71.4028.8
Run Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIZ Offense1351%41%37.9156.54.121.112.8970%13%1
VAN Defense1248%42% - - - - .083.2454%9%1.07
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MIZ Defense1349%37% - - - - .12.7267%14%1.14
VAN Offense1256%40%37.1159.94.313.12.9873%10%1

Pass Game Stats (2023)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIZ Offense1348%41%1930.1213.27.111.2139.251.634%33%.344%2
VAN Defense1252%49% - - - - - - 6.551.729%33%.495%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MIZ Defense1351%39% - - - - - - 11.221.634%28%.228%2
VAN Offense1243%42%16.728.8187.36.511.2226.291.733%27%.328%2.3

Missouri's Power Ratings
Missouri's Power Rating: 12.43  #14
Missouri's Offense Rating: 24.36  #15
Missouri's Defense Rating: 7.05  #38
2023 Talent Rating: 755.40  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 23%  #30
Missouri's 2023 Expected Record: 8.40 - 4.60
Missouri's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 17.8  #12
Missouri's Offense SP+ Rating: 37.1  #11
Missouri's Defense SP+ Rating: 19.9  #23

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89

Power Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 12.43   Vanderbilt: -10.105

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Missouri: 17.8   Vanderbilt: -13.7




Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -10.105  #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08  #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21  #124
2023 Talent Rating: 639.88  #58
Blue Chip Ratio: 7  #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7  #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1  #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7  #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 824.13
Average Power Five Talent: 738.21
Average FBS Talent: 573.89


Missouri Scoring
Offense: 30.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.5
Defense: 18.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 17

Missouri's 2023 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 9 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 8 - 5
Record on Road: 4 - 1
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 0 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 2 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Missouri 39
Vanderbilt 14

Projected Total Points: 53
Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 38.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 44
Defense: 22.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.1

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record at home: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 7 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 3 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/25Vanderbilt17Missouri10Vanderbilt -3Vanderbilt52.5Under
202409/21Missouri30Vanderbilt27Missouri -17.5Vanderbilt52.0Over
202309/30Vanderbilt21Missouri38Missouri -14Missouri53.5Over
202210/22Missouri17Vanderbilt14Missouri -14Vanderbilt49.0Under
202110/30Vanderbilt28Missouri37Missouri -16Vanderbilt62.5Over
202011/28Missouri41Vanderbilt0Vanderbilt -2Missouri52.5Under
201910/19Vanderbilt21Missouri14Missouri -21Vanderbilt56.5Under
201811/10Missouri33Vanderbilt28Missouri -13.5Vanderbilt65.0Under
201711/18Vanderbilt17Missouri45Missouri -8.5Missouri65.0Under
201611/12Missouri26Vanderbilt17Missouri -1Missouri53.0Under
201510/24Vanderbilt10Missouri3Missouri -2Vanderbilt34.0Under
201410/25Missouri24Vanderbilt14Missouri -24Vanderbilt0
201310/05Vanderbilt28Missouri51Vanderbilt -2.5Missouri0
201210/06Missouri15Vanderbilt19
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Vanderbilt483 Overs
Missouri1058 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams9 - 56 - 72 - 54 - 2
Road Teams5 - 97 - 62 - 45 - 2

(#14) MIZ at (#122) VAN
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMIZVAN
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #14 #122
SP+SP+ #12 #113
Perf GradeGrade #19 #129
OffenseOff #14 #116
DefenseDef #49 #126
Spec TeamsST #67 #115
TalentTal #24 #58
Blue ChipsBC% #30 #57
Missouri on Offense
CategoryCat
MIZ OffVAN Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #14 #126
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #15 #124
SP+SP+ #11 #125
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Missouri Run Game
CategoryCat
MIZ OffVAN Def
Run GameRun #53 #105
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #5 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #103
Missouri Pass Game
CategoryCat
MIZ OffVAN Def
Pass GamePass #18 #121
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk #36 #124
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Vanderbilt on Offense
CategoryCatVAN OffMIZ Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerf #116 #49
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwr #122 #38
SP+SP+ #84 #23
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Vanderbilt Run Game
CategoryCat
VAN OffMIZ Def
Run GameRun #104 #78
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR Blk #112 -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak -  #72
Vanderbilt Pass Game
CategoryCatVAN OffMIZ Def
Pass GamePass #103 #56
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP Blk #122 #35
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'23 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

MIZ 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg P4
'23 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Vanderbilt Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Rematch from Week 5
Missouri 14.0 (53.5)
Missouri won at Vanderbilt this year (38-21)

Previous Matchups
Vanderbilt beat Missouri last year (17-10)
Missouri beat Vanderbilt in 2024 (30-27)
Missouri beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (38-21)

  
MIZ's OC Kirby Moore (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Brady Cook24336766%33022169.0
Sam Horn3650%54119.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Cody Schrader2761617145.952
Brady Cook11331982.825
Nathaniel Peat7631734.219
Luther Burden III83804.820
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Luther Burden III851205914.256
Theo Wease48661613.877
Mookie Cooper36447012.441
Marquis Johnson13383329.576

View Missouri's Full Roster

MIZ's DC Blake Baker (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylon Carlies645224
Joseph Charleston601034
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Charles Hicks5311221
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Darius Robinson4314960
Johnny Walker4311690
Nyles Gaddy (Tr)224430
Ty'Ron Hopper556363
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kris Abrams-Draine5030112
Daylan Carnell516387
Jaylon Carlies645224

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
AJ Swann10619654%14181277.2
Ken Seals10617959%12181146.8
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Sedrick Alexander9637043.927
Patrick Smith7932724.140
Jayden McGowan1910805.718
Walter Taylor3010213.418
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Will Sheppard47684814.685
London Humphreys22439420.056
Jayden McGowan36383010.650
Junior Sherrill20293314.752

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Langston Patterson748120
Jaylen Mahoney591006
CJ Taylor558313
Ethan Barr543111
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nate Clifton308641
CJ Taylor558313
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)336330
Kane Patterson436201
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jaylen Mahoney591006
Trudell Berry211004
BJ Anderson80003