Ole Miss at Alabama - 2021 Matchup Preview

Saturday, October 2nd 2021 (3:30 PM EDT)
Alabama -15 (79.5)
Alabama 42 - Ole Miss: 21 (SEC)

Rebels (10 - 3) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach Lane Kiffin (8 - 5)
Avg Score : 37 - 21 (34 - 28 on Road)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

ALA 2nd straight Home Game
MISS coming off BYE
ALA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -8 (SP+ ALA -11)
Projected Score: MISS: 25 - ALA: 29 (54)
ALA Win prob: 85% | Cover: 46%
MISS Travel: 139 miles

Crimson Tide (13 - 2) (8 - 7 - 0)
Coach Nick Saban (167 - 23)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
'21 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MISS Players
ALA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Ole Miss's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Mon 9/6	Ole Miss vs Louisville	-9.0	74.5	W 43 - 24	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Ole Miss vs Austin Peay	-37.0	69.5	W 54 - 17	O	N
Sat 9/18	Ole Miss vs Tulane	-14.0	77.0	W 61 - 21	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/2	Ole Miss at Alabama	+15.0	79.5	L 21 - 42	U	N
Sat 10/9	Ole Miss vs Arkansas	-5.0	67.0	W 52 - 51	O	N
Sat 10/16	Ole Miss at Tennessee	-1.0	82.0	W 31 - 26	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Ole Miss vs LSU	-9.0	76.5	W 31 - 17	U	Y
Sat 10/30	Ole Miss at Auburn	+3.0	67.5	L 20 - 31	U	N
Sat 11/6	Ole Miss vs Liberty	-7.5	66.5	W 27 - 14	U	Y
Sat 11/13	Ole Miss vs Texas A&M	+1.0	57.5	W 29 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt	-35.5	66.5	W 31 - 17	U	N
Thu 11/25	Ole Miss at Mississippi State	+2.5	65.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y
Sat 1/1	Ole Miss vs Baylor	-1.0	60.5	L 7 - 21	U	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ole Miss's Schedule

Alabama's 2021 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/4	Alabama vs Miami	-19.5	61.5	W 44 - 13	U	Y
Sat 9/11	Alabama vs Mercer	-54.0	60.5	W 48 - 14	O	N
Sat 9/18	Alabama at Florida	-14.0	59.5	W 31 - 29	O	N
Sat 9/25	Alabama vs Southern Miss	-45.0	57.5	W 63 - 14	O	Y
Sat 10/2	Alabama vs Ole Miss	-15.0	79.5	W 42 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/9	Alabama at Texas A&M	-18.5	50.5	L 38 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/16	Alabama at Mississippi State	-17.5	59.5	W 49 - 9	U	Y
Sat 10/23	Alabama vs Tennessee	-24.5	68.0	W 52 - 24	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/6	Alabama vs LSU	-29.5	66.5	W 20 - 14	U	N
Sat 11/13	Alabama vs New Mexico State	-50.0	67.0	W 59 - 3	U	Y
Sat 11/20	Alabama vs Arkansas	-20.5	58.5	W 42 - 35	O	N
Sat 11/27	Alabama at Auburn	-21.0	57.5	W 24 - 22	U	N
Sat 12/4	Alabama vs Georgia	+6.0	48.5	W 41 - 24	O	Y
Fri 12/31	Alabama vs Cincinnati	-13.0	57.5	W 27 - 6	U	Y
Mon 1/10	Alabama vs Georgia	+3.0	53.5	L 18 - 33	U	N

Important Stats (2020)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS	.31	48%	36.9	45%	2.92	212	52%	345	4.21	.33	51%	21.1	53%	49%	4.3	51.6	1.8	1.3
ALA	.49	58%	29.5	54%	3.29	183	61%	358	5.18	.12	38%	19.2	37%	38%	2.88	48.1	0.9	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MISS		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
ALA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2020

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Offense	10	36.9	34.3	47.9%	4.21	1.8	28	557	212	345	4.6	55%	45%	45%	52%	14%	.31
ALA Defense	13	19.2	11.4	37.5%	2.88	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	47%	53%	37%	38%	18%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MISS Defense	10	21.1	27.8	50.6%	4.3	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	49%	51%	53%	49%	13%	.33
ALA Offense	13	29.5	39.3	57.9%	5.18	0.9	28	541	183	358	5	47%	53%	54%	61%	11%	.49

Additional Stats 2020

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Ole Miss	10	27:50	27.6	50%	67%	6	51.6	1.8	1.3	4.7	1.6	0	28.1
Alabama	13	30:48	28.1	60%	67%	6	48.1	0.9	1.7	5.5	2.1	4	30

Run Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Offense	10	55%	45%	46.1	211.6	4.6	23	.21	2.92	65%	10%	1.12
ALA Defense	13	47%	37%	-	-	-	-	.07	2.63	71%	11%	1.03

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MISS Defense	10	49%	53%	-	-	-	-	.29	3.27	74%	8%	0.98
ALA Offense	13	47%	54%	36.5	182.9	5	37	.23	3.29	81%	7%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2021)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Offense	10	45%	52%	23.8	33.5	345	10.3	14.5	30	14	.43	1.7	27%	42%	.67	4%	2.2
ALA Defense	13	53%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	12	.16	1.7	34%	32%	.3	8%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MISS Defense	10	51%	49%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.36	1.4	27%	39%	.49	6%	1.9
ALA Offense	13	53%	61%	24.9	32.7	358.2	11	14.4	42	4	.71	1.6	22%	48%	.87	4%	2.3

Ole Miss's Power Ratings
Ole Miss's Power Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Offense Rating: NR
Ole Miss's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #27
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Ole Miss's 2021 Expected Record: -
Ole Miss's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8 #17
Ole Miss's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.8 #17
Ole Miss's Defense SP+ Rating: 22.4 #36

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: Alabama: 15.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ole Miss: 14.8 Alabama: 26.0

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 15.5 NR
Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2021 Talent Rating: #1
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Alabama's 2021 Expected Record: -
Alabama's 2021 Overall SP+ Rating: 26.0 #3
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 40.9 #4
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 15.6 #9

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Ole Miss Scoring
Offense: 36.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 34.3
Defense: 21.1 PPG
Defense on Road: 27.8

Ole Miss's 2021 Record
Record: 10 - 3
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 10
Record on Road: 2 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Alabama 29
Ole Miss 25

Projected Total Points: 54

Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2021 Record
Record: 13 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2023	09/23	Alabama	24	Ole Miss	10	Alabama -7	Alabama	56.0	Under
2022	11/12	Ole Miss	24	Alabama	30	Alabama -11	Ole Miss	65.5	Under
2021	10/02	Alabama	42	Ole Miss	21	Alabama -15	Alabama	79.5	Under
2020	10/10	Ole Miss	48	Alabama	63	Alabama -24	Ole Miss	74.0	Over
2019	09/28	Alabama	59	Ole Miss	31	Alabama -37.5	Ole Miss	62.5	Over
2018	09/15	Ole Miss	7	Alabama	62	Alabama -22.5	Alabama	71.5	Under
2017	09/30	Alabama	66	Ole Miss	3	Alabama -30	Alabama	56.0	Over
2016	09/17	Ole Miss	43	Alabama	48	Alabama -9.5	Ole Miss	53.0	Over
2015	09/19	Alabama	37	Ole Miss	43	Alabama -8.5	Ole Miss	52.0	Over
2014	10/04	Ole Miss	23	Alabama	17	Alabama -4.5	Ole Miss	0
2013	09/28	Alabama	25	Ole Miss	0	Alabama -16	Alabama	0
2012	09/29	Alabama	33	Ole Miss	14
2011	10/15	Ole Miss	7	Alabama	52
2010	10/16	Alabama	23	Ole Miss	10
2009	10/10	Ole Miss	3	Alabama	22
2008	10/18	Alabama	24	Ole Miss	20
2007	10/13	Ole Miss	24	Alabama	27
2006	10/14	Alabama	26	Ole Miss	23
2005	10/15	Ole Miss	10	Alabama	13
2004	09/11	Alabama	28	Ole Miss	7
2003	10/18	Ole Miss	43	Alabama	28
2002	10/19	Alabama	42	Ole Miss	7
2001	10/13	Ole Miss	27	Alabama	24
2000	10/13	Alabama	45	Ole Miss	7

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Alabama	20	5	5 Overs
Ole Miss	4	6	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	15 - 9	8 - 3	4 - 2	4 - 1
Road Teams	9 - 15	3 - 8	1 - 4	2 - 4

(#) MISS at (#) ALA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MISS	ALA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#3
Perf GradeGrade	#65	#6
OffenseOff	#51	#15
DefenseDef	#77	#12
Spec TeamsST	#58	#72
TalentTal	#27	#1
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Ole Miss Injury Report

Alabama Injury Report

Ole Miss on Offense


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#51	#12
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#9
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Ole Miss Run Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
Run GameRun	#30	#4
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#72	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#3

Ole Miss Pass Game


CategoryCat	MISS Off	ALA Def
Pass GamePass	#27	#40
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	#41	#37
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	#15	#77
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#4	#36
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
Run GameRun	#26	#103
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	#54	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	#84

Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	ALA Off	MISS Def
Pass GamePass	#3	#37
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	#80	#43
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFB Elites
'21 Profile: Remains CFB Elites

MISS 5 Year Profile: Improving Average P4
'21 Profile: Up to CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Alabama -15.0 (79.5)
Alabama won vs Ole Miss this year (42-21)

Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Ole Miss in 2023 (24-10)

MISS's OC Jeff Lebby (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Ole Miss's Full Roster

MISS's DC D. J. Durkin (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

ALA's OC Bill O'Brien (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Pete Golding (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD