Vanderbilt at UNLV - 2023 Matchup Preview

Saturday, September 16th 2023 (7:00 PM EDT)
Vanderbilt -4.5 (56.5) (0) Open: 0.0
UNLV 40 - Vanderbilt: 37

Commodores (2 - 10) (2 - 10 - 0)
Coach Clark Lea (7 - 17)
Avg Score : 23 - 36 (18 - 40 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.8 - 9.2 (#130)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

VAN 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: UNLV -15 (SP+ UNLV -16)
Projected Score: VAN: 21 - UNLV: 36 (58)
VAN Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
VAN Travel: 1575 miles, 2 hrs ahead

Rebels (9 - 5) (10 - 4 - 0)
Coach Barry Odom (2 - 1)
Avg Score : 34 - 29 (34 - 27 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.7 - 6.3 (#48)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
VAN Players
UNLV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Vanderbilt's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/26	Vanderbilt vs Hawai'i	-17.0	54.5	W 35 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/2	Vanderbilt vs Alabama A&M	-35.0	53.5	W 47 - 13	O	N
Sat 9/9	Vanderbilt at Wake Forest	+9.5	55.0	L 20 - 36	O	N
Sat 9/16	Vanderbilt at UNLV	-4.5	56.5	L 37 - 40	O	N
Sat 9/23	Vanderbilt vs Kentucky	+13.5	50.0	L 28 - 45	O	N
Sat 9/30	Vanderbilt vs Missouri	+14.0	53.5	L 21 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/7	Vanderbilt at Florida	+18.0	51.0	L 14 - 38	O	N
Sat 10/14	Vanderbilt vs Georgia	+32.5	55.0	L 20 - 37	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	Vanderbilt at Ole Miss	+24.0	62.0	L 7 - 33	U	N
Sat 11/4	Vanderbilt vs Auburn	+12.5	50.0	L 15 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/11	Vanderbilt at South Carolina	+13.5	53.5	L 6 - 47	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/25	Vanderbilt at Tennessee	+27.0	58.0	L 24 - 48	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Vanderbilt's Schedule

UNLV's 2023 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	UNLV vs Bryant	-16.5	66.0	W 44 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/9	UNLV at Michigan	+38.0	57.5	L 7 - 35	U	Y
Sat 9/16	UNLV vs Vanderbilt	+4.5	56.5	W 40 - 37	O	Y
Sat 9/23	UNLV at UTEP	+1.0	49.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 9/30	UNLV vs Hawai'i	-10.5	58.5	W 44 - 20	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/14	UNLV at Nevada	-7.5	51.5	W 45 - 27	O	Y
Sat 10/21	UNLV vs Colorado State	-6.5	60.0	W 25 - 23	U	N
Sat 10/28	UNLV at Fresno State	+10.5	56.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/4	UNLV at New Mexico	-10.0	61.0	W 56 - 14	O	Y
Fri 11/10	UNLV vs Wyoming	-2.5	48.5	W 34 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/18	UNLV at Air Force	+2.5	46.5	W 31 - 27	O	Y
Sat 11/25	UNLV vs San José State	-3.5	58.5	L 31 - 37	O	N
Sat 12/2	UNLV vs Boise State	+2.5	58.0	L 20 - 44	O	N
Tue 12/26	UNLV vs Kansas	+8.0	64.5	L 36 - 49	O	N

Important Stats (2023)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#127 (.05)	36% (123)	22.8	37% (124)	2.92 (103)	95	37% (109)	223	4.09 (50)	#131 (.33)	45% (106)	36.2	42% (59)	48% (131)	4.11 (98)	42.5	1.7	1.3
UNLV	#38 (.27)	43% (58)	34.4	40% (101)	3.17 (58)	174	46% (28)	239	4.19 (40)	#115 (.26)	42% (65)	28.6	41% (52)	43% (93)	4.08 (94)	61.8	1.4	1.9

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
VAN	#76 (.17)	42% (75)		42% (93)	2.8 (105)	129	43% (53)	166	4.25 (34)	#111 (.25)	47% (121)		46% (96)	48% (125)	4.22 (109)	48.3	0.5	1.1
UNLV	#56 (.21)	42% (84)		43% (83)	3.36 (16)	248	40% (90)	173	4.26 (33)	#34 (.11)	37% (14)		40% (39)	36% (14)	4.05 (97)	49.2	0.6	1.6

Overall Stats 2023

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Offense	12	22.8	18	36.4%	4.09	1.7	17	319	95	223	3.3	42%	56%	37%	37%	22%	.05
UNLV Defense	14	28.6	27	41.7%	4.08	1.9	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	41%	43%	13%	.26

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
VAN Defense	12	36.2	40.3	44.8%	4.11	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	47%	52%	42%	48%	15%	.33
UNLV Offense	14	34.4	34	42.5%	4.19	1.4	20	413	174	239	4.5	54%	45%	40%	46%	13%	.27

Additional Stats 2023

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Vanderbilt	12	28:46	17	33%	30%	4.9	42.5	1.7	1.3	5.4	1.8	3	29.5
UNLV	14	28:06	20.3	49%	45%	6.9	61.8	1.4	1.9	4	1.4	1	33.1

Run Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Offense	12	42% (116)	37% (124)	29.2	95.3	3.3	10 (124)	-.01 (128)	2.92 (103)	74% (63)	12% (102)	0.96 (91)
UNLV Defense	14	53% (109)	41% (52)	-	-	-	-	.11 (50)	3.1 (69)	78% (101)	8% (113)	0.95 (42)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
VAN Defense	12	47% (28)	42% (59)	-	-	-	-	.25 (119)	3.08 (61)	72% (60)	9% (90)	1.17 (122)
UNLV Offense	14	54% (36)	40% (101)	38.4	173.5	4.5	39 (2)	.2 (40)	3.17 (58)	76% (43)	8% (29)	1.18 (3)

Pass Game Stats (2023)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Offense	12	56% (21)	37% (109)	18.1	32.5	223.3	6.9	12.4	23 (51)	13 (97)	.14 (113)	1.7 (30)	37% (130)	25% (113)	.1 (129)	10% (133)	2 (91)
UNLV Defense	14	46% (24)	43% (93)	-	-	-	-	-	-	17 (3)	.48 (133)	1.9 (133)	33% (52)	29% (55)	.32 (72)	4% (128)	2.1 (69)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
VAN Defense	12	52% (100)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	12 (37)	.43 (126)	1.6 (56)	31% (88)	37% (126)	.46 (123)	5% (96)	1.9 (25)
UNLV Offense	14	45% (96)	46% (28)	17.9	28.9	239.2	8.3	13.3	17 (85)	12 (85)	.37 (30)	1.6 (56)	32% (81)	33% (43)	.4 (44)	5% (42)	2.1 (59)

Vanderbilt's Power Ratings
Vanderbilt's Power Rating: -11.51 #122
Vanderbilt's Offense Rating: 10.08 #122
Vanderbilt's Defense Rating: 17.21 #124
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 7% #57
Vanderbilt's 2023 Expected Record: 2.80 - 9.20
Vanderbilt's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: -13.7 #113
Vanderbilt's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.1 #84
Vanderbilt's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #125

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -11.51 UNLV: 2.545

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Vanderbilt: -13.7 UNLV: 2.0

UNLV's Power Ratings
UNLV's Power Rating: 2.545 #76
UNLV's Offense Rating: 18.43 #52
UNLV's Defense Rating: 10.09 #73
2023 Talent Rating: 482.00 #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #75
UNLV's 2023 Expected Record: 7.70 - 6.30
UNLV's 2023 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.0 #60
UNLV's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #35
UNLV's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #98

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 482
Average Power Five Talent: 482
Average FBS Talent: 482

Vanderbilt Scoring
Offense: 22.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 18
Defense: 36.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 40.3

Vanderbilt's 2023 Record
Record: 2 - 10
Record vs Spread: 2 - 10 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 3
Record on Road: 0 - 6
Record vs Spread on Road: 1 - 5 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 3 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
UNLV 36
Vanderbilt 21

Total Points: 58

Based on Last 4 Games
UNLV 33
Vanderbilt 23

Total Points: 57

Based on Entire Season
UNLV 36
Vanderbilt 24

Total Points: 60

UNLV Scoring
Offense: 34.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 28.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 27

UNLV's 2023 Record
Record: 9 - 5
Record vs Spread: 10 - 4 - 0
Over/Under Record: 9 - 5
Record at home: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/16	UNLV	40	Vanderbilt	37	Vanderbilt -4.5	UNLV	56.5	Over
2019	10/12	Vanderbilt	10	UNLV	34	Vanderbilt -16.5	UNLV	57.5	Under

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
UNLV	2	2	1 Overs
Vanderbilt	0	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0

(#122) VAN at (#76) UNLV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	VAN	UNLV
Power RatePwr	#122	#76
SP+SP+	#113	#60
Perf GradeGrade	#129	#78
OffenseOff	#116	#60
DefenseDef	#126	#110
Spec TeamsST	#115	#99
TalentTal	#1	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	#57	#75

Vanderbilt Injury Report

UNLV Injury Report

Vanderbilt on Offense


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UNLV Def
Perf GradePerf	#116	#110
SuccessSuc	#123	#65
ExplosiveExp	#13	#119
PPAPPA	#127	#115
PowerPwr	#122	#73
SP+SP+	#84	#98
Pts POPPO	#50	#94
HavocHav	#132	#125

Vanderbilt Run Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UNLV Def
Run GameRun	#104	#88
Run SuccessRSuc	#124	#52
Run ExplRExp	#91	#42
PPAExp	#128	#50
Run BlockR Blk	#112	-
OL YdsOLY	#103	#69
Stuff RateStuff	#95	#115
TackleTak	-	#61

Vanderbilt Pass Game


CategoryCat	VAN Off	UNLV Def
Pass GamePass	#103	#124
Pass SuccessPSuc	#109	#93
Pass ExplPExl	#30	#133
PPAExp	#113	#133
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#122	#39
F7 HavocF7	#102	#113
DB HavocDB	#133	#128

UNLV on Offense


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	VAN Def
Perf GradePerf	#60	#126
SuccessSuc	#58	#106
ExplosiveExp	#10	#113
PPAPPA	#38	#131
PowerPwr	#52	#124
SP+SP+	#35	#125
Pts POPPO	#40	#98
HavocHav	#25	#101

UNLV Run Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	VAN Def
Run GameRun	#72	#105
Run SuccessRSuc	#101	#59
Run ExplRExp	#3	#122
PPAExp	#40	#119
Run BlockR Blk	#80	-
OL YdsOLY	#58	#61
Stuff RateStuff	#26	#49
TackleTak	-	#103

UNLV Pass Game


CategoryCat	UNLV Off	VAN Def
Pass GamePass	#98	#121
Pass SuccessPSuc	#28	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#56	#56
PPAExp	#30	#126
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#43	#124
F7 HavocF7	#29	#90
DB HavocDB	#42	#96

Program Comparison
UNLV 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'25 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

VAN 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'25 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Allegiant Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 3
Vanderbilt 4.5 (56.5)
UNLV won vs Vanderbilt this year (40-37)

Previous Matchups
UNLV beat Vanderbilt in 2023 (40-37)

VAN's OC Joey Lynch (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
AJ Swann	106	196	54%	1418	12	7	7.2
Ken Seals	106	179	59%	1218	11	4	6.8

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Sedrick Alexander	96	370	4	3.9	27
Patrick Smith	79	327	2	4.1	40
Jayden McGowan	19	108	0	5.7	18
Walter Taylor	30	102	1	3.4	18

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Will Sheppard	47	684	8	14.6	85
London Humphreys	22	439	4	20.0	56
Jayden McGowan	36	383	0	10.6	50
Junior Sherrill	20	293	3	14.7	52

View Vanderbilt's Full Roster

VAN's DC Nick Howell (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Langston Patterson	74	8	1	2	0
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	0	0	6
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Ethan Barr	54	3	1	1	1

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Nate Clifton	30	8	6	4	1
CJ Taylor	55	8	3	1	3
Aeneas DiCosmo (Tr)	33	6	3	3	0
Kane Patterson	43	6	2	0	1

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
Jaylen Mahoney	59	1	6
Trudell Berry	21	1	4
BJ Anderson	8	0	3

UNLV's OC Brennan Marion (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Jayden Maiava	224	353	64%	3085	17	10	8.7
Doug Brumfield	26	50	52%	252	0	2	5.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Vincent Davis (Tr)	145	760	7	5.2	69
Jai'Den Thomas	108	503	12	4.7	46
Donavyn Lester	95	455	9	4.8	66
Jayden Maiava	73	277	3	3.8	34

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ricky White	88	1483	8	16.9	82
Jacob De Jesus	60	606	2	10.1	48
Senika McKie	23	342	1	14.9	50
Kaleo Ballungay	18	314	2	17.4	84

View UNLV's Full Roster

UNLV's DC Michael Scherer (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Woodard (Tr)	97	9	3	2	2
Marsel McDuffie	78	2	1	0	2
Johnathan Baldwin	65	3	1	0	4
Fred Thompkins	54	4	1	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Alex Whitmore	30	6	3	3	0
Jackson Woodard (Tr)	97	9	3	2	2
Cooper Webb	26	4	2	1	0
Cameron Oliver	50	6	2	1	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Ricky Johnson	33	3	0	7
Johnathan Baldwin	65	3	1	4
Jett Elad	52	3	0	4